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January 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes February 9th

D

donny2112

Member
ITT, predict for the NPD January 2016 retail period (January 3-30, 2016) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Tuesday, February 9th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: January 3-30, 2016 (4 weeks, December was 5 weeks)
NPD Release: Thursday, February 11th @ 4 p.m. EST (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EST)

Format:
Note: WIU will only be counted for unit results and cardinal order bonus. It is not included for point results directly.

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good              Bad
[XB1] 300K       [XB1] 300 thousand
[XB1] 300,000    [XB1] 300.000
[XB1] 300000     [XB1] - 300000


Potential hardware impacting events in January:
Summary
nada


Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

December's Results
1. PS4 - 1.58m
2. XB1 - 1.38m
3. 3DS - 580K
4. WIU - 463K

December 2014 NPD thread
January 2015 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
D

donny2112

Member
So maybe I missed it, but was there anything big in January to drive sales? Saw that there were some gift card deals that sort of brought the prices back to $299, but nothing really stood out to me. Anything?
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
Re-posting for reference's sake (was updated again today)

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2016-01/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar

#4: Legend of Zelda Twilight Princess - WiiU
#5: The Division - PS4
#10: XB1 Wireless controller
#11: The Division - XB1
#12: Uncharted 4 - PS4
#13: DS4 black
#18: DS4 White
#19: Fallout 4 - PS4
#21: COD Blops 3 - PS4
#22: PS4 COD Blops 4 bundle - $349
#23: COD Blops 3 - XB1
#28: GTA V - PS4
#32: Uncharted Collection - PS4
#34: Battlefront - XB1
#36: Fallout 4 - XB1
#39: XB1 Elite wireless Controller
#40: Wii U remote plus
#41: The Legend of Zelda - WiiU
#42: Gravity Rush Remaster - PS4
#45: Rainbow 6 Siege - XB1
#49: XB1 Geow bundle - $349
#50: Rainbow 6 Siege - PS4
#52: The Division Gold ed. - PS4
#53: Dark Souls III - PS4
#55: GTA V - XB1
#59: Wii U Smash Bros controller White
#60: COD Ghosts - PS4
#61: Halo 5 - XB1
#64: Destiny TTK legendary ed. - XB1
#65: The Division Gold ed. - XB1
#70: Digimon Cyber Sleuth - PS4
#73: Destiny TTK Legendary ed. - PS4
#74: Red DS4
#75: Minecraft - XB1
#76: Street Fighter V - PS4
#77: Camo DS4
#78: FIFA 16 - PS4
#82: Final Fantasy XV - PS4
#83: WiiU Pro Controller
#86: Blue DS4
#87: Final Fantasy 7 Remake - PS4
#88: Battlefront Steelbook ed. - PS4
#91: Minecraft - PS4
#96: Madden 16 - XB1
#97: Ratchet & Clank - PS4
99: Lego Marvel Avengers - PS4

My prediction:

[PS4] 210k
[XB1] 150k
[3DS] 75k
[WIU] 45k
 
F

Fdkn

Member
[PS4] 210K
[XB1] 160K
[3DS] 64K
[WIU] 49K

woah almost the same as the one above, posted at the same time >.>
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
Kinda baffled by these really high 3DS estimates I'm seeing here.

Crimson_Gold said:
[3DS] 120k
Click to expand...

Raylan said:
[3DS] 120K
Click to expand...

DriftingSpirit said:
[3DS] 100K
Click to expand...

GribbleGrunger said:
[3DS] 140K
Click to expand...

harrisk954 said:
[3DS] 135K
Click to expand...

ghost4soul said:
[3DS] 115K
Click to expand...

Some people expect 3DS to break 100k units sold in January? Last year they sold less than 80k units and the trend YoY has been one of substantial declines. I'm just not seeing how that would be feasible. What do you all know that I don't?

I do think both XB1 and PS4 will be up just a little bit from last year. Especially since XB1 didnt have a temporary price increase for the first part of the month.

donny2112 said:
So maybe I missed it, but was there anything big in January to drive sales? Saw that there were some gift card deals that sort of brought the prices back to $299, but nothing really stood out to me. Anything?
Click to expand...

Nah nothing that I'm aware of. Should be a pretty straightforward month.
 
D

donny2112

Member
RED_RING said:
Re-posting that Twilight Princess is a beast. :p
Click to expand...

Would you mind not using the prediction format unless you're posting a prediction? Otherwise, the parser picks it up. Not the end of the world, as I go back over manually looking for things the parser may pick up inadvertently, but if you could just not use the prediction format outside of predictions, it'd help. Thanks!

RexNovis said:
Nah nothing that I'm aware of. Should be a pretty straightforward month.
Click to expand...

Okay, good. Thanks!
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
Reposting Welfare's extremely helpful YoY weekly average sales comparison

Welfare said:
To clear some pent up emotions because of some personal happenings that happened today, I'm going to continue (and probably make this a monthly thing) where we look to how the weekly average changes in the upcoming months. This comparison will be going from December (5 weeks) to January (4 weeks, but 5 every few years).

2010 (December)/11 (January)

Code: 
Xbox 360 December: 1860K / 5 = 372,000
Xbox 360 January: 381K / 4 = 95,250
Weekly average down 74%

Code: 
PS3 December: 1210K / 5 = 242,000
PS3 January: 267K / 4 = 66,750
Weekly average down 72%

Code: 
Wii December: 2360K / 5 = 472,000
Wii January: 319K / 4 = 79,750
Weekly average down 83%

2011/12

Code: 
Xbox 360 December: 1700K / 5 = 340,000
Xbox 360 January: 270K / 4 = 67,500
Weekly average down 80%

Code: 
PS3 December: 950K / 5 = 190,000
PS3 January: 195K / 4 = 48,750
Weekly average down 74%

Code: 
Wii December: 1060K / 5 = 212,000
Wii January: 152K / 4 = 38,000
Weekly average down 82%
Click to expand...

2012/13 (January 2013 is a 5 week month. Only happens once in awhile)

Code: 
Xbox 360 December: 1400K / 5 = 280,000
Xbox 360 January: 281K / 5 = 56,200
Weekly average down 80%

Code: 
PS3 December: 635K / 5 = 127,000
PS3 January: 200K / 5 = 40,000
Weekly average down 69%

Code: 
Wii December: 475K / 5 = 95,000
Wii January: 100K / 5 = 20,000
Weekly average down 79%

Code: 
Wii U December: 460K / 5 = 92,000
Wii U January: 57K / 5 = 11,400
Weekly average down 88%
Click to expand...

2013/14

Code: 
Xbox 360 December: 643K / 5 = 128,600
Xbox 360 January: 48K / 4 = 12,000
Weekly average down 91%

Code: 
Xbox One December: 908K / 5 = 181,600
Xbox One January: 141K / 4 = 35,250
Weekly average down 81%

Code: 
PS3 December: 299K / 5 = 59,800
PS3 January: 53K / 4 = 13,250
Weekly average down 78%

Code: 
PS4 December: 863K / 5 = 172,600
PS4 January: 271K / 4 = 67,750
Weekly average down 61%

Code: 
Wii December: 150K / 5 = 30,000
Wii January: 10K / 4 = 2,500
Weekly average down 92%

Code: 
Wii U December: 481K / 5 = 96,200
Wii U January: 49K / 4 = 12,250
Weekly average down 87%
Click to expand...

2014/15

Code: 
Xbox 360 December: 309K / 5 = 61,800
Xbox 360 January: 39K / 4 = 9,750
Weekly average down 84%

Code: 
Xbox One December: 1297K / 5 = 259,400
Xbox One January: 150K / 4 = 37,500
Weekly average down 86%

Code: 
PS3 December: 174K / 5 = 34,800
PS3 January: 34K / 4 = 8,500
Weekly average down 76%

Code: 
PS4 December: 1065K / 5 = 213,000
PS4 January: 189K / 4 = 47,250
Weekly average down 78%

Code: 
Wii December: 29K / 5 = 5,800
Wii January: 8K / 4 = 2,000
Weekly average down 66%

Code: 
Wii U December: 575K / 5 = 115,000
Wii U January: 63K / 4 = 15,750
Weekly average down 86%
Click to expand...


Some things to note.

  • January is dead.
  • January is REALLY dead.
  • January as a full month is almost always below the weekly average of December. The only 8th gen console that did not follow this was the PS4's first January, but this was thanks to supply issues at launch.

December 2015 Weekly averages for the 8th gen home consoles

Code: 
PS4 December: 1582K / 5 = 316,400
Xbox One December: 1376K / 5 = 275,200
Wii U December: 463K / 5 = 92,600

The PS4 and XB1 had amazing deals during December where both were available for at least $299 for 2 weeks and 3 weeks respectively. For those wondering what January might look like after this month, look to the XB1 in 2014/15 section. December was the last month of the "temporary" price cut, and the price did actually go back to $399 for 2 weeks in January. Because of this, the weekly average tanked to a drop of 86%. It is highly likely we will see a similar percentage drop in the January NPD thread. The PS4 might not suffer as big of a drop thanks to it actually receiving an official $50 price drop back in October.
Click to expand...
 
G

GifGafIsTheBestGaf

Member
placeholder post
let the butthurt begin











[3DS] 55K
[PS4] 186K
[WIU] 42K
[XB1] 136K


fake edit: will revise later after (hopefully) retail gaf posts
 
A

Abdiel

Member
Yo!

January.

Fucking Bored to death here, gents and ladies.

I mean, it's good to have breathing room and catch up on reports/paperwork, but the stories empty out. Tax refunds aren't out yet, so people aren't spending anything yet.

Major drop off, as expected, for both systems. PS4 holding steady as the better seller across our districts. Nothing really all that surprising. I don't see anything really going to change too much in terms of the trend for awhile. We'll see with QB.

Division drawing a lot of interest. Bundle, not so much. Fucking seriously, another $399 bundle?

Christ it's like they don't even care.
 
D

DriftingSpirit

Member
Abdiel said:
Yo!

January.

Fucking Bored to death here, gents and ladies.

I mean, it's good to have breathing room and catch up on reports/paperwork, but the stories empty out. Tax refunds aren't out yet, so people aren't spending anything yet.

Major drop off, as expected, for both systems. PS4 holding steady as the better seller across our districts. Nothing really all that surprising. I don't see anything really going to change too much in terms of the trend for awhile. We'll see with QB.

Division drawing a lot of interest. Bundle, not so much. Fucking seriously, another $399 bundle?

Christ it's like they don't even care.
Click to expand...
Consoles are ded again confirmed.

And yeah, I don't know how that Division bundle is going to move much at all.

Thanks!
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
Abdiel said:
Division drawing a lot of interest. Bundle, not so much. Fucking seriously, another $399 bundle?

Christ it's like they don't even care.
Click to expand...

Well they said revenue for XB1 was down YoY in Q3 during their investor call. That is despite selling substantially more units this year. So that tells me that they arent making much if any profit on their lowest priced SKUs which would explain their insistence on creating higher margin bundles.
 
S

Sterok

Member
RexNovis said:
Kinda baffled by these really high 3DS estimates I'm seeing here.
Click to expand...

I don't expect 3DS to be up personally, but it does have Mario & Luigi: Paper Jam and Final Fantasy Explorers releasing this month, which is something and probably more than it got last year.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
donny2112 said:
Would you mind not using the prediction format unless you're posting a prediction? Otherwise, the parser picks it up. Not the end of the world, as I go back over manually looking for things the parser may pick up inadvertently, but if you could just not use the prediction format outside of predictions, it'd help. Thanks!
Click to expand...

Fixed

DriftingSpirit said:
Street Fighter V and Far Cry Primal.

I use this site for tracking software.
Click to expand...

No counting Fire Emblem fates? You monster.
jk
 
C

Conduit

Banned
Abdiel said:
Yo!

January.

Fucking Bored to death here, gents and ladies.

I mean, it's good to have breathing room and catch up on reports/paperwork, but the stories empty out. Tax refunds aren't out yet, so people aren't spending anything yet.

Major drop off, as expected, for both systems. PS4 holding steady as the better seller across our districts. Nothing really all that surprising. I don't see anything really going to change too much in terms of the trend for awhile. We'll see with QB.

Division drawing a lot of interest. Bundle, not so much. Fucking seriously, another $399 bundle?

Christ it's like they don't even care.
Click to expand...

Oh, you're alive! You survived. :D


[3DS] 120K
[PS4] 230K
[WIU] 40K
[XB1] 170K
 
T

ThoughtsOfSpeaking

Banned
Abdiel said:
Yo!

January.

Fucking Bored to death here, gents and ladies.

I mean, it's good to have breathing room and catch up on reports/paperwork, but the stories empty out. Tax refunds aren't out yet, so people aren't spending anything yet.

Major drop off, as expected, for both systems. PS4 holding steady as the better seller across our districts. Nothing really all that surprising. I don't see anything really going to change too much in terms of the trend for awhile. We'll see with QB.

Division drawing a lot of interest. Bundle, not so much. Fucking seriously, another $399 bundle?

Christ it's like they don't even care.
Click to expand...

Any word on Street fighter?
 
T

Trust me. I'm a PhD

Member
Abdiel said:
Yo!

January.

Fucking Bored to death here, gents and ladies.

I mean, it's good to have breathing room and catch up on reports/paperwork, but the stories empty out. Tax refunds aren't out yet, so people aren't spending anything yet.

Major drop off, as expected, for both systems. PS4 holding steady as the better seller across our districts. Nothing really all that surprising. I don't see anything really going to change too much in terms of the trend for awhile. We'll see with QB.

Division drawing a lot of interest. Bundle, not so much. Fucking seriously, another $399 bundle?

Christ it's like they don't even care.
Click to expand...

Appreciated^^ Is it all BO3 bundles now, or are some Star Wars and Uncharted ones still in stock?
 
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