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(Hardware) October 2010 NPD Predictions - Closes November 9th

jvm

Gamasutra.
Jun 22, 2004
9,164
5
1,485
cgmr.net
I don't know if Michael intends to put out his notes tomorrow morning (he said it would come this week) but I want to be in front of that.

[360] 340K
[NDS] 350K
[PS3] 230K
[PSP] 84K
[WII] 260K
 
Jun 10, 2004
1,274
15
1,420
39
Almost forgot this month ... :(



[360] 360K
[NDS] 360K
[PS3] 275K
[PSP] 95K
[WII] 26K


Edit of 11/11 before any data comes out

FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU..

i've just realized that i've wrote "[WII] 26K " :(

i meant 260K but.. if it's too late for that, then.. i'm done for the year :(

please accept that :(

sigh
 

donny2112

Member
Apr 18, 2005
18,797
1
0
~3.5 hours left to predict for October's NPD.

P.S. Thanks to whoever changed the thread title! :)
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
Jun 22, 2004
9,164
5
1,485
cgmr.net
FWIW, the NPD Group just sent out planned dates for the next three releases:
October 2010 sales release: Nov. 16, 2010 (as expected in this thread)
November 2010 sales release: Dec. 9, 2010
December 2010/year-end sales release: Jan. 13, 2011

Those are official ... until they're changed, of course!
 

donny2112

Member
Apr 18, 2005
18,797
1
0
October 2010 NPD Predictions

GAF_Agg

1. 360 - 379K
2. NDS - 372K
3. PS3 - 283K
4. WII - 266K
5. PSP - 89K


GAF_spec

1. 360 - 369K
2. NDS - 350K
3. PS3 - 278K
4. WII - 257K
5. PSP - 91K
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
Jun 22, 2004
9,164
5
1,485
cgmr.net
Don't have time for a table today. Sorry. Someone else format it, if it matters.

Pachter
Wii: 205K
PS3: 265K
360: 395K
PS2: 40K
PSP: 80K
NDS: 350K

EEDAR
Wii: 200K
PS3: 280K
360: 360K
PS2: --
PSP: 70K
NDS: 340K
 

Sho_Nuff82

Member
Jan 2, 2007
39,634
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0
jvm said:
Don't have time for a table today. Sorry. Someone else format it, if it matters.

Pachter
Wii: 205K
PS3: 265K
360: 395K
PS2: 40K
PSP: 80K
NDS: 350K

EEDAR
Wii: 200K
PS3: 280K
360: 360K
PS2: --
PSP: 70K
NDS: 340K
Any particular reason Pachter and Eedar see Wii bottoming out just as the holiday season begins and Wii Party releases? 200k seems awfully low, and would be a 60% drop yoy. I also would have predicted Wii 3rd, but not by such huge margins.
 

donny2112

Member
Apr 18, 2005
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Hiro_Kunimi_80 said:
i've just edited my prediction :(
Sorry. :( On the good side, you're 25 points ahead of doicare for the year, so it doesn't necessarily kill the year. Missing the month would've been worse.

On that topic, assuming that we can continue predictions next year, any ideas to make missing a month less impactful?

We have the last three months column, which is at least something for people who start predicting late. However, the yearly rankings are most often the same group of people that predicted every month, even if they weren't consistently the best (looking in a mirror here :lol ). I'd rather not do something like putting in a default prediction for a missed month, since that's artificially adjusting their score. But what about taking the n-1 top months when determining the yearly prediction rankings? e.g. After October, only the top 9 months are used for the yearly totals. That way, if you miss a month, it would get thrown out. Missing two would still give you a zero for a month, though.

Thoughts?
 

timetokill

Banned
Oct 19, 2004
32,841
0
0
Los Angeles, CA
donny2112 said:
On that topic, assuming that we can continue predictions next year, any ideas to make missing a month less impactful?
I'd been hoping you'd do that for a while, actually. I think you could just do a "drop the lowest score" thing for everybody and that would help a ton. I think a lot of people miss a month and then feel the whole thing's a waste for the rest of the year. I know that since I missed last month I'm feeling pretty sour about it now :lol

Maybe at the end of this year you could drop everybody's lowest and put that up as a comparison shot, even if it's not the "official" rankings for this year.
 

dolemite

Member
Oct 21, 2007
3,202
0
0
Deutschland
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Why has the NPD been moved to Tuesday? (OP says results release on November 16th)
it's supposed to be released today but the release date got delayed to next Tuesday due to the holiday.
 

doicare

Member
May 14, 2006
2,132
0
0
donny2112 said:
On that topic, assuming that we can continue predictions next year, any ideas to make missing a month less impactful?
Yeah i think missing a month or two ruins it for the rest of the year and people just drop out instead of carrying on. I know it would mean more work :D but as well as the overall best score from 12 months, if their was also an overall score taken from the best 9 or 10 months then that would make things better.
 

Gadfly

While flying into a tree he exclaimed "Egad!"
Apr 16, 2007
2,616
0
0
Kirkland, WA
donny2112 said:
Sorry. :( On the good side, you're 25 points ahead of doicare for the year, so it doesn't necessarily kill the year. Missing the month would've been worse.

On that topic, assuming that we can continue predictions next year, any ideas to make missing a month less impactful?

We have the last three months column, which is at least something for people who start predicting late. However, the yearly rankings are most often the same group of people that predicted every month, even if they weren't consistently the best (looking in a mirror here :lol ). I'd rather not do something like putting in a default prediction for a missed month, since that's artificially adjusting their score. But what about taking the n-1 top months when determining the yearly prediction rankings? e.g. After October, only the top 9 months are used for the yearly totals. That way, if you miss a month, it would get thrown out. Missing two would still give you a zero for a month, though.

Thoughts?
I think you should develop a ranking scheme similar to what is used in chess. The more you play, the higher the chances of raising (or lowering) your rating. But if you don't play, your ranking will take a hit as well (I am not sure if this is included in chess ranking).

Having prediction close to the actual number would be similar to beating a high rank player. Being too off is similar to getting beaten by a low rank player.
 

Penguin

Member
Jun 15, 2004
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NPD Oct numbers: Xbox 360 sold 325k consoles. So far, it is the best selling console in 2010 w/ 3.5 M Year To Date sold
Didn't say best selling of the month, but guess it might be.

Major Nelson
http://twitter.com/#!/majornelson/status/4672913189904384
 
Jan 8, 2009
1,109
0
0
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RT @majornelson: NPD Oct numbers: Xbox 360 sold 325k consoles. So far, it is the best selling console in 2010 w/ 3.5 M Year To Date sold

Edit: Beat. Twice.
 

Jtyettis

Member
Jan 18, 2007
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1,060
Penguin said:
Didn't say best selling of the month, but guess it might be.

Major Nelson
http://twitter.com/#!/majornelson/status/4672913189904384
Would be hard not to be with such a slim margin left from last month over Wii YTD. With that said I'm really interested in the rest of the HW for the month.
 

Gadfly

While flying into a tree he exclaimed "Egad!"
Apr 16, 2007
2,616
0
0
Kirkland, WA
DMeisterJ said:
Major Nelson didn't say best selling... Wii comeback?
Could be.

Or that could be considered giving away numbers for other consoles which given his position (he is not a major exec or anything) might be problematic.

More likely the former.
 

Jtyettis

Member
Jan 18, 2007
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If one chooses hardware, then the Xbox 360 now appears to be tied with the Wii for the best selling platform of 2010. The data provided by the NPD Group actually puts the Xbox 360 up by just over 10,000 units, but we consider that small enough fall within the margin of error. Let us say that both systems have sold just over 3.2 million systems so far in 2010 and call it even.
Only a 10k unit difference as of last month.
 

NHale

Member
Mar 3, 2009
5,291
0
0
Penguin said:
Didn't say best selling of the month, but guess it might be.

Major Nelson
http://twitter.com/#!/majornelson/status/4672913189904384
The fact that he didn't said that but at the same time said "best selling console in 2010" ("forgot" the "in the US") makes me believe the Wii made a comeback.

EDIT: Or not. :lol
 

Road

Member
Jan 21, 2008
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sites.google.com
Jtyettis said:
Only a 10k unit difference as of last month.
Hmm... I had never seen that comment.

So, I guess it is possible it sold 9,999 less than the Wii this month. :lol

EDIT: Oh, it was on Gamasutra's NPD feature. I guess my memory is failing me. Anyways.
 

Aad

Member
Sep 16, 2009
950
0
780
My worst prediction of the year, over predicted by a huge margin.
 

botticus

Member
Jun 15, 2007
3,438
0
0
donny2112 said:
On that topic, assuming that we can continue predictions next year, any ideas to make missing a month less impactful?
I don't know that I'd advocate any change that affects the actual rankings. I've missed two months (never even saw this thread, sheesh), so I'm toast, but I'd be curious to see how the rankings change as we start stripping out 1 or 2 bad months, to measure the impact.

One thing I've always thought would be nice would be an additional ranking by average points per prediction. This way missed months are removed. Maybe throw in a "(minimum [total/2] months) or something to omit people who had a lucky month and never predicted again.

Is there any way we might get a "NPD Predictions Index" thread or something of that sort? Something that one could subscribe to, where you could just drop in a new post linking to the new predictions thread. Subscriptions are pretty much the only way I can keep up with the forum nowadays.
 

donny2112

Member
Apr 18, 2005
18,797
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October 2010 NPD Prediction Results

Units

1. archnemesis - 60,600
2. Saiyar - 75,600
3. jvm - 81,600
3. Road - 81,600
5. NeoUltima - 84,600
6. Baki - 86,600
6. Megadragon15 - 86,600
8. scottnak - 88,400
9. Zero-Crescent - 92,600
10. Jonsoncao - 93,600
11. Ydahs - 97,600
11. rostocker - 97,600
13. VegaShinra - 101,600
14. Jesse2040 - 102,400
15. Brakara - 110,600
16. N.A - 125,600
17. Pachter - 126,600
18. donny2112 - 127,600
19. Orgen - 134,600
20. Strike - 141,600
21. Jokeropia - 150,600
22. miladesn - 151,600
23. skedar897 - 152,600
24. jj984jj - 156,600
25. doicare - 157,600
26. GAF_Agg - 165,700
27. timetokill - 166,600
28. confuziz - 167,600
29. bakemono - 170,600
30. Instro - 187,600
31. SonicX_Zero - 199,600
32. rayner - 202,600
33. Averon - 232,600
34. Goldmund - 238,600
35. jonnybryce - 252,400
36. Osuwari - 267,600
37. Hammer24 - 277,600
38. u_neek - 287,600
39. Hiro_Kunimi_80 - 305,600
39. LiquidMetal14 - 305,600
41. Scott32020 - 307,600
42. Gamemaster_ca_2003 - 321,600
43. Aad - 327,600
43. WaltJay - 327,600
45. sciplore - 347,600
46. I NEED SCISSORS - 449,400
47. perfectchaos007 - 484,400
48. JBuccCP - 529,396



Points

Code:
     October 2010                Last 3 Months                Overall 2010
1.   archnemesis       119.93    Jesse2040           306.47   Hiro_Kunimi_80      918.66
2.   Baki              103.75    archnemesis         303.46   Jesse2040           909.04
3.   jvm               102.71    jvm                 297.39   doicare             908.69
4.   Saiyar            102.62    Jonsoncao           293.36   confuziz            893.62
5.   Road              102.1     Saiyar              291.13   Jonsoncao           877.84
6.   NeoUltima         100.29    scottnak            288.98   Saiyar              875.14
7.   Megadragon15       98.19    Road                285.35   Strike              874.75
8.   scottnak           96.21    Ydahs               282.02   Pachter             871.96
9.   confuziz           95.06    rostocker           277.36   jvm                 864.21
10.  Jokeropia          93.16    NeoUltima           274.59   bakemono            863.75
11.  Jesse2040          91.64    N.A                 274.06   Jokeropia           859.03
12.  Instro             90.91    Jokeropia           273.49   Brakara             856.52
13.  Ydahs              90.32    Zero-Crescent       270.41   scottnak            853.68
14.  rostocker          90.23    confuziz            269.34   rostocker           848.21
15.  Pachter            89.9     Strike              268.8    N.A                 838.06
16.  Zero-Crescent      89.65    miladesn            268.37   donny2112           833.44
17.  Jonsoncao          88.91    Pachter             268.17   NeoUltima           823.84
18.  Brakara            88.8     Megadragon15        267.72   archnemesis         820.14
19.  VegaShinra         88.78    SonicX_Zero         267.41   Orgen               811.74
20.  N.A                88.11    Brakara             266.9    jj984jj             805.36
21.  skedar897          87.78    Osuwari             266.6    Megadragon15        801.56
22.  Orgen              87.31    bakemono            264.89   Scott32020          792.2
23.  donny2112          86.7     donny2112           264.4    Ydahs               791.63
24.  doicare            86.11    doicare             261.93   Osuwari             790.33
25.  Strike             85.95    jj984jj             261.27   Aad                 784.33
26.  jj984jj            84.97    skedar897           259.88   Road                771.57
27.  miladesn           84.9     Hiro_Kunimi_80      258.17   dragct              771.23
28.  timetokill         84.44    Scott32020          255.79   skedar897           771.13
29.  Averon             83.28    Orgen               254.32   timetokill          741.07
30.  Goldmund           82.45    Aad                 249.34   SonicX_Zero         738.69
31.  bakemono           81.85    sciplore            232.34   Gamemaster_ca_2003  717.78
32.  SonicX_Zero        81.66    Gamemaster_ca_2003  227.45   andy_lhc            717.73
33.  jonnybryce         81.33    perfectchaos007     223.4    Sadist              708.33
34.  rayner             80.66    operon              222.61   WaltJay             706.47
35.  Osuwari            76.79    Averon              200.36   starship            691.1
36.  Gamemaster_ca_2003 74.85    manzo               196.04   lowlylowlycook      675.73
37.  Scott32020         74.09    pitseleh            186.07   perfectchaos007     668.18
38.  WaltJay            73.74    Sadist              184.95   Averon              652.11
39.  LiquidMetal14      72.54    VegaShinra          182.99   modulaire           649.05
40.  Hiro_Kunimi_80     71.15    timetokill          181.91   seady               647.84
41.  Hammer24           70.7     seady               178.93   VegaShinra          635.12
42.  u_neek             69.74    crazy monkey        177.69   sciplore            626.59
43.  sciplore           68.39    lowlylowlycook      176.39   BLaZiN PRopHeT      601.61
44.  Aad                68.3     Goldmund            174.32   boontje             596.23
45.  I NEED SCISSORS    63.17    andy_lhc            174.11   pitseleh            592.09
46.  JBuccCP            57.33    dragct              170.31   user_nat            591.61
47.  perfectchaos007    56.41    rayner              164.71   botticus            591.52
48.                              WaltJay             149.34   SuperBanjo          591.42
49.                              Square Triangle     111.54   JoshuaJSlone        588.76
50.                              Baki                103.75   rayner              558.99
Congratulations, archnemesis! :D
 

NeoUltima

Member
Jul 31, 2007
8,447
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0
It's a shame, I originally was going to have some of my numbers even lower,particularly 360, but then I saw other posts showing high numbers so I increased mine a bit. Lesson? Don't be influenced by others. o well, 5th place is still great :)
 

donny2112

Member
Apr 18, 2005
18,797
1
0
botticus said:
One thing I've always thought would be nice would be an additional ranking by average points per prediction. This way missed months are removed. Maybe throw in a "(minimum [total/2] months) or something to omit people who had a lucky month and never predicted again.
Did that for a couple of months, but 1) a fourth column isn't easily noticed, which might've led to 2) no one seemed to care. :lol

Here's the average score through 10 months, minimum 7 months predicting.

1. Hiro_Kunimi_80 - 91.87
2. Jesse2040 - 90.9
3. doicare - 90.87
4. confuziz - 89.36
5. Jonsoncao - 87.78
6. Saiyar - 87.51
7. Strike - 87.48
8. Pachter - 87.2
9. jvm - 86.42
10. starship - 86.39
11. bakemono - 86.38
12. BLaZiN PRopHeT - 85.94
13. Jokeropia - 85.9
14. Road - 85.73
15. dragct - 85.69
16. Brakara - 85.65
17. scottnak - 85.37
18. boontje - 85.18
19. rostocker - 84.82
20. pitseleh - 84.58
21. user_nat - 84.52
22. botticus - 84.5
23. SuperBanjo - 84.49
24. lowlylowlycook - 84.47
25. JoshuaJSlone - 84.11
26. N.A - 83.81
27. donny2112 - 83.34
28. NeoUltima - 82.38
29. timetokill - 82.34
30. SonicX_Zero - 82.08
31. archnemesis - 82.01
32. Averon - 81.51
33. Orgen - 81.17
34. modulaire - 81.13
35. jj984jj - 80.54
36. Megadragon15 - 80.16
37. rayner - 79.86
38. andy_lhc - 79.75
39. Gamemaster_ca_2003 - 79.75
40. VegaShinra - 79.39
41. Scott32020 - 79.22
42. Ydahs - 79.16
43. Osuwari - 79.03
44. Sadist - 78.7
45. WaltJay - 78.5
46. Aad - 78.43
47. sciplore - 78.32
48. miladesn - 77.38
49. skedar897 - 77.11
50. crazy monkey - 75.25


botticus said:
Is there any way we might get a "NPD Predictions Index" thread or something of that sort? Something that one could subscribe to, where you could just drop in a new post linking to the new predictions thread. Subscriptions are pretty much the only way I can keep up with the forum nowadays.
That'd be good. Something like the MC one where old threads are kept track of. I've started relying on subscribing to all the threads I post in to keep track of stuff, too. :lol

Edit:
Here you go. It'll take the place of the "last month's results" link in future OPs. :)
 
Jun 10, 2004
1,274
15
1,420
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Hiro_Kunimi_80 said:
[WII] 26K


Edit of 11/11 before any data comes out

FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU..

i've just realized that i've wrote "[WII] 26K " :(
donny2112 said:
October 2010 NPD Prediction Results

Units


39. Hiro_Kunimi_80 - 305,600

Points

[co

Raaaaaaageeeeeee
 

botticus

Member
Jun 15, 2007
3,438
0
0
Thanks and thanks, donny! I do like my #22 ranking in average points better than barely hanging onto the top 50 cumulative.
 

andy_lhc

Member
Aug 14, 2007
435
0
950
I didn't realise we were still doing this due to the new format.

Oh well. I'll remember that next month. :D