My point is that they cannot. The system is a failure and cannot be restored. All investments at this point are subject to the sunk cost fallacy.
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Is there enough in the pipeline to save the Wii U?
- Thread starter CrazedProfessional
- Start date
My point is that they cannot. The system is a failure and cannot be restored. All investments at this point are subject to the sunk cost fallacy.
Well... there's enough that makes me feel excited to own a Wii U. So there's that.
I dunno what else could possibly come out to make people want one that don't already want one from what's been shown. Most likely there's a lot of people people who wouldn't buy one anyway even if what they 'say' they wanted actually came out.
For them I hope it turns around. For me, I'm enjoying the scramble for fun innovative games that are coming and the deals (like MK8 free game deal) that come along with it.
I dunno what else could possibly come out to make people want one that don't already want one from what's been shown. Most likely there's a lot of people people who wouldn't buy one anyway even if what they 'say' they wanted actually came out.
For them I hope it turns around. For me, I'm enjoying the scramble for fun innovative games that are coming and the deals (like MK8 free game deal) that come along with it.
themagicalkitsune
Member
I don't think so...but the Wii U games lineup is shaping up to be the best one since the SNES days.
/nohyperbole
/nohyperbole
Playing the same games over and over would get quite boring
Randolph Freelander
Member
Nintendo was at E3?
The Wii U is irrelevant, nothing is changing it.
The Wii U is irrelevant, nothing is changing it.
Ninja Scooter
Member
Sony and MS have a much more varied lbrary that attracts multiple types of consumers. Everybody jokes that the Xbox was a "CoD box" but in reality, those games sell what? 15-20 million copies ever year? While there is 80 million Xboxes out there. Clearly something else is also attracting those people. It might be Madden and the variety of sports games. It might be Gears and Halo. It might be GTA. There is a lot of crossover in those audiences but there is also "something for everyone" and that is something Sony and MS cultivate not only with their first party games but with third party relationships.
I think that Nintendo announced enough content that I will be pleased with my purchase when I make it. That said, I don't think they really showed anything to pull in anyone who was not already considering a future Wii U purchase. Therefore, I don't see their sales trajectory spiking dramatically, they will probably still end up at GC level of sales.
Wii U's lineup was actually better than most give it credit for. Besides that you may be right... though I would say probably a ways better than N64 but maybe just MAYBE only slightly better than GCN.
Maybe if you only owned one game for the console.
Is it though?
Aside from keeping Wii U owners happy (and lets face it Nintendo can't afford to annoy the few fans it has left), what about the way the HD development has obviously caused Ninty developers trouble?
I'd say giving each team experience on a HD console is valid and certainly dropping out games (that let's face it will be compatible with the next gen console) might pick up a few fans, or keep a few more around than otherwise.
I'd be VERY wary of picking up a new console early on if they'd dropped the Wii U this year or even next year. I don't feel like I've had my money's worth form my investment yet and I'd be concerned about what if this one isn't an immediate success either.
They can and should launch a lot earlier than Sony and MS next time around, and they should do it with a slate of games that look the nuts and a set of dev teams capable of producing HD content at the required rate.
I'd be concerned any console rushed out now would suffer all the problems of Wii U and then some and probably finish off Nintendo.
digita1alchemy
Member
Obviously there needs to be more support from 3rd parties, but with what they showed at E3 I think its possible they can save the system from being a complete failure. I think Amiibo is the real wild card here. It's fascinating to me that Nintendo is (probably) the only company out of the big 3 that can carry their console on their own backs. Imagine if the XB1 or PS4 had a similarly pathetic level of 3rd party support.
TitusGroan
Banned
They can make games that sell well enough on a smaller userbase that they still turn a profit, as they did with Gamecube.
And that doesn't address the point I made in my other reply, that it is not my problem as a gamer to worry about bottom lines. Not if it is a choice between that or more games for my system. My main and only concern is that I get more stuff to play, it is Nintendo's problem to worry about how to make a profit while providing that. It is not in my interest to give up games to play just to turn their bottom line from red to black.
I don't believe Nintendo will make a huge amount of money on Wii U, but I am not better off as a gamer for getting less to play. By that logic, I'd be even better off if Nintendo hadn't even sunk money into 3D World, yet conversely, I feel better off as a player for having had the chance to play that game and experience the fun it gave.
Financial results?
Is that based on current sales you have access to? Feeling about how this Christmas will unfold? Scientific evaluation of Mario Kart and Smash chances to attract previous fans of the series? Study on how people perceive Wii U now? The way I see it, the only failure is not to rebound after a failure. And boy did Nintendo rebound these last couple of weeks.
The only thing tangible in your assumption is that 3rd parties left, waiting for Nintendo to grow a userbase before they come back. It's a risk for Nintendo, but their big brands can totally make up for it. See how Mario Kart is performing since launch.
Metallix87
Member
I disagree, since it ensures that consumers know they won't be left with another dead box with no games if they invest in Nintendo hardware. Abandoning now means people will be less willing to jump in early next time.
Gucci Messiah
Banned
How do you know the Wii U is a money sink? Do you know exactly how much profit they're bringing in? Do you know what Nintendo considers to be successful? Can you predict the future and see the Wii U won't turn things around? I don't get why people think Nintendo should jump ship and abandon the Wii U 2 years after launch, especially when Mario Kart just hit and Smash/Zelda are on the horizon.
It seems to me like you're just making a bunch of assumptions. How about we wait another year before saying bury the system.
I think everyone expects Smash to move a ton of consoles but enough to make it competitve with Xbox sales is the part they will find questionable.
Treehouse IMO saved Nintendo.
In a normal press conference most people would've found several of their game announcements uncompelling. I myself had a negative opinion of Splatoon.
I even skipped the Splatoon segments on Treehouse until I noticed the gaf thread kept growing so I gave it a look over and it's growing on me enough to have a positive opinion. It still doesn't grab my interest enough as a must buy but I think Splatoon will also shift consoles considering the noticeable acclaim it is getting.
Shadow_FFVI
Member
The number of games coming to the Wii U is enough to warrant me buying it.
Doubt the Wii U numbers will change all that much in the grand scheme of things, though.
I wonder what will Nintendo's approach will be with their next console. A jump in specs set to surpass the PS4 by a big enough margin? Something that will attract third party publishers?
Just releasing something on par with the PS4 in 2016 will just have the same results as when the Wii U released on par with the PS3 and 360 (slightly better hardware).
Doubt the Wii U numbers will change all that much in the grand scheme of things, though.
I wonder what will Nintendo's approach will be with their next console. A jump in specs set to surpass the PS4 by a big enough margin? Something that will attract third party publishers?
Just releasing something on par with the PS4 in 2016 will just have the same results as when the Wii U released on par with the PS3 and 360 (slightly better hardware).
Carpe Diem
Banned
My prediction:
Wii U will be the best selling console this holiday season. After all the positive buzz from Mario Kart and a new Smash Bundle at $250, plus no real system sellers on the other platforms (Xbox does have the Halo Collection but PS4 has what? Driveclub?? Yeah ok), there is no reason for people to spend the extra ~$150. And hopefully by that time other great 1st-part games will be a little cheaper for people to stack up for the next year.
Wii U will be the best selling console this holiday season. After all the positive buzz from Mario Kart and a new Smash Bundle at $250, plus no real system sellers on the other platforms (Xbox does have the Halo Collection but PS4 has what? Driveclub?? Yeah ok), there is no reason for people to spend the extra ~$150. And hopefully by that time other great 1st-part games will be a little cheaper for people to stack up for the next year.
I think we need to stop measuring the Wii U's success or failure in relation to it being a direct competitor to the PS4 and Xbone, because it's absolutely not. Nintendo is never going to compete with these guys in the same market ever again, and instead it looks like they're going to work on curating their own ecosystem that revolves around their classic IPs and also new unique experiences. They're not on the same playing field as Sony and Microsoft. They're not even playing the same fucking sport anymore.
I think the Wii U will start doing better as time goes on and they further develop its incredible library, but it will always be a failure if you compare it to previous successes or the successes of other consoles. At the end of the day, the only thing that will matter is whether or not they made a profit, learned some lessons for the next console, and continue to make great games.
I think the Wii U will start doing better as time goes on and they further develop its incredible library, but it will always be a failure if you compare it to previous successes or the successes of other consoles. At the end of the day, the only thing that will matter is whether or not they made a profit, learned some lessons for the next console, and continue to make great games.
There should be no chalkboard. It's not going to be saved. Doesn't we can't enjoy splatoon.
shinra-bansho
Member
The previous two years of operating losses, on the reasonable assumption that the 3DS ecosystem is profitable tells us that the Wii U has been a money sink - a sufficient money sink to negate any positive operating margin derived from the 3DS.
I didn't particularly find it embarrassing but presumably they're referring to things like the Joy Seraphim introduction.
We're not anymore at this stage. As I mentioned in my earlier post the points of comparison are the Dreamcast and the GameCube.
Eolz
Member
I'm not sure if it is the good thread to talk about this, but as I don't have thread creation privileges...
The guy that teased/leaked Devil's Third being a WiiU exclusive said in a gameblog E3 reaction video that he knew back then that there were 3 similar exclusives (not necessarily violent, but originally multiplat/not exclusive) that were going to be announced this year.
Here's the link , comes at around 8:10 .
I'm french, and even if I'm sure of what he just said, and that gameblog leaked good things in the past (mario kart bundle, sales numbers in france, etc), they also sometimes do this kind of thing to get more viewers.
So please understand, don't get too excited, but there may be more coming out of nowhere (like SMTxFE, Hyrule Warriors, and more in random Nintendo Directs).
The guy that teased/leaked Devil's Third being a WiiU exclusive said in a gameblog E3 reaction video that he knew back then that there were 3 similar exclusives (not necessarily violent, but originally multiplat/not exclusive) that were going to be announced this year.
Here's the link , comes at around 8:10 .
I'm french, and even if I'm sure of what he just said, and that gameblog leaked good things in the past (mario kart bundle, sales numbers in france, etc), they also sometimes do this kind of thing to get more viewers.
So please understand, don't get too excited, but there may be more coming out of nowhere (like SMTxFE, Hyrule Warriors, and more in random Nintendo Directs).
Forgive me if I'm not remembering my Video Game History correctly, but wasn't one of the reasons Sega tanked the console business was because of its short console life span? You must also remember that economics must also include non-money costs and benefits as well. The current perception right now is that both the 3DS and the Wii U are in the middle of their cycles, regardless of where they actually are. Getting rid of the Wii U now, would feel like a blow to the face for the 6 million who have already bought a Wii U. This isn't the Virtua Boy, where it sold less than a million and was in the market for a few months.
And furthermore, please explain in great detail how you got through economic analysis that dropping the Wii U and chasing the Xbox/PS4 will in any way would increase profits anymore than what they are doing now.
Metallix87
Member
Yeah, the chalkboard should've disappeared after Christmas sales figures.
Ninja Scooter
Member
People said the same thing when XBone and PS4 had meh launch lineups and Wii U had the critical darling Super Mario 3D World. Did it matter? You are looking at exclusives only as if that matters. Games like Destiny and Far Cry 4 and the annual sports and CoD games will be huge for Sony and MS just like they were when the systems launched. There is almost ZERO chance of Wii U outselling MS/Sony this holiday.
I thought those profits came mostly from GBA being a huge sales monster. The GC itself (and I had one, it was awesome) was pretty much a failure. Iwata has said as much and it's the reason they did such a 180 in terms of business strategy with the Wii.
hydragonwarrior
Member
Gamecube like success at best. I imagine the same people who got the Gamecube will eventually get a Wii U.
The original Wii casual audience is lingering in Apple/etc. land, but Nintendo needs to learn how to
1. Maintain the interest of casuals if they choose to go after that audience again
2. Maintain the interest of developers
The original Wii casual audience is lingering in Apple/etc. land, but Nintendo needs to learn how to
1. Maintain the interest of casuals if they choose to go after that audience again
2. Maintain the interest of developers
2012: you cant say wii u is a failure yet, give it another year!
2013: give it another year!
2014: give it another year!
The sales are not gonna turn around, however I think they'll have salvaged some reputation and it wont be remembered as negatively.
Everyone said this last year too, we all know how that turned out. And people won't be buying these consoles for first party games. They will be buying them for third party games like destiny.
I'd agree with all of this.
RobFox64tm
Member
I was pleasantly surprised at how much focus Nintendo put on Wii U at this years E3, and the amount of first party games on the way for the platform was way more than I was expecting. So much so, that I've regained a bit of confidence that we could yet see an HD Metroid game on the console. Fingers crossed!
As for the systems fortunes changing, I think they will see a climb. It will never do as well as Wii, and maybe not even as well as Gamecube, but I think it can approach it pretty closely if Nintendo can keep up the positive image they've started recently. Of course this isn't taking into account the Amiibo figure line, which could very well take off like a rocket if Nintendo plays their cards right.
Nintendo had a lot of interesting ideas; many of which weren't the typical safe bets that they've come to rely on in recent times either, so there's a sense of newness to a lot of what's on the way. It sucks that there is pretty much zero 3rd party support now, but what's there has a nice variety in spite of that. I'm optimistic of what Wii U could become, but even if it doesn't find a bigger audience, I'm confident it'll be a system I'll enjoy for the duration.
As for the systems fortunes changing, I think they will see a climb. It will never do as well as Wii, and maybe not even as well as Gamecube, but I think it can approach it pretty closely if Nintendo can keep up the positive image they've started recently. Of course this isn't taking into account the Amiibo figure line, which could very well take off like a rocket if Nintendo plays their cards right.
Nintendo had a lot of interesting ideas; many of which weren't the typical safe bets that they've come to rely on in recent times either, so there's a sense of newness to a lot of what's on the way. It sucks that there is pretty much zero 3rd party support now, but what's there has a nice variety in spite of that. I'm optimistic of what Wii U could become, but even if it doesn't find a bigger audience, I'm confident it'll be a system I'll enjoy for the duration.
CosmicQueso
Member
It's no longer about the Wii U... it's about maintaining the core fanbase long enough to launch its next console successfully while trying to recapture the mass market.
On our subject:
Nintendo's E3 2014: You're Buying a Wii U Now, Right? | Kotaku
Nintendo's E3 2014: You're Buying a Wii U Now, Right? | Kotaku
Carpe Diem
Banned
Well said.
wapplew
Member
I think Nintendo made a good case for me to buy WiiU as secondary console.
Xbone and PS4 game are mostly same experience, but WiiU exclusive just something totally different.
If they bring the price down this holiday, they might sell better than Xbone just because many will choose WiiU as secondary console instead.
Xbone and PS4 game are mostly same experience, but WiiU exclusive just something totally different.
If they bring the price down this holiday, they might sell better than Xbone just because many will choose WiiU as secondary console instead.
OsirisBlack
Banned
Thank you for the clarity
You know that cynicism is as about as realistic as idealism right? I could apply the sunk cost fallacy to the entire video game industry. Why should Microsoft bother with the Xbox One? The Xbox flopped financially and the Xbox 360 only made profits at the end of its lifespan. The PS3's first half of its lifetime was mocked for not having games and yet beat out the Xbox 360 after its reinventing.
The point I'm trying to make here is that the Sunk Cost Fallacy only works in retrospect. You cannot apply sunk cost fallacy to a current economic trend because reality has a good habit of turning things upside down. I mean, think real hard about every major success and failure in the gaming industry (and any industry really), could you really have guessed the future with any accuracy? I mean, now, looking back, you can see the mistakes but you fall into the retrospective fallacy when you do. Could you have honestly have said that Nintendo rapidly changing from a card company to a toy company to a toy and video game company would be a great success before it happened? No, but looking back you can see why it happened.
Damn. This thread is depressing.
It's not looking good for WiiU. Sorry, but Treehouse will soon be forgotten and won't be much of a sales factor. It's still about product, not presentation hype. The only thing that remains from E3 is the occasional "Best of E3" sticker on a game box. Unfortunately I don't think there's going to be a lot of those on WiiU games.
WiiU won't get Dreamcasted but it's going to plod along and be the biggest sales disappointment this gen.
It's not looking good for WiiU. Sorry, but Treehouse will soon be forgotten and won't be much of a sales factor. It's still about product, not presentation hype. The only thing that remains from E3 is the occasional "Best of E3" sticker on a game box. Unfortunately I don't think there's going to be a lot of those on WiiU games.
WiiU won't get Dreamcasted but it's going to plod along and be the biggest sales disappointment this gen.
Trevelyan9999
Banned
The Wii U was "pre-saved" when Nintendo released it in 2012. If the argument is if the Wii U can be saved in the Third Party area, then of course no it can't.
However, what Nintendo proved this E3 is that the Wii U is getting strong First Party support and it was a reassurance to everyone on the fence that this system is going to have a normal 5 year life span.
Also, Nintendo went 1 on 1 with their fans directly with the Smash Invitational and the Treehouse, it all helps a lot in the long run and will regain the trust they lost with those fans after the Wii situation.
The Wii U is going to have it's strongest selling year in 2014 and 2015 might be even higher after what they have showed.
However, what Nintendo proved this E3 is that the Wii U is getting strong First Party support and it was a reassurance to everyone on the fence that this system is going to have a normal 5 year life span.
Also, Nintendo went 1 on 1 with their fans directly with the Smash Invitational and the Treehouse, it all helps a lot in the long run and will regain the trust they lost with those fans after the Wii situation.
The Wii U is going to have it's strongest selling year in 2014 and 2015 might be even higher after what they have showed.
Ninja Scooter
Member
How many people do you really think have "secondary" consoles? People will buy XBones and PS4s in droves again this holiday because they will be upgrading from last gen. That is the market that makes or breaks a console, not the hardcore GAF'ers who have enough time and money to waste on games that they are concerned about a "secondary console".
Natureboy99
Banned
This. Like the Vita, I don't care about sales if it gets enough games I want to play, which after this E3, it has. Nintendo could be developing these games just for me for all I care.
TitusGroan
Banned
The Gamecube was a system with small hardware numbers and large software numbers for Nintendo. They sold 7 million each on Melee and Double Dash, 5.5 million on Sunshine and 3 million for Wind Waker (down from Ocarina, sure, but still more than enough to be profitable) as well as other million sellers like Luigi's Mansion, Animal Crossing and Metroid Prime.
Obviously costs have risen since then, but Nintendo are still very good at making big, good looking games on reasonable budgets. More importantly, with MK8 we can see it is possible for games on Wii U to sell with great starting momentum and achieve great figures. If gamers keep buying games like 3D World, MK8 and (inevitably) Smash and Zelda, it may be possible for Nintendo to turn a profit on software for Wii U.
D
Deleted member 752119
Unconfirmed Member
This. Only the hardcore crowd really buys more than one console. And plenty of fairly serious gamers are like me and no longer buy multiple consoles due to lack of gaming time now that we're older and have more career, family and social obligations eating up our free time.
I disagree with the sales part.. I mean it won't be XBONE sales.. but overall it will get a bump (i.e. selling better spring 2015 than it did spring 2014). but the second part is pretty much spot on and I think the bigger issue for Nintendo. The single biggest factor hurting Nintendo is that after DKCR released in 2010, Nintendo had TWO TOTAL notable releases for Wii until Wii U. On top of that after Mario Kart Wii (Apr 08) Nintendo only had two core releases through the holiday season the FOLLOWING year (Punch Out and NSMBWii which was largely regarded as a "port" of the DS game). There was a lot of ill will toward Nintendo from core gamers because of those years with Wii.
Nintendo has to keep this momentum going, with a successful AAA release no more than 8-9 months before their next system.