Great points, great points. Can't really touch on everything.
My prediction of 2021 and 2022 being strong is based on assuming things related to the virus don't get much worse. i.e. that any return in the fall doesn't impact unemployment or the economy any worse than this first wave and shut down. Unlike the 2008 recession where nearly every segment of the economy was impacted, this shutdown has mainly hurt the service industry and other lower middle class and below industries. Most white-collar jobs (aside of sales and in-person customer focused things) are things that are being done from home for full salary, skilled trades like electricians, carpenters etc. are essential business and never shut down etc.
I really hope that your more optimistic prediction will become true.
Problem is that analysts are already predicting a greater GDP loss than 2008 for the Eurozone and the US.... and we don't even know how long this will last and if a second wave will come.
March and April have been very good for video games because you had people spending all day at home at full salary.
Now, slowly the real effect of the pandemic will start to hit people while they start going back to work.
At my workplace (enterprise IT solutions) we initially saw an uptick in business in Feb&March. At the end of March the first projects were delayed by many clients. In April we decided to let people go, because of the bad outlook.
And we don't even have airlines or food service companies as clients.
All that said, I am and was mainly talking about AAA blockbusters as the thread seemed focused on the OP thinking this year was dry for those kind of games. And that's mostly what I play so as long as we're getting those games at a decent clip in 2021 and 2022 I'll be good to go. And I'm confident we will unless something way worse happens in terms of the virus and economy. You're likely right that other types of games may be more impacted, and as I noted I think Nintendo will struggle the most of the AAA publishers as they're already having some difficulties with even producing video events.
Yeah, fully agree here.
No matter how bad the economy will get, there's no way a game like "Uncharted 5" won't be a worthwhile investment for Sony.