It will be Sony vs Nintendo vs whoever is the victor of the PC accessibility wars.
What are the PC accessibility wars? Both Microsoft and Valve have aspirations of making PC more frictionless and console-like for normies to get into. Valve is doing it because they have a gigantic ecosystem where they get a 30% cut of every game sale. Microsoft are doing it because their console business imploded and they now see PC as the land of milk and Game Pass.
Generally speaking there is a lot of money and interest in PC gaming. Game sales and Steam CCU numbers keep going up on PC. Every gen Z and Alpha wants to build a rig because all their favourite streamers are gaming on it ("specs in the bio"). The zoomers don't have the brand loyalty that millennials and gen X had, or decades of digital purchases built up on consoles which they're guilt tripped into maintaining in perpetuity.
In the long run, all of this is bad news for Sony. Today they maintain their billions in profit not with the tiny handful of tentpole game releases they bother to shit out every year. They make their money the same way Valve does - via a 30% cut on every transaction which happens within their ecosystem. So they need people in their ecosystem spending as much money as possible on
everything, not just their own games. Like Xbox, they cannot survive as a big player via just their own SIE releases.
Now, it's not so much that Sony will start losing people from their ecosystem to PC (they will lose people, but due to aging out the hobby). It's the people born every minute who in the following generations Sony are going to have to fight tooth and nail to convince that PlayStation is the right choice over a more open, more powerful and increasingly accessible PC platform.
Does that mean Sony will stop porting games to PC? Not for a while. They like the free money too much and Hermen Hulk earnestly believes that they can entice PC gamers over to PlayStation by dangling a carrot in front of them and saying "see this? You can get a sequel to this on PS5". That won't work if they keep porting the stuff! People just learn to play a little waiting game.
I think as PC gains more and more momentum and PlayStation gradually loses steam in successive generations (they're struggling to reach PS4 numbers right now), they'll re-evaluate their PC port stance and take a more protectionist, Nintendo-like approach. In the here and now it's free money from releasing on a 'separate' ecosystem, but there will come a tipping point when that ecosystem becomes a more direct threat to theirs. Of course the strategy will change then.
Andrew House correctly
warned about the threat of PC to their business almost a decade ago:
"We wanted to keep those people within our eco-system by giving them the very best and very highest [performance quality]."