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January 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes February 10th

Kayant

Member
Feb 25, 2014
6,015
0
0
[3DS] 75K
[PS4] 280K
[WIU] 61K
[XB1] 210K

I do not think the PS4 doing double Xbox1 numbers of last January will hold true this time, but the momentum that Xbox was supposed to carry into 2015 is clearly not there. With holiday hype down I think we will see a return to norm,but with a little more competitive Xbox1 thanks to pricing. Subject to change with retail insights^^

September was huge for the PS4 due to Destiny which helped increase the gap.

The system doesn't have a game before the Holiday season with that same amount of hype. 360/PS3 is done and the XB1/PS4 are standard now (instead of NEW!). Due to all of that, I don't think the gap between the two systems will be as big as it was last year.

PS4 had an overall lead of 1.2 Million after October NPD if I remember correctly. I don't think the gap will ever get that big this year. Could see it getting to about 1 Million before November and then possibly going back down to around 500-600K when 2016 starts depending on what MS will do with the Xbox One during the Holiday season (deals/price drops).

Edit: Wonder if there will be an Xbox One bundle for Madden NFL 16...

Yh am upping my XB1 numbers.

Damn, it's hard to believe the PS4 is so far ahead of the X1 in those charts. And some people believed the holiday momentum would carry on....

I don't know if I would call it momentum :p
 

Bgamer90

Banned
Mar 20, 2007
20,961
0
0
If you think the gap will shrink like it did this year you must be predicting Sony to stay at $399. No way that happens.

Never said that. I just think that MS will be willing to drop the price again to keep their system cheaper.

Also there doesn't have to be one game like Destiny to increase the gap. Many games over the year can provide boost.

Which games then? What games will have as much hype as Destiny before the Holiday season? I would even go as far as to say that actual PS4 exclusives outside of Uncharted 4 probably won't help the system as much as Destiny did last year in North America (especially if there aren't special system bundles).

Plus I'm pretty sure there will be a price drop come September for Ps4 to maintain yoy growth.

I'm expecting a price drop too. I just feel that MS will be willing to give their console another drop if it happens though.
 

Asd202

Member
Jun 18, 2013
11,412
0
0
33
Poland
PS4 had an overall lead of 1.2 Million after October NPD if I remember correctly. I don't think the gap will ever get that big this year. Could see it getting to about 1 Million before November and then possibly going back down to around 500-600K when 2016 starts depending on what MS will do with the Xbox One during the Holiday season (deals/price drops).

What if Sony also price drops this year?
 

Purest 78

Member
Aug 20, 2014
2,903
1
0
I think a huge part of Xbox demographic Are young people teenagers to Be precise. Simply because it's the brand they grew up with. So I believe alot of them got there XB1's for Christmas. I think Ps4 will win the year again, and XB1 to do well during the holidays.
 

Kayant

Member
Feb 25, 2014
6,015
0
0
On 2015 chart the diff. is not that big.

PS4- 9th
XBO- 19th

Compared to last year the difference is less also. 13 last year vs 10 this year

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-01/videogames/ref=zg_bsnr_tab_t_bsar#1

PS4- 3th
XBO- 16th

So going by amazon the difference should definitely by smaller this time.

Negative momentum, then? XD

I don't know loool... A great temp sale ;) I just feel there was no momentum coming from the holiday sale -

Last week before price went back up (Dec 29th) -

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-12-29/videogames/ref=zg_bsnr_tab_t_bsar

XBO- 6th
PS4- 12th

Week offer ended (Jan 5th) *Offer ended on Jan 4th
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2015-01-05/videogames/ref=zg_bsnr_tab_t_bsar

PS4- 16th
XBO- 40th

The following week (Jan 12th)
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2015-01-12/videogames/ref=zg_bsnr_tab_t_bsar

PS4- 7th
XBO- 27th

We know how the remaining two weeks from my earlier post
 

Javin98

Banned
Nov 30, 2014
6,851
1
0
Ipoh, Malaysia
Compared to last year the difference is less also. 13 last year vs 10 this year

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-01/videogames/ref=zg_bsnr_tab_t_bsar#1

PS4- 3th
XBO- 16th

So going by amazon the difference should definitely by smaller this time.



I don't know loool... A great temp sale ;) I just feel there was no momentum coming from the holiday sale -

Last week before price went back up (Dec 29th) -

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-12-29/videogames/ref=zg_bsnr_tab_t_bsar

XBO- 6th
PS4- 12th

Week offer ended (Jan 5th) *Offer ended on Jan 4th
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2015-01-05/videogames/ref=zg_bsnr_tab_t_bsar

PS4- 16th
XBO- 40th

The following week (Jan 12th)
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2015-01-12/videogames/ref=zg_bsnr_tab_t_bsar

PS4- 7th
XBO- 27th

We know how the remaining two weeks from my earlier post
This momentum narrative was never real and only created by people who believe strong sales will automatically follow into the next month. Anyway, about the difference between this year and last, don't all the recent amiibo interest have anything to do with this? Rankings are not very reliable when it comes to predicting the gap but we can make a rough estimate. So I'm guessing ~100K.
 

vpance

Member
Jun 20, 2005
9,171
3,486
1,650
I think a huge part of Xbox demographic Are young people teenagers to Be precise. Simply because it's the brand they grew up with. So I believe alot of them got there XB1's for Christmas. I think Ps4 will win the year again, and XB1 to do well during the holidays.

Yeah, I think it was a mix. The Xbox loyalists needed a green light to buy, after all the negative PR and whatnot. The amazing deals made it "ok" to jump in again. That, and parents who were looking for the cheapest next gen console as a present for their kids.

This year I don't expect a repeat of the holiday trouncing though, since Sony will probably cut to $299 if they know what's good for them.
 

BokehKing

Banned
Feb 10, 2014
10,842
1
0
Long Island, NY
Which games then? What games will have as much hype as Destiny before the Holiday season? I would even go as far as to say that actual PS4 exclusives outside of Uncharted 4 probably won't help the system as much as Destiny did last year in North America (especially if there aren't special system bundles)
The next Destiny is coming out in September, if you venture outside of this particular forum of NeoGaf you would know the game is still widely popular. Plus a lot of Destiny's sales on Ps4 were digital, and of course NPD is living in the stone age when it comes to digital
 

SDCowboy

Member
Feb 23, 2014
9,156
63
0
The next Destiny is coming out in September, if you venture outside of this particular forum of NeoGaf you would know the game is still widely popular. Plus a lot of Destiny's sales on Ps4 were digital, and of course NPD is living in the stone age when it comes to digital

Destiny 2 is coming out this year?
 

michaelius

Banned
Jan 5, 2012
16,327
2,193
935
September was huge for the PS4 due to Destiny which helped increase the gap.

The system doesn't have a game before the Holiday season with that same amount of hype. 360/PS3 is done and the XB1/PS4 are standard now (instead of NEW!). Due to all of that, I don't think the gap between the two systems will be as big as it was last year.

PS4 had an overall lead of 1.2 Million after October NPD if I remember correctly. I don't think the gap will ever get that big this year. Could see it getting to about 1 Million before November and then possibly going back down to around 500-600K when 2016 starts depending on what MS will do with the Xbox One during the Holiday season (deals/price drops).

Edit: Wonder if there will be an Xbox One bundle for Madden NFL 16...


600K in 10 months is only 60k/month diffrence - not that hard to reach - especially with some good games in early 2015 to push sales
 

Abdiel

Member
Nov 2, 2013
1,534
1
0
I guess I'll be the first of us "BishChecked" to leave a comment, eh?

As soon as the price drop ended for the XB1, it was like someone pulled the emergency brake, people were coming in with the impression the price was still lower, and were leaving annoyed, rather than pay the difference, and the momentum tanked really, really fast. Once the price dropped again, well, it certainly picked up more speed again, but it isn't really selling on the same level as it was prior. That gap in time really didn't help them. I'm not saying that people went out and bought a PS4 instead, but some people just elected to simply not buy at all. We'll see if those customers return sooner or later.

PS4 seems to have smoothly transitioned, and the Last of Us bonus aspect to the bundle doesn't really seem to have made the system sell all that much 'faster'... it is nice though, that customers know they're getting something in the box even as part of the standard purchase, seems to sway some potential haggler types. PS4 won January handily for all the stores/districts I checked. Not really sure on exactly how big of a gap handily will turn out to be on the final numbers, but it was not a close game for us, at least.
 

Javin98

Banned
Nov 30, 2014
6,851
1
0
Ipoh, Malaysia
I guess I'll be the first of us "BishChecked" to leave a comment, eh?

As soon as the price drop ended for the XB1, it was like someone pulled the emergency brake, people were coming in with the impression the price was still lower, and were leaving annoyed, rather than pay the difference, and the momentum tanked really, really fast. Once the price dropped again, well, it certainly picked up more speed again, but it isn't really selling on the same level as it was prior. That gap in time really didn't help them. I'm not saying that people went out and bought a PS4 instead, but some people just elected to simply not buy at all. We'll see if those customers return sooner or later.

PS4 seems to have smoothly transitioned, and the Last of Us bonus aspect to the bundle doesn't really seem to have made the system sell all that much 'faster'... it is nice though, that customers know they're getting something in the box even as part of the standard purchase, seems to sway some potential haggler types. PS4 won January handily for all the stores/districts I checked. Not really sure on exactly how big of a gap handily will turn out to be on the final numbers, but it was not a close game for us, at least.
Very interesting indeed. Thanks, Abdiel! You have no idea how eagerly I waited for your insight. So the PS4 outsold the X1 handily in your stores? Is a ~100K gap or more reasonable? Also, how many X1's do you have in warehouses. I'm really curious about that to get a better idea of X1 sold through numbers
 
Jun 18, 2014
1,841
0
0
Seoul, South Korea
I guess I'll be the first of us "BishChecked" to leave a comment, eh?

As soon as the price drop ended for the XB1, it was like someone pulled the emergency brake, people were coming in with the impression the price was still lower, and were leaving annoyed, rather than pay the difference, and the momentum tanked really, really fast. Once the price dropped again, well, it certainly picked up more speed again, but it isn't really selling on the same level as it was prior. That gap in time really didn't help them. I'm not saying that people went out and bought a PS4 instead, but some people just elected to simply not buy at all. We'll see if those customers return sooner or later.

PS4 seems to have smoothly transitioned, and the Last of Us bonus aspect to the bundle doesn't really seem to have made the system sell all that much 'faster'... it is nice though, that customers know they're getting something in the box even as part of the standard purchase, seems to sway some potential haggler types. PS4 won January handily for all the stores/districts I checked. Not really sure on exactly how big of a gap handily will turn out to be on the final numbers, but it was not a close game for us, at least.

Always appreciated^^ Maybe I need to adjust my numbers a little... any word on 3ds? People waiting for the new model?
 

Abdiel

Member
Nov 2, 2013
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Very interesting indeed. Thanks, Abdiel! You have no idea how eagerly I waited for your insight. So the PS4 outsold the X1 handily in your stores? Is a ~100K gap or more reasonable? Also, how many X1's do you have in warehouses. I'm really curious about that to get a better idea of X1 sold through numbers

We've got a lot of stock of XB1's in our DCs, from what I see. They're still moving, but the number is not small, by any means. Certainly far more than our PS4 stock, but Sony has gotten very good at replenishing us as soon as we need it, steady, constant shipments. We got massive shipments of XB1 in that holiday push, and now we're just kinda burning that down. As to the actual gap, I don't like to predict that, because our stores are only one of the major chains, and I can't extrapolate how the numbers gap will work out on that scale.

Always appreciated^^ Maybe I need to adjust my numbers a little... any word on 3ds? People waiting for the new model?

There's not a lot of buzz around the 3DS in the stores I've visited. There's been a good number of preorders of MM 3DS, but the system itself seems to be looked at as kind of a "Why?". They're not doing a great job of communicating why customers should want one, it seems.
 
Jun 18, 2014
1,841
0
0
Seoul, South Korea
The next Destiny is coming out in September, if you venture outside of this particular forum of NeoGaf you would know the game is still widely popular. Plus a lot of Destiny's sales on Ps4 were digital, and of course NPD is living in the stone age when it comes to digital

I think it will do very well, but expansions (even as a GOTY bundle variety) rarely do as well as full sequels. I think Batman in June will be the pre fall big hardware mover this year; it is current gen only, is sure to have a decent ad campaign, and will benefit from launching right after E3 where the future of these machines will get a little mainstream media attention. Would not be surprised to see PS4 pull off a 400K June with Batman's help.
 

Javin98

Banned
Nov 30, 2014
6,851
1
0
Ipoh, Malaysia
We've got a lot of stock of XB1's in our DCs, from what I see. They're still moving, but the number is not small, by any means. Certainly far more than our PS4 stock, but Sony has gotten very good at replenishing us as soon as we need it, steady, constant shipments. We got massive shipments of XB1 in that holiday push, and now we're just kinda burning that down. As to the actual gap, I don't like to predict that, because our stores are only one of the major chains, and I can't extrapolate how the numbers gap will work out on that scale.



There's not a lot of buzz around the 3DS in the stores I've visited. There's been a good number of preorders of MM 3DS, but the system itself seems to be looked at as kind of a "Why?". They're not doing a great job of communicating why customers should want one, it seems.
All right, if you're not too keen on giving numbers, I won't ask for them. Thanks anyway
 

Ravage_Hydra

Member
Oct 29, 2014
731
0
0
[PS4] 198k
[WIU] 84k
[3DS]125k
[XB1] 240k
[360] 48k
[PS3] 29k



Sorry till Sony cuts the price of the PS4 i just don't see it winning another NPD
 

The Shogun

Banned
Jul 24, 2014
3,433
0
0
Not sure what WBs and Techlands expectations are for Dying Light but if they kept them realistic they should be happy with it's performance.

Also PS4 > Xbone
 

Javin98

Banned
Nov 30, 2014
6,851
1
0
Ipoh, Malaysia
[PS4] 198k
[WIU] 84k
[3DS]125k
[XB1] 240k
[360] 48k
[PS3] 29k



Sorry till Sony cuts the price of the PS4 i just don't see it winning another NPD
If Amazon continues being right when it comes to predicting the winner, the PS4 is significantly ahead for this month. And Amazon has never been wrong for more than a year.
 

Chris1

Member
Jun 3, 2014
7,706
1
0
What is the "Bish Checked" tag for? is that for people who work in retail only and have been vetted by bish?

Personally expecting a bloodbath, though I do find Abdiel's post interesting that people didn't know it went back up in price.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
22,885
0
955
31
theflyingthoughtsblog.wordpress.com
There's not a lot of buzz around the 3DS in the stores I've visited. There's been a good number of preorders of MM 3DS, but the system itself seems to be looked at as kind of a "Why?". They're not doing a great job of communicating why customers should want one, it seems.

Mmmh...just for a comparison, do you have an idea what was the buzz around 3DS XL or 2DS before they launched in your DCs? Just to get an idea of the perspective.
 

The Shogun

Banned
Jul 24, 2014
3,433
0
0
What is the "Bish Checked" tag for? is that for people who work in retail only and have been vetted by bish?

Personally expecting a bloodbath, though I do find Abdiel's post interesting that people didn't know it went back up in price.

It means we have special telepathic abilities that allow us glimpses of the inner workings of the industry. Some of us use those for good. Some for evil. Some even for a bit of both.

Bish is the all mighty Sith Lord that bestowed these rare and powerful abilities unto us and thus we are blessed with his tag and guidance.

May the whole of GAF and the industry fear our wrath. We are legion.
 

Final Verdict

Member
Mar 5, 2014
1,811
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0
We've got a lot of stock of XB1's in our DCs, from what I see. They're still moving, but the number is not small, by any means. Certainly far more than our PS4 stock, but Sony has gotten very good at replenishing us as soon as we need it, steady, constant shipments. We got massive shipments of XB1 in that holiday push, and now we're just kinda burning that down. As to the actual gap, I don't like to predict that, because our stores are only one of the major chains, and I can't extrapolate how the numbers gap will work out on that scale.


There's not a lot of buzz around the 3DS in the stores I've visited. There's been a good number of preorders of MM 3DS, but the system itself seems to be looked at as kind of a "Why?". They're not doing a great job of communicating why customers should want one, it seems.

Interesting, thanks for the imput.

I was curious too, since you would know...
Do ya'll (retailers) control how many units you want shipped to you, or do the console makers just ship to you however many they feel like giving you?
 

Kayant

Member
Feb 25, 2014
6,015
0
0
I guess I'll be the first of us "BishChecked" to leave a comment, eh?

As soon as the price drop ended for the XB1, it was like someone pulled the emergency brake, people were coming in with the impression the price was still lower, and were leaving annoyed, rather than pay the difference, and the momentum tanked really, really fast. Once the price dropped again, well, it certainly picked up more speed again, but it isn't really selling on the same level as it was prior. That gap in time really didn't help them. I'm not saying that people went out and bought a PS4 instead, but some people just elected to simply not buy at all. We'll see if those customers return sooner or later.

PS4 seems to have smoothly transitioned, and the Last of Us bonus aspect to the bundle doesn't really seem to have made the system sell all that much 'faster'... it is nice though, that customers know they're getting something in the box even as part of the standard purchase, seems to sway some potential haggler types. PS4 won January handily for all the stores/districts I checked. Not really sure on exactly how big of a gap handily will turn out to be on the final numbers, but it was not a close game for us, at least.

Thanks a bunch for this was wondering if you remember was the pacing after the price drop again similar to this time last year?

Your info is great as it matches the amazon weekly charts quite well.

[PS4] 250K
[XB1] 100K
[3DS] 80K
[WIU] 110K

Any reason for Wii U above XB1? or XB1 being that low?

Edit - Didn't spot The Shogun and Cornbread78 post. Thanks as well for the insights.
 

The Shogun

Banned
Jul 24, 2014
3,433
0
0
Did you guys see a pick up in XB1 sales after the price correction, or did it stay the same?

Seems like it picked up a bit but not majorly. Nothing like November / December. Its not the holidays anynore though so thats to be expected.

From what I've seen PS4 should win but not a slaughter. Could be wrong on that though of course.