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Japanese Analyst PS5 to sell 200 million

S0ULZB0URNE

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"The Japanese magazine Rakuten posted an article that hypothesized about the amount the console would sell. Bloomberg tech reporter Takashi Mochizuki translated portions of the article, which was written in Japanese, on Twitter. The tweet reads, "Eye-catching report from Japanese analyst (fixed): PS5's lifetime unit sales may exceed 200mln, PS5 price on par with XsX surprise; thought PS5 be $50-$100 higher due to backward compatibility with PS4 and big PS5 titles this is free but in Japanese."
 

bender

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Andodalf

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PS5 bomba confirmed, Xbox One was supposed to hit a billion!

 

BlackTron

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The fact that he thought PS4 BC would increase the price by up to 100 bucks alone shows this guy has no idea what he's talking about.

Maybe he was savvy in gaming when the GBA shipped with GBC hardware inside for BC. That's not how PS5 is doing it, dude.

200 million? Really??? Right now I'm worried PS5 won't nearly match PS4's success.
 
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All headlines are annoying - I wonder if the article contains the probability of that actually happening (the chances would be very small).
 
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Tschumi

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Rakuten is an online marketplace like Amazon, not just any analyst, putting these comments in context a bit more~ second hand PS4 pro consoles here cost more than the price quoted for PS5~
 
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Vawn

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PS5 bomba confirmed, Xbox One was supposed to hit a billion!


There's still time.
 

Clear

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That's a surprising number, for any console. I can only assume that they have high expectations of new markets (like China?) to inflate the size of addressable market to support that number of buyers,
 
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itsjustJEFF

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Oh yea? well sure, it "could" but that's going to require quite a few things to happen. Is he expecting a lot of casual/mobile gamers to come over to console gaming?
 

Azelover

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That would be absolutely amazing.

I think it's possible but it is VERY optimistic. They'd have to achieve enormous market share.
 

//DEVIL//

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Ahahaha . Ps5 won’t crack the 100 million even . Just watch

this fat ps5 is dead in Japan since it’s bigger than most apartments .
After Bathesda and Xbox being more powerful than ps5, I find the ps5 will be having a hard time against MS.
Probably at the end they will win the generation . But not by much if any .
This is coming from a guy who sold his Xbox when MS games started coming to pc .
Don’t look at this years sales numbers or early next year . At the of next year we will have a clear view who is leading
 

ZZZZ

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Yeh, healthily by people who have a lot of skin in the game.

People often underestimate the amount of influence these analysts can have on movements in the market, especially if there's a few of them saying similar things.
I doubt analyst spewing B.S 2 months before release has any effect years down the line, consoles are probably almost sold out everywhere.
 

GHG

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I doubt analyst spewing B.S 2 months before release has any effect years down the line, consoles are probably almost sold out everywhere.

It's not about years down the line, it's little movements in stocks on a daily or weekly basis.
 
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DonF

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hell no with this economy/pandemic

unless there is a fucking miracle and trump doesnt get elected, china plays along and we have a more stable situation.
 

Vawn

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This will age badly.
I'm sure it will sell well, but not that well.

In the same way the thread stating the Series S doesn't exist aged badly. It didn't really age badly, so much as everyone knew it was a stupid prediction from the start.
 

MrS

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Silly numbers that aren't going to happen. Fully expect Xbox to close the gap because the only thing Sony has over them is the great games/sequels coming. Xbox console is better in every other department (i.e. power, BC, upgrade paths/general next gen policy, Dolby Vision, Game Pass, game streaming, deep pockets for acquisition). I'm also dismayed by Sony's over-reliance on remasters and lack of new IP - the recent MGS and Silent PS exclusive rumours are fine but where is the investment in new IP? I want them to take more chances with the creation of new IP.
 
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eventualdecline

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Good prediction PlayStation has done well for SONY we’ve only seen one console crack that range

Actually we’ve seen no consoles crack that range. And it was 2 different consoles that got close to it, the PS2 and Nintendo DS, at around 158 and 154 million units, respectively. Unless you just weren’t counting the DS as a console, or something.
 
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eventualdecline

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Fully expect Xbox to close the gap because the only thing Sony has over them is the great games/sequels coming.

There’s no reason to “fully expect” this going forward, since the Xbox brand’s track record in this department has been abysmal for at least a decade. This would be like a Sony fan “fully expecting” the PS5 to focus on FPS’s, sports, and TV going forward, things that Xbox has hilariously been focusing on for a generation or more. The time to do what you are suggesting here, would have been at the start of last gen, going on the momentum and fanbase they had from the 360. Instead they totally squandered all opportunity to compete with Sony and Nintendo with exclusives, even with MS’s deep pockets and resources. How did they fuck that up? Clearly MS just didn’t care, which is why so many hardcore, traditional gamers hate them so much.

Yes, Xbox can turn things around, but they face a massive uphill battle, and there’s no reason to assume that Sony won’t be bringing the competition-crushing heavy hitters during this same time frame, like they always do. Plus, buying up a metric-ton of developers and franchises all at once is not how anyone else solves this problem, and is a very cheap and artificial way of doing it. Plus, even with Bethesda, etc, Sony will probably STILL have more exclusives. Plus, even with all of the new MS studios, Xbox STILL doesn’t have any exclusives, since everything is on PC. I mean, do Xbox fans even understand some of this stuff?

PS. The PS4 had multiple new, AAA IP’s. Most recently Ghost of Tsushima. Bloodborne. Dreams. Days Gone. Death Stranding. Horizon: Zero Dawn, etc. There’s more. Xbox has nothing of this caliber at this point. I’m sure more new IP’s are coming for PS5 this gen. But you’re right that this is a sore spot for many developers. This is more an issue with AAA third party shitstain publishers like EA, and not so much a Sony problem.
 
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There’s no reason to “fully expect” this going forward, since the Xbox brand’s track record in this department has been abysmal for at least a decade. This would be like a Sony fan “fully expecting” the PS5 to focus on FPS’s, sports, and TV going forward, things that Xbox has hilariously been focusing on for a generation or more. The time to do what you are suggesting here, would have been at the start of last gen, going on the momentum and fanbase they had from the 360. Instead they totally squandered all opportunity to compete with Sony and Nintendo with exclusives, even with MS’s deep pockets and resources. How did they fuck that up? Clearly MS just didn’t care, which is why so many hardcore, traditional gamers hate them so much.

Yes, Xbox can turn things around, but they face a massive uphill battle, and there’s no reason to assume that Sony won’t be bringing the competition-crushing heavy hitters during this same time frame, like they always do. Plus, buying up a metric-ton of developers and franchises all at once is not how anyone else solves this problem, and is a very cheap and artificial way of doing it. Plus, even with Bethesda, etc, Sony will probably STILL have more exclusives. Plus, even with all of the new MS studios, Xbox STILL doesn’t have any exclusives, since everything is on PC. I mean, do Xbox fans even understand some of this stuff?

PS. The PS4 had multiple new, AAA IP’s. Most recently Ghost of Tsushima. Bloodborne. Dreams. Days Gone. Death Stranding. Horizon: Zero Dawn, etc. There’s more. Xbox has nothing of this caliber at this point. I’m sure more new IP’s are coming for PS5 this gen. But you’re right that this is a sore spot for many developers. This is more an issue with AAA third party publishers.
Since you bring up trends, Xbox is due for a rebound.

PS2 150M, Xbox OG 30M
PS3 and Xbox 360 around 85M each
PS4 115M, Xbox 45-50M
PS5 ?, Xbox Series S/X ?
 

-Arcadia-

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Doubt. The 150 million PS2 record is still standing after two generations, and nothing save DS has come close, one of them where Sony ate their competitor.

Still, I would love this. Imagine what kind of game sales this install base could do, and how that would translate to a healthier hobby and more, better, and riskier/unique games for us.
 
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deriks

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Maybe and just maybe the Switch could come the closest to this, and only if they release a better version. It's all about the games. PS5 doesn't have the first year of a PS2, and will not have the same praise either
 

Investor9872

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Jan 4, 2020
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"The Japanese magazine Rakuten posted an article that hypothesized about the amount the console would sell. Bloomberg tech reporter Takashi Mochizuki translated portions of the article, which was written in Japanese, on Twitter. The tweet reads, "Eye-catching report from Japanese analyst (fixed): PS5's lifetime unit sales may exceed 200mln, PS5 price on par with XsX surprise; thought PS5 be $50-$100 higher due to backward compatibility with PS4 and big PS5 titles this is free but in Japanese."

This is the same Japanese guy who predicted that there will be a Nintendo Switch Pro out at the end of the FY, March 31, 2021, right? I was hoping that he's right about the Switch Pro. But it took a DVD player introduced to the masses at an affordable rate for the PS2 to sell 155 million units. The PS5 has a very fast SSD, but I don't think that's enough for it to sell 200 million units. The PS5 will be lucky to catch the PS2 sales numbers.
 

eventualdecline

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Since you bring up trends, Xbox is due for a rebound.

PS2 150M, Xbox OG 30M
PS3 and Xbox 360 around 85M each
PS4 115M, Xbox 45-50M
PS5 ?, Xbox Series S/X ?

While the Xbox may or may not be due for a rebound this gen (with even-numbered Xbox’s being a success, I guess?), there is no real historical pattern to follow here. Even with the Series X potentially gaining ground finally in Japan or some other magic wand scenario, we could still be looking at a situation circa 2028 where the Series X/S is a success and has sold 80-90 million consoles, and the PS5 range of consoles will have sold 130-140 million. Even then, the Xbox brand would still be derided as a failure that needs to throw in the towel. This also brings up the question of how the Series X and S sales numbers will be ultimately counted. It seems a bit misleading to count them all as one.

PS. Don’t forget that technically, Nintendo suffered two underwhelming, near-failure gens in a row, from 1996-2006. There’s certainly historical precedent for a major console manufacturer to fuck up twice in a row. Microsoft isn’t above that.
 
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