End of 2020. So 3 yrs 10 months
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(Gamesindustry) Nintendo Switch to sell 40M units through 2020 - DFC Intel. report
- Thread starter Volotaire
- Start date
bobbychalkers
Member
thestopsign
Member
Yes.
The hybrid gimmick is only attractive to a segment of users though when they have other ways to play games on the go. Many people probably won't even detach their units from the dock ever as opposed to just playing games traditionally.
Handhelds especially in the west are not generally supported all that well, which means the handheld angle is hit or miss
Go to a mall and look around you at the hub of people and tell me after going there 4 days of the week for a few months how many people you even see playing phone games
tkscz
Member
You are aware GAF is a minority right?
Lilalaunebaer
Member
Mihael Mello Keehl
Banned
Vita tv?
Raven117
Member
Yeah, but you are underestimating the curve for this thing.
Preorders are already hard to find now. The hardcore will jump on this fast and pay the 300 and pick up Zelda. Zelda will review at like 10/10 (or something like that...regardless if deserved or not...though it does look good). People will like it.
Then some Splatoon.
Then finally Mario will release...Either Switch will get a price cut, or a bundle with Mario...
Badaboom buda bing, The price point is just right for the casual crowd.
If Nintendo makes some smart choices....This concept has potential. "An on the go game console that you can plug into your TV...with all the good Nintento First party games and some of the more whacky smaller titles.
JordanN
Banned
I don't think it's going to be easy to get the 3DS crowd to move over to Switch.
The people who bought 3DS did so because it was coming off the DS and they were looking for something that was very cheap (hence the insane price cut in the beginning).
Switch is launching for $300 with games that are going to be a bit more expensive (3DS still had the handheld benefit of launching games $10-$20 cheaper than home console versions. If Switch is also being treated like a home console and aiming for "AAA" graphics, it will be $60 or more for games).
The people who bought 3DS did so because it was coming off the DS and they were looking for something that was very cheap (hence the insane price cut in the beginning).
Switch is launching for $300 with games that are going to be a bit more expensive (3DS still had the handheld benefit of launching games $10-$20 cheaper than home console versions. If Switch is also being treated like a home console and aiming for "AAA" graphics, it will be $60 or more for games).
Dark Cloud
Member
It's a hybrid...it has a different appeal.
You never know, but I could see it.
Deputy Moonman
Member
Animal Crossing needs to be a thing and it needs to be marketed hardcore. I really think the momentum of the Switch will hinge entirely on how good BoTW does. If it starts out with a bang, followed by Mario Odyssey being good, plus Animal Crossing and Pokemon potentially being announced at E3, that may be enough to propel the Switch into steady sales. Nintendo really needs to do a 180 though and make street pass a thing for the Switch. Recipe for success. The online cost, combined with requiring a smartphone is gonna hurt Nintendo big time though. Will be interesting to see the reception of that.
3DS also launched at a time where the mobile gaming market wasn't as strong as it is today.
Seems like extremely wishful thinking to me. The overall reaction to the console has been negative everywhere that I've seen, even here where half of us are diehard Nintendo fan boys. Nintendo isn't trying to compete with Sony or Microsoft, and the Switch is just too expensive for the casual market to pickup as a secondary console. I really hope that it sells 40mm, but I'm certainly not expecting it.
Well they were half right if PS4 keeps its pace
Skittzo0413
Member
The quote is actually "through" 2020, which would be December 31st, 2020. So 3.75 years.
yeah last i looked the desire for portable dedicated handheld system in the west was not that high, especially if its priced bonkers, so a lot of people not gonna care
AyraSutoraifu
Member
So Nintendo is going to exit the hardware business? Consolidating their handheld and home lines and doing only a fraction of their typical handheld business would end Nintendo as we know it.
They aren't saying 40 Million at $300. There will be price drops or bundles or revisions etc. It looks like the launch shipments will sell out at $300, and its sales trajectory will determine the holiday 2017 bundles/price drops.
ronaldthump
Member
13/millon units every year.
Um, yeah. Good luck with that
WiiU's LTD is 13 million
Um, yeah. Good luck with that
WiiU's LTD is 13 million
Barry Burton
Member
Not to mention if this thing gets off to a similar start as the 3DS, it will absolutely not still be $300 this holiday even.
DeathoftheEndless
Crashing this plane... with no survivors!
I could see it. If there mobile games continue being successful, their IP's will be red hot.
Majmun
Member
jabberwocker
Banned
Im not sure if much of gaf should be discerning this if they cant understand even what through 2020 means =p
onemanasylum
Banned
These guys have a history of awful predictions (x1 100 million, ps3 overtake 360 by 2009....etc..)
Yup. Which explains the drop off in recent years compared to the DS at the same point.
Joelstinton14
Member
Maybe on gaf, and comment sections, which aren;t really indicative of anything. Case in point gaf reactions to the wii, vita and 3ds.
Twitter and Youtube for example has been positive.
"Through 2020"
Skittzo0413
Member
Hahaha this is absolutely perfect
Scorpio.
mugurumakensei
Member
3DS started out slow though and has increased YoY despite the growth of mobile gaming at the same time.
I didn't realize I had to list out every million-plus selling 3DS game, I kinda thought the point was implied lol
SpookyBlackFish
Member
And they say Nintendo fans live in a bubble...
On those guessed numbers, phew, a little early to tell. It is out for a rather slow start, I'd expect. And the potential brutal (Handheld-) exclusives that tend to sell systems like crazy - I'm looking at you, Pokémon and Animal Crossing - are not even officially announced yet.
Duxxy3
Member
And I don't think people are going to give a shit about it being a hybrid. In japan it will be seen as a handheld. In the west it will be seen as a console.
It will sell out at launch, because everything does. Then sales are going to fall off a cliff, especially in the west.
No. They'll just make a handheld. Whether it's a continuation of the Switch line or 3DS line I don't know.
Lilalaunebaer
Member
Ohhhhhh. Read by in thread title and just didn´t see the through in the op.
onemanasylum
Banned
So are people who want console gaming on the go, or who spend 300 for a nintendo console at launch,.
LOL. Never, ever take a GAF reaction and even try to extrapolate that to the market at large. GAF is a highly critical enthusiasts' forum with people who care about things like how the reveal presentation was structured. The general mainstream audience don't even watch such presentations, but rather watch the youtube videos of the individual games and of the hardware reveal (the Nintendo Switch reveal trailer is already north of 25 million, and probably north of 30 million when you combine all nintendo youtube accounts). GAF has been negative about the Wii as well, so you see we are not indicative of how systems will play out.
The Switch has one very important thing going for it: no one thinks it is an add-on to the Wii. Just by that distinction from the WiiU, it will do quite a bit better. I doubt they will manage to reach 40 million in less than 4 years, but more than 10 million is practically a given already.
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