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Kimishima thinks the Switch has the potential to reach Wii-like sales

Not even close.

Better than Wii U, for sure, but nowhere near Wii.

Switch: 40 million units lifetime, worldwide, MAX, at best.

They'd have to have price cuts in line with industry norms (and Nintendo past norm) in order to sell more than 30-40 million.

Wii U's price never really dropped, essentially staying the same from 2012-2016, aside from replacing the $299 8gb basic SKU with the 32gb deluxe SKU and leaving that at $299.

There was no real Wii U price cuts because they couldn't really afford to cut it without losing a packet, not only was a lot of the tech exotic giving little room to reduce prices, considering the final total of around 14 million is probably what prior to release Nintendo expected to shift in the first 12 months alone a most of those expensive exotic components will probably have already been bought at 2012 prices
 

trixx

Member
Ehhh what? Do they have some crazy stuff in store or something?

I mean the price is pretty high to be honest. Not saying that it's worth the price but not many willing to drop cash like that when we got rival consoles, tablets, phones, laptops etc..

Maybe at 199 lol
 
I'll agree with Kimishima because no one will remember this thread in five years if he's wrong, but if he's right then I'll look like a genius.
This topic is getting saved and revisited. I'm not going to pretend like I'm some businessman and say I know for sure it won't sell Wii like numbers. It'll be interesting to see. I don't think it'll make it there though.
 
I mean, what will happen if/when this drops to $200, and then $150 and does have the combined output of all of Nintendo's teams? Including Pokemon and AC?

Honestly, the more important information to take away from that prediction is that they have the production capacity for 100 million Switches, although over an unknown time period.
 

Pie and Beans

Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
Still expecting that Wii audience to come back post the smartphone/tablet boom is just... not understanding the electronics market anymore.

Nintendo will be very lucky to still be making hardware in a decade but they have delusions they could sell the most by a wide margin this generation? Guess Kimishima has to play pretend just like Iwata did to keep investors settled for as long as possible.
 

JMY86

Member
LOL Wow I'm glad they believe in their product. Didn't they also forecast similar numbers for the Wii U? Good luck Nintendo. No way they come close to hitting that number at $299.
 

Gaspard

Member

jiggly.gif
 

NSESN

Member
Still expecting that Wii audience to come back post the smartphone/tablet boom is just... not understanding the electronics market anymore.

Nintendo will be very lucky to still be making hardware in a decade but they have delusions they could sell the most by a wide margin this generation? Guess Kimishima has to play pretend just like Iwata did to keep investors settled for as long as possible.

Expecting the Switch to sell as well as the Wii doen't mean that he expects the Wii crowd to be back.
 

//DEVIL//

Member
Before the release of the WiiU /ps4/ Xbox one, there was a prediction thread here at neogaf where many predicted Sony will be dead last or out of the race completely. Look at how things turned out.

No one knows what the public will eat . This thing could flop horribly or fly in terms of sales.

But one would predict when a console has been known to third party developers for at least a year now and there is only 4 games day one. You will know there is something wrong here .

So who knows really
 

Inuhanyou

Believes Dragon Quest is a franchise managed by Sony
Surely he meant "Wii U" right? It will probably beat GC as well...

Speaking as a final count, with Wii U and 3DS userbases combined, i can see Switch selling about 40 million, but i think it'll be a big drop compared to 3DS in the end
 

JordanN

Banned
2) [Very bold statement: the Wii sold 101 million times.] He says that just like the Wii, the Switch offers a unique way of playing games.

It's all marketing/shareholder speech at the end of the day. I don't think he's going to say anything negative.

Wii wasn't just something unique. The games that were made for it were very different. You could pick up a wiimote and play baseball, or use 2 controllers and go boxing.

With the Switch, the new games are going to be...??? They showed a man holding ice cubes in his hand. Is that what the masses want to play?

If the other idea is "console gaming on the go" well, we kinda had that already, twice. PSP and its ill fated successor, PS Vita.
 

Javin98

Banned
I mean, what will happen if/when this drops to $200, and then $150 and does have the combined output of all of Nintendo's teams? Including Pokemon and AC?
You'll see some decent numbers in a month a new big first party title is released, but expect nothing more than that. It's been said countless times that the big third party mainstream games are what sells consoles, or more accurately, a consistent slew of them. Right now, the Switch has sparse third party support akin to the Wii U and it is unlikely to change unless the Switch does much better than expected, which in itself is very unlikely.
 

vaporeon

Member
Soooo when the Wii first launched did you guys ever think it would sell as much as it did?

I can appreciate the confidence Nintendo has. It must mean they have a good pricing, marketing, and pipeline in the long run for the Switch
or at least I fucking hope so because it hurts seeing disappointment after disappointment after disappointment
 

Nydius

Member
Three things made the Wii become a standout success:
- Wii Sports, a solo and group friendly pack in that, while being mostly a tech demo, set the stage for what the Wii could do and got people interested. I know people who bought the damn thing based on Bowling and Tennis alone;

- Price relative to other video game competition - Wii's $249 compared to Xbox 360's $299+; and

- Advertising, both TV and word of mouth. Wii had regularly played, smart, TV advertising campaign ("Wii would like to play!") and Wii Sports launched word of mouth advertising, with people selling the concepts of the system to people who might not have otherwise been interested.

Switch has none of these. No pack in, and even if 1, 2, Switch came with it, it would pale in comparison to Wii Sports as a vehicle to drive interest due to the entire concept (a video game that omits the video parts to play). The price is going to be as high, if not higher, than their established opponents. I see regular deals for the PS4 Slim and the XBOne S for $249. And advertising? One month away and advertising is limited to Youtube and internet sites.

This doesn't even get into the comparison of accessory costs (you could have bought a second Wiimote, Nunchuck and a pro controller for less than a second pair of Switch joy-cons).

Switch is going to sell to diehards then drop off, which is pretty much the same level of sales as the Wii U. It will probably expand a little bit beyond that and end up selling slightly better than the Wii U.
 

Loris146

Member
I mean, what will happen if/when this drops to $200, and then $150 and does have the combined output of all of Nintendo's teams? Including Pokemon and AC?

Honestly, the more important information to take away from that prediction is that they have the production capacity for 100 million Switches, although over an unknown time period.

WII was the perfect combination of an unique hardware and software gimmick ( motion controls + dedicated software like Wii Fit , Wii Sports etc ) at the perfect time. On top of that great marketing , right pricing , good support and so on.

Switch is a great hardware but the " on the go " concept is not comparable, at all..
 

Blobbers

Member
I wonder what's the absolute minimum of consoles sold Nintendo would be satisfied with. Surely it's not as simple as 3DS sales + WiiU sales
 

Cuburt

Member
The salt on GAF could be worse than the Wii days. Seems hard to believe with the Switch hype and disgust core gamers had for motion controls, but there are people that have a deep seated resentment for Nintendo building up over decades, for them to never make another "real console" with Wii-like success of a hybrid would make people lose it.
 
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