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February 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, March 7th

D

DriftingSpirit

Member
sirronoh said:
Great read, thanks Abdiel!

Xbox One owners being seemingly apathetic towards the Japanese third-party PS4 games is something I've seen come up from time to time. Really is an odd situation because there's a minority of Xbox One owners who claim to want those games to at least also hit Xbox but then the argument is the games won't sell well enough to justify the port. Unfortunate situation to be in.

Despite the crazy start to the year that PS4 has had, like you mentioned, there's still a decent amount of western third-party games coming to both systems + Halo Wars 2 so there's been games to play.

Hopefully we get close estimates on the numbers for PS4 and Xbox One for February so we can have more meaningful discussion. Based on what we've heard and seen so far, I don't expect the gap to be close.
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I just think the X1 base is more in line with the shooter/MP type stuff. Look at how Titanfall performed early in the generation. I think a minority here actually care about Japanese games with another minority here saying they don't care about them only because they aren't coming to X1.

There is too much variety to say "I don't like Japanese games". That is saying you don't like RPGs, action/adventure, hack n' slash, etc... Gravity Rush 2 is nothing like Yakuza 0, Yakuza 0 is nothing like Persona 5, Persona 5 is nothing like NieR, NieR is nothing like Resident Evil 7, etc... Maybe it is an aesthetic thing but even than I find it to be a stretch.
 
S

Shizza

Member
Abdiel said:
Um, that's a good series of questions. Pro Controllers were initially kind of hit or miss on orders, but as the joy con stories starting circulating, we got more orders or questions about them... Hard to get an exact ratio. 1 in 4 is probably not a bad guess by comparison though. I'll see if I can get it in closer, it would mean more digging in SKU comparisons, which is harder to do.

Preorders on... Switch Games, I'm assuming? Quite a few for Splatoon 2, lots for Mario, good number for Mario Kart, and a sparse collection for Xenoblade... though I imagine as we get closer and more actually shows up, these will grow and customers will get more confident. We just also have only so many potential buyers. There's probably more people who would be willing to snag at least one of those games but don't have the console yet.
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Yes, and thank you! The large number of pre-orders for a new Mario title seems like a given, but the good amount for MK8D and S2 are curious to me, since the one is an enhanced port and the other seems to be a very similar sequel.

So, I'm trying to reconcile if there are a bunch of people that will be re-buying it on the Switch for the added portability and *some new features* (like me), or if there's a swell of new interest from people that skipped the WIU and are finally getting to buy these titles on the Switch
, or perhaps it's closer to a mix of both and nothing to see here.
 
T

The Gorby Congressmanz

Banned
RexNovis said:
Being up YoY is good but not when the previous year posted incredibly low sales for the first few months of the year. While PS4 was down YoY it also outslold the XB1 by about 50k units or by roughly 33% that month. Last year saw PS4 selling 230k units in January whereas as XB1 sold only 132k. While it's impressive that XB1 was up so much YoY the gap was so large last year that they were still outsold despite PS4 being down. Context is important. Somehow you think a month where PS4 last year saw 405k units sold in comparison to the 248k units of XB1s sold that the PS4 will be down so much YoY and the XB1 will be up so much YoY that it will end up winning the month? There's absolutely nothing to indicate such a dramatic shift in demand.



There are plenty enough tax returns happening in February to boost sales for electronics. Just look at last year's figures. Again CONTEXT. Nobody is saying all tax returns happen in a February.



A ven diagram of people buying a switch at launch and people purchasing an XB1s or PS4 Slim/Pro this late in the game is unlikely to overlap much at all. Main reason? Price/perceived value. Another? Low initial stock shipments from Nintendo. Generally speaking Nintendo appeals to any entirely different market of ppl than the other manufacturers do which is the main reason why their success is very good for the industry as a whole.



Cheers Abdiel. I expect Zelda to have an attach rate around 85% on switch when all is said and done. Out of curiosity how much of an increase in interest did you guys see for XB1 and PS4 Slim during their respective limited discount periods? Also how did this year compare to previous years as far as traffic from tax returns is concerned? Nothing specific mind you it's looking for a general idea.
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You talk of content but ignore the percentage in increases and decreases for both consoles.
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
TheGorby said:
You talk of content but ignore the percentage in increases and decreases for both consoles.
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I think you mean context. Percentage only tells part of the story. You need the actual sales figures to give it context.
For example:

Paul sells one egg and 5 pickles to Susie one week and then 2 eggs and 4 pickles the next.

Now Paul still sold more pickles than eggs despite his egg sales increasing 100% WoW and his pickle sales declining 20% WoW. Thus % change and trends are only part of the picture it means nothing without the added context of actual sales.
 
S

sirronoh

Member
I'm with Rex on this one for all of the reasons he provided. We could all be wrong of course but there's just nothing that suggests demand for Xbox propelled it high enough to beat PS4 considering the gap between the two in January and last February and content-wise. Realistically, the only question is how much did PS4 outsell Xbox by, not whether it did or not. And that's what I suspect we'll have fun discussing on Thursday. If not, then I'll gladly admit I got it wrong.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Alright! Good times this month! February is when everybody feels better about the industry because of the "unexpected" bump. Hopefully that translates into people/corporations wanting to brag!
(~_^)
Decent chance of PS4 exceeding the highest predictor this month (i.e. 410K), too. With the average being close to that, seems there wasn't a whole lot of variation. Good times for some surprises!
Think positive!

NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions - Feb-2017

1. PS4 - 372K
2. XB1 - 279K
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
donny2112 said:
Alright! Good times this month! February is when everybody feels better about the industry because of the "unexpected" bump. Hopefully that translates into people/corporations wanting to brag!
(~_^)
Decent chance of PS4 exceeding the highest predictor this month (i.e. 410K), too. With the average being close to that, seems there wasn't a whole lot of variation. Good times for some surprises!
Think positive!

NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions - Feb-2017

1. PS4 - 372K
2. XB1 - 279K
Click to expand...

Wow you really think PS4 could be up YoY in February? That'd be really impressive considering how well they did last year.
 
D

donny2112

Member
RexNovis said:
Wow you really think PS4 could be up YoY in February? That'd be really impressive considering how well they did last year.
Click to expand...

Last February, I think they had a good trade-in deal with GameStop? Or was that XB1? Anyways, both had returns to holiday pricing for times when people actually had month from tax returns. Maybe it won't be up YOY, but it at least wouldn't be a far reach to beat the highest prediction this month considering the general consensus. Gotta find something to talk about! (^_^)
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
It does seem weird to be thinking about NPD tomorrow already, but it helps when February is the shortest month of the year.

The wait for March NPD will be loooong.

Also to chime in with the PS4 discussion, the introduction of the white bundle plus it hitting $249 for 2 weeks has the potential to hit above 400K and maybe even up from last year. The drop in March will be ridiculous though.
 
N

noobie

Banned
Welfare said:
It does seem weird to be thinking about NPD tomorrow already, but it helps when February is the shortest month of the year.

The wait for March NPD will be loooong.

Also to chime in with the PS4 discussion, the introduction of the white bundle plus it hitting $249 for 2 weeks has the potential to hit above 400K and maybe even up from last year. The drop in March will be ridiculous though.
Click to expand...

You have pretty high hopes.
 
S

sirronoh

Member
Yep. I suspect it'll be the usual, PS4 is #1 with only MS giving PR about something user engagement related while notating something special they did that PS4 didn't.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Given how December and January went, I would not be surprised to hear another "we were the only console up YoY".
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
Welfare said:
Given how December and January went, I would not be surprised to hear another "we were the only console up YoY".
Click to expand...

Doubt anything is up YoY. Also think aggregate is probably a bit pessimistic PS4, pretty optimistic on Xbox One. Hopefully we find out but don't think anyone's going to say anything.
 
S

sirronoh

Member
Fdkn said:
losing by less than the year before means you have the momentum, so they can keep going with that.
Click to expand...

Microsoft's PR plan seems pretty clear at this point -- ride any news on momentum all the way to the Scorpio reveal and then hope that Scorpio talk can take over leading up to the launch. It's one of the only cards they have in their hand at the moment with Sony and Nintendo getting all the media coverage these last few months and none of their non-Halo, Gears, Forza games drumming up comparable attention for some reason.

Honestly they're doing the best they can given their relative market share compared to last generation and there's no shame in that.

EDIT: As soon as I post this, another Scorpio thread pops up
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
CosmicQueso said:
Doubt anything is up YoY. Also think aggregate is probably a bit pessimistic PS4, pretty optimistic on Xbox One. Hopefully we find out but don't think anyone's going to say anything.
Click to expand...

Any reason Xbox wouldn't be up from 248K? That would be a terrible result if it were below that.

The GAF average for PS4 is on the lower end than I thought it would be.
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
Welfare said:
Any reason Xbox wouldn't be up from 248K? That would be a terrible result if it were below that.
Click to expand...

- lack of system driving sw releases in feb
- Scorpio talk pushing purchases out
- Saving money for Switch (MS audience attaches to NIN console hw at higher rate than Sony)
 
C

Conduit

Banned
ethomaz said:
I really forget HW2 existed lol
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Probably you missed some games.

Wzfn6zp.jpg
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Abdiel said:
Switch metrics...

So, some stores got more than others. All pretty much got cleaned out immediately. We got a bit more on Sunday for the weekend, but it wasn't a significant number per store. The overall inventory I'd say... I was reading the PAL thread, and the numbers talking about the UK seemed a little low by comparison, like maybe it was closer to the XB1 than they were over there? But not significantly so. They didn't have stacks of inventory ready to go.

As to games, 1 2 Switch had some movement from impulse buyers, but I mean, it's a launch mini game collection that hasn't shown off being very compelling to most. Maybe if we get actual demo stations it will be able to speak to folks more easily, but for now it doesn't have much word of mouth, and Bomberman is really expensive for most folks, and really seems like it's not going to do much.
Click to expand...

Sorry for being a bit late, but thanks for answering to my question about Switch, Abdiel :)
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
CosmicQueso said:
- lack of system driving sw releases in feb
- Scorpio talk pushing purchases out
- Saving money for Switch (MS audience attaches to NIN console hw at higher rate than Sony)
Click to expand...

The releases in 2016 and 2017 aren't that different. The biggest new release in 2016 was Far Cry Primal at the end of the month and this year had For Honor.

I highly doubt Scorpio has any effect on sales at this point. The only news about Scorpio has been pushed through enthusiast boards. The consumers buying $249 consoles in February aren't waiting for Scorpio.

That last point does sound interesting.

Data will be out in an hour or so but being down YoY this month would be worrying. The rest of the year leading to Scorpio would be very low.
 
Unknown?

Unknown?

Member
Welfare said:
The releases in 2016 and 2017 aren't that different. The biggest new release in 2016 was Far Cry Primal at the end of the month and this year had For Honor.

Data will be out in an hour or so but being down YoY this month would be worrying. The rest of the year leading to Scorpio would be very low.
Click to expand...
For Xbox it's not that different but for Sony/Nintendo things are very different. Higher profile games on PS4 and while Horizon isn't part of Feb it's still got people talking along with the switch/Zelda launch.
 
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