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Japanese Analyst PS5 to sell 200 million

Trimesh

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Oh they will be, just not officially lol.

When the PS4 came out some of the gray market game shops in Shenzhen had them even before the US release - only by a few days, but I guess gray market sellers have no reason to care about street dates anyway. Since the official HK release was a month later than the US one, this resulted in several of my friends making a trip to Shenzhen to get the console early.

Hard to say if this will happen again this time - and even it if does COVID has made going between HK and Shenzhen way harder and more complex than it used to be.
 

Kagey K

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Since you bring up trends, Xbox is due for a rebound.

PS2 150M, Xbox OG 30M
PS3 and Xbox 360 around 85M each
PS4 115M, Xbox 45-50M
PS5 ?, Xbox Series S/X ?
I’m going to with PS5 in the 80-90 range and Xbox in the 60-70, with Xbox taking back the US. If I had to hazard a guess at this point in time.
 
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Clear

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Still think, for a forecast like that to be made there has to be something radical making it possible.

I mean, objectively, but entirely hypothetically, say Sony kept its entire install base for the next gen, they'd still need to find 90m completely new buyers to hit that number. That's a bigger jump proportionally than between PS1 and PS2!

You could not make that prediction -even optimistically- without new markets being opened up to facilitate it. Not to mention the total global dominance of the console space as a prerequisite, which is obviously extremely unlikely.

Not saying that this forecast has any credibility, I'm just curious to know how an "analyst" would be prepared to make it in the first place.
 

MarkMe2525

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There’s no reason to “fully expect” this going forward, since the Xbox brand’s track record in this department has been abysmal for at least a decade. This would be like a Sony fan “fully expecting” the PS5 to focus on FPS’s, sports, and TV going forward, things that Xbox has hilariously been focusing on for a generation or more. The time to do what you are suggesting here, would have been at the start of last gen, going on the momentum and fanbase they had from the 360. Instead they totally squandered all opportunity to compete with Sony and Nintendo with exclusives, even with MS’s deep pockets and resources. How did they fuck that up? Clearly MS just didn’t care, which is why so many hardcore, traditional gamers hate them so much.

Yes, Xbox can turn things around, but they face a massive uphill battle, and there’s no reason to assume that Sony won’t be bringing the competition-crushing heavy hitters during this same time frame, like they always do. Plus, buying up a metric-ton of developers and franchises all at once is not how anyone else solves this problem, and is a very cheap and artificial way of doing it. Plus, even with Bethesda, etc, Sony will probably STILL have more exclusives. Plus, even with all of the new MS studios, Xbox STILL doesn’t have any exclusives, since everything is on PC. I mean, do Xbox fans even understand some of this stuff?

PS. The PS4 had multiple new, AAA IP’s. Most recently Ghost of Tsushima. Bloodborne. Dreams. Days Gone. Death Stranding. Horizon: Zero Dawn, etc. There’s more. Xbox has nothing of this caliber at this point. I’m sure more new IP’s are coming for PS5 this gen. But you’re right that this is a sore spot for many developers. This is more an issue with AAA third party shitstain publishers like EA, and not so much a Sony problem.
Remember, no matter what. What uncle Phil did to you doesn't define you. Now go to bed. It's getting late and it's past your bedtime.
 
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Quazar77

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I can only see a single scenario where this happens : XBXs has a 100% system failure in every console they ever built (not 99% but really 100% ‘’all’’ of them), all the xbox wearhouses catch on incontrollable fire, Phil Specter turns out to be like the character of Patrick Swayze in Donnie Darko, someone steals a yatch, sony buys nintendo, sega, rockstar, activision, thatgameconpany, EA, square, blizzard, McDonald’s and stadia just fucking gives up while no one notices

The. Only. Scenario.
 
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Kagey K

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I can only see a single scenario where this happens : XBXs has a 100% system failure in every console they ever built (not 99% but really 100% ‘’all’’ of them), all the xbox wearhouses catch on incontrollable fire, Phil Specter turns out to be like the character of Patrick Swayze in Donnie Darko, someone steals a yatch, sony buys nintendo, sega, rockstar, activision, thatgameconpany, EA, square, blizzard, McDonald’s and stadia just fucking gives up while no one notices

The. Only. Scenario.
Even then that might not be enough. Still need another 20 mil from somewhere.
 

Barakov

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That's........optimistic. 100 million I could see but 200 million is kinda out there. I think even the PS2 only sold something like 155 million so the PS5 selling 200 million is very much in tales from my ass territory.
 
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is it the same article like last week? funny how no one has read it still....
"analyst" makes some great suppositions, like ps5 becoming the de facto machine used for e-sport events and athletes (since it is as powerful as PC, but cheaper), and also supposes that all ps2 owners of that era that somehow are not into playstation now, will get back to sony with ps5
 

NullZ3r0

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Product with stronger competition to sell more units than predecessor with weaker competition. Makes sense.
 
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FireFistAce

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200 million copies of games maybe
Given that the PS4 has sold 1B copies of games, I think 200M copies of games is not a maybe.

Also, I think it is possible if the PS5 has 10 years before the PS6 is released and becomes cheap enough. But that’s not going to happen.
 

SlimySnake

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lol it would be lucky to hit 100 million. xbox isnt fucking around this gen, and sony has been fucking up left and right.

MS doesnt have any good exclusives coming out in the next few years though so 100 million might be possible if sony's exclusives are well received. especially if they look way better than their ps4 versions.

MS needs to start showing off starfield, elder scrolls and whatever else these studios are working on because while this is a marathon, MS has shown fuck all so far.
 

eventualdecline

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Remember, no matter what. What uncle Phil did to you doesn't define you. Now go to bed. It's getting late and it's past your bedtime.

Did I strike a nerve? You may be somewhat confused by how this “internets” thing works. The way it works is I say something, and the person responding to it has to determine if what I said is accurate or not and makes sense. The way it doesn’t work, is I say something, and then I check to see if what I said makes Xbox owners feel uncomfortable or not. What, if anything, did I say that’s inaccurate? Let’s look at the facts here:

1. Xbox has a MAJOR uphill battle this gen when it comes to exclusives and building up a reputation as more than a “Shooterbox” and “that system you get because it does Madden and the shoot game” and “yo did you hear Xbox got sports”? I mean, the 360 already had this abysmal reputation, and the 360 actually had some exclusives worth a damn. Since then, the Xbox brand has only sunk further into the toilet. They have MAJOR work to do to even begin to compare to Sony and Nintendo when it comes to single player, AAA experiences, and frankly, it will probably be a train wreck watching them try. It’s certainly possible, but I’m not sure such a disingenuous, non-gamer friendly corp like MS, with historically zero creativity game development-wise, will pull it off.

2. Buying large swathes of failing and AA developers, with maybe one decent one in the mix, ID, is not how a good reputation for exclusives make. That is literally not how you do it. That’s not how Nintendo and Sony built their reputation, or virtually anyone else. MS will get mocked for years for tying to buy their way into prominence. And what assurance do we have that they won’t pull another Rare? The Zenimax move was out of desperation because they knew they were completely fucked when it comes to games, and Madden and Call of Duty and Gears weren’t going to cut it anymore. They have a lot of catching up to do, and desperation does not = success.

3. Saying that you “fully expect” MS to compete neck-to-neck with Sony this gen software wise, when MS totally shit the bed in this department for the entire past gen, is wishful, unrealistic thinking, at best. You guys have to be more reasonable in your predictions. What’s next, are people going to claim that single player EA games have a shot at toppling Nintendo’s AAA first party titles? That’s what this sounds like to me, and its silly and unrealistic.
 
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MarkMe2525

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Did I strike a nerve? You may be somewhat confused by how this “internets” thing works. The way it works is I say something, and the person responding to it has to determine if what I said is accurate or not and makes sense. The way it doesn’t work, is I say something, and then I check to see if what I said makes Xbox owners feel uncomfortable or not. What, if anything, did I say that’s inaccurate? Let’s look at the facts here:

1. Xbox has a MAJOR uphill battle this gen when it comes to exclusives and building up a reputation as more than a “Shooterbox” and “that system you get because it does Madden and the shoot game” and “yo did you hear Xbox got sports”? I mean, the 360 already had this abysmal reputation, and the 360 actually had some exclusives worth a damn. Since then, the Xbox brand has only sunk further into the toilet. They have MAJOR work to do to even begin to compare to Sony and Nintendo when it comes to single player, AAA experiences, and frankly, it will probably be a train wreck watching them try. It’s certainly possible, but I’m not sure such a disingenuous, non-gamer friendly corp like MS, with historically, with zero creativity when it comes to game development, will pull it off.

2. Buying large swathes of failing and AA developers, with maybe one decent one in the mix, ID, is not how a good reputation for exclusives make. That is literally not how you do it. That’s not how Nintendo and Sony built their reputation, or virtually anyone else. MS will get mocked for years for tying to buy their way into prominence. And what assurance do we have that they won’t pull another Rare? The Zenimax move was out of desperation because they knew they were completely fucked when it comes to games, and Madden and Call of Duty and Gears weren’t going to cut it anymore. They have a lot of catching up to do, and desperation does not = success.

3. Saying that you “fully expect” MS to compete neck-to-neck with Sony this gen software wise, when MS totally shit the bed in this department for the entire past gen, is wishful, unrealistic thinking, at best. You guys have to be more reasonable in your predictions. What’s next, are people going to claim that single player EA games have a shot at toppling Nintendo’s AAA first party titles? That’s what this sounds like to me, and its silly and unrealistic.
No, but looks like I did lol 😁
(totally expecting another wall of text I won't read)
 

DynamiteCop!

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PS5 bomba confirmed, Xbox One was supposed to hit a billion!

That's not at all what's being said or even implied, you need to actually read the article.
 

Clarissa

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My friend who is a Nintendo fanboy who hates Sony is laughing his ass off at this noob fuck who wrote this article.
 

HoodWinked

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this is a terrible estimation, for sales to balloon to that degree there needs to be massive price reduction or a vacuum in the market or blue ocean strategy. so that's a no, no, and no and xbox is far more competitive this generation than last generation's disaster of a launch.
 

eventualdecline

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No, but looks like I did lol 😁
(totally expecting another wall of text I won't read)

Another post you won’t read? Interesting. This is quite the paradox here, brotha. In order for this last post of yours to even begin to have made sense, you would have to be admitting that you didn’t read (or understand) at least the previous post, and possibly the one before that as well. And in order for that scenario to be true, then that means your previous two posts literally make no sense, and you are acknowledging this fact and you are asking the forum to disregard your last two abortions of a post. Is that what you’re saying? Because in light of recent statements you have made here, there are literally no other options.

How else could any reasonable person interpret what transpired here?
 
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MarkMe2525

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Another post you won’t read? Interesting. This is quite the paradox here, brotha. In order for this last post of yours to even begin to have made sense, you would have to be admitting that you didn’t read at least the previous post, and possibly the one before that as well. And in order for that scenario to be true, then that means your previous two posts literally make no sense, and you are acknowledging this fact and you are asking the forum to disregard your last two abortions of a post. Is that what you’re saying? Because in light of recent statements you have made here, there are literally no other options.

How else could any reasonable person interpret what transpired here?
👍 I'm sure you apologized. I forgive you.
 
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Andodalf

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That's not at all what's being said or even implied, you need to actually read the article.


“We think you can go broader than a game console, that’s our aim, and you can go from 400 million to potentially upwards of a billion units. That’s how we’re thinking of the Xbox opportunity as we go forward.”

He’s speaking about the entire console market, not just Xbox, but a upwards of a billion is still crazy
 

Flying Toaster

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Kinda dumb numbers but if Sony wanted to not practice half generations like they did this gen I could see higher numbers if they stuck to a decade.

We all know that won't happen.
 

Reallink

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LOL PS5 won't even outsell PS4. It's $500, has the size/aesthetic of an alien refrigerator, and the lowest WAF of any consumer electronic in history. MS is an infinitely more viable competitor with a seemingly endless budget to acquire developers and fuel Gamepass. I wouldn't be surprised if PS5 does worse than PS3. The issue is not winning over people who actively follow videogames, it's securing the wider demographic that takes a console past 30-50 million units.
 
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argam

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LOL PS5 won't even outsell PS4. It's $500, has the size/aesthetic of an alien refrigerator, and the lowest WAF of any consumer electronic in history. MS is an infinitely more viable competitor with a seemingly endless budget to acquire developers and fuel Gamepass. I wouldn't be surprised if PS5 does worse than PS3. The issue is not winning over people who actively follow videogames, it's securing the wider demographic that takes a console past 30-50 million units.

I don't know about your environment but around me I cannot find a ps4 owner that is not very likely going to buy a ps5... Do the math
 

magnumpy

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I don't know about you but I personally plan to buy at least a ps5 for every room of my house including the attic and the basement and the treehouse and the pool <3

who's with me? if we follow this plan I predict at least 500 million-1 billion ps5 sales <3
 

supernova8

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Even when Microsoft fucked it up PS4 only managed to scrape 110-120m. Doesn't look like Microsoft will fuck it up this time. Sony will probably win but it'll be closer than last gen.
There's no Kinect forced bundle or always-online fiasco, the whole cross-gen thing has been exposed as something Sony is also doing anyway so things look good for Xbox right now.

Where the hell is the analyst getting the other 80-90m units?
 
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Kagey K

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I don't know about your environment but around me I cannot find a ps4 owner that is not very likely going to buy a ps5... Do the math
So that’s 5, where do the other 199 million 995 hundred thousand and 995 come from?

Do the math.
 

Komatsu

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Rakuten is a respectable rag but I don’t think the console market is getting any larger. I doubt, with streaming and mobile gaming growing fast, that the PS2’s record of 155 million units sold will ever be beaten or surpassed. Would love to be wrong, though.
 

Kagey K

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Not going to happen. This analyst is just throwing numbers around
I’m pretty sure anyone who can think knows they are going to have a hard time hitting half that this gen.

Obviously somebody wanted clicks and attention, and they got that.
 

ExKing

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Not a single chance LOL.

Let see if it can reach 100M this gen as the competition is much stronger than in 2013 ( I mean Wii U and Xbox One ).
 

Kagey K

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Not a single chance LOL.

Let see if it can reach 100M this gen as the competition is much stronger than in 2013 ( I mean Wii U and Xbox One ).
I’m not sure they reach that. 90 is my top end for them and that’s only if they release a ton of special editions and possibly a mid gen refresh.
 

jakinov

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With all the cloud streaming services, mobile, Xbox trying again, Nintendo being so appealing and the rise/wide-adoption of PC gaming, higher cost to entry, I don't even know if it will sell as well as the PS5 in the same amount of time.
 

MagnesG

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I think the Gamepass would only facilitate the console sales more, but we'll see.
 

yurinka

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Since you bring up trends, Xbox is due for a rebound.

PS2 150M, Xbox OG 30M
PS3 and Xbox 360 around 85M each
PS4 115M, Xbox 45-50M
PS5 ?, Xbox Series S/X ?
Aligning launches PS4 is performing slightly better than PS2. But PS4 still is $300, Sony said will continue supporting PS4 for years, PS5 will have full BC so many 3rd party / indie games will continue to be releasing on PS4 too, then there's PS Plus and PS Now on PS4 in addition to Netflix and so on to provide extra content these years to PS4 users...

I think it's pretty likely that PS4 will end selling 150M or close, or even slightly outsell PS2 and become the best selling home console ever and end close to 160M.

Looking at production numbers, preorder selling out in minutes everywhere, exclusive and multi line-up for the first year and how PS5 performed in social media with gaming history records, PS5 seems to be on track to outsell PS4 at least in first weekend, first month, first FY (~4 months) and first year sales. So who knows if it may end outselling total life cycle PS4 numbers. MS is more focused on selling subscriptions than consoles so I think they will offer less competition in consoles than with XB1. Let's also assume console market continues growing as it growed every year since some decades ago.

Remember that PS5 may have the first year 1 AAA exclusive lineup we ever saw with Miles Morales, Demon's Souls, Sackboy, Godfall, Ratchet & Clank, Returnal, Horizon 2, God of War 2 or maybe even Gran Turismo 7 (not counting here timed exclusives from Zenimax or popular indies and who knows if even FFXVI), while Xbox only has Halo Infinite for the first year.

There's also going to be up to 150M PS4 users who are more likely to want keeing their library when going next gen, so BC may favor them to go PS5 to keep their library of games, specially the PS+ library they may have grow over years, and would lose if stop paying the subscription.

Let's say that being optimistic PS5 may sell up to 170M. I personally think 200M is too much.

With all the cloud streaming services, mobile, Xbox trying again, Nintendo being so appealing and the rise/wide-adoption of PC gaming, higher cost to entry, I don't even know if it will sell as well as the PS5 in the same amount of time.
Nintendo it's on the peak year of Switch lifecyle, starting next fiscal year will start to go down. Same year that some AAA multi games will start to be next gen only so decent Switch ports will be too difficult.

When mobile market grew a lot didn't negatively affect home console markets, only the portables. During the recent years PC, consoles and mobile markets grew, only that mobile grew faster. All 3 markets are expected to continue growing. So mobile growth won't affect consoles.

Regarding cloud streaming services, PS Now is the market leader and we know they are working on next gen updates. The other services as of now were just promises (xCloud, Luna) or failures (Stadia, Nvidia). I think MS will perform slightly better with Series X than with XBO but in the long term, during its first year will have a decent launch but PS5 will outsell it with a big margin during the first year, because MS will be focusing more on Game Pass than in Xbox.
 
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Kagey K

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Aligning launches PS4 is performing slightly better than PS2. But PS4 still is $300, Sony said will continue supporting PS4 for years, PS5 will have full BC so many 3rd party / indie games will continue to be releasing on PS4 too, then there's PS Plus and PS Now on PS4 in addition to Netflix and so on to provide extra content these years to PS4 users...

I think it's pretty likely that PS4 will end selling 150M or close, or even slightly outsell PS2 and become the best selling home console ever and end close to 160M.

Looking at production numbers, preorder selling out in minutes everywhere, exclusive and multi line-up for the first year and how PS5 performed in social media with gaming history records, PS5 seems to be on track to outsell PS4 at least in first weekend, first month, first FY (~4 months) and first year sales. So who knows if it may end outselling total life cycle PS4 numbers. MS is more focused on selling subscriptions than consoles so I think they will offer less competition in consoles than with XB1. Let's also assume console market continues growing as it growed every year since some decades ago.

Let's say that being optimistic PS5 may sell up to 170M. I personally think 200M is too much.
PS5 isn’t hitting 100m,

This growth you suggest is a pipe dream at best. 170 m for PS4 has it basically for free for everyone at some point, it’s just not going to happen.
 
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MagnesG

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Nintendo it's on the peak year of Switch lifecyle, starting next fiscal year will start to go down. Same year that some AAA multi games will start to be next gen only so decent Switch ports will be too difficult.

When mobile market grew a lot didn't negatively affect home console markets, only the portables. During the recent years PC, consoles and mobile markets grew, only that mobile grew faster. All 3 markets are expected to continue growing. So mobile growth won't affect consoles.

Regarding cloud streaming services, PS Now is the market leader and we know they are working on next gen updates. The other services as of now were just promises (xCloud, Luna) or failures (Stadia, Nvidia).
Bullshit.
 

yurinka

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PS5 isn’t hitting 100m,

This growth you suggest is a pipe dream at best. 170 m for PS4 has it basically for free for everyone at some point, it’s just not going to happen.
Bullshit.

Right now there is zero reasons to think PS5 will sell 50% less than PS4. Console market will continue growing as it grown during the last decades, and as I mentioned everything is in line for PS5 to outsell PS4 during the first year.

I forgot to mention that PS5 will have the stronges 1st year lineup of AAA exclusives ever, while its direct competition will only have Halo Infinite and previous gen games on their subscription service (EA Play games are like a year old, first two Zenimax next gen games will be PS5 timed console exclusives) during the first year plus some indies, so I think it will give an edge in PS5 vs Xbox sales during first year.

Just added it to the post.
 
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Kagey K

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Right now there is zero reasons to think PS5 will sell 50% less than PS4. Console market will continue growing as it grown during the last decades, and as I mentioned everything is in line for PS5 to outsell PS4 during the first year.
They have stronger competitors and continue to bumble messaging left and right.

The reason they got the lead they did last gen was because they were on point when thier competitors were fucking it all up.

Stormger competitors with better messaging, means PS5 might get some strong day 1 sales, but the tail isn’t going to be what you think it is.
 
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jigglet

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If it wasn't for that SSD, I would have laughed. But with the power of the SSD I don't see why it couldn't be as high as 500 million.
 
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dvdvideo

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Both are going to sell 60-75 million, the rest of the market will go to cloud gaming, pc, oculus quest, switch portable and switch 4k. And thats assuming Amazon, Google, or Apple decide to release a real console.
 
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yurinka

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They have stronger competitors and continue to bumble messaging left and right.
They don't have stronger competitors, the only Series X launch game is an indie game with a hawk. The only Series X AAA exclusive during a year or almost two is going to be Halo. PS5 is going to have a way stronger catalog on exclusives during at least the first couple of years.

The real competition will start on late 2022 or 2023, once MS starts releasing their big games. It may be too late.

Both are going to sell 60-75 million, the rest of the market will go to cloud gaming, pc, oculus quest, switch portable and switch 4k. And thats assuming Amazon, Google, or Apple decide to release a real console.
Apple already released 2 consoles: Pippin and Apple TV. Let's say they didn't perform very well. They are happy selling iOS devices and just collecting 30% of its games that other companies make. Switch 4k and Switch portable as of now are fanboy dreams. Oculus Quest has difficulties to compete against PSVR, so won't be able to compete with PS4 or PS5.

The PC market has been growing for years, and that didn't stop consoles and specially PS, growth. Specially because PC market is more focused on F2P games while consoles are more focused on paid games.

If it wasn't for that SSD, I would have laughed. But with the power of the SSD I don't see why it couldn't be as high as 500 million.
There are several PS5 selling points people still have to see or realize. One of them is PS5 loading times being smaller than 1 or 2 seconds. It will make a difference for many people.
 
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Kagey K

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They don't have stronger competitors, the only Series X launch game is an indie game with a hawk. The only Series X AAA exclusive during a year or almost two is going to be Halo.
This is factually wrong, but shows how uneducated people actually are.

If you are going to pretend to be a gamer, at least have facts.
 
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