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Final Fantasy XV needs to sell 10 million units to succeed in team's goal
- Thread starter James Scott
- Start date
Square2015
Member
Well I'm still waiting on creamsugar to give us an update (I've been asking him repeatedly for dat RPG update).
I only report physical sales BTW. XIV must've sold millions digitally if true.
Holundrian
Unconfirmed Member
How does nobody tell them that this is a shit idea.
Like what makes the guys there think that that's going to happen especially after they weakened the franchise with 3 games a lot of people didn't like.
Like what makes the guys there think that that's going to happen especially after they weakened the franchise with 3 games a lot of people didn't like.
Thinking about how the big message from Uncovered was that FFXV is basically a huge cross-media project now, I have come to the realization that it doesn't matter whether Hajima Tabata is a hack or not, because it is now a fact that Final Fantasy XV is a .hack.
......
Don't beat me... too much.
......
Don't beat me... too much.
Gross.
Perfect Cha0s
Member
You know duckroll, we really are the Final Fantasy.
...It's beautiful. Thank you based Duckroll. To be this good takes Gundam AGES.
The look is what Japanese people think Westerners like. I personally don't have a problem with it but I don't see it breaking into the mainstream in the West. Noctis is not a compelling lead at least in design terms. No teenage boy is going to look at these characters and think "man, these guys are so cool!"
Then they should do a handheld NX port, along with Vita 2, and Oyua
When they say lifetime I gotta wonder how long they actually mean. Let's be honest with ourselves here , PS4 sales in asia/japan aren't super hot but FFXV might end up selling a million units there anyway. Could also sell a few people on a PS4 as well.
So , unlike with FF7 , you won't get 4 million people to buy the game because there probably won't ever be 4 million PS4 owners, at least not any time soon anyway.
That means the rest of the world has to pick up that sales slack and it seems like Europe and North America can manage roughly the same number of sales going by that giant chart posted earlier in the thread.
That means , 4.5 million need to sell in North America and 4.5 million need to sell everywhere else. Even if people that dropped out thanks to 13 come back , hell even if people that dropped out after 10 come back , you're looking at sales numbers probably far closer to 2.5 million in NA and 2.5 million in Europe. In other words , I'll be very surprised if this game manages 6 million copies within 6 months. I'd love to be wrong but Final Fantasy isn't Call of Duty or Grand Theft Auto, the mass appeal simply isn't there like it once was.
What does that mean ? Well 6 million copies sold at 60 USD should be about 35$ revenue per copy sold going to Square - Enix. The deluxe versions , I doubt they make that much extra on between dealing with building statues and everything else. Plus they're only making 30K of them. So 6 million X 35 USD = 210 million USD.
Square - enix is a publicly traded business though , so they have to turn a profit quickly on something like a big game investment in order to keep investors money , otherwise they'll pull out and the share price drops. So the question really is , how much money did Square spend on FFXV , as I did in another thread - I estimated the development cost based on 90K a year per employee (assuming a staff of 300) multiplied by 3.5 years of full development and that comes to around 95 million dollars. I consider work on versus XIII to be a write off , they added that as red ink in the 2012 fiscal year as that version of the game was cancelled and pretty much rebuilt starting in 2013. So that means , at first glance a 2:1 return on investment right ? Well no because I don't feel that 95 million reflects the cost of porting the game to xbox one (probably 5-10 million dollars) , localizing it in english (probably 5-10 million dollars) and most especially marketing - we've already seen some of that marketing budget being used with the brotherhood anime (which is kind of low budget looking but it's still 60 minutes of animation) as well as Kings Glaive being at least 60 minutes itself. During the FF event last night it was revealed that kings glaive has been worked on for 2.5 years , you can then figure out it's budget similar to how I figured out the games budget - except it was probably more like 100 people working for 2.5 years , that is - at least 20 million dollars, maybe even as much as 30 or 40 million. The anime is much cheaper to produce though, I figure 5 million tops , probably less. Then you've got a likely TV ad campaign , a big one at that and other cross promotional materials .. I'd say it's pretty easy to assume 100 million for the game and 100 million to promote it. Suddenly that 200 million in revenue doesn't seem like much right ?
What will save this game in the mid to long term will be ports and DLC just like most things now. With the PS4K and XB1.5 possibly coming out by the end of next year as well as a PC port , you'll see this game re-released to take more advantage of better tech. It will also probably get a PS5 port whenever that happens to come out. So if by lifetime sales they mean all of those potential future ports and 3 years of business , well maybe just maybe they might come close but this also assumes a full priced re-release. It's far more likely that 2016 sales will peak around 4.5-5 million worldwide and assuming PC versions 4K ports and discounted sales, 1.5-3 million more sales throughout 2017.
What I'm getting at - FFXV will break even as a brand about 12 months after release and it will make some profit in the 12 months after that. Not as much as square wants to consider it a success because again, investors want a fast return and they want a good return. Making 10 cents on a dollar after 5 years isn't good enough, they want 25 cents on that dollar and they want it in 3 years. 10 million in sales at full price will give them that.
So , unlike with FF7 , you won't get 4 million people to buy the game because there probably won't ever be 4 million PS4 owners, at least not any time soon anyway.
That means the rest of the world has to pick up that sales slack and it seems like Europe and North America can manage roughly the same number of sales going by that giant chart posted earlier in the thread.
That means , 4.5 million need to sell in North America and 4.5 million need to sell everywhere else. Even if people that dropped out thanks to 13 come back , hell even if people that dropped out after 10 come back , you're looking at sales numbers probably far closer to 2.5 million in NA and 2.5 million in Europe. In other words , I'll be very surprised if this game manages 6 million copies within 6 months. I'd love to be wrong but Final Fantasy isn't Call of Duty or Grand Theft Auto, the mass appeal simply isn't there like it once was.
What does that mean ? Well 6 million copies sold at 60 USD should be about 35$ revenue per copy sold going to Square - Enix. The deluxe versions , I doubt they make that much extra on between dealing with building statues and everything else. Plus they're only making 30K of them. So 6 million X 35 USD = 210 million USD.
Square - enix is a publicly traded business though , so they have to turn a profit quickly on something like a big game investment in order to keep investors money , otherwise they'll pull out and the share price drops. So the question really is , how much money did Square spend on FFXV , as I did in another thread - I estimated the development cost based on 90K a year per employee (assuming a staff of 300) multiplied by 3.5 years of full development and that comes to around 95 million dollars. I consider work on versus XIII to be a write off , they added that as red ink in the 2012 fiscal year as that version of the game was cancelled and pretty much rebuilt starting in 2013. So that means , at first glance a 2:1 return on investment right ? Well no because I don't feel that 95 million reflects the cost of porting the game to xbox one (probably 5-10 million dollars) , localizing it in english (probably 5-10 million dollars) and most especially marketing - we've already seen some of that marketing budget being used with the brotherhood anime (which is kind of low budget looking but it's still 60 minutes of animation) as well as Kings Glaive being at least 60 minutes itself. During the FF event last night it was revealed that kings glaive has been worked on for 2.5 years , you can then figure out it's budget similar to how I figured out the games budget - except it was probably more like 100 people working for 2.5 years , that is - at least 20 million dollars, maybe even as much as 30 or 40 million. The anime is much cheaper to produce though, I figure 5 million tops , probably less. Then you've got a likely TV ad campaign , a big one at that and other cross promotional materials .. I'd say it's pretty easy to assume 100 million for the game and 100 million to promote it. Suddenly that 200 million in revenue doesn't seem like much right ?
What will save this game in the mid to long term will be ports and DLC just like most things now. With the PS4K and XB1.5 possibly coming out by the end of next year as well as a PC port , you'll see this game re-released to take more advantage of better tech. It will also probably get a PS5 port whenever that happens to come out. So if by lifetime sales they mean all of those potential future ports and 3 years of business , well maybe just maybe they might come close but this also assumes a full priced re-release. It's far more likely that 2016 sales will peak around 4.5-5 million worldwide and assuming PC versions 4K ports and discounted sales, 1.5-3 million more sales throughout 2017.
What I'm getting at - FFXV will break even as a brand about 12 months after release and it will make some profit in the 12 months after that. Not as much as square wants to consider it a success because again, investors want a fast return and they want a good return. Making 10 cents on a dollar after 5 years isn't good enough, they want 25 cents on that dollar and they want it in 3 years. 10 million in sales at full price will give them that.
I didn't find the engine super impressive from what I played of the Platinum Demo. :|
Permanently A
Junior Member
Jesus christ Square. Release the Duscae demo, I mean what the fuck were you thinking?
Rhazer Fusion
Member
10 million? I am thinking 5 million is pushing it, but 10 million is insane. Unfortunately, I do not see it happening, especially considering PS4 and XBox One are not even that popular in Japan.
Daredevil.shark
Banned
That's a lot of money. By a rough calculation, they need to generate $600 million revenue (10 million x $60). If we exclude all other things like retail copy seller cut, marketing and others then SE might still need $300 million (very crude calculation). I am not an expert but that's a lot of money. In the GTA territory. I really hope it sells 10 million copy. Because it will be very unlikely.
Edit: I can see others have done more detailed revenue breakdown. Yeah. This project is very costly.
Edit: I can see others have done more detailed revenue breakdown. Yeah. This project is very costly.
DarkLordMalik
Member
XIV has been on sale for dirt cheap multiple times digitally. I think I bought it for $10. The sale is also pretty frequent and happens a lot. I am sure majority of the money SE makes from XIV is from subs.
Not sure if serious, it will be very close of 4M by the end of the year
DarkLordMalik
Member
Again, the 10 million figure is likely what they expect for the best case scenario. It is not something that is needed to break even. The budget is certainly not 200+ million and Tabata has mentioned that the budget is controlled strictly and they aren't allowed to go further from what they are allocated.
http://www.gamespot.com/articles/final-fantasy-15-director-qanda-the-race-to-the-fi/1100-6429741/
That's true, but does Square-Enix see value in that?
John Harker
Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
I just started typing this long reply, thought better of it and deleted it.
Basically, as my opinion would go, saying "10mil" for a company like Square is one of those hyperbolic internal statements a company makes to justify the % of resources the company is investing in one project and also to keep the internal teams motivated. A project of this investment from Square isn't the size of one from like an EA or Acti or Ubi, and I've seen projects with just as many restarts and larger team sizes have profitability goals of 6mm at the high end.
Basically, as my opinion would go, saying "10mil" for a company like Square is one of those hyperbolic internal statements a company makes to justify the % of resources the company is investing in one project and also to keep the internal teams motivated. A project of this investment from Square isn't the size of one from like an EA or Acti or Ubi, and I've seen projects with just as many restarts and larger team sizes have profitability goals of 6mm at the high end.
DarkLordMalik
Member
Thank you for this reply. This is what I have been saying in this thread
People take the 10 million figure literally. That would be insane if that was the actual target.
Thanks for this tidbit.
Makes me think they want 10 million so its as influential to them as FF7.
With that out of the way, got any guess where they need to sell to break even?
redfox088
Banned
The witcher is not a long famed and storied franchise that pushed the limits of gaming and brought the medium to the forefront of culture....I don't understand why people keep making this comparison...that's like comparing Saints row sales to GTA
Crimsonsky
Member
Unreasonable expectations aside, is it news that Witcher 3 and MGS V have sold about the same? And only 5 million? I haven't touched my ps4 since November of last year. What are these playing?
I do have to let out a brief chuckle at Square though. This game will be off the heels of FFXIII saga and FFXIV. Now they turned FFXIV around, but still. Learn the lesson fellas. It isn't hard. They won't hit FO4 numbers, no way. FO4 is coming off Skyrim's 22 million and backed by a decade of damn fine gaming. Square isn't in a position anywhere near that.
I do have to let out a brief chuckle at Square though. This game will be off the heels of FFXIII saga and FFXIV. Now they turned FFXIV around, but still. Learn the lesson fellas. It isn't hard. They won't hit FO4 numbers, no way. FO4 is coming off Skyrim's 22 million and backed by a decade of damn fine gaming. Square isn't in a position anywhere near that.
In Japan? No it won't haha. Are you expecting like 2 million Japanese people to just buy the game and put it on their mantle and gather around and look at it?
redfox088
Banned
They're trying hard to reach out to other and honestly I don't think it will work but it could sell 6-7 mill off a stronge marketing push
Chobel
Member
Phew, thanks for this post man. I was starting to get worried about SE future in AAA game development.
texhnolyze
Banned
Right, digital sales numbers are hard to come by, especially for consoles.
It's not a regular Final Fantasy though, it's an open world RPG (even though it won't be 100% open world). It's a growing genre with huge audience. And in 2016, open world RPG is kinda rare compared to what we had in the last couple years. With ME Andromeda out of the way, I think FFXV will be the only open world RPG in 2016. That's if we're not counting The Division (mmo-lite) and The Witcher 3 (expansion). Not sure if Horizon will be out this year. Maybe I'm missing something so cmiiw.
So my prediction of 6 million copies to breakeven is not that far-fetch'd at all, given the side things they do for the promotion.
FO4 shipped 12 million copies in the first month. This game is aiming for 10 million life-span. I don't think hitting FO4 number is SE's goal.
Fallout 4 shipped 12 million first week, not first month.
Triggerhappytel
Member
I remember before the release of Dragon's Dogma, one of the producers said he thought it could go on to sell 10 million copies.
AppleSeason
Member
I'd preorder and help the cause, but I'm too traumatised after FFXIII to blindly trust this franchise.
Hear that? That's the sound of my breathing going back to normal after so much hyper-ventilating.
Really hoped SQUENIX have embraced a new, smart strategy under Matsuda and left behind that Wada-brand madness.
Trojita
Rapid Response Threadmaker
Not like this duckroll.
Christ really? That seems insanely high.
Surely they broke all kinds of records with sales like that.
Shao Kahn Brewing a Stew
Banned
Good luck. Seriously. Not gonna happen?
Some Nobody
Junior Member
All of this combined might get the game to 5 million. Maybe.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Tabata is crazy and he probably wishes FFXV becomes the next FF7 but I doubt it (maybe if Nomura was still director, yes I'm still salty).
That being said, if the game is well reviewed I can see 7-8 million LTD.
That being said, if the game is well reviewed I can see 7-8 million LTD.
encephalon
Member
My sales prediction for Japan that is very scientific and not at all pulled from my ass is 600-800k.
Now the combat will be compared to other action games where it'll come out looking laughably bad instead.
hurricanes
Member
Entire lifespan? That will be doable if the game turn out to be any good.