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Opinion Is Coronavirus creating a future of ungodly high taxes? Are future generations completely screwed?

JordanN

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Sorry for the triple post, but at least now we have some hard numbers.

Posthaste: Coronavirus lockdown costing the Canadian economy around 0.7% of GDP every week


Safety first. Canada needs to flatten that so-called curve so that we can return to our normal lives along with our loved ones.

But the economic costs of the lockdown is piling up. Bank of Montreal economist Doug Porter says the economy is losing just above half a per cent of annual GDP each week.

“Each week accounts for just under 2 per cent of the year, and somewhere between 23 per cent and 35 per cent of the economy is currently locked down (depending on the region),” the economist wrote in a note. “So, every week of shutdown thus costs the economy between 0.5 per cent and 0.7 per cent of annual GDP.”

BMO now forecasts Canada’s GDP growth to contract by 4.5 per cent this year, revised from its prior call of 3.0 per cent decline.
 
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JordanN

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Canada's GDP SHRANK BY 9% IN JUST ONE MONTH


The Canadian economy plunged by 9 per cent in March as COVID-19 started to upend business operations, with even uglier results expected for April.

In an estimate, Statistics Canada on Wednesday said the decline in gross domestic product for March would be the largest one-month contraction in records dating back to 1961. For the entire first quarter, GDP would decline by 2.6 per cent.

Under normal circumstances, Statscan would release its March GDP figures in May. However, given the economic devastation wrought by the novel coronavirus, Canada’s national statistical agency moved to release a timelier estimate of activity. Statscan stressed the estimates will change once more data are used in the full report released in May.
Can we please make China pay for all the damages now? An entire year of lockdowns is going to destroy us.

And keep in mind, we're not just losing money from businesses closing, but we also have to spend more money on healthcare as more people get sick as well.
 
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HarryKS

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The Conservatives are gonna have to find a much better successor to Scheer than Poilievre.

He looks and behaves and has the mannerisms and voice of an oversized pencil-necked nerd.
 

The Pleasure

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Canada's GDP SHRANK BY 9% IN JUST ONE MONTH




Can we please make China pay for all the damages now? An entire year of lockdowns is going to destroy us.

And keep in mind, we're not just losing money from businesses closing, but we also have to spend more money on healthcare as more people get sick as well.
Forcing them to pay monetarily? Never gonna work. Though pulling out manufacturing and squeezing them while doing a Canadia niceiry world wide? That can work. If India is the next destination.
 

JordanN

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Forcing them to pay monetarily? Never gonna work. Though pulling out manufacturing and squeezing them while doing a Canadia niceiry world wide? That can work. If India is the next destination.
Nope, it can be done.

Implement a 99% tax on anyone coming and going to China. Don't let anymore Western money slip out unnoticed. Also target all foreign buyers.
If they own Western property, all assets will be seized. It's ours now, they can't take from us anymore.

And I don't want anymore third world manufacturing. Even though India is [barely] a step above China, I don't want to risk the same events that brought us here in the first place repeating. With advances that are coming with automation, it makes less sense to rely on foreign slave labor when a robot could do the same work 100x faster and more efficient.

Enough of globalism. This shit is only poison to Western nations. Lets go back to focusing on ourselves, not the rest of the world.
 
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JordanN

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The news keeps on coming.





MONTREAL ― Canada’s stellar credit rating could be at risk as the country racks up new government debt faster than any other developed country, economists have warned.


According to projections in the latest fiscal monitor from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the increase in Canada’s deficit will be equal to 12 per cent of the country’s economic output, when including the COVID-19 stimulus measures Canada’s federal and provincial governments announced as of the first week of April.
And we also got our first chart.

 

JordanN

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Move over Vancouver, Toronto is also going in the red.




CBC said:
Toronto city hall stands to lose $1.5 billion during the COVID-19 pandemic, mayor John Tory said on Friday, and he's calling for financial help from Queen's Park and the federal government.

The figure is based on a scenario featuring a three-month lockdown followed by a six-month recovery period where some level of restrictions would still be in place, Tory said.

He called the $1.5 billion estimate "the best case scenario," and said the city is projecting losses of up to $2.73 billion if the crisis leads to a nine-month lockdown and 12-month recovery period.

The city has seen revenues plummet in a variety of areas, including licensing, tax payments and TTC fares. On transit alone, Toronto is losing around $20 million weekly, according to city estimates.
 
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JordanN

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So Trudeau just announced he's offering financial support for Students.



To be honest, I'm a bit conflicted. It obviously sucks for students whose pandemic interfered with their studies. But unless they're actually working, what exactly is giving them money suppose to achieve?

I at least like CERB because it's more like a loan and anyone who takes it out is expected to pay it back next year. But if it gets to a point where now we just give away money to anyone, then we're just unnecessarily piling on more debt.

Ironically, for all those people bitching about how "no one wants to pick fruit for a living" I think it should become mandatory for students to go work on a farm until things return to normal.
 
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The Pleasure

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Funny. I'm considered disabled by all metrics when it comes to physicality, yet I'm not disabled enough for ssdi or ssi. I look forward to seeing more youth do manual labor. It's good for the muscles and health. But do keep in mind this is paid by bushel not per hour. So in a sense it is skilled labor.
 
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JordanN

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Two-thirds of Toronto small businesses wont survive another three months.


A survey of hundreds of small businesses across the city has found that nearly two-thirds of them may have to close down for good within three months as they struggle to keep up with rent and other bills during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The survey, which was developed by the Broadview-Danforth Business Improvement Area (BIA), involved 561 small businesses. and 137 landlords.

It found that 17 per cent of businesses believe that they can only last for another month given their “current/expected revenue” while 21 per cent said that they could make it another two months and 23 per cent said that they could last for three months. Only about nine per cent of businesses said that they would survive regardless of how long orders forcing their closure remained in effect.


The survey also found that many businesses have already fallen behind on rent payments and are likely to continue on that track.

Only half of the businesses surveyed said that they were able to pay their full rent in April with nearly one-third of them (29 per cent) saying they couldn’t pay any rent at all and a further 11 per cent saying that they could only pay about half of their rent. The remaining respondents said that they could either pay a quarter of their rent (6 per cent) or three-quarters (4 per cent)

With May rent due next week, the businesses were also asked about how much they anticipated being able to pay their landlords and the results are alarming. Nearly four of ten businesses (38 per cent) said that they wouldn’t be able to pay any rent while 19 per cent said that they would only be able to pay about half of their rent and 10 per cent said that they could probably only pay a quarter of their rent. The percentage of businesses that felt they could pay their entire rent bill, meanwhile, was 28 per cent.

It's getting brutal, and we haven't even made it through the first wave yet....
 

Appleprosy

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Everyone I know in Canada already said they couldn't hardly pay the taxes BEFORE the pandemic. I truly feel for them, though I'm not bashing Canada. It just seems so much gets placed upon the tax payer, more so than in the United States.
 
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Arimer

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This is my worry in the US. once this is done they're going to be wanting to get all this money back. So taxes go up. And when people get back to work they might as well kiss wage increases goodbye because someone has to make up this 600 dollar a week + of unemployment. The companies will have to make that up so there goes any raises for anyone. Not to mention budget underruns on most levels of government due to the shutdown. It's going to be rough.
 

HarryKS

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So Trudeau just announced he's offering financial support for Students.



To be honest, I'm a bit conflicted. It obviously sucks for students whose pandemic interfered with their studies. But unless they're actually working, what exactly is giving them money suppose to achieve?

I at least like CERB because it's more like a loan and anyone who takes it out is expected to pay it back next year. But if it gets to a point where now we just give away money to anyone, then we're just unnecessarily piling on more debt.

Ironically, for all those people bitching about how "no one wants to pick fruit for a living" I think it should become mandatory for students to go work on a farm until things return to normal.
You mean CEBA. How would you pay CERB back?
 

HarryKS

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No, it's CERB.

And they add it your ordinary income.

So say you make $27,000 this year but you took out $2000, then your income being taxed is $29,000.
Yeah, but you don't really pay it back. It's just taxable income. As with all other benefits. It's gonna 8000 dollars of taxable benefits, not like a low interest payment you pay back.
 
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If you raise taxes during the pandemic or raise them to an ungodly level in the future, you will destroy your country and make your economy grow less than it otherwise would.

Young people will move out. Millions will commit suicide. Canada won't be the place to be anymore.
 
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infinitys_7th

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Yeah, but you don't really pay it back. It's just taxable income. As with all other benefits. It's gonna 8000 dollars of taxable benefits, not like a low interest payment you pay back.
Shit like this is why I hate government. Why would you send out money then ask people to send part of it back? It takes a retard to make a system like that.
 

JordanN

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Shit like this is why I hate government. Why would you send out money then ask people to send part of it back? It takes a retard to make a system like that.
He's not sending the money out.

It's for people who were directly impacted by Covid-19. Basically, if you are actually unable to do your job (because you are sick or have been sent to quarantine) then you apply and are given $2000 to act as your temporary income.

But once you do return back to work, you can't claim anymore.
 
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infinitys_7th

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He's not sending the money out.

It's for people who were directly impacted by Covid-19. Basically, if you are actually unable to do your job (because you are sick or have been sent to quarantine) then you're given $2000 to act as your temporary income.

But once you do return back to work, you can't claim anymore.
But that is still sending money to people then asking for part of it back. Why not just exempt it?
 

infinitys_7th

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5 million+ Canadians have already applied for it. The maximum you can claim is $8000.

That's $40 Billion dollars that has to come from somewhere.
I'm not following. If the government sends you $100 and wants $20 back next year for taxes, they are still out $80. The $20 you sent back does not help fund the $80.

My point is "Why not just send $80 tax exempt in the first place, or just tax-exempt the whole thing?"
 
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JordanN

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Update: Here are some indetail numbers about unemployment and CERB. It's actually close 7 million Canadians applied.









I'm not following. If the government sends you $100 and wants $20 back next year for taxes, they are still out $80. The $20 you sent back does not help fund the $80.

My point is "Why not just send $80 tax exempt in the first place, or just tax-exempt the whole thing?"
They already do this based on income.

If your entire salary was less than $12,000 then you don't really pay anything.

But if you made more than $20,000 then they are going to see more than just $20 back.
 
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JordanN

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Good god, it keeps getting worse.

Rosenberg says brace for 60-cent loonie, Canada downgrades

Canada’s currency will depreciate sharply and its credit rating will suffer as the federal government is forced to “backstop everyone,” rolling out more assistance for provinces, companies and households, according to economist David Rosenberg.

The country is “likely facing a series of downgrades” to its AAA rating, given that the total debt in the economy is already an unprecedented 350 per cent of GDP, he said. In the Group of Seven, only Canada and Germany have the highest rating.

Rosenberg, who started Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc. in January after more than a decade as chief economist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc., said Canada may be lucky to escape with a cut to AA. He also said his call for the loonie to drop to 60 cents US may end up being conservative. The Canadian dollar was just below 71 cents US late Friday afternoon.

The rampant growth in money supply required for the Bank of Canada to fund federal spending by purchasing new bonds will cause international investors to lose confidence in the relative value of the country’s currency, Rosenberg said.

“It will be interesting to see how a central bank that does not govern over the world’s reserve currency and a country with a massive balance-of-payments deficit will be able to have all of this largesse find its way onto the BoC balance sheet” without jeopardizing global investor confidence, he said.


Rosenberg, who presciently warned of a U.S. housing bubble in 2005 when he was chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch, said “the Great Canadian Debt Surge has come home to roost, and that home is going to be in the nation’s capital.”
Soon, we're going to be Mexico tier at this point. WTF.
 
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The Pleasure

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Good god, it keeps getting worse.

Rosenberg says brace for 60-cent loonie, Canada downgrades



Soon, we're going to be Mexico tier at this point. WTF.
Be fair. Mexico is more fun than Canada. And with their lithium deposots, Mexico is gonna be a higher tier than Canada. Think of this as punishment for Justin beaver, Ann Murray and poutine.
 
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Atrus

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Canada is screwed but the US is a far different beast entirely. The US dollar is a global reserve currency that people will run to even as various parts of the planet reduce themselves to fighting in Thunderdomes. The US is also invested into every future economy industry that one can imagine, including Green Tech, despite all the annoying people that says that the US is doing nothing.

In Canada however, Real Estate is our primary industry and of course we all know that Real Estate always goes up and never collapses. Our next biggest industry is mining alongside oil and gas, which accounts for near 50% of our exports by value. This of course doesn't stop our fellow Canadians from calling for its complete abandonment because we're hurting the planet and that we should magically create Green Jobs because things like finances and competitive advantage are meaningless considerations.

In third, Canada has a vast but shrinking manufacturing sector based on local plants for foreign manufacturing companies. We produce a shrinking list of vehicles for foreign companies like GM, Ford, FCA, Toyota and Honda. With high electricity prices and the added bonus of a carbon tax making our products more expensive to produce than other OECD countries much less the third world countries our jobs get exported to, its a wonder why we build anything in Canada to begin with.

Of course the answer to Canadian woes will be a big increase in taxes but when has that solved any of our problems? Eastern Canada is all about telling Alberta that the solution to its deficits are to increase its taxes yet demonstrating that no matter how much they increase their taxes, virtually all of them are in economic trouble. Tax increases just kick our fundamental problems down the road.

Canada will see a raising of the retirement age, the elimination of the capital gains exemption, and a host of other taxes and cuts that will leave Canadians poorer and less capable than ever before. All while raising our carbon tax because its reasonable to charge people more for the heat they use in a country that experiences -30 degree weather with no affordable alternative. Our economy was headed to an economic reckoning under Trudeau without the help of Covid-19, this just accelerates the inevitable.

TLDR; Canada's economy is fucked but this doesn't translate well into how the US does.
 
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Have you thought ....what if next year there's a new even deadlier virus coming. How many countries can afford to keep people locked up for long stretches?
 

Rbk_3

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Good god, it keeps getting worse.

Rosenberg says brace for 60-cent loonie, Canada downgrades



Soon, we're going to be Mexico tier at this point. WTF.
The exchange rate was under 62 cents when I started highschool in 2002. Life didn't feel like Mexico tier.
 

JordanN

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The exchange rate was under 62 cents when I started highschool in 2002. Life didn't feel like Mexico tier.
Keep in mind how much more expensive everything is relative to salary.

Average apartment today is $2000/month.

People who I've talked to who lived around 2000 ~ 2006 said they use to rent for $500/month.
 
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Rbk_3

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Keep in mind how much more expensive everything is relative to salary.

Average apartment today is $2000/month.

People who I've talked to who lived around 2000 ~ 2006 said they use to rent for $500/month.
Eh, could be rough for some, especially in the GTA but my mortgage is less than $1000 a month so I should be alright. Perhaps we will get a bit of a correction in the housing market.
Sucks for PC parts, gaming and electronics though, even at current prices I really miss par.
 
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JordanN

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Some more stats coming out.

Canadian economy likely in deepest recession on record, will only recover modestly over coming years: poll

globeandmail said:
The Canadian economy is likely in its deepest recession on record and will only recover modestly over the coming year as it takes a direct hit from the coronavirus outbreak and a collapse in oil prices, a Reuters poll of economists showed.

After the economy contracted sharply last month and lost a record 1.01 million jobs, economists have slashed back their economic forecasts because of lockdown measures and reeling oil prices, which hit a record low last week as global economic activity came to a halt.

In the April 23-28 Reuters poll of 25 economists, Canada’s economy was predicted to have contracted at an annualized rate of 9.8 per cent last quarter and to shrink 37.5 per cent this quarter.

In a January poll, they predicted 1.6-per-cent and 1.7-per-cent growth, respectively, showing just how abruptly the economy has turned. If the latest forecasts are realized, it would mark the deepest recession in at least six decades.

“Canada is in the midst of an historic economic contraction. The economy has largely shut down, paralyzed by measures to contain the coronavirus pandemic, free-falling financial markets, plunging oil prices and plummeting confidence,” said Tony Stillo, director of Canada economics at Oxford Economics.


The sombre outlook was despite the Bank of Canada’s buying up to $10-billion of corporate bonds and $50-billion of provincial bonds as part of its newly launched quantitative easing program – alongside hundreds of billions of dollars in government spending to support business and households.

Although the economy was predicted to bounce back and expand by a median 19 per cent and 11 per cent in the third and fourth quarter respectively, all but one of nine economists responding to an additional question said the risk to their second-half forecasts was skewed to the downside.

Despite that rebound, the economy was expected to contract 5.7 per cent this year, the first annual contraction since the 2008-09 recession and easily the deepest since records began being kept in 1961.

The median worst-case scenario, based on a lower sample, predicted a contraction of 50 per cent this quarter and 10 per cent this year.
 
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JordanN

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In the OP, it was predicted the Canadian deficit was $182 Billion.

3 weeks later, it is now at $252 Billion.

Federal deficit could top $252 billion, says budget officer


Parliament's budget watchdog says it's likely the federal deficit for the year will hit $252.1 billion as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic — and could go even higher if emergency measures remain in place longer than planned.

The figure is an estimate based on the almost $146 billion in spending measures the government has announced to help cushion the economic blow from the pandemic, estimated declines in the country's gross domestic product and the price of oil remaining well below previous expectations.

Parliamentary budget officer Yves Giroux's report assumes real GDP will contract by 12 per cent this year and help push the federal debt-to-GDP ratio to 48.4 per cent.

"To date, budgetary measures announced by the government are intended to be temporary. Once the budgetary measures expire and the economy recovers, the federal debt-to-GDP ratio should stabilize," Giroux says in a statement.

"But if some of the measures are extended or made permanent, the federal debt ratio will keep rising."

He also warns that extra spending may be required if the situation persists for longer than expected, or the economy is slow to recover when restrictions are lifted.

His report says the estimates are one possible scenario if current public health measures remain in place or are slowly — but not entirely — lifted over the rest of the calendar year.

The Liberals have said that they would spend what's needed in order to bridge businesses and workers through the crisis. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau wouldn't speculate Thursday on how the government would handle the massive deficit once the economy rebounds.

In the same article, it also mentions that CERB (Canada's program of giving away $2000 a month) actually costs $35.5 Billion. That is while it only covers 7 ~ 8.5 million Canadians.
 
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JordanN

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Welp, it finally begins.



The coronavirus pandemic has thrown a wrench into 2020 budget plans in every city and town in Canada, and Brampton is no exception.

According to a recent staff report to council on the impact of the pandemic on the city’s finances, should COVID-19 measures and restrictions remain in place until July the city is facing a deficit of $44.7 million. However, the report added that number is only an estimate and exact projections are difficult given the fluid nature of the situation.

“As the situation is dynamic and the duration and magnitude of the impact on the economy continues to develop, the financial impact to the City cannot be fully quantified with high certainty at this time,” read the report, adding the loss of transit and user fee revenues are the biggest drain, with the city’s COVID-19 property tax deferment program also playing a role.



“We lose money on transit every single day because we’re not collecting fares right now and we’re doing that to protect our transit operators,” Mayor Patrick Brown told reporters during an April 29 phone-in press conference.

Foregoing transit fares until June 30 will cost the city $22 million in revenue alone, according to the staff report.

Brown added, based on current estimates, the impact could lead to a four to seven per cent hike in taxes during a, while also adding he will do what he can to keep any increases to a minimum.

“If you look the cities presenting how this has damaged their budget, the range tends to be from four and 15 per cent. Where Mississauga’s assessment is that they’re more in the 15 per cent range, Brampton’s assessment has been on the lower end of the scale somewhere between four and seven per cent.”

“My message to the public is I’m going to do everything possible so that we don’t have a tax increase. I know this year has been tough enough. I know the challenges on every home have been difficult and I certainly would not be looking for or supporting a tax increase,” added the mayor.
Now you know why there is no such thing as "free".

They stopped collecting Bus fares in my city but it's obvious it just meant the money now has to come from somewhere else.
 
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JordanN

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There's no coming back from this now.

'Not unthinkable' that Canada's debt could hit $1 trillion this fiscal year, PBO says


OTTAWA -- Parliamentary Budget Officer Yves Giroux says it's "not unthinkable" that the federal debt could reach $1 trillion during this fiscal year as the economic response to the COVID-19 pandemic continues.

Giroux made the comment during Tuesday's finance committee meeting, when Conservative MP Pierre Poilievre asked whether it was "possible or realistic" that the federal debt could reach $1 trillion dollars during this fiscal year.

"Possible, yes. Realistic? Yes. Certainly not unthinkable," replied Giroux.

The comment comes two weeks after Giroux also predicted that the federal deficit for the year could reach over $252 billion as a result of the emergency economic programs the government has put in place to help Canadians cope with job and income losses amid the outbreak, if existing business shutdowns are slowly eased from the summer through December and oil prices remain low.

On Tuesday, he said this figure was "optimistic."

"The figure of $252 billion is very likely to be the very optimistic scenario, as opposed to the number for the deficit for the current fiscal year," Giroux explained.

He said the measures the government has been announcing are intended to be temporary, and that once programs such as the Canada Emergency Response Benefit and the wage subsidy expire and the economy recovers, Canada's debt-to-GDP ratio should "stabilize."

"However, if some of the measures are extended or are made permanent, the federal debt ratio could keep rising," Giroux warned.

When pressed on Canada’s plan for its economic recovery, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has not given reporters any indication of what steps will be taken to heal the bruised economy and shrink the rising deficit.
 
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JordanN

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It begins. Covid-19 is now being treated as a tacked on service/extra cost.




TORONTO -- As small businesses begin the arduous task of reopening amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, some have opted to tack on a COVID-19 surcharge to their receipts in an effort to recoup funds spent on new sanitation and physical distancing measures.

The so-called "COVID fee" is designed to help cover the cost of personal protective equipment (PPE) for employees, increased sanitation measures, or income lost from reducing the number of customers a business is allowed to serve based on physical distancing measures.

Hair salons and restaurants are among the first to embrace the surcharge in provinces where they have been allowed to reopen, such as British Columbia, but experts warn it’s a delicate balance to strike at a time when consumers are wary about spending.

“In a situation where many people are scared to go back to the hairdresser, or scared to go out to eat, charging an extra dollar or some type of surcharge just adds to that. It’s extra incentive to stay home,” Darren Dahl, professor at the University of British Columbia's Sauder School of Business, told CTVNews.ca.

“This is not a ‘business as usual’ situation for consumers either. A lot of consumers will have to be lured back to some of these services.”

Experts agree that consumers will need to see proof that there has been an added cost to a business’ operation because of the pandemic—be it Plexiglas shields, employees wearing PPE, or new operating measures.

But even with these obvious changes, news of the COVID-19 fee has consumers divided.

Photographic evidence of a restaurant charging a “COVID fee” in the U.S. ignited fury from some Twitter users who suggested ordering from local restaurants is support enough. But hundreds of others reacting to the same photo said the $2 fee was a small price to pay to support small businesses.

The decision to tack on the added surcharge has divided business owners too, as they navigate lost income and the added financial challenges of operating during a global pandemic.

“You can’t recuperate what you’ve lost,” Mandy McFadden, owner of Newmarket, Ont.-based Salon Decorum, told CTVNews.ca Thursday.

“There’s no charge you can give at this point to make up for lost time. But you can’t go back to doing business without raising prices.”

McFadden says the cost of business has increased significantly for hair salons whose supplies have skyrocketed in price. A box of gloves used for colour services used to cost the salon $8.95 plus tax per unit. McFadden’s distributors are now charging up to $20 per box.

She also expects the salon’s utilities to increase to accommodate for increased sanitation rules. Plus, in order to comply with physical distancing standards, her team will only be able to see half of the clients they normally would in a day.

“My costs have automatically gone up anywhere between $5 and $10 per client just to operate,” she explained. “But I’ll only be allowed to service 50 per cent of the people that I used to [once we open].”

McFadden said she and other salon owners she has spoken with will undoubtedly be forced to increase their prices in order to acclimatize to the new cost of business. But she is against the idea of instituting a COVID-19 surcharge, saying that the constant reminder of COVID-19 stamped on a receipt is no way to move forward.
 
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The Pleasure

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It begins. Covid-19 is now being treated as a tacked on service/extra cost.


This is what i call the McChicken tax. When they werr 99 cents each they were slammin. At 1.19 they were something to think about. Let that sink in. 20 cents made me think. At 1.50 or 2 for 3 they became a hard pass.
 

JordanN

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Brampton, Ontario
The mayor of Toronto just described the worst case scenario budget cuts.

Libraries being closed, public transit slashed in half, the police and fire department having to eliminate staff.

For a big city, I'm particularly concerned with losing the Police. Watch what will happen to crime when there is no one to stop them.


"Without immediate support, our city, like many other cities across Canada… is facing unprecedented cuts that will hurt this city and every person and every business that the federal and provincial governments have been trying to help over the last weeks since this pandemic began," Tory said urgently.

"I find the cuts completely unacceptable, unacceptable even to contemplate, but it's the reality of where we sit today."

Tory said his staff calculated exactly what would need to happen in order for the city to avoid a deficit if Ford and Trudeau both fail to provide financial aid to the city, and the results are gutting.

First, Tory said a $575 million reduction to TTC service would be required, which would result in a 50 per cent shut down of the entire transit system.

Under this scenario, service on subway Lines 1 and 2 would be cut in half, Lines 3 and 4 would be shut down entirely, all streetcar service levels would be cut in half, major bus service levels would be cut in half, and there would also be a $73.6 million reduction in wheel trans service.

This type of reduction is basically unimaginable for a transit system that is already grappling with how to provide sufficient, safe service in the age of social distancing.

And that's only scratching the surface.

Tory also said more than $23 million would be cut from Toronto Fire, Toronto Police Services would see a $31.3 million budget cut that would eliminate 500 frontline officers, and almost $40 million in childcare subsides would have to be eliminated (that's a reduction of almost 40,625 chilcare subsidies to families in Toronto).

The city would also have to cut the shelter services budget by $101.5 million, resulting in a 50 per cent reduction in shelter spaces.

Recreational programs would also see a 50 per cent reduction of $40.8 million, which would result in the closure of 61 community centres and/or the loss of 600,000 hours of recreational programming.

Toronto's long-term care homes would also lose approximately 1,320 spaces as a result of a $12 million reduction.

Library branches would also have to close, subsidies for community housing would be reduced, new investments in youth hubs and youth spaces to address the roots of gun violence would be cancelled, and capital projects would see a reduction of $451 million.

Tory said the city would also have to consider putting as many as 19,184 employees out of work, and that's in addition to the residents who are already unemployed as a result of the pandemic.

"We would be left with a city that can't work, and it would be unable to keep helping the people who rely on that help the most," he said. "I have been working nonstop to bring this to the attention of the other governments and to secure their funding commitments and that work will continue."
 
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