Barry Burton
Member
I think 30-40 million lifetime is what Nintendo will have to hit for Switch to at least be the modest success that they need it to be. I don't think that's an unreasonable prediction to make today.
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(Gamesindustry) Nintendo Switch to sell 40M units through 2020 - DFC Intel. report
- Thread starter Volotaire
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Interfectum
Member
lol perfect
InsaneTiger
Member
What did DFC say about the Wii U?
So around 13M per year ? I think it's optimistic but we'll see. It'll really depend on how many will do the jump from 3DS to the Switch.
Don't be ridiculous now.
Granted, combining the Wii U userbase and the 3DS userbase(even though i'm sure a significant portion of that WIi U userbase also has a 3DS) obviously means that the Switch should hit decent numbers in the long run, my skepticism with this generally is with the speed they expect Nintendo to sell units. Maybe in 6 years again they can sell 60 million with just their own software and the software they have supported 3DS and Wii U with, but i don't think its enough to actually accelerate their chances considering the competition
My guess is somewhere around 25 to 30 million in 2020, and if they go out to 2022-23 they can keep that growth stretching to say 50 million or 55.
My guess is somewhere around 25 to 30 million in 2020, and if they go out to 2022-23 they can keep that growth stretching to say 50 million or 55.
Dark Cloud
Member
They said by the end of 2020, which is about 4 years.
Yep if Switch reveal was such a disaster the videos they've uploaded would be littered with dislikes. Instead it seems mostly positive reception of all the game trailers and even parental controls.
That 90s fad? Pffffft. Nintendo hasn't had a fresh new popular ip I'm decades brah
Polygonal_Sprite
Gold Member
You need to realise that gaf represents less than a fraction of 1% of the market, especially the market Nintendo are aiming for. Switch will do fine when you consider it will sell the ten million you're quoting as it's lifetime sales in Japan alone.
Lilalaunebaer
Member
2017 (10 months of it), 2018 and 2019. 40 mil in 3 years. I can see it. Once it drops to 250 maybe next year i can see it selling really well.
"Gaf´s" opinion is generally irrelevant. I remember the meltdown with the Wii and the predictions that the WiiU would be the best selling console after the initial reveal that gen because the Wii sold so well.
We´ll see one way or the other.
"Gaf´s" opinion is generally irrelevant. I remember the meltdown with the Wii and the predictions that the WiiU would be the best selling console after the initial reveal that gen because the Wii sold so well.
We´ll see one way or the other.
40 million in 4 years seems like quite the challenge. The hardware is fairly appealing but is the price something that the consumer will adopt? I could see a slower burn that goes uphill.
I expect it to be closer to 30 million, give or take. Probably higher depending on how the market of 3DS owners will adopt the new console.
I expect it to be closer to 30 million, give or take. Probably higher depending on how the market of 3DS owners will adopt the new console.
Kingpin Rogers
Member
That's... bad. Really bad, right?
Unless it craters like the U, it seems fairly reasonable I think, perhaps even conservative if the hybrid concept really takes off.
The big question is how much the negatives (high price, pay online, chat through phones, motion gimmicks, dry initial launch lineup, questionable 3rd party support...) will impact sales once past the "honeymoon period" (hardcore Nintendo ebthusiasts).
Gotta say though that with a Zelda, Mario, Splatoon, Xenogears and perhaps even a Pokemon title hitting during Year One, Nintendo is at least trying its best shot at increasing the install base early on to try to kickstart the 3rd party interest.
It'll be up to Nintendo customers to show that they are not just buying a Nintendo-Title-Box only...
The big question is how much the negatives (high price, pay online, chat through phones, motion gimmicks, dry initial launch lineup, questionable 3rd party support...) will impact sales once past the "honeymoon period" (hardcore Nintendo ebthusiasts).
Gotta say though that with a Zelda, Mario, Splatoon, Xenogears and perhaps even a Pokemon title hitting during Year One, Nintendo is at least trying its best shot at increasing the install base early on to try to kickstart the 3rd party interest.
It'll be up to Nintendo customers to show that they are not just buying a Nintendo-Title-Box only...
Considering the current state of the mobile market, the WiiU, and the fact that Xbox is nowhere near breaking even 30m 3 years in (they'd have to sell basically as much as they sold in 3 years in 1 year to get there), this seems insane to me. This thing doesn't have the appeal of the 3DS. Neither does it have the appeal of the PS4. I don't think this is possible. Though if someone wants to hold a 3 year grudge on me and remind me in 2020 if Nintendo somehow break this, I guess I can change my avatar to a Nintendo character or something.
AyraSutoraifu
Member
My guess too. Max 25 in it's lifetime.
25 M units OR less lifetime as of 2013 (1 year into the Wii U lifecycle).
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2013-11-21-wii-u-to-see-lifetime-sales-of-25m-or-less-dfc
It is not Gamesindustry projecting. DFC Intelligence is the research firm who have projected the sales figures. Gamesindustry is reporting it.
25m (or less). That was (a year) *after* its launch though.
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2013-11-21-wii-u-to-see-lifetime-sales-of-25m-or-less-dfc
Duxxy3
Member
It's $300, going against cheaper, more powerful, systems with FAR larger libraries.
So no, I don't.
LMAO, you should never use gaf to predict the market. If GAF was right, moba and mobile games would be making no money right now.
Prisoner KSC2-303
Member
Possible, but I'd have thought about half that number was more realistic. We've yet to see what Nintendo's core market make of paid online yet.
Omega Kirby
Member
It could happen with a price drop and focus on core games.
F Zero, Wave Race, Metroid, Kirby etc. Have those games and you're going to attract many hardcore players that skipped the Wii U
F Zero, Wave Race, Metroid, Kirby etc. Have those games and you're going to attract many hardcore players that skipped the Wii U
This, plus Animal Crossing and Switch essentially becoming 'nu-Vita' for digital indie content. 3DS' natural decline will help too.
Well, they claim it to be a conservative estimate.
mugurumakensei
Member
Over 40 million .
Nah that is a decent estimate. 4 years x 10M per year.
Keep in mind that he Switch is a much more expensive console.
DFG...
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2013-11-21-wii-u-to-see-lifetime-sales-of-25m-or-less-dfc
That's after lowering...
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2013-11-21-wii-u-to-see-lifetime-sales-of-25m-or-less-dfc
That's after lowering...
Dear, it's 2017 already.
3 years
PS4 has sold 53 million in the last three years. Xbox One is somewhere around 25 million (I think).
40 million in 4 years would be a fairly major success.
They predicted 25 million in 1 year for WiiU?
Are we sure they arent a joke company?
Edit: oh ok, LTD
Not really. The industry isn't nearly as big as it used to be. For reference, the PS4, which has been selling gangbusters, has sold 56M worldwide in 3 years. The Xbox One comparatively sold 26M in the same time, and the 3DS sold 60M in 6 years. Somewhere between 30-60M for a new console through 4 years is probably going to be the new norm depending on how good the console is
Nintendo's brands are strong, but they would have to increase their sales significantly compared to what 3DS with all its multiple revisions and Wii U combined do to get that number.
And with the competition not slowing down, i feel like competing like that in the console space is a lot less optimistic than this. They aren't going to sell THAT many off of first party an Nintendo affiliated Japanese third party sales alone
And with the competition not slowing down, i feel like competing like that in the console space is a lot less optimistic than this. They aren't going to sell THAT many off of first party an Nintendo affiliated Japanese third party sales alone
Lifetime sales.
Dark Cloud
Member
And? It's a hybrid system and those aren't.
onemanasylum
Banned
Anyone who thinks pokemon alone is enough is Naive,
That's quite a number...
First off needs a pack in game. 1-2 switch should not be sold separately. End of discussion on that. Wii had Wii Sports and that was a great game to be bundled with the system. Can't recall if the original Wii U had Nintendoland or not but eventually the system came bundled with games worth it.
They then need games upon games. Metroid, Metroidvania style games of both Metroid and Castelvania, good RPGs, more Mario, another Eternal Darkness and much more. Pump them out!
First off needs a pack in game. 1-2 switch should not be sold separately. End of discussion on that. Wii had Wii Sports and that was a great game to be bundled with the system. Can't recall if the original Wii U had Nintendoland or not but eventually the system came bundled with games worth it.
They then need games upon games. Metroid, Metroidvania style games of both Metroid and Castelvania, good RPGs, more Mario, another Eternal Darkness and much more. Pump them out!
LTD. Prediction revision after 1 year on market.
So the predicted more than 25M before launch, can't find how much.
axisofweevils
Holy crap! Today's real megaton is that more than two people can have the same first name.
A large part of GAF also thought the 3DS would flop due to no second stick. Don't even get me started on the Vita TV.
CrispyBoar
Banned
NeoGAF isn't exactly the indicator of as to how many people are buying console hardware. This is a community based on a smaller hardcore base.
and so, do you think non gaming hobbyists care if it's a hypbrid??
Duxxy3
Member
The PS4 and XB1 are the Switch's competition in the west.
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