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February 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes March 10th

Enjay

Member
Feb 18, 2009
2,799
2,112
1,005
The Xbox One is only doing so good right now because no one can find a PlayStation 4.
 

donny2112

Member
Apr 18, 2005
18,797
1
0
NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions - Feb-2014

1. PS4 - 232K
2. XB1 - 138K
3. 3DS - 105K
4. 360 - 60K
5. PS3 - 58K
6. WIU - 55K


Anyone (preferrably in the know) have a problem with 155K for 3DS for predictions this month?
 

SwiftDeath

Member
May 31, 2013
23,627
0
0
I am not looking forward to this months results :(

Donny I'm not in the know but 155K was the best for 3DS I could come up with in the NPD thread on what was given
 

ascii42

Member
Mar 27, 2007
14,340
2
1,165
Georgia
Vita+3DS was between 170k and 175k, right? Vita was hinted to be around 24k, I believe. If that's the case, maybe 150k would be more accurate.

edit: nevermind
 

DaBoss

Member
Dec 5, 2012
20,948
2
0
Toronto
I wasn't reading the thread when it occurred, but it was something about Vita being 24K and people just subtracted that from the 3DS + Vita range that cream gave us. I think it was Cosmic who hinted at 24K due to people guessing 12K.

The range was "175k < 3ds + vita < 180k".
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
Jun 22, 2004
9,164
5
1,485
cgmr.net
NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions - Feb-2014

1. PS4 - 232K
2. XB1 - 138K
3. 3DS - 105K
4. 360 - 60K
5. PS3 - 58K
6. WIU - 55K


Anyone (preferrably in the know) have a problem with 155K for 3DS for predictions this month?
That's within 5K, I believe. Does run it with that and ±5 and see if you get different results.
 

donny2112

Member
Apr 18, 2005
18,797
1
0
That's within 5K, I believe. Does run it with that and ±5 and see if you get different results.

No change in results order, so that's good. Want to be using the right number, too, though. :)

Using 155K for 3DS ...

NeoGAF Prediction Results - February 2014

Units

1. kyser73 - 184,000
2. Loris146 - 185,000
3. Dynopia - 210,000
4. Jallopy - 225,000
5. Bruno MB - 229,000
6. Canis lupus - 240,000
7. Duxxy3 - 245,000
7. Syphon Filter - 245,000
9. DR3AM - 250,000
9. HalfBaked - 250,000
11. astrogamer - 255,000
12. digoutyoursoul - 259,000
13. michaelius - 261,000
14. Redmoon - 263,000
15. Ombala - 266,000
16. skedar897 - 267,000
17. dolemite - 270,000
18. Road - 272,000
19. doicare - 274,000
20. archnemesis - 275,000
21. chubigans - 277,000
22. Roboleon - 279,000
23. Psycho_Mantis - 280,000
24. Ty4on - 285,000
25. Catchpenny - 287,000
26. BlackBuzzard - 288,000
26. Hammer24 - 288,000
26. daegan - 288,000
29. LicenceToK1ll - 290,000
29. RamzaIsCool - 290,000
29. donny2112 - 290,000
32. LOCK - 292,000
33. Madao - 294,000
34. Game Guru - 295,000
34. Guymelef - 295,000
34. bakman21 - 295,000
37. sacrificengineer - 299,000
38. CorporateClown - 302,000
39. baekshi - 304,000
40. shinra-bansho - 306,000
41. Into - 309,000
42. Elios83 - 310,000
42. Kriken - 310,000
42. Oddduck - 310,000
45. Zero-Crescent - 311,000
46. pieatorium - 314,000
47. FusionCode - 315,000
47. SwiftDeath - 315,000
47. Zok310 - 315,000
50. chadskin - 319,000
51. prag16 - 320,000
52. beast786 - 322,000
53. airmangataosenai - 324,000
54. rokkerkory - 325,000
55. Chobel - 327,000
55. Graphics Horse - 327,000
57. CMojicaAce - 330,000
57. Jamix012 - 330,000
57. slapnuts - 330,000
60. FiggyCal - 331,000
60. Gbpackers31 - 331,000
62. andy_lhc - 332,000
63. GAF_Agg - 332,100
64. ascii42 - 334,000
64. manny10032 - 334,000
66. Dedication Through Light - 336,000
66. Zuhzuhzombie!! - 336,000
68. Tsundere - 338,000
69. Asd202 - 340,000
69. Culex - 340,000
69. Finalizer - 340,000
69. TechnicPuppet - 340,000
73. kswiston - 342,000
74. Mass Effect - 343,000
75. samus4ever - 344,000
76. BlackJace - 345,000
76. FourMyle - 345,000
76. Ishan - 345,000
76. allan-bh - 345,000
76. confuziz - 345,000
81. noobie - 347,000
81. strangedopamine - 347,000
83. twinturbo2 - 348,000
84. anexanhume - 349,000
85. Chaostar - 350,000
85. MasterSheen - 350,000
85. sensi97 - 350,000
88. Orteip490 - 351,000
88. vinnygambini - 351,000
90. Jonsoncao - 354,000
90. Radec - 354,000
90. Tratorn - 354,000
93. Little Kuma - 365,000
93. gtj1092 - 365,000
95. pitseleh - 370,000
96. AngryMoth - 372,000
96. Aquamarine - 372,000
98. Randolph Freelander - 375,000
98. jayu26 - 375,000
98. travisbickle - 375,000
101. Pachter - 377,500
102. theprodigy - 378,000
103. TheRealTalker - 379,000
104. DrWong - 380,000
104. Nemo - 380,000
104. PreyingShark - 380,000
107. Megadragon15 - 382,000
108. Anth0ny - 383,000
109. Lexxus - 385,000
110. mutatedwombat - 386,000
111. S&#9488;mon - 390,000
111. TheRefresher - 390,000
111. jvm - 390,000
114. Darksol - 391,000
115. GhaleonEB - 393,000
116. DaSorcerer7 - 394,000
116. Wartari - 394,000
118. 1st Course - 395,000
118. Hexa - 395,000
118. bequietdrive - 395,000
118. coldone - 395,000
122. Kiyo - 397,000
122. Paskil - 397,000
124. Prototype Viktor - 398,000
125. damisa - 400,000
126. Maxxan - 401,000
127. ambientmystic - 403,000
128. sjagolinzer - 404,000
129. 1.21Gigawatts - 405,000
129. mejin - 405,000
131. BrokenIcarus - 409,000
132. Goldmund - 410,000
133. famousmortimer - 414,000
134. Bgamer90 - 415,000
135. mug - 420,000
136. Krakn3Dfx - 422,000
137. DaBoss - 425,000
137. Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule - 425,000
137. Darkologia - 425,000
140. Arondight - 427,000
140. LordOcidax - 427,000
142. AniHawk - 428,000
143. GamerJM - 439,000
144. Delusibeta - 447,000
145. Melkr_ - 448,000
146. Bundy - 468,000
146. fasTRapid - 468,000
148. TheDrowningMan - 471,000
149. Codeblew - 474,000
150. Apophis2036 - 485,000
150. HocusPocus - 485,000
152. Heshinsi - 497,000
153. Black Republican - 499,000
154. BuzzJive - 501,000
155. Gianni Merryman - 515,000
156. N.Domixis - 574,000


Points
Code:
     February 2014                   Overall 2014 Top (2/2)
01.  kyser73                108.78   BuzzJive               130.04
02.  Loris146                92.10   Road                   129.21
03.  Canis lupus             89.89   famousmortimer         127.56
04.  Dynopia                 89.69   Jamix012               116.19
05.  Jallopy                 88.01   1st Course             116.06
06.  digoutyoursoul          83.54   Jallopy                115.97
07.  Bruno MB                83.28   Bruno MB               115.48
08.  Redmoon                 82.62   Graphics Horse         115.20
09.  Road                    82.57   doicare                115.06
10.  Game Guru               81.30   Zero-Crescent          113.77
11.  Psycho_Mantis           80.93   Goldmund               111.87
12.  Hammer24                79.98   allan-bh               111.52
13.  Syphon Filter           79.82   Chaostar               110.75
14.  sacrificengineer        78.64   Chobel                 109.64
15.  Duxxy3                  77.53   kyser73                108.78
16.  slapnuts                77.42   SwiftDeath             108.71
17.  Elios83                 77.01   theprodigy             108.51
18.  CMojicaAce              76.63   mejin                  107.04
19.  daegan                  76.39   Megadragon15           106.46
20.  TechnicPuppet           76.26   DrWong                 106.43
21.  FourMyle                75.51   Zok310                 105.69
22.  Chaostar                75.48   FusionCode             104.38
23.  Zuhzuhzombie!!          75.33   astrogamer             103.75
24.  Asd202                  75.15   sacrificengineer       103.46
25.  HalfBaked               74.88   Gbpackers31            102.37
26.  kswiston                74.61   DaSorcerer7            102.36
27.  DR3AM                   74.52   BlackBuzzard           101.31
28.  Ishan                   74.20   MasterSheen            100.76
29.  michaelius              73.55   Aquamarine             100.72
30.  doicare                 73.13   donny2112              100.18
31.  dolemite                72.56   confuziz                99.45
32.  archnemesis             71.87   Jonsoncao               99.28
33.  Megadragon15            71.33   Lexxus                  96.61
34.  chubigans               71.17   RamzaIsCool             95.71
35.  donny2112               70.74   Canis lupus             95.60
36.  S&#9488;mon                   70.61   Hammer24                95.57
37.  DaSorcerer7             70.53   shinra-bansho           95.48
38.  astrogamer              70.43   prag16                  95.23
39.  gtj1092                 70.40   pieatorium              95.09
40.  Kiyo                    70.23   dolemite                94.89
41.  Ombala                  70.20   Tratorn                 94.55
42.  BlackBuzzard            70.01   Nemo                    94.33
43.  Catchpenny              69.65   kswiston                94.17
44.  Guymelef                69.24   Asd202                  93.75
45.  Culex                   69.04   Orteip490               93.51
46.  LicenceToK1ll           69.04   gtj1092                 93.33
47.  Zok310                  68.82   Duxxy3                  92.75
48.  CorporateClown          68.73   BlackJace               92.44
49.  Prototype Viktor        68.61   Pachter                 92.29
50.  Madao                   68.38   Loris146                92.10

Congratulations, kyser73! :D
 

jayu26

Member
Feb 24, 2013
6,359
0
400
Brampton, ON
[PS4] 190k
[XB1] 160k
[3DS] 95k
[WIU] 60k
[360] 50k
[PS3] 50k
98. jayu26 - 375,000


-------------
Congratulations to kyser73.
 

theprodigy

Member
Aug 25, 2013
24,331
0
0
youch I did worse than Pachter :lol

at least I'm still in top 20 by points for the year....out of two months

damn you famousmortimer and Aquamarine, I could have been 45 spots higher! :p
 

Wartari

Banned
May 10, 2013
417
0
0
I did so poorly that I think that I will never predict again. I was pathetic. Pachter beat me. :(
 
Apr 27, 2011
5,246
2
0
My first bad showing in a prediction thread. :/

Ahh well, at least I did better than most people (And I beat the average I guess). This was indeed a killer month.
 

SwiftDeath

Member
May 31, 2013
23,627
0
0
I have to stop editing my predictions. My originals while still not close to accurate were far better than what I ended up with
 

GamerJM

Banned
May 19, 2013
11,841
2
0
California
The Xbox One is only doing so good right now because no one can find a PlayStation 4.

I highly doubt this. There is not a large group of people that goes "Well, I can't find the PlayStation 4, I guess I'll get the other console." There ARE people like this, but I just can't believe they make up a large portion of the population. And either way the PS4 is in the lead and the Xbox brand is still very strong.

Anyways, I'm not surprised at my low placement. I realized how bad my predictions were minutes after posting them but was too lazy to change them.
 
Aug 19, 2006
25,598
1
0
No, I upped every number except PS4 number which I lowered it. I don't know how it happened but looks like the sum of all numbers stayed the same.

I guess it's the sum of the differences, I'm still not sure how the scoring works, especially the points.
I don't think I'll be using this months numbers next month, should be a better month for a number of reasons.
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
Jun 22, 2004
9,164
5
1,485
cgmr.net
No change in results order, so that's good. Want to be using the right number, too, though. :)

Using 155K for 3DS ...
I believe no one would fault you for using that number. It's definitely good enough for what we want here.
111. jvm - 390,000
I've spent the last year being pessimistic about everything, and it's served me fairly well. Perhaps the market really is making a turnaround, and I should wake up to that reality. I'm extremely pleased for both Microsoft and Sony, and I wish Nintendo could find a way to turn things around and join in the positive results.

Meanwhile, congrats kyser73!

And to our generous host, donny2112, thank you again for your hard work. See you next month, everyone!
 

michaelius

Member
Jan 5, 2012
15,946
1,820
935
13. michaelius - 261,000

Not bad in units but i fucked the order of places 4,5,6 so points are worse

I need to stop predicting ps3>x360 as it seems ps4 vs xbone fight at the top haven't changed much there.
 

Dubz

Member
Aug 8, 2013
3,536
0
0
When the X1 is $399, I see it keeping pace, if not beating, the PS4 in the U.S when all is said and done. I say this as an owner of both consoles, and a perference for the PS4.
 

donny2112

Member
Apr 18, 2005
18,797
1
0
Thanks! Like predicting each month, so glad that there's a group here who enjoys the same. :)

I guess it's the sum of the differences, I'm still not sure how the scoring works, especially the points.

Units is the sum of the absolute differences for each console. There is a link in the OP that goes into more detail on the point calculations. The point calculations were created so that we could evenly compare results month to month, since the units sold and thus differences in Nov/Dec can dwarf the rest of the year otherwise.
 

N.Domixis

Banned
May 30, 2013
6,883
0
310
When the X1 is $399, I see it keeping pace, if not beating, the PS4 in the U.S when all is said and done. I say this as an owner of both consoles, and a perference for the PS4.

When xbox drops the price the ps4 will drop the price. Then back to square one.
 
Aug 19, 2006
25,598
1
0
Thanks! Like predicting each month, so glad that there's a group here who enjoys the same. :)



Units is the sum of the absolute differences for each console. There is a link in the OP that goes into more detail on the point calculations. The point calculations were created so that we could evenly compare results month to month, since the units sold and thus differences in Nov/Dec can dwarf the rest of the year otherwise.

Thanks, I found the points link eventually, was a more complicated system than I expected!