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Sales-Age February 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, March 7th

Elandyll

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Oct 13, 2014
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Bit of a downer that we will likely have no numbers, but here goes, just for the fun of it.

[PS4] 400k
[XB1] 275k

Strong Q1 lineup, prefered platform by default, on top of well timed price drop and tv ads should mean a pretty large win for PS4.
 

Liabe Brave

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Jan 23, 2007
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Code:
2017 January Weekly Averages (Calculated from here - http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=230735849&postcount=328

PS4: ~210K / 4 = ~52,500
Xbox One: ~160K / 4 = ~40,000
These January estimations are too vague and thus slightly wrong. We have enough info to derive more exact numbers. I ran the parametric, and there are only three possible solutions for January 2017:

PS4: 212k
XB1: 157k

PS4: 211k
XB1: 157k

PS4: 211k
XB1: 156k

So I think the best estimate is averaging those:

PS4: 211.3k
XB1: 156.7k
 

Welfare

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Feb 24, 2014
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These January estimations are too vague and thus slightly wrong. We have enough info to derive more exact numbers. I ran the parametric, and there are only three possible solutions for January 2017:

PS4: 212k
XB1: 157k

PS4: 211k
XB1: 157k

PS4: 211k
XB1: 156k

So I think the best estimate is averaging those:

PS4: 211.3k
XB1: 156.7k
Thanks for doing that. I only put those estimates as we had a possible range but no exact numbers. Since you did that I'll change that section to include PS4 211K and XB1 157K.

This is new age Sales Age. Instead of deciphering pies, we decode ourselves.
 
Mar 16, 2016
4,609
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This.

@FinaruDensetsu:
Not only has Xbox been having deals like that for years, the Xbox One S bump seems to have died down going into January. At this point, Xbox is going to need more than deals like the one you mentioned to top PS4 which is going to have a monster 2017 on the software side of things (plus third-party partnerships starting with Mass Effect).

I think the gap in January being as large as it was (estimated at 157k vs. 222k) suggests that we may be headed back to the normal pre-holiday dominance of the PS4.

The big question going into January NPD was would the Xbox momentum continue to keep them very close to PS4 even if they lose the month (like what happened in November and December). Even though Xbox had its best January ever, 157k is not close to 222k (and again, these are estimates). February NPD will show whether January was an anomaly or whether this is really the case though.

I am curious though, why do you think these deals matter now? What other factors do you think suggest Xbox would've been more compelling to consumers than PS4 for February?
Maybe I'm forgetting but I don't think the Xbone has been at the 199 price with a new pack in game like Halo Wars yet in its life cycle. We always talk about that as the magic price to hit for sales to skyrocket.

As for the PS4s games with the exception of Horizon on the very last day of February, the other exclusives it's had are fairly niche and definitely don't have anywhere the the cache of the Halo name.
 

sirronoh

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May 11, 2014
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Maybe I'm forgetting but I don't think the Xbone has been at the 199 price with a new pack in game like Halo Wars yet in its life cycle. We always talk about that as the magic price to hit for sales to skyrocket.

As for the PS4s games with the exception of Horizon on the very last day of February, the other exclusives it's had are fairly niche and definitely don't have anywhere the the cache of the Halo name.
Ah okay, fair perspective. By niche exclusive tites, I'm assuming you're referring to games like Nioh. If that's true though, 'niche' is an odd way to describe a game that sold 1 million copies worldwide in two weeks.

Halo is certainly still a powerful brand but I should point out that Halo today is significantly diminished from the days of Halo 3. The relatively disappointing sales of the Master Chief Collection as well as Halo 5 speak to that.

Halo Wars 2 also has a few things potentially going against it:
-It's a spinoff of the main series, again to a brand that's significantly diminished in 2017
-It's no longer new -- people know what they're getting now and for those interested in that, they'll pick up the game and for everyone else, they'll either pass or think about picking it up on sale
-It's an RTS on a console -- if Nioh is niche, what does that make Halo Wars 2?

This is just my personal opinion but I would not be surprised at all if Nioh, given its extraordinary success so far, is outperforming Halo Wars 2 worldwide and launch-aligned. (Of course we'll never get accurate numbers.) As far as the U.S. is concerned, I don't think the gap between the two games sales-wise is significant and I definitely don't think the launch of Halo Wars 2 is going to have any meaningful impact on Xbox One hardware sales for February NPD. By now, one would think that people attracted to the Halo brand enough to purchase Halo Wars 2 would've already purchased an Xbox when the Master Chief Collection released or when Halo 5 released.

We shall see though. :)
 

CosmicQueso

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Feb 16, 2010
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Random guess that PS4 takes the month by 60 percent gap or more.

For Zelda attach in march, I'll go with the 85% attach range COD2 got to Xbox 360 in November '05.
 

sirronoh

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May 11, 2014
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Random guess that PS4 takes the month by 60 percent gap or more.

For Zelda attach in march, I'll go with the 85% attach range COD2 got to Xbox 360 in November '05.
60%!? That's... that's a pretty large gap

I know you said random but always like to hear your thoughts -- what factors do you think would contribute to PS4 doing well in February?
 

RexNovis

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Random guess that PS4 takes the month by 60 percent gap or more.

For Zelda attach in march, I'll go with the 85% attach range COD2 got to Xbox 360 in November '05.
60% would be huge! You say random guess but Im assuming you have some reason in mind as to what would drive such a large sales gap. Are you expecting high Pro sales due to OG PS4 owners upgrading with tax return money?
 

ethomaz

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Mar 19, 2013
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60% gap means...

XB1 ~200k
PS4 ~320k

XB1 ~250k
PS4 ~400k

There are a lot of prediction close to these numbers... most of them to be fair.

My prediction is ~50%.
 

Ravage_Hydra

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Oct 29, 2014
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Just wondering can i edited my original prediction post? asking first since i Don't wanna get disqualify.

Edit

Thanks DriftingSpirit
 

TheGorby

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Jul 24, 2016
284
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[XB1] 360K
[PS4] 290K

In Nov and Dec the Ps4 pro carried the Ps4 overall to victory, more so I'm December than November, the momentum continued and started crashing in Jan from dev and in January the Ps4 was down. The Xbox One continued its increase in sales. It's not just raw numbers too look at here. Which were estimates anyway.

Most tax refunds are not in February either, and we have no way that the Feb tax returns that did occur will be lopsided toward the PS4.

Both consoles had deals and when looking at trends the Xbox One S, which basically is the vast near total majority of xbox one sales now, is the only one showing actual growth increases.

It's more believably that the Xbox One will win Feb, if they don't it will be close and include the ls4 being down and the XO being up once again.

Also another factor to consider for both consoles sales are the people waiting for the switch at the time. Especially February tax recipients. Since the switch launched on the 3rd, that may have shaken February console adoption.
 

Abdiel

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Nov 2, 2013
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Hey all - Sorry for the delay in replying in here.

I don't have a lot of time this morning so I wanted to post something quick. This has been a solid month, though from what I can see across our districts, the PS4 has been a clear winner across the board. It wasn't as tight as with a previous months we've had. How that pans out to the other vendors, I don't know.

If people have specific questions I'll try and post again later with some broader impressions, so if you want to ask, I'll try to answer them then.

Hope those of you who got Switches are happy with them so far. Very high attach of Zelda.
 

Boke1879

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Apr 25, 2013
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Hey all - Sorry for the delay in replying in here.

I don't have a lot of time this morning so I wanted to post something quick. This has been a solid month, though from what I can see across our districts, the PS4 has been a clear winner across the board. It wasn't as tight as with a previous months we've had. How that pans out to the other vendors, I don't know.

If people have specific questions I'll try and post again later with some broader impressions, so if you want to ask, I'll try to answer them then.

Hope those of you who got Switches are happy with them so far. Very high attach of Zelda.
It should be a 1:1 attach rate for the Switch and Zelda lol
 

vivekTO

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Oct 10, 2014
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Hey all - Sorry for the delay in replying in here.

I don't have a lot of time this morning so I wanted to post something quick. This has been a solid month, though from what I can see across our districts, the PS4 has been a clear winner across the board. It wasn't as tight as with a previous months we've had. How that pans out to the other vendors, I don't know.

If people have specific questions I'll try and post again later with some broader impressions, so if you want to ask, I'll try to answer them then.

Hope those of you who got Switches are happy with them so far. Very high attach of Zelda.
I just want to know your prediction/Thoughts on Horizon Sales , First Day or First Week whatever, will it cross some milestones or not? like Best debut first party new Ip on Ps4 or something.
And Thanks for taking time to reply.
 
Sep 4, 2015
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I just want to know your prediction/Thoughts on Horizon Sales , First Day or First Week whatever, will it cross some milestones or not? like Best debut first party new Ip on Ps4 or something.
And Thanks for taking time to reply.
Now that you mention it, anyone know what is the best first party, new IP opening on PS4?
 

Mpl90

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Hey all - Sorry for the delay in replying in here.

I don't have a lot of time this morning so I wanted to post something quick. This has been a solid month, though from what I can see across our districts, the PS4 has been a clear winner across the board. It wasn't as tight as with a previous months we've had. How that pans out to the other vendors, I don't know.

If people have specific questions I'll try and post again later with some broader impressions, so if you want to ask, I'll try to answer them then.

Hope those of you who got Switches are happy with them so far. Very high attach of Zelda.
Coułd you share more about your districts' situation for Switch and also the non-Zelda launch games, since you already sort of talked about its sales :p
 

jjonez18

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Nov 23, 2014
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I just want to know your prediction/Thoughts on Horizon Sales , First Day or First Week whatever, will it cross some milestones or not? like Best debut first party new Ip on Ps4 or something.
And Thanks for taking time to reply.
What would be the barrier for that title? TLOU at just above 700k?

Bloodborne at a bit below 500k.
 

RexNovis

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Sep 8, 2013
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[XB1] 360K
[PS4] 290K

In Nov and Dec the Ps4 pro carried the Ps4 overall to victory, more so I'm December than November, the momentum continued and started crashing in Jan from dev and in January the Ps4 was down. The Xbox One continued its increase in sales. It's not just raw numbers too look at here. Which were estimates anyway.
Both consoles had deals and when looking at trends the Xbox One S, which basically is the vast near total majority of xbox one sales now, is the only one showing actual growth increases.

It's more believably that the Xbox One will win Feb, if they don't it will be close and include the ls4 being down and the XO being up once again.
Being up YoY is good but not when the previous year posted incredibly low sales for the first few months of the year. While PS4 was down YoY it also outslold the XB1 by about 50k units or by roughly 33% that month. Last year saw PS4 selling 230k units in January whereas as XB1 sold only 132k. While it's impressive that XB1 was up so much YoY the gap was so large last year that they were still outsold despite PS4 being down. Context is important. Somehow you think a month where PS4 last year saw 405k units sold in comparison to the 248k units of XB1s sold that the PS4 will be down so much YoY and the XB1 will be up so much YoY that it will end up winning the month? There's absolutely nothing to indicate such a dramatic shift in demand.

Most tax refunds are not in February either, and we have no way that the Feb tax returns that did occur will be lopsided toward the PS4.
There are plenty enough tax returns happening in February to boost sales for electronics. Just look at last year's figures. Again CONTEXT. Nobody is saying all tax returns happen in a February.

Also another factor to consider for both consoles sales are the people waiting for the switch at the time. Especially February tax recipients. Since the switch launched on the 3rd, that may have shaken February console adoption.
A ven diagram of people buying a switch at launch and people purchasing an XB1s or PS4 Slim/Pro this late in the game is unlikely to overlap much at all. Main reason? Price/perceived value. Another? Low initial stock shipments from Nintendo. Generally speaking Nintendo appeals to any entirely different market of ppl than the other manufacturers do which is the main reason why their success is very good for the industry as a whole.

Hey all - Sorry for the delay in replying in here.

I don't have a lot of time this morning so I wanted to post something quick. This has been a solid month, though from what I can see across our districts, the PS4 has been a clear winner across the board. It wasn't as tight as with a previous months we've had. How that pans out to the other vendors, I don't know.

If people have specific questions I'll try and post again later with some broader impressions, so if you want to ask, I'll try to answer them then.

Hope those of you who got Switches are happy with them so far. Very high attach of Zelda.
Cheers Abdiel. I expect Zelda to have an attach rate around 85% on switch when all is said and done. Out of curiosity how much of an increase in interest did you guys see for XB1 and PS4 Slim during their respective limited discount periods? Also how did this year compare to previous years as far as traffic from tax returns is concerned? Nothing specific mind you it's looking for a general idea.
 

Shizza

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Dec 17, 2013
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Hey all - Sorry for the delay in replying in here.

I don't have a lot of time this morning so I wanted to post something quick. This has been a solid month, though from what I can see across our districts, the PS4 has been a clear winner across the board. It wasn't as tight as with a previous months we've had. How that pans out to the other vendors, I don't know.

If people have specific questions I'll try and post again later with some broader impressions, so if you want to ask, I'll try to answer them then.

Hope those of you who got Switches are happy with them so far. Very high attach of Zelda.
Out of curiosity, can you estimate what the shipped stock of Pro Controllers was to the Switch System (such as 25 controllers per 100 systems). I'm wondering if their lack of availability is due to low stock - similar to the NES Classic Mini?

Also, what do pre-orders look like? Any clear leaders?

Thanks again for your insight!
 

Abdiel

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Nov 2, 2013
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I just want to know your prediction/Thoughts on Horizon Sales , First Day or First Week whatever, will it cross some milestones or not? like Best debut first party new Ip on Ps4 or something.
And Thanks for taking time to reply.
Horizon has done very, very well. At least a few of my stores completely exhausted their entire launch shipments, and needed to be restocked this week. Our Sony Rep was ecstatic.

Preorders were already significantly higher than previously after the high reception, but then the actual pickup from customers and immediate feedback/word of mouth has been excellent.

Now, mind, it's still a first party exclusive title that isn't the heyday of Halo or GT, with millions of copies ready to fly away... but we're really pleased with how it's doing so far. They sent us plenty of copies at each location, and it's been moving consistently.

Coułd you share more about your districts' situation for Switch and also the non-Zelda launch games, since you already sort of talked about its sales :p
Switch metrics...

So, some stores got more than others. All pretty much got cleaned out immediately. We got a bit more on Sunday for the weekend, but it wasn't a significant number per store. The overall inventory I'd say... I was reading the PAL thread, and the numbers talking about the UK seemed a little low by comparison, like maybe it was closer to the XB1 than they were over there? But not significantly so. They didn't have stacks of inventory ready to go.

As to games, 1 2 Switch had some movement from impulse buyers, but I mean, it's a launch mini game collection that hasn't shown off being very compelling to most. Maybe if we get actual demo stations it will be able to speak to folks more easily, but for now it doesn't have much word of mouth, and Bomberman is really expensive for most folks, and really seems like it's not going to do much.


Cheers Abdiel. I expect Zelda to have an attach rate around 85% on switch when all is said and done. Out of curiosity how much of an increase in interest did you guys see for XB1 and PS4 Slim during their respective limited discount periods? Also how did this year compare to previous years as far as traffic from tax returns is concerned? Nothing specific mind you it's looking for a general idea.
Well the Slim is doing really well for the PS4, though I'm still bemused at how many people expect the Pro to just stop selling. It remains an effective constant, with some really good momentum right now in this season. And after having Horizon on mine right now, I can provide absolute confirmation of how well it works too.

The XB1S is chugging along, but this is just always a rough time of year for the Xbox. It never seems to have any real strength coming into this period. Halo Wars 2 is already an afterthought, and the conversation in most games media is about what is happening NOW for excitement in the Sony and Nintendo camps, but everything is further down the line for the XB1 to see what's in the pipeline beyond the usual multi-plats. This is of course just fine, as for those who are the typical audience for it, the string of releases in Japanese games on the other two consoles are likely not very enticing anyway.

I mean, just in the current 30 day window I have Tales of Berseria, Horizon, Torment, Nier, Mass Effect, Toukiden 2, and then the Kingdom Hearts 1.5+2.5... Most of those games are non-starters for the XB1 audience, and only 2 are multiplat with the console. It creates a very different dynamic of conversation when customers ask about games releases. Mass Effect has a solid lead in preorders on PS4 as well.

I think that it's a weird spot to be in. The discussion becomes more about what are they missing out on, but at the same time, most XB1 owners I talk to in my stores don't care about 80% of the releases on the PS4, so it doesn't motivate change. It keeps from enticing those games from expanding the library and from opening up the audience into considering the console as viable if they're looking for those options.

Out of curiosity, can you estimate what the shipped stock of Pro Controllers was to the Switch System (such as 25 controllers per 100 systems). I'm wondering if their lack of availability is due to low stock - similar to the NES Classic Mini?

Also, what do pre-orders look like? Any clear leaders?

Thanks again for your insight!
Um, that's a good series of questions. Pro Controllers were initially kind of hit or miss on orders, but as the joy con stories starting circulating, we got more orders or questions about them... Hard to get an exact ratio. 1 in 4 is probably not a bad guess by comparison though. I'll see if I can get it in closer, it would mean more digging in SKU comparisons, which is harder to do.

Preorders on... Switch Games, I'm assuming? Quite a few for Splatoon 2, lots for Mario, good number for Mario Kart, and a sparse collection for Xenoblade... though I imagine as we get closer and more actually shows up, these will grow and customers will get more confident. We just also have only so many potential buyers. There's probably more people who would be willing to snag at least one of those games but don't have the console yet.
 

sirronoh

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May 11, 2014
689
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Horizon has done very, very well. At least a few of my stores completely exhausted their entire launch shipments, and needed to be restocked this week. Our Sony Rep was ecstatic.

Preorders were already significantly higher than previously after the high reception, but then the actual pickup from customers and immediate feedback/word of mouth has been excellent.

Now, mind, it's still a first party exclusive title that isn't the heyday of Halo or GT, with millions of copies ready to fly away... but we're really pleased with how it's doing so far. They sent us plenty of copies at each location, and it's been moving consistently.



Switch metrics...

So, some stores got more than others. All pretty much got cleaned out immediately. We got a bit more on Sunday for the weekend, but it wasn't a significant number per store. The overall inventory I'd say... I was reading the PAL thread, and the numbers talking about the UK seemed a little low by comparison, like maybe it was closer to the XB1 than they were over there? But not significantly so. They didn't have stacks of inventory ready to go.

As to games, 1 2 Switch had some movement from impulse buyers, but I mean, it's a launch mini game collection that hasn't shown off being very compelling to most. Maybe if we get actual demo stations it will be able to speak to folks more easily, but for now it doesn't have much word of mouth, and Bomberman is really expensive for most folks, and really seems like it's not going to do much.




Well the Slim is doing really well for the PS4, though I'm still bemused at how many people expect the Pro to just stop selling. It remains an effective constant, with some really good momentum right now in this season. And after having Horizon on mine right now, I can provide absolute confirmation of how well it works too.

The XB1S is chugging along, but this is just always a rough time of year for the Xbox. It never seems to have any real strength coming into this period. Halo Wars 2 is already an afterthought, and the conversation in most games media is about what is happening NOW for excitement in the Sony and Nintendo camps, but everything is further down the line for the XB1 to see what's in the pipeline beyond the usual multi-plats. This is of course just fine, as for those who are the typical audience for it, the string of releases in Japanese games on the other two consoles are likely not very enticing anyway.

I mean, just in the current 30 day window I have Tales of Berseria, Horizon, Torment, Nier, Mass Effect, Toukiden 2, and then the Kingdom Hearts 1.5+2.5... Most of those games are non-starters for the XB1 audience, and only 2 are multiplat with the console. It creates a very different dynamic of conversation when customers ask about games releases. Mass Effect has a solid lead in preorders on PS4 as well.

I think that it's a weird spot to be in. The discussion becomes more about what are they missing out on, but at the same time, most XB1 owners I talk to in my stores don't care about 80% of the releases on the PS4, so it doesn't motivate change. It keeps from enticing those games from expanding the library and from opening up the audience into considering the console as viable if they're looking for those options.



Um, that's a good series of questions. Pro Controllers were initially kind of hit or miss on orders, but as the joy con stories starting circulating, we got more orders or questions about them... Hard to get an exact ratio. 1 in 4 is probably not a bad guess by comparison though. I'll see if I can get it in closer, it would mean more digging in SKU comparisons, which is harder to do.

Preorders on... Switch Games, I'm assuming? Quite a few for Splatoon 2, lots for Mario, good number for Mario Kart, and a sparse collection for Xenoblade... though I imagine as we get closer and more actually shows up, these will grow and customers will get more confident. We just also have only so many potential buyers. There's probably more people who would be willing to snag at least one of those games but don't have the console yet.
Great read, thanks Abdiel!

Xbox One owners being seemingly apathetic towards the Japanese third-party PS4 games is something I've seen come up from time to time. Really is an odd situation because there's a minority of Xbox One owners who claim to want those games to at least also hit Xbox but then the argument is the games won't sell well enough to justify the port. Unfortunate situation to be in.

Despite the crazy start to the year that PS4 has had, like you mentioned, there's still a decent amount of western third-party games coming to both systems + Halo Wars 2 so there's been games to play.

Hopefully we get close estimates on the numbers for PS4 and Xbox One for February so we can have more meaningful discussion. Based on what we've heard and seen so far, I don't expect the gap to be close.