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Isaac Asimov's Prediction in 1964 of what life will be like in 2014

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Sadly, between all the flying cars and underwater houses, it was this prediction that struck the truest:

Not all the world’s population will enjoy the gadgety world of the future to the full. A larger portion than today will be deprived and although they may be better off, materially, than today, they will be further behind when compared with the advanced portions of the world. They will have moved backward, relatively.
 

gdt

Member
Hit and miss but this is 50 years ago. Asimov was such a great man. Awesome autobiography too.
 

whitehawk

Banned
To some people it may seem inaccurate, but for a 50 year prediction, it's pretty spot on. I doubt I could predict what 2064 will be like as accurately as him. Oh man, I'll be 72 by then.
 

Macattk15

Member
I'm not sure what was so holy shit about it. He had more misses than hits. Like a lot of future predictions, he just threw a bunch of shit at the wall and figured some if it would hit.

This. As many have said.

Moon colonies settled it for me.
 
Reminds me of nostradamus.
'predicts' thousands of things.
half a dozen stick
"holy shit"

It's like Michael pachter on the gaming side.
 

mclem

Member
It amuses me that the most consistent way he's incorrect is in saying that there will be a 2014 World's Fair...

...why don't we have World's Fairs any more?
 

Zekes!

Member
Aight guys I'm gonna make a prediction about the year 2063

Sega will have made a startling comeback in previous decades to become the dominating company in entertainment and daily life. Movies, books and video games evolve in to one form of entertainment and be known as 'Segas'.
 

Rapstah

Member
Communications will become sight-sound and you will see as well as hear the person you telephone. The screen can be used not only to see the people you call but also for studying documents and photographs and reading passages from books. Synchronous satellites, hovering in space will make it possible for you to direct-dial any spot on earth, including the weather stations in Antarctica (shown in chill splendor as part of the ’64 General Motors exhibit).

He would be 100% correct here if he wasn't trying to be specific and provide examples.
 
The world of A.D. 2014 will have few routine jobs that cannot be done better by some machine than by any human being. Mankind will therefore have become largely a race of machine tenders. Schools will have to be oriented in this direction… All the high-school students will be taught the fundamentals of computer technology will become proficient in binary arithmetic and will be trained to perfection in the use of the computer languages that will have developed out of those like the contemporary “Fortran” (from “formula translation”).

Yeah, watching how many of my friends went into programming and networking, I'd say this is spot on.
 
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NinjaFridge

Unconfirmed Member
It amuses me that the most consistent way he's incorrect is in saying that there will be a 2014 World's Fair...

...why don't we have World's Fairs any more?

Nobody gives a shit about them. We already have plenty of trade shows where companies can show off the latest shit they've made.
 

Trin

Member
Reminds me of nostradamus.
'predicts' thousands of things.
half a dozen stick
"holy shit"

It's like Michael pachter on the gaming side.

That's what I was reminded of as well, although I'd say less Nostradamus and more da Vinci, since he was actually thinking of practical applications, not just rambling obscure "prophecies".

Some of it is an interesting bit of ingenuity, but most of it is being able to recognize which current tasks/needs could possibly be managed mechanically. "I foresee that in the future, we will continue to invent technology to make things more convenient." Oh, okay.
 
Lol underwater housing haha
We have underwater hotels
instanbul_underwater.jpg

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/06/15/underwater-hotels_n_3435979.html
But other than having a huge aquarium as a window, I don't see the purpouse of that.
 
Not all the world’s population will enjoy the gadgety world of the future to the full. A larger portion than today will be deprived and although they may be better off, materially, than today, they will be further behind when compared with the advanced portions of the world. They will have moved backward, relatively.
The real travesty in his predictions.
 
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NinjaFridge

Unconfirmed Member
Still yet to see anybody predict the internet. That came out of nowhere.

William Gibson predicted something along the lines of the World Wide Web, and I'm pretty sure other writers had similar predictions.
 
So apprently you can't go in your room and draw, and then sell that drawing, because then that would make you an artist, and well, only the elite can be involved in creative work....

what the hell was that last part about?
 
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NinjaFridge

Unconfirmed Member
So apprently you can't go in your room and draw, and then sell that drawing, because then that would make you an artist, and well, only the elite can be involved in creative work....

what the hell was that last part about?

He said the people who are able to do that will be the elite.
 

SkyOdin

Member
This.

Glass TV cubes for 3D? "Auto-meal" kitchens? Robot maids? F-Zero hover ships for cars? It's pretty much your stereotypical "in the future" 60's newsreel.

To be fair, some of those are accurate. People consume a lot of frozen/preserved food that has been re-heated in the microwave, and the 3-D display cubes are now a real thing.

Some of the space stuff would have been more accurate if humans had continued to amount of effort spent on space stuff that brought us to the moon.
 

Opiate

Member
This.

Glass TV cubes for 3D? "Auto-meal" kitchens? Robot maids? F-Zero hover ships for cars? It's pretty much your stereotypical "in the future" 60's newsreel.

Agreed. Technological development is extremely difficult to anticipate. Some technologies which seem imminent end up hitting a roadblock and stalling for decades; battery technology, for example, has stalled a lot of seemingly ripe technologies because we just can't figure out how to make batteries last longer. Conversely, some things which weren't even imagined in the 1960s seem commonplace today, like the internet.

Put succinctly; the best we can do when predicting the future is basically to take present day technologies and advance them in power, speed, and efficiency 30+ years. That hasn't historically been a very effective method of prediction, just better than guessing at random.
 

Irminsul

Member
Still yet to see anybody predict the internet. That came out of nowhere.
There is a (German) book called "Die Welt in 100 Jahren" ("The World in a 100 years") that was written by different authors in 1910 on the topic of how they envision the world in 2010. While there are a lot of things in it that, well, didn't really materialise, there is pretty much the prediction of smartphones in there, always connected and all. I'll have a look if I can find and translate that passage.
 

Trey

Member
Interesting read. His moon colonies prediction makes sense with respect to the climate at the time. Space exploration was the arms race of that day and led to a technological explosion.

Guess he thought that trend would have lasted longer than it did.
 
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