• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Jeff Grub: Sony acquiring Square Enix was the big rumor about the next potential Sony acquisition

skit_data

Member
Crystal Dynamics being called the less useful wing is heart breaking.
I wrote ”from a Sony perspective”. Sony already has several 1st party studios making western third person action adventure games. They have less studios making JRPGs etc.
What's the point? I can't imagine they change their distribution. Sony already gets all their games (except for those AA games they release on switch). And those games as well as dq will continue to release on switch. So what's the point?
Well, outside of strengthening their japanese output it could be getting a foothold in mobile gaming similar to what MS will be getting with King. I listened to the Gamesindustry.biz podcast yesterday and apparently Square Enix makes a lot of their money from mobile gaming, if I understood it correctly.

Edit: Might be worth pointing out that I think they would remain multiplatform. Some games that previously were exclusives (Final Fantasy) could go multiplat instead of being timed/full exclusives.
 
Last edited:

Furball

Member
Some of those niche Ips didnt even come to PS for some reason (funded by Nintendo maybe)? such as Octopath traveler, Bravely default, and Triangle Strategy.

Other than Dragon Quest, I dont see any relevant losses for SE if they were bought by Sony. Dragon quest might not be exclusive but the other huge selling games skip Nintendo consoles anyways.

Those Niche IP has Nintendo exclusive deal so they dont come to Sony . Some of them come to Xbox because Xbox allow some of their game like Ori to come to Nintendo so they are likely exchange .

Technically SE used to make much more exclusive for Nitnendo than Sony during PS3 era . All of those NDS, GBA ,3DS game and they sell quite alot while cheaper to produce than PS one . They may not relevant lost but 1- 2 mil sell each niche title like that with cheaper product cost and fanbase still a lost . They also lose a system to fall back incase Sony bomb like PS3 era
 

yazenov

Member
Those Niche IP has Nintendo exclusive deal so they dont come to Sony . Some of them come to Xbox because Xbox allow some of their game like Ori to come to Nintendo so they are likely exchange .

Technically SE used to make much more exclusive for Nitnendo than Sony during PS3 era . All of those NDS, GBA ,3DS game and they sell quite alot while cheaper to produce than PS one . They may not relevant lost but 1- 2 mil sell each niche title like that with cheaper product cost and fanbase still a lost . They also lose a system to fall back incase Sony bomb like PS3 era

For all we know, it could be a similar deal to Bungie where they are allowed creative freedom and continue to release games to multiple platform unrestricted, depending on the game.

As for your second point in case PS5 does not take off (highly unlikely given the insane demand of the console), PC is the safety net and I'm sure Sony will allow games release on that platform given that they have already released several exclusives on PC and it does not directly competes with Sony's console.

Those loses from niche titles if they aren't released on Nintendo consoles could easily be offset by releasing those type of games day 1 on PS5, PC, and mobile.
 
Last edited:

Ryu Kaiba

Member
Doubtful.
If Sony wanted to buy Square Enix they'd want the Eidos part too.
Not only for Tomb Raider and other IP's
But I assume the Marvel license goes with the studio's?
Unless they was a game deal.
But still why wouldn't Sony want Final Fantasy & Tomb Raider which are Two of the biggest OG Playstation IP's under their umbrella.
Those IP's aren't as valuable as people pretend they are, their games barely sell and the studios are Mid. Makes complete sense to me that Sony wouldn't want them.
 

Bo_Hazem

Banned
Because if they did they already do that with their own IP Like Wild Arm , Legend of Dragoon . Why funding another of those Niche title ?

Having it in both PS5 and Nintendo, and obviously the PS5 one being the superior one, it also could support PS4 for extended time with such releases.
 
Last edited:

MonarchJT

Banned
”from a Sony perspective” it might be. Avengers wasn’t the success they hoped for even with the Spidey pull, MS has a multi year contract job for Perfect Dark, PS fans were hating on Rise of the Tomb Raider when it wasn’t on PS at launch and I doubt the late port sold well on PS4, Shadow had some traction as well. The numbers might actually show it’s not an important studio.

But I agree, CD are great and for me Tomb Raider were the most important IP Square Enix owned. I’m just glad TR didn’t get stuck on PS, best news all year after all the speculations that Sony would swallow it all. I’m not all that excited for their Perfect Dark work as of now, just not a fan of first person shooters. But I can’t wait to see what CD can do with Tomb Raider on UE5, lead platform should be PC this time.
but still was technically SE best devs
 
Last edited:

SLB1904

Banned
I wonder when both Microsoft and Sony will be like
"Alright thats enough acquisitions"
At this stage these acquisition thing will go on for another 3 years
 

yurinka

Member
Sony sold their Square Enix shares years ago, and i really doubt Microsoft or Nintendo would try to buy them(ok i guess Microsoft is a wild card, but Nintendo would never ever want to manage Square). i don't see anything drastically changing their relationship tbh, only reason i see Sony buying Square is because Microsoft is planning to buy them first, but most likely Square will remain independent for many years (GAF can ban me if they are bought this year 🤭)
If we look at that top share holders of both Sony and Square, we see that there are many who are top shareholders of both companies: The Master Trust Bank of Japan, Custody Bank of Japan, JPMorgan Chase Bank or Ssbtc Client Omnibus Account.

https://www.hd.square-enix.com/eng/ir/stock/shareholder.html
https://www.sony.com/en/SonyInfo/IR/stock/information.html

If Sony buys Square it means they would earn a lot of money without needing to anything and they would continue being shareholders.

I assume all these common shareholders who own at least 32.59% of SE and 24.3% of Sony (only looking at their top 10 shareholders, they may have a higher % adding secondary accounts) would greenlight the transaction.

They could go in the Bungie way to allow them to continue publishing day one multiplatform games in other consoles and PC to don't reduce their revenue while securing their content for consoles and game subs plus securing marketing, game subs, demo/betas and game+console bundles. They would continue having timed exclusives for Sony and future Switch exclusives now would be PS+Switch exclusives. They would support Square with GaaS, IA, Cloud and bringing their IPs to movies, tv shows, anime and so on.
 
Last edited:

yurinka

Member
Well, outside of strengthening their japanese output it could be getting a foothold in mobile gaming similar to what MS will be getting with King. I listened to the Gamesindustry.biz podcast yesterday and apparently Square Enix makes a lot of their money from mobile gaming, if I understood it correctly.
Notice Sony and Square position in the top grossing mobile publishers rankings for the past couple of years. To acquire Bandai Namco or Square Enix (even maybe Konami) would highly help Sony in tthis area:

FR8znBwXMAIjsvO

FR8zphKXMAUEolK
 
Last edited:
Doubtful.
If Sony wanted to buy Square Enix they'd want the Eidos part too.
Not only for Tomb Raider and other IP's
But I assume the Marvel license goes with the studio's?
Unless they was a game deal.
But still why wouldn't Sony want Final Fantasy & Tomb Raider which are Two of the biggest OG Playstation IP's under their umbrella.
The IPs that were sold off reportedly didn’t make much profit, all landing at about break even. If that’s true then it makes sense to sell those pieces off to make the company a more attractive acquisition.
 

reksveks

Member
The IPs that were sold off reportedly didn’t make much profit, all landing at about break even. If that’s true then it makes sense to sell those pieces off to make the company a more attractive acquisition.
Holding IP doesn't cost you anything though, studios do.

It's possible that no one wanted the studio's without the IP.
 
Greg Miller has close ties with Sony so I wouldn’t be surprised if he knows something.


Yea, Shuhei Yoshida is going to directly leak to him something that if it was true Sony wouldn't want it to get out.

Just like all the big deals so far, if this was true, it wouldn't leak. Even if it turns out to be true they are probably just guessing based on SE selling the other studios.

People can have sources inside a studio or something like that but there is no way anyone has a source that is involved in big deals like something like buying a publisher.
 
Last edited:

bitbydeath

Member
Yea, Shuhei Yoshida is going to directly leak to him something that if it was true Sony wouldn't want it to get out.

Just like all the big deals so far, if this was true, it wouldn't leak. Even if it turns out to be true they are probably just guessing based on SE selling the other studios.

People can have sources inside a studio or something like that but there is no way anyone has a source that is involved in big deals like something like buying a publisher.
Maybe not Shu directly but it shows he has legit contacts.
 

Camreezie

Member
Full of shit, only giving specifics now because the embrace acquisition happened. Before he wouldnt tie down any firm details in fear of being wrong like usual
 

adamsapple

Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
Yep, this.
I also find it odd he’s saying anything at all.

He needs hot goss to get people to listen to his show.

Not saying it's not possible this is true, as there's multiple 'insiders' saying the same thing, but the first and foremost point is to get people subscriber to their videos/channels.
 
He needs hot goss to get people to listen to his show.

Not saying it's not possible this is true, as there's multiple 'insiders' saying the same thing, but the first and foremost point is to get people subscriber to their videos/channels.

I guess that’s a reason for them to leak what they have. We did have insiders leak stuff correctly before and we had others that made it up. Both are definitely possible with Greg but I don’t believe he would fabricate things.
 
Last edited:

AmuroChan

Member
He needs hot goss to get people to listen to his show.

Not saying it's not possible this is true, as there's multiple 'insiders' saying the same thing, but the first and foremost point is to get people subscriber to their videos/channels.

This. KF is in desperate need for subs and views. Also, he's in a win-win situation. If he's right, he can take credit and reaffirm his insider status. If he's wrong, he'll just blame his sources.
 
Leakers and Insiders don't know shit about acquisitions. That's restricted confidential info that is only discussed at the top levels of the business.

The lower-level employees that might even remotely leak anything are the same that find out about acquisition and merger deals when the rest of us do.
 
Leakers and Insiders don't know shit about acquisitions. That's restricted confidential info that is only discussed at the top levels of the business.

The lower-level employees that might even remotely leak anything are the same that find out about acquisition and merger deals when the rest of us do.

The Bungie deal really came out of nowhere. And it was something that was being talked internally for a very long time. Shows how tight Sony is when it comes to leaks.

I don’t believe every insider makes up information. Some of them have been correct in the past. But so far when it comes to Sony the acquisitions have been pretty secure. Not even Jason is leaking them and he’s a very reputable source.
 
Last edited:

yurinka

Member
The Bungie deal really came out of nowhere. And it was something that was being talked internally for a very long time. Shows how tight Sony is when it comes to leaks.

I don’t believe every insider makes up information. Some of them have been correct in the past. But so far when it comes to Sony the acquisitions have been pretty secure. Not even Jason is leaking them and he’s a very reputable source.
In fact, did someone leak the Insomniac, Housemarque, Firesprite, Nixxes, Fabrik, Bluepoint and Valkyrie acquisitions? I don't think so.

I think these 'leakers' or 'insiders' or their 'sources' (meaning maybe some uninformed random dev or random tweets, reddit posts or 4chan from annonymous people) only make personal guesses and fail most of them but from time to time they get it something right.

We recently saw a couple of examples: they thought Sony was going to buy Square Enix. Looking it from outside, if Sony wants to buy some publisher Square Enix would be a great fit and would make a lot of sense. So as a guess from a random fan with no insider info is a fair prediction or guess. But the reality is that SE sold their most valuable western teams and IPs to someone else who isn't Sony.

Sony could still buy the remaining SE part? Sure, but they didn't get it right.

Those IP's aren't as valuable as people pretend they are, their games barely sell and the studios are Mid. Makes complete sense to me that Sony wouldn't want them.
Tomb Raider is one of the best selling IPs ever, sold over 88 million copies. And its recent trilogy sold 38 million of them, an average of over a dozen million copies. Only a few IPs sell around over dozen million copies per game. It's also popular beyond gaming and has successful movies.

Maybe Sony didn't want it because could be too similar to Uncarted (specially now that Sony seems to be getting rid of all their white male protagonists), or because combining their existing IPs and the unannounced new IPs they may consider that have more than covered that genre with their 1st party teams.
 
Last edited:
In fact, did someone leak the Insomniac, Housemarque, Firesprite, Nixxes, Fabrik, Bluepoint and Valkyrie acquisitions? I don't think so.

I think these 'leakers' or 'insiders' or their 'sources' (meaning maybe some uninformed random dev or random tweets, reddit posts or 4chan from annonymous people) only make personal guesses and fail most of them but from time to time they get it something right.

We recently saw a couple of examples: they thought Sony was going to buy Square Enix. Looking it from outside, if Sony wants to buy some publisher Square Enix would be a great fit and would make a lot of sense. So as a guess from a random fan with no insider info is a fair prediction or guess. But the reality is that SE sold their most valuable western teams and IPs to someone else who isn't Sony.

Sony could still buy the remaining SE part? Sure, but they didn't get it right.

I think Bluepoint was speculated for a really long time but nobody claimed to know it would happen. As for Insomniac I saw some speculation over Microsoft buying them but nobody leaked Sony buying the dev.

Looking at all the acquisitions it was Sony themselves that leaked Bluepoint getting bought.
 

Thirty7ven

Banned
Sony ain’t acquiring a publisher in the gaming space, because they won’t clear the funds for it and it’s that simple. The talking suits over there have nightmares about Sony potentially being seen as a videogame company.
 

yurinka

Member
I think Bluepoint was speculated for a really long time but nobody claimed to know it would happen. As for Insomniac I saw some speculation over Microsoft buying them but nobody leaked Sony buying the dev.

Looking at all the acquisitions it was Sony themselves that leaked Bluepoint getting bought.
Yep, on top of that -previous to Sony's accidental leak- Bluepoint was another of those safe bets for fan predictions. It's like betting that Sony would buy Kojipro or FromSoft/Kadokawa. Or even Capcom or Square.

When people speculates who should or would buy Sony, these names always appear/appeared in most predictions.

Notice also that these fake 'leaks' from 'insiders' are always with some of these safe bets. They aren't for less expected things where Sony said they want to expand like with a porting team because they want to port more games to PC (Nixxes), an Asian mobile game studio (Lassengle), a -mostly- VR team (Firesprite+Fabrik).

Fake leaks are mostly related to flashy safe bets.

Sony ain’t acquiring a publisher in the gaming space, because they won’t clear the funds for it and it’s that simple. The talking suits over there have nightmares about Sony potentially being seen as a videogame company.
What do you mean? Jimbo said they want to expand to try to reach all these billions of gamers that are outside PS, so pretty likely won't stop at PC ports, mobile games and cloud gaming but also following the path they created with Bungie: to buy a publisher and put it under SIE but not under PS Studios, in order to get money from other consoles without porting there their PS Studios IPs.

Sony also wants to bring PS IPs to movies, tvs shows and anime, and would welcome more popular content for PS+. And well, MS and Tencent are buying stuff so would be a good idea if Sony would secure certain key leaders of genres not covered by their 1st+2nd party games.

So it would be a good idea from Sony's side to acquire some publishers. Particularly Square (JRPG, MMORPG) or Capcom (survival horror, fighting + related eSports, MH). Sony would become leaders in these genres and wouldn't depend on 3rd parties for them, would grow in the other consoles, PC, mobile, Asia, eSports, movie/tv show/anime friendly IPs, etc. On top of that, these publishers would increase SIE and Sony revenue and profits.

I think their acquisitions would highly benefit them, I don't see why Sony management or shareholders (who btw all three share almost the same external top shareholders, which makes the acquisition easier, safer and more productive for the shareholders) would stop it or think it's a bad idea. I think that if these acquisitions don't happen is because SE an Capcom owners don't want to sell and prefer to continue as an independent company.
 
Last edited:

Dolodolo

Member
They could go in the Bungie way to allow them to continue publishing day one multiplatform games in other consoles and PC

Yes. Surely damn Sony will leave multi-platform games that LITERALLY made their temporary exclusives. This kind of logic sometimes amazes me.
 

yurinka

Member
Yes. Surely damn Sony will leave multi-platform games that LITERALLY made their temporary exclusives. This kind of logic sometimes amazes me.
Some of these full multiplatform games could be temporal console exclusives, and a few exceptions could even be total exclusives. It's perfectly possible.

In fact, if I was Sony in addition to buy SE and Capcom I'd increase the amount of temporal exclusives for Sony, I'd block any exclusive for MS and Switch (all their future console games would be released day one on PS) and Sony would get exclusivity for all their games regarding game subs, demos/betas, marketing and game+console bundles.
 
I think if we make the assumption that Sony is in talks to buy Square Enix, this decision would have needed to be made on the basis of reducing Square Enix's debt making them a more appetizing purchase for Sony's shareholders.

So the decision to eliminate the Western Studios from the portfolio along with their IP is a big one.

It means that Sony Pictures didn't value having a competing movie franchise with Tomb Raider, and it means that Sony didn't even want Crystal Dynamics taking over Uncharted for Naughty Dog, something maybe they'd rather have Bend Studios do if it came down to it.

I also wonder if it complicated things with their relationship with Marvel. i.e. does Sony now own the "failures" of Avengers and GotG? Are those failures now related to Spider-Man by association? And by that same regard Wolverine? I wonder who owns the licensing agreements and what that would have done for Sony in terms of their own deals. I mean there is probably a reason why Sony didn't get the Avengers and GotG licenses to begin with despite the success of Spider-Man.

This is where the 300 million comes in. What makes more sense for Sony, taking on 300 million less of debt or trying to fit these studios into your portfolio and these IP into your portfolio and paying the extreme costs of maintaining these studios and their projects and the licenses for them?

These studios are dead in the water and we all kind of know it at this point. And they really didn't have any value to Sony

Shadow of the Tomb Raider was really poorly received. And if Sony wants to continue Uncharted with Drake's daughter, they could do so for free. Even Rise sold on 11.8 million across platforms. For a big-budget game like that, that's not really great. That's less than 4 million for PS, XBox, and PC each. And then Shadow did even worse with 8.9 million.

I just don't see how people would think Sony would be interested in Tomb Raider or Legacy of Kain given Uncharted and God of War. They're entirely too similar. When you look at their multimedia strategy, it makes even more sense why these had to be sold off before any deal could be made.
 

reksveks

Member
I think if we make the assumption that Sony is in talks to buy Square Enix, this decision would have needed to be made on the basis of reducing Square Enix's debt making them a more appetizing purchase for Sony's shareholders.
Doesn't cash and debt free suggest that Embracer gets no cash that might be in those studios accounts and no debt as well.
 
If Sony does buy Square Enix, which I think is a terrible mistake, they'd really need to drastically alter the way this company does business.

They've lost so much talent, their games lack polish, and they are always in a rush to milk games as opposed to giving them the quality of treatment they used to in the 90s.

I'd only do this if there was a plan to backfill the lack of talent within the studio at the moment. i.e. Buying Level 5 for example would help here.

I just don't see the value here right now. Neither Final Fantasy or Kingdom Hearts are as big as they used to be. I'm sure Dragon Quest isn't either.

What does this company have to show for the last 15 years?
 

DJ12

Member
Doesn't cash and debt free suggest that Embracer gets no cash that might be in those studios accounts and no debt as well.
Didnt the offloaded devs have a 4 billion Swedish krona loan, then embracer took out another 6 billion loan to add to that?

10 billion sounds a lot, but it's about a billion dollars, which is still a lot, but not as much.
 
Last edited:

reksveks

Member
Didnt the offloaded devs have a 4 billion Swedish krona loan, then embracer took out another 6 billion loan to add to that?

10 billion sounds a lot, but it's about a billion dollars, which is still a lot, but not as much.I

I am talking about Square Enix offloading debt or not in this case as part of the deal. Embracer getting loans to continue their acquisition spree is interesting but its a different conversation imo.
 
Ahh, yeah that's a possibility.

Ultimately, they would have tried to sell to the highest bidder. That this was the highest price they found on the market tells us a lot about these IP, these studios, and the state of the market.

With interest rates jacking up, companies are probably less interested than they were just a short while ago to finance purchasing, especially if it isn't a sure thing.

I wouldn't be STUNNED to see Crystal Dynamics et all shut down in the next 6 years. This reminds me of a player who gets traded for a 6th round draft pick simply because no one wanted to take on their salary. I think it was either this or close the studios down and this at least helps you get your debt down.

I think fans in many ways overestimate the value of some IP, especially when it comes to AAA games that themselves can cost 100 million on their won. Shadow itself costs 75-100 million. So it's not just 300 million, its 300 million-plus the next AAA game or two or three... And not that these games won't get some return, but now we're talking about opportunity cost. Would you rather spend 100 million on Tomb Raider or 50 million on a Chrono Trigger sequel, which might sell better than Tomb Raider anyways? The writing was kind of on the wall here.

It'll be really interesting to see how Sony treats Square Enix if they became a 1st party studio. They could take more risks for sure.
 

schaft0620

Member
Here is the thing that I find interesting about this rumor in general:
- All of the acquisitions that have been leaked to some of the best insiders have not come true yet and may never.
- All of the acquisitions that have been leaked to me from trusted insiders have not come true yet and may never, some of these date back to 2020 and almost all of them are Microsoft.
- The acquisitions that have happened have been a shocking surprise to nearly everyone except Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, and Videogamesindustry.biz who seem to have articles and interviews queued up when the announcement comes.

For some reason I don't expect this to change but its really hard to dismiss the Capcom and Square rumors. I would like to see Sony get FirstContact Entertainment personally for SOCOM VR.

Does Sony take leaked deals off the table?
 
Last edited:
Here is the thing that I find interesting about this rumor in general:
- All of the acquisitions that have been leaked to some of the best insiders have not come true yet and may never.
- All of the acquisitions that have been leaked to me from trusted insiders have not come true yet and may never, some of these date back to 2020 and almost all of them are Microsoft.
- The acquisitions that have happened have been a shocking surprise to nearly everyone except Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, and Videogamesindustry.biz who seem to have articles and interviews queued up when the announcement comes.

For some reason I don't expect this to change but its really hard to dismiss the Capcom and Square rumors. I would like to see Sony get FirstContact Entertainment personally for SOCOM VR.

Does Sony take leaked deals off the table?
Sony used to own 18 percent of Square. They've since sold all of their Square Enix stock. Would be interesting to see why this deal makes sense now more than it did in 2014 when they sold. Yeah, they needed the money then, but I don't know that it makes any sense to me.

They have deeper roots with them than say Capcom, but Capcom makes way more sense portfolio-wise.
 

schaft0620

Member
Sony used to own 18 percent of Square. They've since sold all of their Square Enix stock. Would be interesting to see why this deal makes sense now more than it did in 2014 when they sold. Yeah, they needed the money then, but I don't know that it makes any sense to me.

They have deeper roots with them than say Capcom, but Capcom makes way more sense portfolio-wise.

It is a completely different world out there now, even from 2018. I think Sony regrets closing Zipper, Evolution, consolidating the UK and SIE Japan. Sony got Insomniac for $229 million. You win some you lose some.
 
Top Bottom