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Kotaku's Superannuation: The Elder Scrolls Online has cost $200 million
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
legacyzero
Banned
It's gonna be that good, eh?
Shining Sunshine
Banned
All they needed was to do a simple multiplayer with the series.
You're assuming it will push 7 mil for an online game, when history shows FF dropping from 2.5m in the previous SP game to ~300k purchases to ~100k subs (both Japan-only), 6.5mil to ~15k! (14 1.0), and 6.5mil to ~1m (14 2.0). SWToR also peaked at around 1.5m subs.
If this is as bad as it sounds in all respects, 100k paying will be a tough target. If there's a saving grace of exceptional raiding or PvP that wasn't in the beta, maybe 250k.
Edit:
FFXI came out when new FFs were selling 8-10 million worldwide, and while DQ peaks around 5 it sells 5 million to a population of 125m, one copy per 25 people - not 10m to a population of around 1 billion, one copy per 100 people.
While I don't think that ESO will be a big hit, Reguard is over 15 years old and hardly relevant. The franchise is like 20x bigger now than it was in the mid-late 90s.
oconnomiyaki
Member
I feel like SWTOR suffered from a lack of knowing its potential audience. Traditional MMO gamers went in, spacebar'd all the dialogue, and raced towards the nonexistent endgame. But that wasn't the focus. It's obvious they expected people to start another character and experience another story, and the Legacy system is a big pointer to that. But the game ran like shit on casual rigs so was never going to capture that audience.
You can run WoW fine on a Surface Pro. MMO developers need to realise that is why WoW has so many subscribers. There aren't 8 million people raiding for leet drops.
Cato the Censor
Member
Absolutely. But that doesn't guarantee any sales - because TES has developed itself into delivering a very specific gamplay experience. Redguard and Battlespire were experiments, and the MMO is also an experiment, and doesn't follow the usual TES formula. Different experience, different target market.
My beta experience tells me that the TES MMO formula is "suck, and they'll come". Which sounds like an experiment of a new kind.
The Legacy system also wasn't really in until half a year or so after launch. Oops.
D
Deleted member 17706
Unconfirmed Member
Their "formula" was copy WoW but dress it up like Skyrim, because apparently that's the only Elder Scrolls that matters anymore.
Too bad the failed terribly on both fronts.
Slamtastic
Member
To have any chance of success, new MMOs need to look at Wow, but instead of chasing after its playerbase, realize that they will never get WoW players, and instead make a concentrated attempt to be the opposite of WoW, in order to grab everyone else.
F2P
The Sandbox promises of EverQuest Next
Action combat like TERA or Neverwinter
Changes in traditional fetch quest until whatever level, then raids/PvP over and over until the next update structure
Like in most cases, making a *thing*-killer that attempts to have everything that *thing* has, but with a single subjective "advantage" over it (in this case the TES liscense) is bad business.
F2P
The Sandbox promises of EverQuest Next
Action combat like TERA or Neverwinter
Changes in traditional fetch quest until whatever level, then raids/PvP over and over until the next update structure
Like in most cases, making a *thing*-killer that attempts to have everything that *thing* has, but with a single subjective "advantage" over it (in this case the TES liscense) is bad business.
Cato the Censor
Member
I agree with you completely.
.... wait, i'm not supposed to say stuff like that on the internet, right?
Skyrim cost $90 million, and needed a world to support 1 player. Besides the infrastructure necessary, an MMO needs a world and content that can support several hundred, or even thousands of players playing at once, for several months (Upon release.).
However, MMO's don't need voice acting, cutscenes or any of the Hollywood stuff that probably costs a lot of money. The majority of the content and quests are very generic. The mechanics and interaction are very limited; you don't really interact with the gameworld (Hotkey combat type of thing.).
Even so, an MMO needs thousands of quests, items, NPC's, dialogue, etc.
On the topic, no one asked for an Elder Scrolls MMO. The kind of exploration and world design that is a huge part of the Elder Scrolls franchise can't be translated to an MMO, or atleast not the "World of Warcraft" theme parkish worlds.
People did want a multiplayer or co-op Elder Scrolls, though. Why didn't they just make something like that? For example, they could have released a very basic Skyrim or Elder Scrolls game with multiplayer/co-op (With far fewer functions to make the multiplayer and co-op aspect possible.). Sort of like an "Elder Scrolls Multiplayer Kit" with modding capabilities - and let people make their own gameworlds and adventures for the multiplayer.
Yeah, everyone forgets that WoW started off w/ all kind of problems, and wasn't nearly the completed game it became before the first expansion pack. Hardcore Blizzard fans and Everquest defectors kept it going while developers had time to build and fix. I don't think that can ever be recreated. Now everyone expects a near Burning Legion size MMO out the gates, which really isn't possible.
I think the right way to go with an existing IP is the way Guild Wars 1/2 went. They had a more limited scope with more frequent updates that could still build and improve with a smaller population. Not a true MMO though, but it is a way to reliably not lose money off the IP.
I think the right way to go with an existing IP is the way Guild Wars 1/2 went. They had a more limited scope with more frequent updates that could still build and improve with a smaller population. Not a true MMO though, but it is a way to reliably not lose money off the IP.
UnObtainium17
Member
C'mon guys, $200mil budget for a game that is on a monthly pay to play system.. And also no free to play games on market right now is better than this game. What could go wrong?? I really feel we gamers see a great value in this game and we will be lining up come launch day.
It wasn't supposed to be released yet more than likely, maybe to cover up a more than likely disappointment until the end of fiscal year.
IHaveCandy
Banned
This isnt selling 7m. Ever.
Dreams-Visions
Member
lol what is this guys
It isn't using the hero engine. If I remember correctly that is.
God I hope it isn't using the hero engine.
I don't think that's necessarily true. FF14 2.0 seems to be ticking along fine at this point, and it's a very "WoW, but with marketing in Japan, and a Final Fantasy paintjob" title.
It IS important that the advantage be a pretty good one (existing fanbase in a major region no competitors touch), and rumors aside 2.0 was almost definitely a lot cheaper to make than this. (Staffing of 500-700 for 2 years is "everyone we can spare" for S-E but a normal Assassin's Creed sequel in the big picture, and Japanese dev salaries are lower than American; plus the staff numbers include engine development)
metalslimer
Member
Hahahahaha at this game selling even 3 million let alone 7 million. Even if it did magically sell that much Bethesda doesn't get anywhere near the full 60 dollars back and people expect any MMO to sustain it's userbase when we've seen time and time again that it doesn't work. People said the exact same thing about TORtanic and no brand does not sell MMOs alone.
MMOs in a nutchell that isn't WoW, sub based.
1. Successful launch (sales/interest wise), 30 days included with purchase.
2. After the 30 included days people start dropping out if the game isn't good enough, which is most likely the case. Something doesn't work or not enough end-game content for the real enthusiasts.
3. Less and less people on the servers, merging needed.
4. F2P or bust.
1. Successful launch (sales/interest wise), 30 days included with purchase.
2. After the 30 included days people start dropping out if the game isn't good enough, which is most likely the case. Something doesn't work or not enough end-game content for the real enthusiasts.
3. Less and less people on the servers, merging needed.
4. F2P or bust.
They prototyped the game in Hero Engine while they were building their own engine.
That said it still doesn't look especially great.
KingGreasy
Member
The difference is that that's the second attempt of the MMO. FFXIV already went through the new MMO release of being trampled by older games that had way more content. I don't think I've ever seen an MMO bomb so hard like FFXIV and then for the company to say alright free sub until the re-launch. I wonder how much money they've already spent on the whole development of FFXIV. FFXIV has been worked on since 2005. Breaking even on all the cost since 2005 probably isn't even a priorty anymore. It's already a sunk cost and now they just want a steady flow of income. I don't see many companies being willing to hemorrhage more money on fixing something that had already been eating so much money for over half a decade.It'll be hard to convince investors that it was worth pursuing something that might be profitable in a decade rather than putting that money somewhere else.
Marc
Member
Now throw in the marketing budget, server costs, support costs, content production... it could get messy. I doubt this sells as well as it is not a single player game, it drives away it's usual consumers like myself. We will see I guess, not even sure what I want to happen. Fail but not so they go out of business but swear off the online market everyone is chasing.
I hate mmo's, ruined kotor3, warcraft and now likely elder scrolls games for me. They could have made 3-4 great games instead of this single one.
Portugeezer
Member
I refuse to believe that.
The problem with that logic is that 1.0 very much WASN'T a WoW-killer. More like a 3D animu Ultima Online-killer shoved out with fatal client bugs and half the planned quests in order to beat Cataclysm to shelves.
There's also little enough content carryover between 1.0 and 2.0 that it's really best to consider the 2.0 project a separate game.
Mobius and pet octopus
Member
I haven't heard anyone who beta tested it give it much praise. I was invited and I chose to do other things that weekend so I didn't form my own opinion. I'm just of the mindset that I probably won't be getting this game anyway because of the subscription fees.
I wouldn't mind if bethesda does come out behind in this venture cause it'll probably force them to sell off some of their IPs like fallout. Not that I don't like fallout 3 or NV, I still rather see that valuable franchise out of bethesda's hands.
I wouldn't mind if bethesda does come out behind in this venture cause it'll probably force them to sell off some of their IPs like fallout. Not that I don't like fallout 3 or NV, I still rather see that valuable franchise out of bethesda's hands.
Unknown Soldier
Member
Shouldn't we wait for some kind of confirmation before we just assume it really cost $200 million? I thought the bloated budget of SWTOR was mostly because they voiced every line in the game.
BattleMonkey
Member
Legacy system was put in 4 months after launch
ESO features a ton of voice acting too.
The licensing likely took a big chunk of TOR too, and it was really a huge game despite what some folks like to say, since they likely never experienced a fraction of it. Each class had a bunch of exclusive content, each of the 8 storylines had about 15-20 hours of exclusive content (multiple SP games worth of content). All the cutscenes and voice acting and multiple writing teams surely added up.
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
The issue is they don´t need Skyrim numbers. They need 500k-1 million subscribers. Do you think TES can´t pull that off. Besides if the boxes sell million they will recoup their money. Besides my issue here is that people rushing to calling it a bomba.
Clarkus Darkus
Member
Think i'll keep plugging away at trying to understand Warframe rather than pay for ESO, £40 plus a sub monthly is just not appealing whatsoever, BUT, If it turns out good then further down the line if it go's FTP then i may give it a whirl.
Panajev2001a
GAF's Pleasant Genius
Uhm... wow...
water_wendi
Water is not wet!
TEStanic?
NullPointer
Member
Mobius and pet octopus
Member
They did explain that in there was a cult worshipping the atomic bombs.
They probably should've disarmed it though lol
plutoknight
Member
Major issue with that - MMOs based on popular offline franchises never ever sell anywhere close to their online counterparts. Hell, FFXIV 2.0 sold 1.5m and that was ABOVE EXPECTATIONS. Usually mainline FFs do 6-7m (you could argue brand damage factors into this but...well..go look up FFX vs FFXI.
.)You can probably assume 1-2m box sales at most before general hype is factored in (and ..um is there any hype for this?)
I think statements like "This Year's TOR" hit the mark.
metalslimer
Member
For how long?
Also I don't think people realize that if you spend 200 million dollars on something your ultimate goal is not to just make that money back. You want a huge revenue stream. Otherwise the opportunity cost blown on this game is much higher than 200 million dollars.
Black Door
Banned
Blade and Soul contains lots of torpedoes