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[DrWong]

Mario Kart Wii is probably not a good indication of Mario Kart 8 or 9's sales potential. A lot of those games were selling to demographics who moved on from home consoles and dedicated handhelds.

Mario Kart and New Super Mario Bros had big crossover to the blue ocean audiences, which is why they sold so much better than their franchise norms. Stuff like Smash and Super Mario Galaxy were also up compared to titles before and after, but not by nearly the same margin.

Sales potential is between 15 millions (MK7 3DS) / 20 millions I believe.

 

[Kawngi]

Really promising start for Nintendo. I'm loving my Switch so far in a way I never really did with their last couple consoles.

 

[Chessr]

I'm hoping they see all the money they've made and bring back other IPs...like Castlevania.

Lucky you then
Konami Said they could bring out other old series if bomberman gonna do well

 

[Kikorin]

Glad is doing great, but to me the real explosion will be this holiday. I predict Switch+Odissey, Switch+Splatoon 2 and Switch+Mario Kart 8D bundle, not considering Arms, Xenoblade 2 and Smash that will probably be announced this E3.

If Nintendo will also drop price at 299€ Switch will be huge pretty quickly.

 

[schwabdizzle]

The only way the Switch will eclipse the Wii is IF Nintendo does not make a 3DS successor and focuses all studios on the Switch. If they decide to make another handheld that will divide their market and the Switch will maybe hit 40 million tops.

 

[Jaded Alyx]

Glad is doing great, but to me the real explosion will be this holiday. I predict Switch+Odissey, Switch+Splatoon 2 and Switch+Mario Kart 8D bundle, not considering Arms, Xenoblade 2 and Smash that will probably be announced this E3.

If Nintendo will also drop price at 299€ Switch will be huge pretty quickly.

There is no chance they will bundle Switch with either Mario or Splatoon 2 so soon.

 

[Skittzo0413]

The only way the Switch will eclipse the Wii is IF Nintendo does not make a 3DS successor and focuses all studios on the Switch. If they decide to make another handheld that will divide their market and the Switch will maybe hit 40 million tops.

This is already happening. They have 9 first party titles planned that we already know of for the first 9 months. Nobody should be expecting a different 3DS successor.

There is no chance they will bundle Switch with either Mario or Splatoon 2 so soon.

Eh I could see a Splatoon 2 bundle in Japan and a MK8D bundle in EU/NA around the holidays.

Possibly also a FIFA bundle if those rumors about the marketing deal with EA were true.

 

[benjammin]

Glad that it's doing so well, but still a lot of issues to iron out. Hopefully Nintendo fixes the joycon problems so I can play mine on my projector!

 

[schuelma]

This is already happening. They have 9 first party titles planned for the first 9 months. Nobody should be expecting a different 3DS successor.

Right. Fire Emblem and Pokemon are already basically confirmed as Switch titles going forward. I expect Animal Crossing soon as well. Its very clear what the plan is.

 

[Ethelwulf]

DOA

Everytime I see this I think of Dragon Age, don't know why. Dragon Origin Ages?

 

[kswiston]

nintendo obviously made the right move to wait. i don't know why it's 'nintendo being nintendo' to, after the poor sell-through of the wii u, to approach their new platform conservatively. focusing their marketing dollars between a 7 week period that included commercials, nationwide tours, and a superbowl ad, instead of starting at e3 or even in october and working against holiday season news seemed to work out rather well for them, and now they're going to double their initial forecast based on the positive launch. using preorders to gauge interest is a sound way to do things, but i think the way the launch and marketing cycle for the switch worked out was essentially perfect. the only thing that really needed some adjusting was their dumb january conference.

Even if they were going to keep their marketing approach, I don't see why producing so few units makes much sense. Nintendo being Nintendo is them not wanting to potentially pay for warehoused stock, even in the short term. If Switch was going to sell like Wii U, it wouldn't really matter if they shipped/produced 2M vs 3M units at launch. Their entire sales platform and 2017/2018 sales strategy would be torpedoed. If Switch sold well (which it is), they would have more units available for launch period, and would have at the very least sold more software for their third party launch partners. I'm sure that June's Switch buyer is still going to want Breath of the Wild, but are people going to care about Bomberman or some of the other smaller titles by then?

 

[Hero]

nintendo obviously made the right move to wait. i don't know why it's 'nintendo being nintendo' to, after the poor sell-through of the wii u, to approach their new platform conservatively. focusing their marketing dollars between a 7 week period that included commercials, nationwide tours, and a superbowl ad, instead of starting at e3 or even in october and working against holiday season news seemed to work out rather well for them, and now they're going to double their initial forecast based on the positive launch. using preorders to gauge interest is a sound way to do things, but i think the way the launch and marketing cycle for the switch worked out was essentially perfect. the only thing that really needed some adjusting was their dumb january conference.

Yep, so much this. People in the more hardcore market (i.e. most of us here) did not see Nintendo's strategy on it but so far it's paying off in spades. And agree the Japanese oriented conference was the only stumble they had.

Even if they were going to keep their marketing approach, I don't see why producing so few units makes much sense. Nintendo being Nintendo is them not wanting to potentially pay for warehoused stock, even in the short term. If Switch was going to sell like Wii U, it wouldn't really matter if they shipped/produced 2M vs 3M units at launch. Their entire sales platform and 2017/2018 sales strategy would be torpedoed. If Switch sold well (which it is), they would have more units available for launch period, and would have at the very least sold more software for their third party launch partners. I'm sure that June's Switch buyer is still going to want Breath of the Wild, but are people going to care about Bomberman or some of the other smaller titles by then?

I think you're not understanding how terrible Wii U sold after the first two months. They had tons of unsold inventory and because of how much they overproduced it, had them just flooding the channels or gathering dust. Nobody has ever launched hardware in the March period globally so they were being conservative with their numbers and predictions. Fortunately they have built in a flexibility option for the best/better case scenario which is the timeline we're in now.

 

[Ombala]

Everytime I see this I think of Dragon Age, don't know why. Dragon Origin Ages?

Its just your mind playing you a trick the short version of the first game was.
DAO.

 

[TankRizzo]

I bought an extra set of neon joycons because of the color schemes lol

 

[kswiston]

I think you're not understanding how terrible Wii U sold after the first two months. They had tons of unsold inventory and because of how much they overproduced it, had them just flooding the channels or gathering dust. Nobody has ever launched hardware in the March period globally so they were being conservative with their numbers and predictions. Fortunately they have built in a flexibility option for the best/better case scenario which is the timeline we're in now.

Nintendo launched the 3DS globally in March. Unless the Feb 26th release in Japan negates that somehow.

EDIT: If their production pipeline is adequate to meet most of the switch demand within the next 6 months or so, I guess this isn't a terrible predicament for Nintendo to be in. It still seems like an initial 2M shipment target in launch month was needlessly conservative. Wii U didn't sell well, but I'm pretty sure that even the Wii U's sellthrough was in the 2M+ range by the end of December 2012.

EDIT 2: US + Japan was a bit over 1.5M for the Wii U by Dec 31st according to NPD + Media Create.

 

[MTC100]

What do people need 4 joycons for? 12switch?

more joy, more cons!

 

[PSFan]

Nintendo launched the 3DS globally in March. Unless the Feb 26th release in Japan negates that somehow.

It does negate that? Globally means everywhere at the same time, not one region getting it a month before the rest of the world.

 

[Alter_Fridge]

I bought an extra set of neon joycons because of the color schemes lol

That was never Nintendo's plan at all

 

[grumble]

It will be really hard for Nintendo to break wii numbers without either big third party support (doesn't need to be the hardcore publishers, but the mainstream guys need to step up) or a gimmick. There is a gimmick, but it's not as impressive as motion controls. There will be issues with aaa ports due to processing power.

I think we'll see a dip mid year as content is low, then this fall it's do or die to get enough good titles out.

 

[Alter_Fridge]

Wii managed to connect phenomenally with the middle aged to older women bracket, I don't see how the Switch will corner them this time.

 

[Plum]

This is already happening. They have 9 first party titles planned for the first 9 months. Nobody should be expecting a different 3DS successor.

Nah, Kimishima leaving doors open for a 3DS successor if the Switch fails totally means they're making one though. Just you wait! They even said it's a home console first and foremost for the home-console focused US market!

 

[schuelma]

. There is a gimmick, but it's not as impressive as motion controls. There will be issues with aaa ports due to processing power.
.

I agree that on its surface, the "switch" factor isn't as immediately appealing as Wii Sports was. However, I believe the play console games anywhere "gimmick" holds a lot more appeal to traditional gamers and could be more sustaining than motion controls were.

 

[Zedark]

Nah, Kimishima leaving doors open for a 3DS successor if the Switch fails totally means they're making one though. Just you wait! They even said it's a home console first and foremost for the home-console focused US market!

Absolutely agree. But don't believe Reggie's lies!!!

 

[kswiston]

It does negate that? Globally means everywhere at the same time, not one region getting it a month before the rest of the world.

Do you think that makes any difference for gauging the realities of a major console launch in March? I mean, technically Nintendo has never had a worldwide release in any month, so I guess they can't gauge a global November release as well.

 

[Randall365]

The Wii U was not great, but in fairness, when was the last time a Nintendo console launched with big Mario, Mario Kart and Zelda releases in the first 9 months? I think Nintendo saw this coming to a certain extent and solidified it with the short-stocking of the NES Mini.

It feels like the SNES days at the moment - real positive signs for Nintendo, and as someone who did not buy a Gamecube or Wii U (and sold the Wii within 6 months), that is great news.

My fear is next year - unless we have another big three releases, then the console would die without third party support.

 

[Hero]

Nintendo launched the 3DS globally in March. Unless the Feb 26th release in Japan negates that somehow.

EDIT: If their production pipeline is adequate to meet most of the switch demand within the next 6 months or so, I guess this isn't a terrible predicament for Nintendo to be in. It still seems like an initial 2M shipment target in launch month was needlessly conservative. Wii U didn't sell well, but I'm pretty sure that even the Wii U's sellthrough was in the 2M+ range by the end of December 2012.

EDIT 2: US + Japan was a bit over 1.5M for the Wii U by Dec 31st according to NPD + Media Create.

Sorry, you are correct that 3DS launched globally, I was thinking more console oriented.

However, look at the 3DS launch. Too high of a price and terrible launch games, even first party ones.

 

[thestopsign]

The biggest test for the Switch is going to be from now until Mario. It may have a lot of games, but not many of them are 'big' games and it'll have to deal with being a Zelda and ports box until ARMs and Splatoon are out. If the system is still healthy by Fire Emblem Warriors and if Skyrim sells well the system is going to have a really bright future.

People are going to be surprised when Mario Kart and Splatoon top the charts in the months they come out pretty much worldwide. I bet Splatoon pulls over 500k in its first month in NA and more than that in Japan. The typical pattern for a game that has legs is for the sequel to be more front loaded, which is what you will see here. It will move systems.

People counting Mario Kart as a port are missing its potential also. It won't feel like a port to the majority, that series is perfect for a hybrid console. It works well on home consoles and portables.

 

[schwabdizzle]

This is already happening. They have 9 first party titles planned that we already know of for the first 9 months. Nobody should be expecting a different 3DS successor

They have also gone on record saying they are exploring the idea of making a successor as well, to be fair.

 

[SporeCrawler]

People are going to be surprised when Mario Kart and Splatoon top the charts in the months they come out pretty much worldwide. I bet Splatoon pulls over 500k in its first month in NA and more than that in Japan. The typical pattern for a game that has legs is for the sequel to be more front loaded, which is what you will see here. It will move systems.

People counting Mario Kart as a port are missing its potential also. It won't feel like a port to the majority, that series is perfect for a hybrid console. It works well on home consoles and portables.

I see Mario Kart 8 DX as a successor to Mario Kart 7 more than as a port of Mario Kart 8.

Mario Kart DS had a strong legacy which helped that mediocre 7 sell well. Its about damn time that portable Mario Kart meets the best Mario Kart ever (does that make sense?).

 

[kswiston]

Sorry, you are correct that 3DS launched globally, I was thinking more console oriented.

However, look at the 3DS launch. Too high of a price and terrible launch games, even first party ones.

This is true.

I guess if we take March/April 2011 NPD sales to be roughly analogous to the full month of March that Switch is getting, the 3DS moved a bit less than 600k in the US. That first month in Japan was a bit less than 800k. I suppose that they could have gone with a similar target in the US, and a smaller target in Japan for their initial March shipments to avoid unsold stock. Add the rest of the world into that, and you'd probably get something in the neighbourhood of 2M.

Either way, the Switch shows promise so far. Hopefully Nintendo keeps up on re-shipments, and the demand holds through the next few months.

 

[Calamari41]

My fear is next year - unless we have another big three releases, then the console would die without third party support.

It wouldn't be insanity to expect something along the lines of mainline Animal Crossing, Retro's next game, Xenoblade 2 (if delayed, as many are expecting), Smash 4 (if not out this year), and mainline Fire Emblem releasing as tentpoles in the first half of next year alone. A lot of Nintendo's studios are "unaccounted for" at the moment and due for releases within the next year and a half to two years.

There are other posters on here who are more well-versed on this kind of thing who could probably list off some of the studios who are "due" by the first half of next year.

 

[Circinus]

If I remember correctly, they said similar things about the Wii U.

http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=492579

http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=501624

 

[Skittzo0413]

My fear is next year - unless we have another big three releases, then the console would die without third party support.

You may be worried about that, but that's actually what has me incredibly excited. We have no idea what's coming next year. We have no idea what Retro has been working on, we can expect something new from Game Freak, the Mario team has apparently been finished with Mario Odyssey for a while, and all of the traditionally handheld teams will have new things to announce. Not to mention the third parties that typically release games for handhelds/3DS.

I also think third party support will come fairly strongly IF these "Wii-like" sales actually continue throughout the year. Which is possible, but definitely not certain.

They have also gone on record saying they are exploring the idea of making a successor as well, to be fair.

This is false. That was a mistranslation that was rushed out to twitter. They said they are always considering new hardware when asked about whether or not the Switch was portable enough to replace the 3DS. Nothing about an explicit "3DS successor" at all has ever been said by anyone at Nintendo. The actual evidence shows us that there is no separate 3DS successor planned, as the Switch has far more first party titles in its first 9 months than the Wii U or 3DS had. And that's just the games we know of before E3.

 

[rockyt]

I bought an extra set joy con and 3 adapters. 1 adapter for home, one foe work, anx one to carry with me. Oh screen protectoe and a case.

Basically i ended up buying more stuff and games with the switch than previous nintendo consoles, handheld,xbox, and plasystations, which is weiex foe a scrooge like me.

 

[Magwik]

People are going to be surprised when Mario Kart and Splatoon top the charts in the months they come out pretty much worldwide. I bet Splatoon pulls over 500k in its first month in NA and more than that in Japan. The typical pattern for a game that has legs is for the sequel to be more front loaded, which is what you will see here. It will move systems.

People counting Mario Kart as a port are missing its potential also. It won't feel like a port to the majority, that series is perfect for a hybrid console. It works well on home consoles and portables.

Mario Kart should not be underestimated. It's probably the perfect game that works with the nature of the system, and is the best to showcase the system as well.

 

[Zedark]

It wouldn't be insanity to expect something along the lines of mainline Animal Crossing, Retro's next game, Xenoblade 2 (if delayed, as many are expecting), Smash 4 (if not out this year), and mainline Fire Emblem releasing as tentpoles in the first half of next year alone. A lot of Nintendo's studios are "unaccounted for" at the moment and due for releases within the next year and a half to two years.

Talking about unaccounted for, can someone explain to me how the Mario games development is approximately organised within Nintendo? Do they have separate teams for 3D Mario, 2D Mario and Mario Kart and can we therefore expect a 2D Mario some time in the near future, or do the 3D and 2D Mario have their development situated in the same team?

 

[thestopsign]

This is true.

I guess if we take March/April 2011 NPD sales to be roughly analogous to the full month of March that Switch is getting, the 3DS moved a bit less than 600k in the US. That first month in Japan was a bit less than 800k. I suppose that they could have gone with a similar target in the US, and a smaller target in Japan for their initial March shipments to avoid unsold stock. Add the rest of the world into that, and you'd probably get something in the neighbourhood of 2M.

Either way, the Switch shows promise so far. Hopefully Nintendo keeps up on re-shipments, and the demand holds through the next few months.

3DS shipments were much higher than sell through to consumer in that launch period which is why shipments were so low in FY 2011 Q1 for it. The Switch will really have roughly equivalent sell through, just lower shipments.

 

[perfectchaos007]

Nintendo should continue to market it as a handheld because I see way more value in the system as a handheld. As a home console, its very weak, but as a handheld its one of the most powerful gaming tablets on the market that you can play on your TV if you want. Personally, I have only used it for TV play around 5% of the time

 

[kswiston]

3DS shipments were much higher than sell through to consumer in that launch period which is why shipments were so low in FY 2011 Q1 for it. The Switch will really have roughly equivalent sell through, just lower shipments.

That's what I meant. Switch shipments might have been based on 3DS sell-through in the west/US.

 

[jmizzal]

If I remember correctly, they said similar things about the Wii U.

Link? when did they say WiiU could eclipse Wii?

 

[Majukun]

find it hard to believe, but if they say it ,it must be true

problem is after zelda there is really little available oinn the console..i wonder if they can keep this thing going in the following months

 

[killatopak]

Link? when did they say WiiU could eclipse Wii?

I remember them shipping a large amount at launch so they probably expected a lot.

 

[Peltz]

It will be really hard for Nintendo to break wii numbers without either big third party support (doesn't need to be the hardcore publishers, but the mainstream guys need to step up) or a gimmick. There is a gimmick, but it's not as impressive as motion controls. There will be issues with aaa ports due to processing power.

I think we'll see a dip mid year as content is low, then this fall it's do or die to get enough good titles out.

The "gimmick" is that it's the only dedicated gaming handheld being made by one of the three major hardware manufacturers. I'd say that's a potentially stronger feature than motion controls depending on the market.

Nintendo should continue to market it as a handheld because I see way more value in the system as a handheld. As a home console, its very weak, but as a handheld its one of the most powerful gaming tablets on the market that you can play on your TV if you want. Personally, I have only used it for TV play around 5% of the time

I'm the opposite. It's been docked about 95% of the time for me. That's what makes this device so marketable. We are both using it very differently.

 

[TS-08]

Nintendo should continue to market it as a handheld because I see way more value in the system as a handheld. As a home console, its very weak, but as a handheld its one of the most powerful gaming tablets on the market that you can play on your TV if you want. Personally, I have only used it for TV play around 5% of the time

They should continue to market it as a hybrid console because as a hybrid console it essentially has no equal.

 

[jmizzal]

I remember them shipping a large amount at launch so they probably expected a lot.

I'm talking post launch after sales actually happened

 

[Calamari41]

Talking about unaccounted for, can someone explain to me how the Mario games development is approximately organised within Nintendo? Do they have separate teams for 3D Mario, 2D Mario and Mario Kart and can we therefore expect a 2D Mario sometimes in the near future, or do the 3D and 2D Mario have their development situated in the same team?

I believe they are three different teams, yes. I would assume that the 2D Mario Team's latest game was Mario Maker, meaning that they should be due for either a port of that soon or a new game within the next couple of years. In time for next Christmas, perhaps?

 

[Skittzo0413]

Nintendo should continue to market it as a handheld because I see way more value in the system as a handheld. As a home console, its very weak, but as a handheld its one of the most powerful gaming tablets on the market that you can play on your TV if you want. Personally, I have only used it for TV play around 5% of the time

The hybrid nature emphasizes more than just both of those- it emphasizes versatility and quality of life, which is probably the entire point of the hybrid. It's not just a handheld, it's not just a console, so call it both. There was a thread here not long ago basically saying that the portability isn't the best part, it's the fact that it can be whatever you want it to be whenever you want.

They focus mainly on console to ensure people know it will get full console games though. But the actual use of the device shown in ads is like 75% portable.

 

[Peltz]

Talking about unaccounted for, can someone explain to me how the Mario games development is approximately organised within Nintendo? Do they have separate teams for 3D Mario, 2D Mario and Mario Kart and can we therefore expect a 2D Mario sometimes in the near future, or do the 3D and 2D Mario have their development situated in the same team?

Yes, 3D Mario is a studio in Tokyo, 2D Mario is a separate studio (technically there is more than one 2D Mario team though), and Mario Kart is indeed another separate studio that is currently making ARMS.

 

[Interfectum]

Nintendo should continue to market it as a handheld because I see way more value in the system as a handheld. As a home console, its very weak, but as a handheld its one of the most powerful gaming tablets on the market that you can play on your TV if you want. Personally, I have only used it for TV play around 5% of the time

They should continue to market it as a hybrid and people can decide how to best use the system. It's working.

 

[Ragnar Blackmane]

Everytime I see this I think of Dragon Age, don't know why. Dragon Origin Ages?

Not to mention The DOA-12 shotgun, the classic in modern Battlefield games.