PS5 sales is what I'm thinking.... but I guess the game matters in the shorter term.
Unfortunately the recent economic downturn, if it doesn't bounce back fast, along with a high priced console, is going to make software sales even more important. This goes for all manufacturers.
The reason the prices are important to the manufacturers is that the higher the price of the next gen consoles, the lower the adoption rate will be. The lower the adoption rate, the less they will make off of software sales (the biggest money maker as far as I know.) coming from those
specific consoles.
Next gen AAA games are going to cost a
lot to develop if current gen AAA games are anything to go by. Less adoption rate means making less money to cover that cost. Other costs are developing new technology etc to make the next games even better...
The way to mitigate this would be to not have software that was locked to a specific console. Which is why I think MS are smart for putting their games on as many of their consoles as possible right now, including PC, even though they
might not be utilizing 100% of the potential of their machine right off the bat. And less people miss out on newer games while they save up to have more bells and whistles if they want.
Not to mention how this complicates the split in marketing between next gen only and current gen games. Which are you going to prioritize? Current gen, where you get most of your software sales atm? Or next gen where, if your first party games are locked, you are trying to push adoption rates to make up for the crazy amounts of money you are spending developing it's software? The higher the bar to entry the harder the ladder is going to be. So then split the diff. Either way, it's more of a risk and a money sink. So especially right now, I think it would be wise to diversify instead of restrict.
In the near future I see people being more able and willing to spend $60 on a game that they can play on their current hardware rather than a couple hundred on a box on top of that. Like I said, this would at least give people time to save for more bells and whistles while at the same time Sony would still get software sales.