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June 2013 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes July 15

D

donny2112

Member
What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Monday, July 15th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: June 2-July 6 (5 weeks, May was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: Thursday, July 18th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:
Note: PSV will only be counted for unit results and cardinal order bonus. PSV is not included for point results.

[360]
[3DS]
[PS3]
[PSV]
[WIU]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good              Bad
[360] 300K        [360] 300 thousand
[360] 300,000     [360] 300.000
[360] 300000      [360] - 300000


Potential hardware impacting events in June:
3DSXL LE Animal Crossing bundle - June 9 (28 days)
Xbox 360 "Sleek" redesign (no price drop) - June 10 (27 days)

May's Results - thanks to Nintendo and Road

Road said:
http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/stock/meeting/130627qa/img/slide04_l.jpg

Using 114k for Xbox 360 as a basis:

3DS: 115k
PS3: 85k
Wii U: 34k
Vita: 16k
Click to expand...

May 2012 NPD thread
June 2012 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
So many people forgetting of Animal Crossing, already

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/130612/02.html

Fortunately, many pre-orders of the game have been placed at retailers both in the U.S. and in Europe, and it has received very good review scores.
“Animal Crossing: New Leaf” was launched in the U.S. on Sunday, June 9 and is having an immediate impact. The digital version of the game set a new record for launch day sales in the Nintendo eShop and sales of Nintendo 3DS hardware were nearly four times greater than the previous week.
Click to expand...

Most reasonable extrapolation: sales from 9th to 12th (day of the briefing) in US = 4x sales from 1st to 8th
 
D

DaBoss

Member
[360] 150K
[3DS] 190K
[PS3] 130K
[PSV] 19K
[WIU] 40K

Just realized The Last of Us came out in June. Would that give a noticeable bump for the PS3?
 
J

jvm

Gamasutra.
With no change at all from May, this is what you'd see, adjusting for 5 week month from 4 week month:

3DS - 144K
360 - 143K
PS3 - 106K
WIU - 41K
PSV - 20K

The 3DS should see a bump from Animal Crossing. The 360 got a revised system, and that should give a modest bump. And the PS3 probably saw a little bump from TLoU. All my opinion, of course, but these should be baselines.
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
shinra-bansho said:
Hmm, that would imply that (assuming the first week of June's sales were similar to May's) in the second week of June tracking as many 3DSs were sold as in all of May...
Click to expand...

Remember that, given it's 4x for just 3-4 days, it's a lowest limit: it's possible that multiplier is of 5x, if not 6x, for the whole 7 days of the week.
 
D

Deleted member 284

Unconfirmed Member
[360] 130K
[3DS] 225K
[PS3] 105K
[PSV] 18K
[WIU] 60K
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
What is with everyone posting such terrible 3DS predictions? NOA already mentioned hardware sales quadrupled the week AC was released. It did at least 100k alone that one week, since in May it was averaging about 28k a week.

So for one week it did likely about 112k. In one week. And there is no reason to suspect it'd fall back down to the 28k a week average of May right after that, AC was a major release. So 112k in one week. Even if (which is a huge if) the other 3 weeks fell back down to May weekly average numbers 3DS's floor for the month could be 196k.

There is literally no possible way with that quadrupled week for 3DS hardware to be lower than 180k. Unless you believe Nintendo lied.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
With “Game & Wario” as the only new Wii U release in the June 2013 reporting period, I think Wii U sales will be slightly bolstered by the announcements at E3 with no significant momentum shifts as of yet.

Wii U - 45,000

Vita, with two ports as its only significant releases and no real announcements at E3, I predict virtually flat MOM growth at a 16K / 4-week baseline.

Vita - 20,000

3DS has Animal Crossing New Leaf, a release that has witnessed considerable popularity. I highly expect its presence has elevated the 3DS firmly into the #1 spot for June.

3DS - 197,000

With the focus squarely on next-gen this E3, I believe 360 / PS3 will see unprecedented YOY declines, the PS3 slightly less due to TLoU and other PS3-related announcements, and the Xbox 360 largely unaffected due to news of the redesign getting stymied by the XBONE fiasco. Regardless, I expect market saturation and apathy have affected the 7th-gen consoles more than ever in the E3 season. I believe Remember Me and DeadPool for the HD console twins have had virtually no effect on sales for either console.

360 - 149,000 (-42%)
PS3 - 119,000 (-37%)


In proper counting order:

[360] 149K
[3DS] 197K
[PS3] 119K
[PSV] 20K
[WIU] 45K
 
M

metalslimer

Member
Cheebo said:
What is with everyone posting such terrible 3DS predictions? NOA already mentioned hardware sales quadrupled the week AC was released. It did at least 100k alone that one week, since in May it was averaging about 28k a week.

So for one week it did likely about 112k. In one week. And there is no reason to suspect it'd fall back down to the 28k a week average of May right after that, AC was a major release. So 112k in one week. Even if (which is a huge if) the other 3 weeks fell back down to May weekly average numbers 3DS's floor for the month could be 196k.

There is literally no possible way with that quadrupled week for 3DS hardware to be lower than 180k. Unless you believe Nintendo lied.
Click to expand...

This is also a 5 week month so it is literally impossible for some of these predictions. I'm tempted to go a lot higher with my prediction, but I'm just going to be conservative. Its always the 3DS that seems to kill my predictions

I also don't understand some of the really low 360 predictions. It was flat in a month with 5 weeks and new model?
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Canis lupus said:
It would help you understand that I wasn't aware that Nintendo already gave hints on last months data. So what did NOA say?
Click to expand...

Already posted.

Mpl90 said:
So many people forgetting of Animal Crossing, already

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/130612/02.html

Fortunately, many pre-orders of the game have been placed at retailers both in the U.S. and in Europe, and it has received very good review scores.
“Animal Crossing: New Leaf” was launched in the U.S. on Sunday, June 9 and is having an immediate impact. The digital version of the game set a new record for launch day sales in the Nintendo eShop and sales of Nintendo 3DS hardware were nearly four times greater than the previous week.
Click to expand...

Most reasonable extrapolation: sales from 9th to 12th (day of the briefing) in US = 4x sales from 1st to 8th
Click to expand...
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
metalslimer said:
This is also a 5 week month so it is literally impossible for some of these predictions. I'm tempted to go a lot higher with my prediction, but I'm just going to be conservative. Its always the 3DS that seems to kill my predictions

I also don't understand some of the really low 360 predictions. It was flat in a month with 5 weeks and new model?
Click to expand...

I saw you changed your 3DS figure. Good luck with that 213K.

Nowadays I like to have very modest expectations for my figures...I'd much rather be pleasantly surprised than disappointed.

The logic behind my 149K Xbox 360 prediction is that news about the remodel has completely blown over gamers heads with the whole XBONE debacle and the identical pricing.

I'm predicting a slight weekly gain...the <143K predictions show a complete lack of confidence in the remodel's ability to push hardware beyond staving off even more severe declines.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
Aquamarine said:
I saw you changed your 3DS figure. Good luck with that 213K.

Nowadays I like to have very modest expectations for my figures...I'd much rather be pleasantly surprised than disappointed.

The logic behind my 159K Xbox 360 prediction is that news about the remodel has completely blown over gamers heads with the whole XBONE debacle and the identical pricing.

I'm predicting a slight weekly gain...the <143K predictions show a complete lack of confidence in the remodel's ability to push hardware beyond staving off even more severe declines.
Click to expand...

Yeah I was more talking about the predictions closer to 100k than 150k. As for the 3DS, it seems to have become a pretty big hit just looking at the interest around the internet. And if the system quadrupled in one week it just seemed kind of strange to think the Animal Crossing effect would completely wear off after a few days which is basically what the original prediction seemed like. And if it did sell 100k in a week it would actually have to drop its weekly average from May with Animal Crossing for the rest of the month to not at least break 200k. Of course this is all based on that 4x and that the first week of June didn't have some disastrous drop off from May which would seem strange with Animal Crossing coming out soon after.

But then again knowing my luck with 3DS predictions for some reason it sold like 15k that week and that 60k the next week lol.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
Canis lupus said:
It would help you understand that I wasn't aware that Nintendo already gave hints on last months data. So what did NOA say?
Click to expand...

When it comes to 3DS: It did about 114k last month. In a 4 week month. It averaged 28k a week in May. June is a 5 week month. And we already know the week of AC's release was 4x the week previously. So it likely did over 110k that one single week.

So you start with over 100k. And then have 4 more additional weeks of sales to go with it. Meaning if the weekly average does not go up at all in the other 4 weeks from May 3DS is doing at least 200k. Anything under 180k is inconceivable. Unless it literally fell through the floor and had some of the worst weekly average's of it's entire life post-price drop after AC came out.

To sum it up: Based on what we have from NOA 3DS did 100k+ in a single week in June. And June is a 5 week month.
 
P

PreyingShark

Member
[360] 120K
[3DS] 150K
[PS3] 90K
[PSV] 30K
[WIU] 35K

Cheebo said:
When it comes to 3DS: It did about 114k last month. In a 4 week month. It averaged 28k a week in May. June is a 5 week month. And we already know the week of AC's release was 4x the week previously. So it likely did over 110k that one single week.
Click to expand...

I thought that was from a Japanese investor's meeting where Iwata was referring to how well the JP release did to express their hopes in how it would do over here.
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
About Xbox 360's new SKU: I haven't seen it rocking the house anywhere.
Actually, on Amazon.com
4GB SKU - 1,825th
4GB with Kinect SKU - 14,590th
250 GB - 2,550th

Abismally low.

Instead

Animal Crossing: New Leaf 3DS XL Special Edition - 352nd

And this despite being sold not on Amazon, but from a third party seller. At 369$. With just three units in stock.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
PreyingShark said:
[360] 120K
[3DS] 150K
[PS3] 90K
[PSV] 30K
[WIU] 35K



I thought that was from a Japanese investor's meeting where Iwata was referring to how well the JP release did to express their hopes in how it would do over here.
Click to expand...

It came from Nintendo of America post-release. It was US hardware numbers. Basically with 3DS due to it being a 5 week month and the 100K~ we know of one week worth of sales the safe bet is to take what you'd normall predict for a recent 3DS month and throw 100k on top of it.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
PreyingShark said:
[360] 120K
[3DS] 150K
[PS3] 90K
[PSV] 30K
[WIU] 35K



I thought that was from a Japanese investor's meeting where Iwata was referring to how well the JP release did to express their hopes in how it would do over here.
Click to expand...

Animal Crossing: New Leaf” was launched in the U.S. on Sunday, June 9 and is having an immediate impact. The digital version of the game set a new record for launch day sales in the Nintendo eShop and sales of Nintendo 3DS hardware were nearly four times greater than the previous week.
 
K

kswiston

Member
[360] 170K
[3DS] 210K
[PS3] 130K
[PSV] 20K
[WIU] 40K

Perhaps a bit optimistic on the New Leaf bump, but this is what I think will happen given the 5-week month and the release of The Last of Us and the 360 Slimmer.
 
B

Brakara

Member
anexanhume said:
X360 is nothing but multiplats from now on.
Click to expand...

Except for World of Tanks (console exclusive), which is a bigger IP than any of the PS3 exclusives this year (45 million registered players on PC).

Not saying it will have an impact, but I doubt anything on the PS3 will have that much of an impact as well (of which GT6 undoubtedly will have the biggest).
 
D

Deleted member 125677

Unconfirmed Member
[360] 140k
[3DS] 230k
[PS3] 120k
[PSV] 20k
[WIU] 50k
 
M

MasterSheen

Member
Cheebo said:
When it comes to 3DS: It did about 114k last month. In a 4 week month. It averaged 28k a week in May. June is a 5 week month. And we already know the week of AC's release was 4x the week previously. So it likely did over 110k that one single week.

So you start with over 100k. And then have 4 more additional weeks of sales to go with it. Meaning if the weekly average does not go up at all in the other 4 weeks from May 3DS is doing at least 200k. Anything under 180k is inconceivable. Unless it literally fell through the floor and had some of the worst weekly average's of it's entire life post-price drop after AC came out.

To sum it up: Based on what we have from NOA 3DS did 100k+ in a single week in June. And June is a 5 week month.
Click to expand...
Even if 3DS saw 50% declines each week from your estimate that still puts it over 200k.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
MasterSheen said:
Even if 3DS saw 50% declines each week from your estimate that still puts it over 200k.
Click to expand...

Yeah. I mean it did 28k a week in May on average. June is 5 weeks. And we know 1 week was 4x the week previously. It is hard to find a way it didn't do at least close to 200k.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Mpl90 said:
About Xbox 360's new SKU: I haven't seen it rocking the house anywhere.
Actually, on Amazon.com
4GB SKU - 1,825th
4GB with Kinect SKU - 14,590th
250 GB - 2,550th

Abismally low.

Instead

Animal Crossing: New Leaf 3DS XL Special Edition - 352nd

And this despite being sold not on Amazon, but from a third party seller. At 369$. With just three units in stock.
Click to expand...

Agreed. Another comparison:

Wii U, Premium Edition:
Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #184 in Video Games (See Top 100 in Video Games)
#1 in Video Games > Wii U > Consoles
Click to expand...

Wii U, Basic Edition:
Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #546 in Video Games (See Top 100 in Video Games)
#2 in Video Games > Wii U > Consoles
#3 in Video Games > Wii > Consoles
Click to expand...

Xbox 360 Remodeled, 4 GB:
Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #1,975 in Video Games (See Top 100 in Video Games)
#10 in Video Games > Xbox 360 > Consoles
Click to expand...

Xbox 360 Remodeled, 250 GB:
Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #2,212 in Video Games (See Top 100 in Video Games)
#11 in Video Games > Xbox 360 > Consoles
Click to expand...

Clearly, the new Xbox 360 remodel seems to have been largely ineffectual in influencing 360 sales.
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
However, as already said, Iwata said AC 4xed 3DS hardware sales compared to the previous week on a Wednesday (June 12th). There are two possible interpretations

1)It refers to just the days passed since the game became available (then, 4 days...not even whole 4 days since the briefing happened at around 7 PM CET, then 10 AM PST)
2)It refers to to the last seven days, ending on June 12th, and so he includes the days before Animal Crossing released.

In both cases, 4x would be the lowest limit. Yes, even in the second one: we'd have 4x sales between 6 to 12 June, compared to the period between 30th May and 5 June. This would mean the increase provoked by AC is actually held back in the comparison by the fact that the period considered includes the days before the release.

But still, the most sensible and reasonable interpretation is the first. So, I repeat, 4x is the lowest limit possible

Something more concrete about Animal Crossing sales, at least digital ones:

JavyOO7 said:
US Charts as of 6:15PM

All Time
1. Pokemon Dream Radar
2. LoZ Link's Awakening DX
3. Super Mario Bros
4. SML2
5. SML1
6. 3D Classic Kirby's Adventure
7. Pushmo
8. Mario vs DK Minis March Again
9. Photo Dojo
10. Plants vs Zombies
11. Kirby Dream Land
12. LoZ OoA
13. 3D Classic Kid Icarus
14. LoZ OoS
15. Animal Crossing New Leaf
16. Cut the Rope
17. Colors! 3D
18. Metroid 2 Return of Samus
19. Pokedex 3d Pro
20. Fire Emblem Awakening
Click to expand...

It's from last Monday, and it's the latest update about digital sales for the title. As you can see, it's already well into Overall Top 20 (so, Virtual Consoles, DSiwares, 3DS digital titles, 3DS retail titles, all included). Since Fire Emblem: Awakening was at over 80k back in March, it isn't unreasonable to think the game sold well over 100k digital sales.
 
J

jvm

Gamasutra.
Mpl90 said:
It's from last Monday, and it's the latest update about digital sales for the title. As you can see, it's already well into Overall Top 20 (so, Virtual Consoles, DSiwares, 3DS digital titles, 3DS retail titles, all included). Since Fire Emblem: Awakening was at over 80k back in March, it isn't unreasonable to think the game sold well over 100k digital sales.
Click to expand...
And still no proper modern account system? *boggle* If Nintendo is really moving those kinds of digital units then they need a better online system now...
 
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