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[Woopah]

You're assuming that these consoles all broke immediately after the 3rd year or were all purchased at the very beginning of 2006. We know that's not true.

A million copies of Kinect sports and dance central do not explain the boost in hardware sales for Xbox relative to the PS2 which only had competition from the GameCube, OG Xbox, and Dreamcast.

That just doesn't add up. Both those games were 24th or worse on the Xbox 360 best selling chart. Games like Batman still sold better on PS3 than 360.

I'm saying that consoles breaking is not the reason 360 got a huge surge in sales from H2 2010 onwards. Kinect was.

Games like Halo Reach and Skyrim also helped, but we can tell Kinect was a factor by the very strong sales for the Kinect device and bundles. The device drew in a casual crowd that didn't buy any of the PS2/GameCube/Xbox generation.

Also just to clarify I'm talking specifically about why 360 got a late surge in sales in the US. It didn't have too bad sales before Kinect (around 4.5 million a year).

Edit: regarding software charts, it's harder for games that require an accessory to chart as high as games that can be played on any 360.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

I'm saying that consoles breaking is not the reason 360 got a huge surge in sales from H2 2010 onwards. Kinect was.

Games like Halo Reach and Skyrim also helped, but we can tell Kinect was a factor by the very strong sales for the Kinect device and bundles. The device drew in a casual crowd that didn't buy any of the PS2/GameCube/Xbox generation.

Also just to clarify I'm talking specifically about why 360 got a late surge in sales in the US. It didn't have too bad sales before Kinect (around 4.5 million a year).

Edit: regarding software charts, it's harder for games that require an accessory to chart as high as games that can be played on any 360.

If Kinect was pushing hardware sales, we would see some corresponding boost in software sales for kinect titles and it just does not exist.

Look at the numbers of PS2s sold and there is no way the 360 was that close with the level of competition from the PS3.

There's just nothing backing that theory.

 

[Woopah]

If Kinect was pushing hardware sales, we would see some corresponding boost in software sales for kinect titles and it just does not exist.

Look at the numbers of PS2s sold and there is no way the 360 was that close with the level of competition from the PS3.

There's just nothing backing that theory.

If Kinect was pushing hardware sales, we'd see a high amount of sales coming from Kinect bundles and its included software, which we do.

The highest US hardware sales in Xbox history came when lots of people were buying 360 Kinect bundles. That backs the theory.

NPD had stopped giving software numbers back then, but we see Dance Central and Kimect Sports (plus their sequels) charting well in addition to other Kinect enabled games like Kinect Star Wars, Just Dance, Zumba Fitness and The Michael Jackson Experience.

Plus Kinect had multimedia uses too.

 

[hemo memo]

It’s the US=World syndrome again.

 

[Alan Wake]

To be fair, Xbox 360 really took off with the Kinect, didn't it? We haven't reached five years into this gen yet. However you spin it, Xbox Series X/S is not doing well.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

If Kinect was pushing hardware sales, we'd see a high amount of sales coming from Kinect bundles and its included software, which we do.

The highest US hardware sales in Xbox history came when lots of people were buying 360 Kinect bundles. That backs the theory.

NPD had stopped giving software numbers back then, but we see Dance Central and Kimect Sports (plus their sequels) charting well in addition to other Kinect enabled games like Kinect Star Wars, Just Dance, Zumba Fitness and The Michael Jackson Experience.

Plus Kinect had multimedia uses too.

Not a single game suggests people were buying the the 360 for the Kinect and games that released after charted much better but not necessarily impressively.

No, no one bought the kinect for its multimedia uses.

Examples are like GTA5... if it truly had a significantly higher userbase in the US than the PS3, it should have sold more on 360 than PS3... yet it sold considerably less..

 

[Woopah]

Not a single game suggests people were buying the the 360 for the Kinect and games that released after charted much better but not necessarily impressively.

No, no one bought the kinect for its multimedia uses.

Examples are like GTA5... if it truly had a significantly higher userbase in the US than the PS3, it should have sold more on 360 than PS3... yet it sold considerably less..

The high sales for Kinect bundles show people were buying 360 for Kinect. Why otherwise would sales be so high?

In the US, NPD has GTA V selling more on 360 than PS3 in 2013, 2014 and 2015. The vast majority of multiplats sold more on 360 than PS3 in the US, because it had a much higher userbase.

What source are you using?

Edit: Here's the full report for December and full year 2013 - https://www.gamesindustry.biz/grand-theft-auto-v-best-selling-game-of-2013-npd

The chart at the bottom shows every multiplayer game selling more on 360 than PS3 (the SKUs are shown in order of sales).

 

[Mibu no ookami]

The high sales for Kinect bundles show people were buying 360 for Kinect. Why otherwise would sales be so high?

In the US, NPD has GTA V selling more on 360 than PS3 in 2013, 2014 and 2015. The vast majority of multiplats sold more on 360 than PS3 in the US, because it had a much higher userbase.

What source are you using?

Edit: Here's the full report for December and full year 2013 - https://www.gamesindustry.biz/grand-theft-auto-v-best-selling-game-of-2013-npd

The chart at the bottom shows every multiplayer game selling more on 360 than PS3 (the SKUs are shown in order of sales)

I was using market watch but it looks like they were citing vgchartz, so throw that out the window.

But my point still stands that there is no evidence that kinect drove sales, the software just isn't there. It's a fact.

 

[Fafalada]

But my point still stands that there is no evidence that kinect drove sales

You mean - other than the fact that Kinect launch year and Year+1 are the all time record annual-sales of entire history of Xbox platforms to date (and 2 of the 3 total times any XBox sold more than 10M in a given year, and all 3 of which were XBox 360).

Now sure - you can argue correlation != causation, but we also need to look for other plausible explanations to counter it then.

 

[Woopah]

I was using market watch but it looks like they were citing vgchartz, so throw that out the window.

But my point still stands that there is no evidence that kinect drove sales, the software just isn't there. It's a fact.

If Kinect wasn't driving hardware sales, then why were the sales of Kinect and Kinect bundles so high?

In December 2010 alone MS sold around 1 million 360 Kinect bundles in the US.

If Kinect wasn't a factor, the bundles would be much smaller proportion of sales (like PS Move).

 

[Deerock71]

The PS5 being +7% over PS4 means roughly 20.7m for PS5 and Switch being 1.1m behind PS2 means 45.24m, not too far off with estimations below but the numbers need adjusting slightly.

Estimations for 2024

Month	PS5	XBS	NSW
January	425,000	210,000	250,000
February	410,000	195,000	220,000
March	525,000	205,000	235,000
April	250,000	105,000	140,000
May	230,000	110,000	130,000
June	340,000	165,000	185,000
Total	2,180,000	990,000	1,160,000
Lifetime	20,860,000	14,540,000	45,340,000

1995 to 2022 is official NPD data, 2023 and 2024 are estimations from IB. * 2024 numbers are as of June.

Current Platforms

Year	PS5	PS5 Total	XBS	XBS Total	NSW	NSW Total
2024*	2,180,000	20,860,000	990,000	14,540,000	1,160,000	45,340,000
2023	6,780,000	18,680,000	3,850,000	13,550,000	4,770,000	44,180,000
2022	5,660,000	11,900,000	4,480,000	9,700,000	5,830,000	39,410,000
2021	4,280,000	6,240,000	3,730,000	5,220,000	7,610,000	33,580,000
2020	1,960,000	1,960,000	1,490,000	1,490,000	8,980,000	25,970,000
2019	-		-		6,480,000	16,990,000
2018	-		-		5,640,000	10,510,000
2017	-		-		4,870,000	4,870,000

Legacy Platforms

Year	PS4 - 34,760,000	XBO - 29,000,000	Wii U - 5,510,000	3DS - 23,390,000	PSV - 2,440,000
2022	50,000	-	-	-	-
2021	600,000	10,000	-	-	-
2020	2,000,000	1,460,000	-	200,000	-
2019	3,830,000	3,040,000	-	560,000	-
2018	5,290,000	4,360,000	-	1,470,000	-
2017	5,420,000	4,280,000	-	2,180,000	-
2016	5,100,000	4,730,000	510,000	2,490,000	60,000
2015	5,720,000	4,930,000	1,340,0000	2,400,000	280,000
2014	4,680,000	4,370,000	1,560,000	2,570,000	320,000
2013	2,000,000	1,820,000	1,210,000	3,810,000	500,000
2012	-	-	890,000	3,630,000	1,280,000
2011	-	-	-	4,080,000	-

Year	PS3 - 26,870,000	X360 - 43,220,000	Wii - 41,780,000	DS - 53,530,000	PSP - 19,990,000
2017	10,000	20,000	-	-	-
2016	190,000	250,000	-	-	-
2015	360,000	570,000	40,000	-	-
2014	750,000	1,330,000	240,000	10,000	20,000
2013	2,180,000	3,070,000	810,000	520,000	130,000
2012	3,410,000	5,300,000	1,960,000	1,980,000	240,000
2011	4,520,000	7,280,000	4,530,000	3,840,000	1,120,000
2010	4,330,000	6,760,000	7,070,000	8,580,000	1,660,000
2009	4,330,000	4,770,000	9,590,000	11,190,000	2,490,000
2008	3,540,000	4,740,000	10,170,000	9,950,000	3,820,000
2007	2,560,000	4,620,000	6,290,000	8,430,000	3,830,000
2006	690,000	3,900,000	1,080,000	5,320,000	3,050,000
2005	-	610,000	-	2,580,000	3,630,000
2004	-	-	-	1,230,000	-

Year	PS2 - 46,340,000	Xbox - 14,500,000	GCN - 11,810,000	DC - 4,010,000	GBA - 35,700,000
2012	50,000	-	-	-	-
2011	290,000	-	-	-	-
2010	750,000	-	-	-	-
2009	1,800,000	-	-	-	-
2008	2,500,000	-	-	-	420,000
2007	3,940,000	-	10,000	-	1,120,000
2006	4,840,000	400,000	1,120,000	-	3,240,000
2005	5,510,000	2,420,000	1,560,000	-	4,370,000
2004	4,680,000	4,010,000	2,290,0000	-	7,080,000
2003	6,310,000	3,100,000	3,270,000	-	7,780,000
2002	8,390,000	3,170,000	2,260,000	1,250,000	6,940,000
2001	6,180,000	1,400,000	1,210,000	1,280,000	4,750,000
2000	1,100,000	-	-	1,480,000	-
1999	-	-	-	-	-

Year	PS1 - 30,180,000	N64 - 17,990,000	Saturn - 1,360,000	GBC - 17,270,000
2005	40,000	-	-	-
2004	710,000	-	-	-
2003	1,150,000	10,000	-	-
2002	2,200,000	150,000	-	60,000
2001	2,240,000	1,160,000	-	2,950,000
2000	3,230,000	2,530,000	-	6,820,000
1999	5,850,000	3,540,000	-	6,450,000
1998	7,110,000	4,140,000	50,000	990,000
1997	5,050,000	4,490,000	240,000	-
1996	1,990,000	1,970,000	780,000	-
1995	600,000	-	290,000	-

Reading from the people extrapolating these numbers, I just want to express my gratitude at your ability to math.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

If Kinect wasn't driving hardware sales, then why were the sales of Kinect and Kinect bundles so high?

Just because someone buys a hardware bundle, doesn't mean the elements of the bundle are what drove the sales.

So many factors involved, particularly around availability.

But the most important evidence of this and what you can't get around, is that if it was truly a driving force, we absolutely would have seen titles with higher sales than we did. I just don't know how you can't see this point.

If you combine the sales of all the top charted non bundled kinect software, it still wouldn't explain the 360 selling as many units as it did in the US compared to the PS2, given the competition of the PS3, and we can safely assume that that kinect software has tremendous overlap.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

You mean - other than the fact that Kinect launch year and Year+1 are the all time record annual-sales of entire history of Xbox platforms to date (and 2 of the 3 total times any XBox sold more than 10M in a given year, and all 3 of which were XBox 360).

Now sure - you can argue correlation != causation, but we also need to look for other plausible explanations to counter it then.

The plausible explanation is that many people in the United States were forced to buy replacement 360s towards the end of the generation, which drove up sales, particularly in the US.

Rather than the Xbox picking up steam late in its life based on a hardware bundle that sold few software copies...

 

[LakeOf9]

Not gonna tag y’all, but you know who you are lol. Time to shut the fuck up.

 

[Woopah]

Just because someone buys a hardware bundle, doesn't mean the elements of the bundle are what drove the sales.

So many factors involved, particularly around availability.

But the most important evidence of this and what you can't get around, is that if it was truly a driving force, we absolutely would have seen titles with higher sales than we did. I just don't know how you can't see this point.

If you combine the sales of all the top charted non bundled kinect software, it still wouldn't explain the 360 selling as many units as it did in the US compared to the PS2, given the competition of the PS3, and we can safely assume that that kinect software has tremendous overlap.

If you are choosing to pay $100 more for a bundle with Kinect and Kinect Adventures, it means you care about Kinect and/or that game.

Globally there were availability issues with the Kinect because it was so much more popular than what MS predicted. They thought it would sell 3 million in the holidays and it sold 8 million.

What are the other many factors involved?

But the most important evidence of this and what you can't get around, is that if it was truly a driving force, we absolutely would have seen titles with higher sales than we did. I just don't know how you can't see this point.

What kind of US software numbers were you expecting to see for Kinect games? I don't remember any other accessory software doing as well as Kinect ganes.

If you combine the sales of all the top charted non bundled kinect software, it still wouldn't explain the 360 selling as many units as it did in the US compared to the PS2, given the competition of the PS3, and we can safely assume that that kinect software has tremendous overlap.

Why it sold close to the PS2 wasn't just Kinect. It was also due to the success of Xbox Live, the first party exclusives, RROD, the cheaper price and the 360 becoming the preferred place to play multiplat titles. Kinect just helped give it a late life boost.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

If you are choosing to pay $100 more for a bundle with Kinect and Kinect Adventures, it means you care about Kinect and/or that game.

Globally there were availability issues with the Kinect because it was so much more popular than what MS predicted. They thought it would sell 3 million in the holidays and it sold 8 million.

What are the other many factors involved?


What kind of US software numbers were you expecting to see for Kinect games? I don't remember any other accessory software doing as well as Kinect ganes.



Why it sold close to the PS2 wasn't just Kinect. It was also due to the success of Xbox Live, the first party exclusives, RROD, the cheaper price and the 360 becoming the preferred place to play multiplat titles. Kinect just helped give it a late life boost.

You're still missing the big picture.

Other than RROD, it doesn't explain the massive increase in TAM for the generation that immediately drops off the following generation and a complete lack of growth.

The PS2 was entirely dominant against the Dreamcast, Gamecube, and Xbox. For the 360 to near match it with the PS3 being much more competition than those consoles combined (least of all to mention the Wii), suggests there is ample overlap in sales, and with RROD, that's enough to explain that.

The 360 is the biggest outlier in sales we've ever seen in gaming and RROD is really the only explanation for it.

You say that it's only a peripheral, but if enough people were buying it to put it so close to the PS2, it would have had requisite software sales to go along with that.

The PS2 is also an outlier in sales being it was sold as a DVD player cheaper than many other DVD players.

 

[Woopah]

You're still missing the big picture.

Other than RROD, it doesn't explain the massive increase in TAM for the generation that immediately drops off the following generation and a complete lack of growth.

The PS2 was entirely dominant against the Dreamcast, Gamecube, and Xbox. For the 360 to near match it with the PS3 being much more competition than those consoles combined (least of all to mention the Wii), suggests there is ample overlap in sales, and with RROD, that's enough to explain that.

The 360 is the biggest outlier in sales we've ever seen in gaming and RROD is really the only explanation for it.

You say that it's only a peripheral, but if enough people were buying it to put it so close to the PS2, it would have had requisite software sales to go along with that.

The PS2 is also an outlier in sales being it was sold as a DVD player cheaper than many other DVD players.

The PS2 generation saw growth over the PS1 generation due to both the multimedia capabilities and the growing popularity of games. Then there was further growth into the 360 generation, with core online gaming really taking off and the Wii/Kinect bringing in new players.

In the next generation, the casual audience from Wii/Kinect largely didn't come back, but the core XB/PS remained intact (the lack of RROD / YLOD type failures with Xbox One and PS4 did lessen repeat sales).

You say that it's only a peripheral, but if enough people were buying it to put it so close to the PS2, it would have had requisite software sales to go along with that.

That would only make sense if Kinect itself got close to the PS2. But instead Kinect helped the 360 get close to the PS2, and the 360 did have strong software sales.

To clarify, I'm not saying 42 million people in the US bought Kinect. I'm saying around 8-10 million did, and that it was an important factor in convincing people to buy a 360 late in its life.

What were the many factors you mentioned that would lead to someone buying a Kinect bundle over a normal 360?

P.S. I appreciate your commitment to the discussion

 

[Hudo]

Not gonna tag y’all, but you know who you are lol. Time to shut the fuck up.

He's not wrong.

 

[LakeOf9]

He's not wrong.

He isn't, but you have people trying their best to do the "Switch doesn't count" thing in this very thread, so you know. Fanboys are going to be fanboys even in the face of logic and data.

 

[Hudo]

He isn't, but you have people trying their best to do the "Switch doesn't count" thing in this very thread, so you know. Fanboys are going to be fanboys even in the face of logic and data.

I feel that has been the case with Nintendo's stuff even since before the Switch; ever since they went "Blue Ocean" with the Wii. It's just retards being retards.

I mean, I could also construct an argument in which I invalidate all sold PS2 Slims since you can't play FF11 on a PS2 Slim due to the lack of HDD connectivity, so the Slim is just a gimmick console, not a real PS2, etc. And this board would call me retarded for that, which is fair.

Honestly, I don't get why it is so important who is outselling who, unless you are a shareholder.