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July 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes August 12th

CosmicQueso

Member
Feb 16, 2010
14,234
1
0
Mars
Sony has proven it can handle monopolies pretty damn fairly, the PS1 and PS2 are proof enough of that.

PS1 and PS2 were hardly monopolies. Sony was dominant, but not monopolistic.

No company handles monopolies fairly. It's why they're monopolies.

As it stands, though, no Console manufacturer will hold a monopoly in the gaming market overall. Console barely has a majority share in consumer spend in gaming now let alone 5-10 years from now.

It may be a one manufacturer environment for Consoles ten years from now, when Consoles will be niche products catering to a declining group of enthusiasts. At that point it wouldn't be a monopoly either due to competition from PCs designed for the living room and streaming services from cable providers or things like PSNow pumped through cable boxes or televisions.
 

BuzzJive

Member
Jan 4, 2005
1,762
0
0
45
Well dang. I thought the Destiny Beta and TLOU would actually boost PS4 sales a bit over June. The drop off is pretty big. August isn't going to be pretty.
 

robo

Member
Nov 2, 2013
972
0
0
[360] 39K
[3DS] 61K
[PS3] 41K
[PS4] 228K
[WIU] 104K
[XB1] 143K

1. PS4 - 187K
2. XB1 - 131K
3. 3DS (probably)
4. Wii U - 80.5K
5. 360 - 53.9K
6. PS3 - 32.4K
7. PSV - 16K
8. Wii - 13.9K


Closer this month, hopefully.
 

Blanquito

Member
Jul 19, 2013
2,003
0
0
Time for the monthly Amazon vs NPD check, to form nearly-baseless opinions on sales and pre-orders based off of small amounts of information and Amazon rankings :)

NPD data is based off of this post in the results thread: Source

What we do know:
Platform ~ NPD -- Amazon July Rank

PS4 ~ 187K -- 11th
XBO ~ 131K -- 46th
360 ~ 63K -- 78th
PS3 ~ 32K -- Not listed


Now some nearly-baseless speculation:
Platform ~ NPD -- Amazon July Rank

Destiny XBO ~ ?? -- 4th
Destiny PS4 ~ ?? -- 5th
TLoU:R ~ >200k -- 6th
MK8 ~ ?? -- 7th
PS4 ~ 187k -- 11th
White PS4 + Destiny ~ ?? -- 24th
WD PS4 ~ ?? -- 45th
XBO ~ 131K -- 46th
MCC ~ ?? -- 52nd

That's about all we can do this month. Last month's comparison was a lot more useful since we had the full leaks of software sales and hardware sales. Anyway, enjoy.

(can we get numbers for MK8 based off of Nintendo PR + previous month's info?)
 

SwiftDeath

Member
May 31, 2013
23,627
0
0
[PS4] 217k
[XB1] 130k
[3DS] 110k
[WIU] 84k
[360] 48k
[PS3] 32k

Increased PS4 prediction based on 10M announcement but truly unsure on this one

Bah

Off by

PS4 -> 30k
XB1 -> 1k
3DS -> ??
WIU -> 3.5k
360 -> 6k
PS3 -> 0k

Off by 40.5k total before 3DS D:

Would've been 27.5k before 3DS if I hadn't changed my PS4 prediction up due to the 10M announcement. PS4 under performed.

XB1 performed exactly as I thought it would
 

donny2112

Member
Apr 18, 2005
18,797
1
0
I'm sorry for misleading you :p

It was good analysis. Made sense. We've seen weird increases that didn't fit the monthly totals before and maybe PS4 really was building a head of steam. However, there's a good reason why we should predict and leave it alone (unless real numbers are given like in the Fall). :p
 

metalslimer

Member
Jun 9, 2012
26,528
0
0
1. PS4 - 187K
2. XB1 - 131K
3. 3DS (probably)
4. Wii U - 80.5K
5. 360 - 53.9K
6. PS3 - 32.4K
7. PSV - 16K
8. Wii - 13.9K

[360] 45k (8.9k)
[3DS] 122k (definitely overpredicted this one)
[PS3] 29k (3.4k)
[PS4] 195k (8k)
[WIU] 89k (8.5k)
[XB1] 155k (24k)

Eh looks like it will be a pretty bad month when the 3DS comes in. For some reason I have yet to go with my gut on it and always want to overpredict. Xbox One was also a killer
 

Chobel

Member
Mar 26, 2013
15,673
3
515
[PS4] 204k +17K
[XB1] 145k +14K
[3DS] 101k ?
[WIU] 81k +0.5K
[360] 48k -6K
[PS3] 28k -4K

Edit:
{08-12-2014, 08:44 PM} : [PS4] 199k -> 204K, [XB1] 138k -> 145K

That makes 41.5K off (not counting 3DS offset).

If I didn't edit my results I would have been only 30.5K off :(
 

prag16

Member
Jul 12, 2012
11,929
3,921
855
Would've been 27.5k before 3DS if I hadn't changed my PS4 prediction up due to the 10M announcement. PS4 under performed.

XB1 performed exactly as I thought it would

How in the hell did they hit 10M (sold, not even just shipped)? I was in the camp that thought 10 million by gamescom was pretty unlikely. They must be absolutely KILLING it in Europe?
 

SwiftDeath

Member
May 31, 2013
23,627
0
0
It was good analysis. Made sense. We've seen weird increases that didn't fit the monthly totals before and maybe PS4 really was building a head of steam. However, there's a good reason why we should predict and leave it alone (unless real numbers are given like in the Fall). :p

How in the hell did they hit 10M (sold, not even just shipped)? I was in the camp that thought 10 million by gamescom was pretty unlikely. They must be absolutely KILLING it in Europe?

I know right?

I mean my post in the NPD thread just shows some crazy upsurge in ROTW sales relative to US sales from April to August compared to earlier in the year
 

Eolz

Member
Jun 1, 2014
10,193
20
535
Can't tell if serious...

I am, but I was overexagerating a bit to get the point across. I don't see how you can tell the PS2 wasn't incredibly dominant to the point of causing troubles to the other manufacturers. The PS1 wasn't (unlike what some would like to think), but the PS2 changed the market and the way devs/pubs and Sony thought.
Good thing the PS3 happened, and it was nice to see Sony fixing this as well.

I would call Nintendo in the late 80s a monopoly (everyone else was dead), but nothing really since has got to that level.

Maybe in the US, not in Europe.
 

Aquamarine

Member
May 24, 2012
18,812
119
780
Predicting EARLY this time so I don't forget and my predictions don't get counted in the regular rankings.

[360] 51K
[3DS] 110K
[PS3] 31K
[PS4] 206K
[WIU] 94K
[XB1] 132K

Figures subject to change as more information comes in about retail insights.

1. PS4 - 187K (+19K)
2. XB1 - 131K (+1K)
3. 3DS (probably)
4. Wii U - 80.5K (+13.5K)
5. 360 - 53.9K (+2.9K)
6. PS3 - 32.4K (+1.4K)

Total deviation: 37.8K, excluding 3DS

Significantly overestimated PS4 and Wii U. I was spot on with XBO, 360, and PS3 though.
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Aug 7, 2013
8,549
0
0
Yuuuusssss! I predicted 108k for 3DS wooot :)

Who will get the NPD crown? Hopefully in the top 10 :D
 

prag16

Member
Jul 12, 2012
11,929
3,921
855
Boo. Thought I did okay, but looks like a TON of people did between 5 and 20k units better than me. :(
 

Aquamarine

Member
May 24, 2012
18,812
119
780
Okay, my final results:


1. PS4 - 206K (+19K)
2. XB1 - 132K (+1K)
3. 3DS - 110K (+2K)
4. Wii U - 94K (+13.5K)
5. 360 - 51K (+2.9K)
6. PS3 - 31K (+1.4K)

Total deviation: 39.8K

I did pretty well this month!
 

metalslimer

Member
Jun 9, 2012
26,528
0
0
[360] 45k (8.9k)
[3DS] 122k (16k)
[PS3] 29k (3.4k)
[PS4] 195k (8k)
[WIU] 89k (8.5k)
[XB1] 155k (24k)

69.8k.....yeesh. Looking back I don't even know how I thought the 3DS would have MoM weekly increase, so I don't know where that number came from.
 

1st Course

Member
Aug 10, 2012
5,977
0
0
[360] 40k (-13.9k)
[3DS] 100k (-8k)
[PS3] 25k (-7.4k)
[PS4] 220k (+33k)
[WIU] 70k (-10.5k)
[XB1] 145k (+14k)

Total difference: 86.8K

I fucked up big time this month.
 

Zero-Crescent

Member
Nov 3, 2009
6,593
0
0
64.8k difference. Most of it the WiiU, which cost me the correct order bonus due to it coming under the 3DS. WiiU failed me for the last time!
 

donny2112

Member
Apr 18, 2005
18,797
1
0
NeoGAF Prediction Results - July 2014

Units

1. allan-bh - 28,800
2. cardsbasebal - 38,200
3. vinnygambini - 39,000
4. Aquamarine - 39,800
5. idlewild_ - 40,800
6. pitseleh - 41,800
7. Melkr_ - 42,000
8. AniHawk - 42,800
8. SwiftDeath - 42,800
8. doicare - 42,800
11. jvm - 43,000
12. ascii42 - 43,800
13. shinra-bansho - 44,800
14. confuziz - 45,000
15. Road - 46,000
16. RexNovis - 47,000
17. Graphics Horse - 47,800
17. archnemesis - 47,800
19. Tratorn - 48,466
20. Chobel - 48,800
20. Ty4on - 48,800
22. Yoda - 49,000
23. michaelius - 50,800
24. GAF_Agg - 50,900
25. jayu26 - 51,000
26. Hammer24 - 51,200
27. KingSnake - 51,800
27. The Abominable Snowman - 51,800
29. Elios83 - 53,000
30. Lexxus - 53,800
31. andy_lhc - 54,800
32. KenPokesBarbie - 55,800
33. OnionPowder - 56,000
34. Kriken - 56,800
34. RamzaIsCool - 56,800
36. madp0k - 57,000
37. Justice_Bolt - 57,200
38. CorporateClown - 57,800
38. Eolz - 57,800
38. rokkerkory - 57,800
41. Kayant - 58,000
42. Randolph Freelander - 60,000
43. BrokenIcarus - 60,200
44. KillerMan91 - 60,800
45. Jimmyfenix - 62,800
45. MasterSheen - 62,800
47. Gbpackers31 - 63,000
47. marcellok - 63,000
49. BlackBuzzard - 65,000
50. Pillville - 65,200
50. prag16 - 65,200
52. Bgamer90 - 65,800
52. ramuh - 65,800
54. gtj1092 - 66,000
54. hepburn3d - 66,000
56. shwimpy - 66,200
57. Sakura - 66,800
57. Zero-Crescent - 66,800
57. metalslimer - 66,800
60. plainr_ - 67,000
61. Bundy - 68,800
61. FliXFantatier - 68,800
63. libregkd - 69,000
64. EuropeOG - 69,200
64. ferrasvansen - 69,200
66. Canis lupus - 69,800
67. donny2112 - 70,800
68. Death2494 - 71,800
69. RyanPierre - 72,000
70. FiggyCal - 72,200
70. Giant Panda - 72,200
70. MavFan619 - 72,200
73. Maxxan - 72,800
73. driver116 - 72,800
73. sacrificengineer - 72,800
76. Beysus - 73,800
76. Loris146 - 73,800
78. ZSaberLink - 74,000
79. BuzzJive - 76,800
80. joecanada - 77,000
81. DrWong - 79,000
82. Mass Effect - 79,800
82. SDCowboy - 79,800
84. travisbickle - 81,000
85. Danthrax - 81,800
86. Griml┐ck - 82,000
87. bakman21 - 82,800
87. sechsterangriff - 82,800
89. DoubleTake - 83,000
90. rjinaz - 84,200
91. Bruno MB - 84,800
92. Orthogonal - 85,000
93. Goldmund - 85,800
93. Mpl90 - 85,800
95. 1st Course - 86,800
95. Javier - 86,800
95. freefornow - 86,800
98. panda-zebra - 87,800
99. sjagolinzer - 88,800
99. spatenfloot - 88,800
101. Paganmoon - 90,000
102. unknownstranger - 90,200
103. DryvBy - 91,200
104. BWJinxing - 91,800
105. TheCarrotKiller - 92,000
106. AirJay - 92,200
107. maxcriden - 92,800
108. Welfare - 93,800
109. theprodigy - 94,000
110. Duxxy3 - 94,800
110. Godzilla's Left Toe - 94,800
110. Pachter - 94,800
110. astrogamer - 94,800
114. z0m3le - 95,000
115. Gianni Merryman - 96,800
116. SunSunich - 99,800
117. IAmRandom31 - 100,000
118. biglittleps - 102,000
119. Spazgadget - 104,200
120. Coulomb_Barrier - 107,000
120. Prototype Viktor - 107,000
120. pip77 - 107,000
123. Megadragon15 - 107,200
124. noobie - 107,800
125. aspiegamer - 109,000
126. pager99 - 110,000
127. Da_Bears - 112,000
127. orochi91 - 112,000
129. Brad Grenz - 112,200
130. Yoday - 113,000
131. Jamix012 - 113,800
132. samar11 - 114,000
133. Shellshock929 - 116,800
134. skedar897 - 118,200
135. TheRealTalker - 125,000
136. Dangoesforth - 126,200
137. Hoo-doo - 129,200
138. Radec - 134,000
139. Wildarmsjecht - 136,000
140. plop - 136,800
141. Jomjom - 137,000
142. Pennywise - 138,800
143. Omotesando - 139,000
144. random25 - 139,800
145. ethomaz - 142,000
146. LordOcidax - 147,000
146. robo - 147,000
148. OccamsLightsaber - 152,000
149. truth411 - 153,000
150. mejin - 156,000
151. onQ123 - 160,200
152. AmaterasuOni - 164,000
153. ElTorro - 167,200
153. Tripon - 167,200
155. BurnMuhBread - 177,000
156. Mr.Sumal - 181,000
157. Pop-O-Matic - 189,000
158. Kysen - 191,800
159. coldone - 196,200
160. Sloane_Ranger - 196,800
161. GamerJM - 221,200
162. bananafactory - 234,000
163. GifGafIsTheBestGaf - 236,200
164. theWB27 - 271,200
165. robotvendingmachine - 317,200


Points
Code:
     July 2014                       Overall 2014 Top (6/7)
01.  allan-bh               120.74   allan-bh               563.09
02.  cardsbasebal           118.97   Road                   548.46
03.  vinnygambini           114.61   doicare                538.71
04.  Aquamarine             114.46   Zero-Crescent          537.38
05.  Melkr_                 109.28   shinra-bansho          536.66
06.  idlewild_              108.57   Elios83                531.76
07.  pitseleh               108.34   Graphics Horse         530.13
08.  AniHawk                106.48   BuzzJive               529.38
09.  doicare                105.75   donny2112              529.35
10.  SwiftDeath             105.60   prag16                 528.51
11.  Graphics Horse         103.63   vinnygambini           528.47
12.  confuziz               103.62   archnemesis            526.80
13.  BrokenIcarus           103.57   Canis lupus            525.09
14.  madp0k                 103.54   jayu26                 522.94
15.  ascii42                103.45   BlackBuzzard           522.24
16.  Yoda                   103.38   Bruno MB               519.37
17.  Eolz                   103.37   confuziz               518.55
18.  KingSnake              102.75   theprodigy             516.44
19.  jvm                    102.73   jvm                    516.29
20.  Road                   102.73   Gbpackers31            515.17    *Aquamarine             516.07
21.  Hammer24               102.60   Chobel                 513.01
22.  shinra-bansho          102.34   SwiftDeath             512.77
23.  Giant Panda            102.21   Randolph Freelander    511.58
24.  plainr_                102.04   Maxxan                 511.43
25.  michaelius             101.99   michaelius             506.70
26.  hepburn3d              101.94   Loris146               503.84
27.  Elios83                101.79   bakman21               502.36
28.  Ty4on                  101.74   Hammer24               500.57
29.  RamzaIsCool            101.60   Bgamer90               499.95
30.  shwimpy                101.59   andy_lhc               497.62
31.  KillerMan91            101.55   ascii42                497.44
32.  Kayant                 101.38   1st Course             497.10
33.  Pillville              101.13   astrogamer             495.35
34.  prag16                 101.13   MasterSheen            493.97
35.  Justice_Bolt           101.07   skedar897              488.94
36.  OnionPowder            101.05   pitseleh               488.88
37.  CorporateClown         100.96   Lexxus                 487.55
38.  BlackBuzzard           100.94   noobie                 487.23
39.  Randolph Freelander    100.82   RamzaIsCool            486.51
40.  jayu26                 100.81   CorporateClown         486.15
41.  andy_lhc               100.80   sacrificengineer       485.35
42.  Chobel                 100.70   gtj1092                482.99
43.  rjinaz                 100.59   Goldmund               480.88
44.  The Abominable Snowm   100.45   Tratorn                477.63
45.  FiggyCal               100.37   Mass Effect            467.76
46.  libregkd               100.36   Jamix012               466.79
47.  DrWong                 100.28   Aquamarine             465.94
48.  RexNovis               100.15   rokkerkory             465.04
49.  gtj1092                100.11   sjagolinzer            464.34
50.  Tratorn                100.00   DrWong                 457.77

Congratulations, allan-bh! :D
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Aug 7, 2013
8,549
0
0
03. vinnygambini 114.61
04. Aquamarine 114.46



Thanks Donny again :)
 

Ty4on

Member
Jun 22, 2011
11,588
0
690
Norway
Wow allan led by 10,000 units less of error, that's impressive

Congrats

Thanks Donny as always!

Especially when predictions were so close. Remember when all we knew was that Neogaf numbers were close to the real ones? :p
NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions - Jul-2014

1. PS4 - 221K
2. XB1 - 131K
3. 3DS - 108K
4. WIU - 90K
5. 360 - 48K
6. PS3 - 34K

I kinda curious where "NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions" would end up on the scoreboard...
 

DrWong

Member
Nov 17, 2011
4,152
0
0
Well, if I look at the bright side I'm in the points and still in the overall ranking despite missing June prediction. On the other side, I'm last in the overall ranking. Last but not lost, sort of..