Support NeoGAF

[donny2112]

ITT, predict for the NPD July 2016 retail period (July 3-30, 2016) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, August 9th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: July 3-30, 2016 (4 weeks, June was 5 weeks)
NPD Physical Release: Thursday, August 11th @ 4 p.m. EDT (public thread with physical+digital posted 1 week later on August 18th ~6:30 p.m. EDT delayed to Monday, August 22 ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:
Note: WIU will only be counted for unit results and cardinal order bonus. It is not included for point results directly.

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting

Good              Bad
[XB1] 200K       [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000    [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000     [XB1] - 200000

Potential hardware impacting events in July:
Pokemon Go released on mobile July 7th, and everything Pokemon got a boost (e.g. 3DS) - 24 days
Continued XB1 sales to clear stock, including Amazon Prime Day sales on July 12th - 28 days

Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

June's Results (used for predictions)

PS4 - 234.5k
XB1 - 211.9k
WIU - 34.6k

3DS

• 3DS+Vita HW revenue ~= $21m
• Monthly hardware sales (units):
  PS4: -36% YOY (+13% MOM)
  WIU: -51% YOY (+37% MOM)
  XBO: -28% YOY (+98% MOM)
  Industry: -32% YOY (+44% MOM)

Some calculations of possible 3DS values based on the above Unit MOM change are here.

So now June range is 129-137k.

June 2015 NPD thread
July 2015 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive

 

[Sangetsu-II]

NPD Is not the same anymore...

No Hype Prediction

[3DS] 90K
[PS4] 200K
[WIU] 30K
[XB1] 180K

 

[donny2112]

NPD Is not the same anymore...

Well to be fair, we got lots of info for June. It just never made it over to the actual NPD thread for some reason. Check the prediction thread for June, and there's lots of stuff there from Aqua @ VGC.

 

[Sangetsu-II]

Well to be fair, we got lots of info for June. It just never made it over to the actual NPD thread for some reason. Check the prediction thread for June, and there's lots of stuff there from Aqua @ VGC.

News to me

Yey for Aqua, lost fate cuz of that boring NPD thread.

 

[Welfare]

Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of June and July. This is when it is beneficial to compare weekly averages and not just simple month to month, because June is a 5 week month while July is only 4. I’ve also gathered software for July to help explain why July would be worse than June. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts.

2010

Xbox 360 June: 451,700 / 5 = 90,340
Xbox 360 July: 443,500 / 4 = 110,875

Weekly average up 23%

PS3 June: 304,800 / 5 = 60,960
PS3 July: 214,500 / 4 = 53,625

Weekly average down 12%

Wii June: 422,500 / 5 = 84,500
Wii July: 253,900 / 4 = 63,475

Weekly average down 25%

Notable Releases in July

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
NCAA Football 11 [368,000]
Crackdown 2 [208,800]

[u]PS3[/u]
NCAA Football 11 [298,800]

2011

Xbox 360 June: 507K / 5 = 101,400
Xbox 360 July: 277K / 4 = 69,250

Weekly average down 32%

PS3 June: 276K / 5 = 55,200
PS3 July: 145K / 4 = 36,250

Weekly average down 34%

Wii June: 273K / 5 = 54,600
Wii July: 190K / 4 = 47,500

Weekly average down 13%

Notable Releases in July

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
NCAA Football 12

[u]PS3[/u]
NCAA Football 12

2012

Xbox 360 June: 257K / 5 = 51,400
Xbox 360 July: 203K / 4 = 50,750

Weekly average down 1%

PS3 June: 188K / 5 = 37,600
PS3 July: 139K / 4 = 34,750

Weekly average down 8%

Wii June: 95k / 5 = 19,000
Wii July: 69k / 4 = 17,250

Weekly average down 9%

Notable Releases in July

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
NCAA Football 13

[u]PS3[/u]
NCAA Football 13

2013

Xbox 360 June: 140K / 5 = 28,000
Xbox 360 July: 107K / 4 = 26,750

Weekly average down 4%

PS3 June: 109K / 5 = 21,800
PS3 July: 79k / 4 = 19,750

Weekly average down 9%

Wii June: 53k / 5 = 10,600
Wii July: 34k / 4 = 8,500

Weekly average down 20%

Wii U June: 42k / 5 = 8,400
Wii U July: 29k / 4 = 7,250

Weekly average down 14%

Notable Releases in July

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
NCAA Football 14

[u]PS3[/u]
NCAA Football 14

2014

Xbox 360 June: 62k / 5 = 12,400
Xbox 360 July: 54K / 4 = 13,500

Weekly average up 9%

Xbox One June: 197K / 5 = 39,400
Xbox One July: 131K / 4 = 32,750

Weekly average down 17%

PS3 June: 42k / 5 = 8,400
PS3 July: 32k / 4 = 8,000

Weekly average down 5%

PS4 June: 269K / 5 = 53,800
PS4 July: 187K / 4 = 46,750

Weekly average down 13%

Wii June: 10K / 5 = 2,000
Wii July: 14k / 4 = 3,500

Weekly average up 75%

Wii U June: 140K / 5 = 28,000
Wii U July: 81k / 4 = 20,250

Weekly average down 28%

Notable Releases in July

[u]PS4[/u]
The Last of Us Remastered [270k]

2015

Xbox 360/PS3/Wii = Basically dead (and some months have not leaked yet for 2015) 

Xbox One June: 296,000 / 5 = 59,200
Xbox One July: 189K / 4 = 47,250

Weekly average down 20%

PS4 June: 364,100 / 5 = 72,820
PS4 July: 218K / 4 = 54,500

Weekly average down 25%

Wii U June: 70,200 / 5 = 14,040
Wii U July: 46k / 4 = 11,500

Weekly average down 18%

Notable Releases in July

N/A

2016 June Weekly Averages

Xbox One: 211,900 / 5 = 42,380
PS4: 234,500 / 5 = 46,900
Wii U: 34,600 / 5 = 6,920

Some notes:

For the Xbox 360, right off the bat it improved by 23% compared to June, and that was thanks to sales of the just recently released Xbox 360 S back in June 2010. Besides that, the only other time the Xbox 360 improved was in 2014 for some reason. Can’t really tell you why. I’ll drop 2010 when comparing averages as nothing else like the Slim has happened since. Dropping that makes the 360’s average drop 7%, dropping 2010 AND 2014 would have the average drop to 13%, dropping those AND 2011 (massive drop) would be a drop of 3%, and keeping all of them would be a drop of 1%.

The Xbox One has had major hardware impacting events occur in every June so far. $399 Kinectless sku in 2014, $399 1TB SKU + Trade in deals in 2015, and now TWO price cuts in 2016, as well as the announcement of the Xbox One S for August (and Scorpio, but that has no impact this early in the game). Because of those, the XB1 has a larger drop compared to the 360 which is 19%.

PS3 behaved similarly between 2010 - 2014 (excluding the drop of 34% in 2011). The average for it is a 14% drop and if you remove 2011, it’s an 8% drop.

PS4 has been very similar to the XB1 in performance, with an average 19% drop.

For Nintendo, I'm just getting rid of that humongous 2014 outlier of a 75% increase (What even happened?). The Wii averaged a 17% drop with the Wii U averaging a 20% drop.

Recap.

360 weekly average drop: -1% to -13%
PS3 weekly average drop: -8% to -14%
Wii weekly average drop: -17%

XB1 weekly average drop: -19%
PS4 weekly average drop: -19%
WIU weekly average drop: -20%

Average of Averages: -14% to -17%

- The biggest July ever recorded between the 7th and 8th gen was the Wii with 555,000 back in 2008. Second biggest? Xbox 360 with 443,500 back in 2011.

[PS4] 161K
[XB1] 159K
[3DS] 133K
[WIU] 23k

 

[Javin98]

Oh, we still doing this? Thought most of us would have lost interest after June's thread. I'll post my predictions later.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

[PS4] 170K
[3DS] 165K
[XB1] 160K
[WIU] 24K

 

[andy_lhc]

[3DS] 80K
[PS4] 180K
[WIU] 25K
[XB1] 160K

 

[jjonez18]

[PS4] 190K
[3DS] 120K
[XB1] 150K
[WIU] 25K

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Don't do predictions but this is where all the action was last month .
Wonder if it going to be the same this month since NPD threads dead.

 

[Shizza]

[PS4] 160K
[XB1] 150K
[3DS] 140K
[WIU] 23K

 

[BokehKing]

Um, my first time on the first page of a prediction thread...weird

[3DS] 88K
[PS4] 180K
[WIU] 25K
[XB1] 125K

 

[harrisk954]

[3DS] 75K
[PS4] 215K
[WIU] 20K
[XB1] 135K

 

[MrBenchmark]

First time I'll give it a go.

PS4] 165K
[3DS] 130K
[XB1] 158K
[WIU] 20K

 

[robo]

[PS4] 184k
[3DS] 105k
[XB1] 135k
[WIU] 20k

 

[Mory Dunz]

...shouldn't the 3DS increase this month?


edit:
nvm, 5 weeks vs 4 weeks

 

[DarkNorm]

[PS4] 225K
[3DS] 105K
[XB1] 80K
[WIU] 35K

Basing low XB1 on most waiting for the Slim in August.

Thanks

 

[Rymuth]

[PS4] 190K
[3DS] 100K
[XB1] 160K
[WIU] 33K

 

[donny2112]

...shouldn't the 3DS increase this month?


edit:
nvm, 5 weeks vs 4 weeks

Yeah, weekly average could go up, but it might still be down MOM due to the # of weeks.

 

[Conduit]

[PS4] 230K
[XB1] 120K
[WIU] 30K
[3DS] 80K

So, PS4 should be slightly up vs. July last year. Xbone should fall because Slim model is coming in early August.

 

[Welfare]

[PS4] 230K
[XB1] 120K
[WIU] 30K
[3DS] 80K

So, PS4 should be slightly up vs. July last year. Xbone should fall because Slim model is coming in early August.

What would cause the PS4 to improve its weekly average going into July? It sold 234.5k in June.

 

[Hydrargyrus]

[3DS] 76K
[PS4] 210K
[WIU] 26K
[XB1] 125K

 

[Conduit]

What would cause the PS4 to improve its weekly average going into July? It sold 234.5k in June.

Why are you talking about June? I said July. Last year July were ~218k.

 

[QaaQer]

Don't do predictions but this is where all the action was last month .
Wonder if it going to be the same this month since NPD threads dead.

IDK if action is the right word, but there were 3rd hand numbers.

Right now, there isn't much interesting going on that agenda pushers can use to fight each other with. But in the coming 16 months, we are going to have 3 new console launches and we will have solid hardware numbers. There will be much fun to be had.

 

[Welfare]

Why are you talking about June? I said July. Last year July were ~218k.

Yeah, and that July was after a 364k June from Batman. July always goes down from June, and this years June was only 234.5k. Look at my post above.

 

[Bioshocker]

[PS4] 188K
[XB1] 135K
[3DS] 120K
[WIU] 25K

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Yeah, weekly average could go up, but it might still be down MOM due to the # of weeks.

Withouth talk about How crazy did 3DS on Amazon US ( way better than PS4 before being SOLD OUT ) we Know 3DS harware more than doubled the week of Pokèmon GO release in UK.

3DS average was >20k in June, if we use >40k For weekly average in July, that's should be >160k, which is still a big increase compared to June.

Why are you talking about June? I said July. Last year July were ~218k.

...this is basically nothing lol.

You are just expect a random YOY increase when there are 0 reasons to expect PS4 up YOY.

 

[ZachzOOming]

[PS4] 151K
[XB1] 145K
[3DS] 111K
[WIU] 29K

 

[Ricky_R]

The NPD age is over!

 

[Stanng243]

[PS4] 250K
[XB1] 130K
[WIU] 25K
[3DS] 70K

 

[Cornbread78]

I keep forgetting to actually put my numbers in:

[PS4] 200K
[XB1] 175K
[3DS] 125K
[WIU] 30K


I wish we could get game sales numbers to properly gauge the "Pokémon Go" effect on the industry...


Some people are strongly underestimating it's effect...



Gamestop has probably seen the best increase on 2nd hand DS's and 3DS's..

 

[Opt1kon_]

[PS4] 208K
[XB1] 147K
[3DS] 99K
[WIU] 39K

This is going to be an interesting NPD

 

[Elandyll]

Mmmh... tough one.

XB1S coming in Aug, but there were firesales almost all month for XB1.

Nothing much happened on the PS4 side...

[PS4] 230K
[XB1] 170K
[WIU] 20K
[3DS] 110K

Current July Amazon rankings (not final):

#20: PS4 COD blops3 - $349
#62: XB1S 2Tb - $399 (pre order for August)
#86: XB1 Name your Game bundle - $249
#96: PS4 std - $339

 

[shandy706]

What would cause the PS4 to improve its weekly average going into July? It sold 234.5k in June.

It's conduit

[PS4] 190k
[XB1] 175k
[WIU] 31k

 

[Asd202]

Mmmh... tough one.

XB1S coming in Aug, but there were firesales almost all month for XB1.

Nothing much happened on the PS4 side...

[PS4] 230K
[XB1] 170K
[WIU] 20K
[3DS] 110K

Current July Amazon rankings (not final):

#20: PS4 COD blops3 - $349
#62: XB1S 2Tb - $399 (pre order for August)
#86: XB1 Name your Game bundle - $249
#96: PS4 std - $339

How is 3DS doing on Amazon? Also what's up with lack of 3DS number? Aqua shares everything but that. Is she personally invested in that machine and doesn't want to share bad numbers or what?

 

[Kill3r7]

[PS4] 195K
[XB1] 185K
[3DS] 120K
[WIU] 30K

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Current July Amazon rankings (not final):

#20: PS4 COD blops3 - $349
#62: XB1S 2Tb - $399 (pre order for August)
#86: XB1 Name your Game bundle - $249
#96: PS4 std - $339

This is basically only the firsts 3/4 days.

Amazon has not update the monthly For this month ( no idea why ).

The chart you posted is gonna be way off, expecially because this is before the XBO deals and Pokèmon go effect.

How is 3DS doing on Amazon? Also what's up with lack of 3DS number? Aqua shares everything but that. Is she personally invested in that machine and doesn't want to share bad numbers or what?

Aqua can only post 5 System sales.

Btw, if you ask How did 3DS on Amazon, we have not monthly, but in the hourly during the Second and Third week was Always in TOP 20 with the Black and Red SKUs, some Times in TOP 10 with both SKUs.

Then it dropped out of chart because becomed sold out.

 

[noobie]

[PS4] 155K
[XB1] 145K
[3DS] 120K
[WIU] 25k

 

[GifGafIsTheBestGaf]

EDIT:

[PS4] 180K
[XB1] 175K
[WIU] 28K
[3DS] 135K


wow, that was quick

 

[Unknown?]

What would cause the PS4 to improve its weekly average going into July? It sold 234.5k in June.

No Mans Sky will boost it a bit surely as well as a handful of other niche games.

 

[Sterok]

[3DS] 130K
[PS4] 190K
[WIU] 20K
[XB1] 160K

3DS beats Gaf's expectations. In just retail sales Monster Hunter is top 3. It's retail sales are also above Street Fighter V.

 

[theprodigy]

[3DS] 130K
[PS4] 190K
[WIU] 20K
[XB1] 160K

3DS beats Gaf's expectations. In just retail sales Monster Hunter is top 3. It's retail sales are also above Street Fighter V.

lol

let's play a game: SFV will be in the top (pick a number) games this month!

whoever picks closest without going under (over?) wins

 

[sirronoh]

[3DS] 81K
[PS4] 192K
[WIU] 24K
[XB1] 155K

First time for everything.

 

[Mpl90]

lol

let's play a game: SFV will be in the top (pick a number) games this month!

whoever picks closest without going under (over?) wins

Top 160. Evo saving SFV confirmed, more than 100,000 units shipped worldwide for the next quarter happening.

 

[Sterok]

lol

let's play a game: SFV will be in the top (pick a number) games this month!

whoever picks closest without going under (over?) wins

If I wasn't clear, I meant Monster Hunter has a higher debut than SFV did.

 

[CorporateClown]

[3DS] 82K
[PS4] 205K
[WIU] 28K
[XB1] 200K

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Hey, i know this is a PAL news since we talk about Italy, but should be interesting to read even here:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1254888

Basically, in Italy Pokémon Moon and Sun pre orders are the biggest in the history of the series. Pokémon games sales increased by 59% the last 3 weeks, and 3DS hardware sales by 33%

It's 3 weeks, not a whole month, but if we say USA should be similar to Italy and 3DS hardware increase by 33% this month, then this mean 3DS > 133K in July NPD

 

[Cow Goes Moo]

[PS4] 160K
[3DS] 110K
[XB1] 150K
[WIU] 20K

 

[jroc74]

[PS4] 150K
[XB1] 170K
[3DS] 85K
[WIU] 25K

 

[donny2112]

No Mans Sky will boost it a bit surely as well as a handful of other niche games.

Any Koei games released in July? Those are the real heavy hitters.