Tell me about it.
We all know how that's gonna end...
I'm just guessing (and hoping) July saw close to 300K in stock. Something like ~35K for the first 2 weeks (trying to normalize a bottom that Nintendo could ship a week that doesn't account for a big game releasing that week), +100K for Splatoon 2, then maybe 80K-100K for the 4th week. This is assuming USA is prioritized along with Japan for brand new stock from ramped up production towards the end of the month.
Anything 250K and up, I'd be fine with even if I'm off by +10K. <250K and I'm gonna start questioning some things with Nintendo.