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June 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes July 15th

shinra-bansho

Member
Nov 13, 2011
16,595
0
0
PS4 -24K
XB1 -51K
3DS -18K
WIU -58K
360 +11K
PS3 +4K

166K off. Basically too pessimistic on current gen. Damn you Wii U, you always spite me. (EDIT: Oh 163K, maths fail.)

Chartzzz beat me this month. Sadface.
 

donny2112

Member
Apr 18, 2005
18,797
1
0
NeoGAF Prediction Results - June 2014

Units

1. Derphoof - 71,000
2. Ty4on - 74,000
3. On Demand - 80,000
4. Zero-Crescent - 101,000
5. Beysus - 108,000
6. Welfare - 118,000
7. Graphics Horse - 123,000
7. Tigress - 123,000
9. Wildarmsjecht - 131,000
10. Danthrax - 134,000
11. Canis lupus - 135,000
12. TheCarrotKiller - 139,000
13. Da_Bears - 140,000
13. turnbuckle - 140,000
15. KillerMan91 - 147,000
15. confuziz - 147,000
15. theprodigy - 147,000
15. truth411 - 147,000
19. libregkd - 148,000
20. Zephyx - 149,000
21. Elios83 - 154,000
22. Road - 155,000
23. ascii42 - 156,000
24. Pillville - 157,000
25. ZSaberLink - 158,000
26. GamerJM - 159,000
26. donny2112 - 159,000
28. Orteip490 - 159,500
29. Tratorn - 159,990
30. Yoda - 160,000
31. allan-bh - 161,000
32. SwiftDeath - 162,000
33. Godzilla's Left Toe - 163,000
33. Maiti - 163,000
33. shinra-bansho - 163,000
33. shwimpy - 163,000
37. doicare - 164,000
37. geordiemp - 164,000
39. EventHorizon - 165,000
40. Kabuki Quantum Lover - 168,000
41. jayu26 - 169,000
42. MasterSheen - 170,000
43. Pachter - 170,500
44. Chobel - 171,000
45. skedar897 - 172,000
46. Coulomb_Barrier - 173,000
46. archnemesis - 173,000
48. AniHawk - 174,000
48. Tripon - 174,000
48. mrklaw - 174,000
48. panda-zebra - 174,000
52. Mr Croft - 175,000
53. Jonsoncao - 176,000
54. Gbpackers31 - 177,000
55. Lexxus - 178,000
56. Bgamer90 - 180,000
56. Kayant - 180,000
56. andy_lhc - 180,000
59. Evenflow - 181,000
60. IN&OUT - 182,000
60. jvm - 182,000
62. Dedication Through Light - 184,000
62. Orthogonal - 184,000
62. RexNovis - 184,000
65. BuzzJive - 185,000
66. Frillen - 186,000
67. FDC1 - 187,000
67. Javier - 187,000
69. Akai__ - 188,000
69. BananaSprinkles - 188,000
69. KenPokesBarbie - 188,000
69. Skeff - 188,000
69. idlewild_ - 188,000
74. Maxxan - 189,000
75. Nouzka - 190,000
76. Kaydan - 191,000 (Aquamarine* - 191,000)
77. 3rdamention - 192,000
77. Eolz - 192,000
77. MavFan619 - 192,000
80. pitseleh - 193,000
81. Mpl90 - 193,100
82. 1st Course - 194,000
82. bakman21 - 194,000
82. noobie - 194,000
85. ConfusedGamer - 195,000
85. DayEnder - 195,000
85. Jallopy - 195,000
85. madp0k - 195,000
85. mintylurb - 195,000
90. Refreshment.01 - 197,000
91. Dynopia - 198,000
91. Jack Torrance - 198,000
91. Randolph Freelander - 198,000
91. Relativ9 - 198,000
95. Hammer24 - 200,000
95. Serenity - 200,000
95. thisiswhatever - 200,000
98. GAF_Agg - 200,100
99. Lemondish - 201,000
99. michaelius - 201,000
101. Bruno MB - 202,000
101. delta25 - 202,000
103. kinoki - 203,000
104. BlackBuzzard - 204,000
104. RamzaIsCool - 204,000
106. KingSnake - 205,000
106. ScribbleD - 205,000
108. travisbickle - 207,000
108. vinnygambini - 207,000
110. sjagolinzer - 208,000
111. Asd202 - 209,000
112. Kriken - 210,000
113. Lilalaunebaer - 212,000
113. ScoopEE - 212,000
113. prag16 - 212,000
116. DarthWalden - 213,000
116. Ottoni_Bastos - 213,000
116. ironcreed - 213,000
116. kyser73 - 213,000
120. akaFullmetal - 214,000
121. Prototype Viktor - 215,000
122. Omotesando - 216,000
123. Wurdfurd - 218,000
124. CorporateClown - 220,000
125. BlackJace - 222,000
125. Goldmund - 222,000
125. hepburn3d - 222,000
128. BrokenIcarus - 223,000
128. Mass Effect - 223,000
130. Brad Grenz - 224,000
131. robo - 225,000
132. FZZpure - 227,000
132. TomShoe - 227,000
132. ukpanik - 227,000
135. Radec - 228,000
136. Dragonborn - 229,000
137. Jaxyfoo - 231,000
137. ethomaz - 231,000
137. heidern - 231,000
140. ERMint13 - 232,000
140. Justice_Bolt - 232,000
142. Sloane_Ranger - 233,000
142. twisted h3art - 233,000
144. Angelus Errare - 234,000
144. Into - 234,000
144. Lefein - 234,000
144. gtj1092 - 234,000
148. artist - 235,000
149. Freeman - 237,000
150. Konomori - 238,000
150. mejin - 238,000
150. ricelord - 238,000
153. Bundy - 241,000
154. Paganmoon - 242,000
155. Birathen - 243,000
155. ferrasvansen - 243,000
157. digoutyoursoul - 244,000
157. spatenfloot - 244,000
159. Gianni Merryman - 246,000
159. rokkerkory - 246,000
161. Griml┐ck - 248,000
161. Yiazmat - 248,000
163. toddhunter - 249,000
164. jhmtehgamr20xx - 251,000
165. astrogamer - 252,000
166. Hindl - 253,000
166. Jamix012 - 253,000
168. perfectchaos007 - 255,000
169. AstroNut325 - 257,000
169. biglittleps - 257,000
171. Sharpeye - 258,000
172. FliXFantatier - 262,000
173. drotahorror - 264,000
174. Leatherworkstation - 265,000
175. barit - 266,000
176. Apt101 - 269,000
177. SMOK3Y - 272,000
177. Wynnebeck - 272,000
179. OnionPowder - 274,000
180. Megadragon15 - 276,000
180. TrebuchetGames - 276,000
182. joecanada - 278,000
183. FiggyCal - 279,000
184. Smiles and Cries - 280,000
185. Pennywise - 282,000
186. brickarts295 - 283,000
187. The_Lump - 287,000
188. LordOcidax - 289,000
188. elite09 - 289,000
188. sacrificengineer - 289,000
191. Jimmyfenix - 290,000
191. shandy706 - 290,000
193. freefornow - 293,000
193. plainr_ - 293,000
195. Loris146 - 294,000
195. pip77 - 294,000
197. GrayDock - 295,000
198. RE_Player - 296,000
199. Infinite Xero - 297,000
199. Panda Rin - 297,000
199. drak_dreamer - 297,000
202. Mattenth - 299,000
203. BY2K - 302,000
203. Delusibeta - 302,000
205. Neifirst - 307,000
206. WinterDemons - 312,000
207. TheCloser - 314,000
208. InsuRn - 316,000
209. Arc - 322,000
209. ZOONAMI - 322,000
211. Bedameister - 323,000
212. Regiruler - 323,500
213. Infernostew - 326,000
214. Rosur - 328,000
215. random25 - 341,000
216. BeforeU - 342,000
217. sestrugen - 347,000
218. Clarkus Darkus - 357,000
219. beast786 - 361,000
220. GifGafIsTheBestGaf - 387,000
221. akGCO47 - 390,000
222. PoorChoices - 412,000
222. Trago - 412,000
224. Psykodoughboy - 434,000
225. Chezzymann - 488,000


Points
Code:
     June 2014                       Overall 2014 Top (5/6)
01.  Ty4on                  117.72   Zero-Crescent          446.00
02.  Zero-Crescent          112.05   Road                   445.73
03.  Beysus                 108.44   allan-bh               442.35
04.  Derphoof               105.34   shinra-bansho          434.32
05.  Tigress                100.65   donny2112              434.16
06.  On Demand              100.36   doicare                432.96
07.  Graphics Horse          99.43   BuzzJive               430.43
08.  allan-bh                97.42   Elios83                429.97
09.  confuziz                97.11   Canis lupus            427.59
10.  Wildarmsjecht           96.84   prag16                 427.38
11.  Elios83                 96.66   archnemesis            427.11
12.  Road                    96.59   Graphics Horse         426.50
13.  Orteip490               96.42   Bruno MB               422.23
14.  Pillville               96.36   jayu26                 422.13
15.  Yoda                    96.06   BlackBuzzard           421.29
16.  Pachter                 95.93   theprodigy             418.87
17.  jayu26                  95.81   Asd202                 418.15
18.  donny2112               95.53   Gbpackers31            415.63
19.  doicare                 94.88   confuziz               414.93
20.  SwiftDeath              94.85   vinnygambini           413.86
21.  jvm                     94.53   jvm                    413.56
22.  KillerMan91             94.29   bakman21               413.03
23.  shinra-bansho           94.18   Maxxan                 412.44
24.  1st Course              94.17   Chobel                 412.31
25.  TheCarrotKiller         93.98   Randolph Freelander    410.76
26.  Gbpackers31             93.86   SwiftDeath             407.17
27.  archnemesis             93.78   Loris146               404.89
28.  AniHawk                 93.78   michaelius             404.70
29.  turnbuckle              93.77   Bgamer90               404.20
30.  truth411                93.52   noobie                 403.09
31.  Godzilla's Left Toe     93.32   1st Course             402.48
32.  Serenity                93.32   astrogamer             400.77   (Aquamarine*             401.61)
33.  andy_lhc                93.17   Hammer24               397.97
34.  Tratorn                 93.07   andy_lhc               396.82
35.  ascii42                 92.99   MasterSheen            396.35
36.  Welfare                 92.99   Jonsoncao              394.15
37.  geordiemp               92.91   ascii42                393.99
38.  Da_Bears                92.91   Goldmund               392.72
39.  Randolph Freelander     92.81   skedar897              392.45
40.  BananaSprinkles         92.80   Jamix012               388.55
41.  Frillen                 92.69   Lexxus                 387.78
42.  Chobel                  92.66   sacrificengineer       387.55
43.  Jack Torrance           92.60   CorporateClown         385.20
44.  Jonsoncao               92.51   RamzaIsCool            384.91
45.  Maxxan                  92.36   Delusibeta             384.18
46.  theprodigy              92.23   sjagolinzer            383.78
47.  Tripon                  92.20   gtj1092                382.88
48.  idlewild_               92.19   pitseleh               380.54
49.  Coulomb_Barrier         91.95   Tratorn                377.63
50.  Bgamer90                91.85   travisbickle           372.10

Congratulations, Derphoof by Units and Ty4on by Points! :D

<listening to "Smells like Nirvana," since I just found out Weird Al Yankovic albums (except Mandatory Fun) are free with Amazon Prime :D >
 

travisbickle

Member
Mar 26, 2006
14,932
0
0
Holy shit, just hanging on in the overall top 50. I was going to give up, but that's given me the incentive to carry on.

Too pessimistic about wiiu + xb1 this month.
 

SwiftDeath

Member
May 31, 2013
23,627
0
0
Woo somehow in Top 20 for points for June!

Congrats Derphoof and Ty4on!

Thanks as always Donny. Your work is much appreciated!
 

Chobel

Member
Mar 26, 2013
15,673
3
515
Really bad month for me T_T.

Congratulations to Derphoof and Ty4on, and thank you Donny for doing this.
 

kinoki

Illness is the doctor to whom we pay most heed; to kindness, to knowledge, we make promise only; pain we obey.
Apr 27, 2006
6,106
0
0
36
Stockholm
[PS4] 245K (269k [-24k])
[XB1] 120K (197K [-77K])
[WIU] 85K (140K [-55K])
[PS3] 40K (42K [-2K])
[360] 75K (62K [+13K])
[3DS] 120K (152K [-32K])
[PSV] 5K (15K [-10K])

So, basicly, all wrong. I guessed that it would be a far more stale month than it actually was. I'll take that lesson with me. Using 30k/w as an average for XBO is going to be my new line if not anything changs. PS4 seems to be about 50k/w at the minimum. I really dropped the ball on MK8 too. PS3 was pretty close. 360 was the only one I shot over. 3DS is hard to predict and I need to look more at the weekly sales. Vita is impossible since it's more a supply than demand issue. Learn and get better.
 

Maitiú

Member
Jan 6, 2014
366
13
415
Wow. The best prediction was off by 70k. This entire community's perception of the market was conservatively skewed. I even thought I was a bit throwing caution to the wind with an optimistic Wii U prediction of 120K.
 

Eolz

Member
Jun 1, 2014
10,193
20
535
77th? Expected worse for a first time...
Current gen wrecked me like many others :p
 

Bruno MB

Member
Jan 3, 2012
4,307
0
830
Majorca - Spain
What a horrible month I had, for the first time I miss the monthly top 50 by points. And I'm already out of the overall top 10. This year I have been making some real risky (irrational) bets, now I will be extremely conservative. I can't allow myself the luxury of missing again those extra 10 points for the correct hardware ordering.
 

Elios83

Member
Jun 30, 2004
14,855
944
1,740
Good month for me! Now I'm 8th in the overall 2014 top ten.
Also 225 people made a prediction for this month, that's a lot =)
 

Paganmoon

Member
Jan 14, 2013
7,219
0
0
Atleast I wasn't last! :) Pretty close on the X1, 360, PS3, sales, way way off on PS4, 3ds and wii u.

Wonder what MS will try next.
 

mocoworm

Member
Mar 24, 2010
4,730
0
840
UK
live.xbox.com
From REDDIT:

http://www.reddit.com/r/xboxone/comments/2b0njs/officially_leaked_june_npd_xbox_one_197k_2nd/

Officially Leaked June NPD: Xbox One 197k (2nd place) , Xbox 360 62k

 

prag16

Member
Jul 12, 2012
11,979
4,005
860
Got my ass kicked this month. Dead smack middle of pack. Still barely clinging to top 10 for the year, so I'll take it and move along..
 
Sep 23, 2004
14,344
3
1,550
This definitely means that WiiU trounced the XBox worldwide. That makes me really damn happy!

Not to turn this into a WW WiiU v Xbox One shitthread but:

Media Create - Wii U sold 47,383 June 2nd - June 30th. A little less according to Famitsu.
June 1st fell on a Sunday, and the 30th a Monday. We would have to account


So MC + NPD would still be < Xbox One NPD. Any idea as to the UK/EU sales?
 

FDC1

Member
Aug 15, 2012
3,539
13
0
Not to turn this into a WW WiiU v Xbox One shitthread but:

Media Create - Wii U sold 47,383 June 2nd - June 30th. A little less according to Famitsu.
June 1st fell on a Sunday, and the 30th a Monday. We would have to account


So MC + NPD would still be < Xbox One NPD. Any idea as to the UK/EU sales?

You have to add one week for JP sales. June NPD numbers go until July 5th
 

Blanquito

Member
Jul 19, 2013
2,003
0
0
The following data is for informational purposes only, and shouldn't be completely relied upon to make future predictions. However, it is interesting to look at, especially since Amazon rankings are the only thing we normal folk have access to (besides leaks -- thanks leakers!).

Console ~ Real June #s -- Amazon Rank for June
PS4 ~ 269k -- 8
XB1 ~ 197k -- 49 & 50*
3DS ~ 152k -- 74
Wii U ~ 140k -- 59
360 ~ 62k -- 83
PS3 ~ 42k -- NA
Wii ~ 19k -- NA
PSV ~ 15k -- NA

*49=Kinectless, 50=TitanFall. Combined would probably give them a much higher rating.

Conclusion: fairly accurate on where hardware is going to end up, except for 3DS. I guess people prefer buying the 3DS in store?

Now hardware combined with notable software (I had to leave out MK because I [edit] couldn't [/edit] find just a retail # for them, only digital + retail. The numbers below are retail only numbers, not digital numbers.)

PS4 ~ 269k -- 8
DestinyPS4 ~ ?? -- 10
MCC ~ ?? -- 14
TLoU:R ~ ?? --- 15
Tomodachi ~ 138K --- 16
WDPS4 ~ 210K --- 17
MinecraftPS3 ~ 144K --- 21
WhitePS4+D ~ ?? -- 23
Minecraft360 ~ 151K -- 26
WDPS3 ~ 117K --- 57
Wii U ~ 140k -- 59
WD360 ~ 154K --- 65
WDXBO ~ 137K --- 75
360 ~ 62k -- 83

Conclusions: tons more people bought Tomodachi from Amazon than what appears to be normal for other games/hardware. Same for Minecraft and WD PS3. PS3 owners buy games in higher proportions on Amazon as compared to other places?

Other than that, perhaps these are some (very broad) ballpark figures for preorders and such?
 

maxiell

Member
Aug 8, 2012
877
0
0
PS3 owners buy games in higher proportions on Amazon?

Probably due to Amazon selling PSN codes for games.

This idea that systems sell on the strength of a huge catalog is nonsense. For most people, the 100+ hours you can get out of FIFA and Watch_Dogs and the Destiny beta combined is more than enough video gaming in their life when added to time spent on mobile platforms.
 

theprodigy

Member
Aug 25, 2013
24,331
0
0
T-15 in units, 46th in points wtf :(

anyway where's the obligatory vg****** comparison, they might have actually had a decent outing with their 3DS/Wii U predictions this time
 

Ty4on

Member
Jun 22, 2011
11,588
0
690
Norway
Congratulations, Derphoof by Units and Ty4on by Points! :D

Congrats Derphoof and Ty4on!

Congratulations to Derphoof and Ty4on, and thank you Donny for doing this.

Congrats to the winners.
Thank you so much and congratulations to Derphoof for also being optimistic :D
Thanks donny for the quick results! I missed the NPD hype due to work so this was a nice surprise.

Because I've hunted so much for the predictions to winners I thought I would post my predictions here. I just took last month adjusted weekly using April as base for XBO and counting lost May sales and 3DS has a small holiday/tomodatchi boost. WiiU was just a guess.
Edit: ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Xbox just started being profitable so that wouldn't be good. There are also many signs that this is a shrinking market.

[360] 70k
[3DS] 150k
[PS3] 50k
[PS4] 260k
[WIU] 100k
[XB1] 190k

I tried to use math, but my gut feeling kept modifying the numbers. I am hoping Vita is above 20k considering the stock situation. That would mean there is some demand :/
 

SwiftDeath

Member
May 31, 2013
23,627
0
0
wow they would have been 6th in units this month

which means they beat me too :/

They also got the 10 points for correct order it would seem

Chartzzzzz's laughable predictions (under the guise of "sales numbers") are now up:

PS4 - 198,273
XOne - 183,251
3DS - 157,125
WiiU - 135,517
X360 - 76,502
PS3 - 39,758

Interestingly though their almost perfect guess for Wii U wouldn't help them in points whereas their imperfect guess with PS4 would hurt them quite a bit I would imagine

One of these days I'll have to figure out how points are calculated
 

Phades

Member
Jun 26, 2013
2,366
0
0
CA
ps4 sales - significantly down from may
xb1 sales - significantly up from may
3ds sales - significantly up from may
wii u sales - significantly up from may
xbox 360 sales - up from may
ps3 sales - down from may
vita sales - significantly down from may

i mean they may be in the ballpark for vita because who knows what's going on there, and they're probably okay with their 360 guesses, but good lord.

I don't read that site. Do they post any kind of reasoning to go with their "predictions"?

It just looks like an odd tilt that everything not sony getting better next month for no reason.
 
Feb 5, 2009
9,002
65
715
I WON!

Aimed for 90th place and that's exactly what i got. This way is a lot more challenging than gusessing the exact numbers, feels like im walking on clouds right now.
 

GamerJM

Banned
May 19, 2013
11,841
2
0
California
I'm proud to have ranked within the top 30, I'm not usually very good at this. I was pretty surprised at how close my numbers were honestly.
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
Jun 22, 2004
9,164
5
1,485
cgmr.net
Good game, everyone. Congrats to Derphoof and Ty4on.

Thanks, as always, to our gracious host, donny2112.

See you next month!
 

Derphoof

Member
Dec 11, 2013
600
0
0
Woo! On vacation and just got around to seeing the numbers! Thanks for the congratulations!

Looks like my Wii U and 3DS predictions were pretty spot on! Most everything else was based on last year's May-June percentage boost, aside from the X1. That had to be more of a guesstimate of Kinect-less SKU demand.

Surprised I did well enough to take 1st by units! Congrats to T4lon for winning by points;

[360] 75k
[3DS] 140k
[PS3] 50k
[PS4] 280k
[WIU] 140k
[XB1] 170k

Wii U is a bit high, but I believe in Mario Kart. Nintendo has also been throwing a lot of advertising at the kids, marketing the 2DS/3DS as a great summer purchase to play with friends.

Overall, I think kids being out for summer will mean their interest in games will go up. Sales were up last year from May to June, so it might as well continue this year for the new consoles, despite the lack of compelling releases.