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Opinion Analysis Let's make the PS5 a failure! - A fun “what if” exercise.

smithg5

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Just wow. You do realize people that work at Sony depend on their jobs to pay bills and live their lives. Why anyone would want a company to fail is beyond insane.

I don’t want them to fail. They probably won’t. This was just an analysis of where they are weak and where they are not. Overall I think they likely won’t fail.
 

bender

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In all fairness there's no chance in hell of Sony "failing", they will always be number one, regardless of the strides MS and Nintendo make.
I do think the ride for them may not be as smooth for them this gen though.
I'm still not quite convince that Jim Ryan's the right man for the job either.
Time, as always, will tell.


Jim Ryan definitely feels like stereotypical business man. I guess you can't always get a fun personality and warmth.
 

Shifty1897

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I wouldn't call selling less units than the Xbox Series X a failure, but there are certainly things that could happen to put Xbox as the dominant console in America.

Microsoft is making a lot of smart moves regarding capturing the hardcore gaming crowd, from having the most powerful console to GamePass to backwards compatibility and Smart Delivery. They've bought a lot of studios, and if they start pumping out high quality first party exclusives that are compelling, you could definitely see a shift. In my opinion, Japan has shown they have no interest in the Xbox and Microsoft should stop trying to court them by funding exclusive JRPG's. If Microsoft becomes dominant in America, Japanese studios will have to release on both PS5 and XSX just to turn a profit.

Since this is a thread about what Sony could do to mess up their lead, I think the answer would be if Sony did nothing, or reacted too late to Microsoft's strides in the right direction. Sony needs to get PS1 and PS2 (and PSP?) backwards compatibility working, they need launch first party exclusives to be incredible, and they need their own version of a GamePass.
 

PresetError

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Now that the OP is back up I have to agree with you about the highest risk for Playstation being their conservative approach on gaming. It's one of the main reasons I would stay with them but that doesn't mean it's what most of the people will demand in 5 to 10 years. But I think it's a worthwile risk for them because they are covering a segment of the market no other big company (besides Nintendo with their own particularities) seems to pursue anymore.

I would be more worried if Sony tried to follow the steps of Microsoft, Google, Amazon, etc. Reason number 1 being I couldn't get behind it and reason number 2 being it would an uphill battle with a very little chance of success.

The second highest risk I see in the future of Playstation is getting caught on eternal sequels and clonic games or being to afraid of betting on new IP's because some of the latter PS4 exclusives like Days Gone or Death Stranding have been divisive and mildly successuful. I'm scared of Sony resting on the laurels of God of War, Spiderman, another Uncharted sequel, another The Last of Us sequel, remakes, reboots, etc. I would like to see more variety and risk because the current formula won't last forever.

And another risk I would consider is the americanization of Playstation because since they moved headquarters to California in 2016 there are some tendencies that have me worried: too much politics ingrained in games, censoring, progressive elimination of regional divisions, loss of brand personality, etc.
 

Yoboman

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The biggest vulnerability is price. It is and always will be price

It was PS3s major issue, it was also Xbox Ones major issue.

Features, graphics etc. will always be argued out on forums and will be largely misunderstood by casuals. Im sure there are a lot of casuals who still think PS4 is the most powerful

But that doesn't mean a race to the bottom. I think there is a certain high value the console maker needs to project that makes it worth upgrading. Which is why I think Lockhart is ill conceived

Second, I see branding as of major importance. WiiU heavily tied itself to the previous generation and it was a disaster. A lot of people cof the longest time thought it was an expensive Wii peripheral. I think the Xbox Series X and Series S (if that's the name of lockhart) risk confusing the casual consumer. Especially as the console design, color schemes controller, UI, even cross ge games share a lot of similarity to the current gen. How many are going to think lockhart is just a new variation of the Xbox One?
 

MrS

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Complacency is the biggest threat to Sony imho. They need to get their shit together with PS Now and make it a game pass competitor with a focus on indie games cause they're never gonna put 1st party AAA on there day 1. Hope they don't get too cocky with the price of the next gen system and that it's at worst as expensive as X1X. A less powerful console can't be more expensive than a console that's more powerful than it. Backwards compatibility has to be a priority. All PS4 games need to work on it.
 
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WelshBluebird

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Price. That is the only realistic reason.
Its what hurt the PS3 the most (plus the release date, but this time around there's only going to be a short difference in time) and is what hurt the Xbox One the most.

Lockhart makes the issue more complicated, as its impact will depend on how much cheaper than the PS5 digital edition it is, how much it suffers in performance (if its 1080p next gen then it'll be fine, but if it starts going down to 720p then it may start to be a difficult sell) and its release date (there's been talk of it not being available at launch, which I think is a massive mistake).
 
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smithg5

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Now that the OP is back up I have to agree with you about the highest risk for Playstation being their conservative approach on gaming. It's one of the main reasons I would stay with them but that doesn't mean it's what most of the people will demand in 5 to 10 years. But I think it's a worthwile risk for them because they are covering a segment of the market no other big company (besides Nintendo with their own particularities) seems to pursue anymore.

I would be more worried if Sony tried to follow the steps of Microsoft, Google, Amazon, etc. Reason number 1 being I couldn't get behind it and reason number 2 being it would an uphill battle with a very little chance of success.

The second highest risk I see in the future of Playstation is getting caught on eternal sequels and clonic games or being to afraid of betting on new IP's because some of the latter PS4 exclusives like Days Gone or Death Stranding have been divisive and mildly successuful. I'm scared of Sony resting on the laurels of God of War, Spiderman, another Uncharted sequel, another The Last of Us sequel, remakes, reboots, etc. I would like to see more variety and risk because the current formula won't last forever.

And another risk I would consider is the americanization of Playstation because since they moved headquarters to California in 2016 there are some tendencies that have me worried: too much politics ingrained in games, censoring, progressive elimination of regional divisions, loss of brand personality, etc.

Yeah this makes sense. It could be that the market rejects cloud gaming in the end, which could potentially create a repeat of Microsoft’s wasted energy on Kinect/TV for the Series X/S.
 
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Kerlurk

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XBox finally got its footing halfway through the generation

That a common misconception by almost everyone:

World Wide Sales (In millions of units)
SalesPS4Xbox OneRatio
20134.403.001.47
201414.507.901.84
201517.708.302.13
201617.808.002.23
201719.807.602.61
201818.306.802.69
201914.305.002.86

Let's visualize:



XBox is losing by a greater and greater amount each year, even after having the most powerful console since 2017.

Momentum is in Sony favor, and I don't see how anything is going to change much in the next generation.
 
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smithg5

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That a common misconception by almost everyone:

World Wide Sales (In millions of units)
SalesPS4Xbox OneRatio
20134.403.001.47
201414.507.901.84
201517.708.302.13
201617.808.002.23
201719.807.602.61
201818.306.802.69
201914.305.002.86

Let's visualize:



XBox is losing by a greater and greater amount each year, even after having the most powerful console since 2017.

Momentum is in Sony favor, and I don't see how anything is going to change much in the next generation.

It was more of a general statement about their approach. I’m agreeing with you when I said “too little, too late”.
 

Kerlurk

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It was more of a general statement about their approach. I’m agreeing with you when I said “too little, too late”.

Not so much against you, but that I think a lot of people have that impression, and just wanted to point out that momentum is going against the Xbox, even though they think they have so many advantages:

- having the most powerful console,
- Digital foundry showing X1X being superior in many cross platform games
- fans indicating how awesome Gamepass is, etc.

And yet, they are losing more and more each year.

I hope they do better, as it's this healthy competition that keeps Sony competitive in hardware/services/prices.
 
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smithg5

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Not so much against you, but that I think a lot of people have that impression, and just wanted to point out that momentum is going against the Xbox, even though they think they have so many advantages:

- having the most powerful console,
- Digital foundry showing X1X being superior in many cross platform games
- fans indicating how awesome Gamepass is, etc.

And yet, they are losing more and more each year.

I hope they do better, as it's this healthy competition that keeps Sony competitive in hardware/services/prices.

Well, the effect of a successful strategy is cumulative. The library of exclusives keeps growing making the PS4 platform more and more attractive. The more buyers, the more developers, and that’s a positive feedback loop.

I actually think Microsoft recognizes this and has probably shifted big XBOX projects to Series X over the last couple of years.
 

Kerlurk

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If Ps3 could end up successfull I think PS5 will be fine

Yup:

- released a year later (Nov 2006) vs 360 (Nov 2005), (360 had a 10 million console lead because of that)
- $599 vs 360 price of $399!!!
- much more expensive build cost (partly due to inclusion of Blu-ray drive)
- PSN shutdown for an entire month due to hacks (April 2011) (people said this was an disaster for Sony)
- much harder to develop for, with prominent developers maligning the system in public statements
- on average, multi-console games ran better on 360

And yet Sony went on to win that generation.
 
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Hobbygaming

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Just look at the games PS5 has coming already

There's no way they can fail next generation
 
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10000

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I think this is a great topic to be discussed

OP just ignore those toxic people, you can't please anyone and what they want is console war and crappy politically infused gaming thread

btw I think for sony to fail is to priced ps5 too high, they should be wise on pricing, add the pandemic disadvantages

otherwise I cannot see the other reason

I don't see cloud and game pass being a threat anytime soon, maybe it will take off in next next gen but not now

edit: also for sony to lose is when

1.nintendo release next gen switch with same power / more as ps5

2.microsoft give unlimited budget to the gaming division

3. google /amazon buy ea, ubisoft, cdpr and square enix simultanously
 
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Jbomb19

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Face it XBox fans, the PS4 was a smashing success. Just a complete runaway win for Sony. Sure, XBox finally got its footing halfway through the generation, but in terms of mindshare and the dollars of the average consumer, it was too little, too late.

That said, things can change. The odds are definitely in favor of Sony heading into a new generation, but I think it could be interesting to examine where things might fall apart, purely in theory.

DISCLAIMER: Some might dismiss this as a concern thread, but I really don't mean it to be. This kind of strategizing and analysis is just interesting to me. I've got a PS4 Pro and love it. I enjoy my One S too. My bet is that PS5 will win this generation, but I personally think the odds are somewhat close - maybe 60/40. But why not take a look at where disaster might strike. You might be wondering why I'm focusing on the PS5 - well, I think it's less fun to take down an underdog, but maybe I'll do another one for that.

With that out of the way, let's all ask..


What could make the PS5 fail?

To structure this assessment, I've created some categories that represent historically where console platforms have failed and try to estimate PS5's exposure for each category. The "risk" rating is intended to be a relative rating of where Playstation is weakest, not a likelihood that they will actually fail in the given area.


Inconsistent Software Success

Just because something works now doesn't mean it will work the next time. Microsoft learned this (I hope) with Halo 4 and 5. Sony learned this to a degree with exclusive titles early on with PS3. Nintendo failed to move the sales needle with its IP in the GameCube generation despite some arguably great GCN games and success in the past.

In 2020, Sony's ability to create a desirable lineup of software is honestly second to none (though lately Nintendo has come close). Sure, they don't have a ton of competitive online games like Microsoft or family friendly games like Nintendo, but they have a varied lineup of games that people get really excited about. The quality is almost always top notch, and even the "duds" are pretty good overall.

Maybe they start resting on their laurels and phone-in some sequels and remakes. Maybe there are shifts in market trends that leaves their narrative style lagging in popularity. Maybe they have some management issues that cause poor decisions and turmoil that effects product quality. Maybe. But so far the consistency is high, and there aren't really any signs of this happening right now.

Risk: very low


Technology/Performance

This is not usually as critically relevant for the success of a platform, but it played into the contest between PS4/XBO. It also was a factor with PS3's complexity for development.

It's hard to imagine the PS5 will have any real shortcomings here apart from perhaps not having the crown of "most powerful console". On paper, the delta with Series X looks pretty small. 84% of the GPU performance and 97% of the CPU performance, while not completely insignificant, is probably not going to matter in the long run. The situation was worse for XBox One and most players didn't really care in the end. On top of that, the PS5 SSD performance has the potential to make exclusive games have some unique qualities over the competition.

That said, what would it take for this category to cause the PS5 to fail miserably? Here is an unlikely (and somewhat conspiratorial), nightmare scenario for Sony. Pretend it is is early 2019 and the PS5 is all ready for release with a 9 TFLOP RDNA 1 GPU. Sony hears rumors of the performance of the Series X. Realizing they don't have enough time to switch out their SoC, they come up with a plan to clock the CPU and GPU as high as possible with exotic cooling while tinkering with the GPU just enough to label it an RDNA 2 product in their marketing. In reality, the GPU doesn't have the likely 150% performance increase that RDNA2 has over RDNA1, making the Series X more like a 18 TFLOP GPU in comparison. Worse still, efficiency improvements like Mesh Shading and Variable Rate Shading will just create an even deeper performance delta. PS5 ends up being just barely half the power of the Series X. PS5 games just look and perform worse across the board.

This almost certainly is not the case.

Risk: low


Price

Historically, this is probably the most obvious cause of failure. Examples include the XBox One at $499 and the PS3 at $499/$599.

It's hard to make a prediction here because we don't have the price of either console and there are a lot of unknowns.

Material Cost

First we have to consider materials cost. On the one hand, Microsoft's GPU is a lot bigger, but there's a lot of custom silicon on both Series X and PS5 SoCs, so it is unlikely we would be able to guess which one costs more at this point. RAM price should be similar overall. All of this is somewhat moot in my opinion.

So where is Sony vulnerable with PS5 cost? SSD cost would be very hard to predict. That said, despite being smaller in capacity, I suspect all of the custom components in Sony's SSD will likely cost a bit more than XBox, but that is pure speculation. Likewise, it seems probable that the cooling and case components of the PS5 would cost more as evidenced by the size of the console and the high GPU clock speeds. This is also speculative as it depends on the materials, and what is actually going on in there, but it seems likely to me from what we have seen so far. Lastly, I suspect their controller is more expensive to manufacture than Microsoft with the complex haptic feedback, microphones, and speakers. These components add up and could make it challenging for Sony to keep the price low.

Deep Pockets

Microsoft seems ready to do almost anything to win this race. It's not impossible that they might invest billions in getting a wide hardware base early on. They spent billions on Minecraft and perhaps billions on Warner Bros. If they're willing to do that, what if they subsidized the first 10 million Series X units by $200? That would only cost them a measly $2 billion. Maybe Sony would do the same but Sony is a lot less desperate and a lot less full of cash.

Lockhart

The last factor here is potentially a big one: Lockhart. If it's true that an extremely low cost 1080p focused machine will hit the market, that could really disrupt the distribution of sales early on. Even if the Series X is the same price or more expensive than the PS5, a $249 "competitor" could inflict similar damage to that of a huge price disparity.

Such a box might not appeal to the crowd on this board, but when it comes to the more casual consumer (of which there are many), it could become very attractive. In 2021 there will be a lot of PS4s sold. Very likely more PS4s than PS5s. If Microsoft is smart, they would target Lockhart at this consumer, and there's a chance they could win a big share of them. Call of Duty is going to look a lot better on Lockhart than on the PS4. Lockhart games will look the same as 1080p streams of Series X games on Twitch. This may appeal to a lot of people if it is as cheap as the rumors suggest. In the end, this could actually cause the XBox "Series" platform to surpass PS5 in sales.

With all of that said, we just don't have all the information to make a real determination. We can only speculate until we see some real numbers. Sony should definitely be prioritizing price, and I suspect they are.

Risk: medium


Focus

This can be a real killer. A bundled Kinect 2 and cable TV integration on XBox One is the most famous and recent example, but also consider the PS3's focus on exotic hardware, or Nintendo's striving to be different with GameCube.

There's potential that Sony is focusing too much of its resources on PSVR2 which could end in a Kinect 2 like disaster. PSVR was a success, but so was Kinect. In reality though, there is no sign that is happening. Considering they didn't mention it at all during the June showcase leads me to believe that they are intentionally trying to avoid such a mistake.

Arguably the PS4 is a crowning achievement in focusing on what you are good at and sticking to it. The gimmick of motion tracked dual-shock controllers and the pretty successful PSVR did not steal much attention from Sony's core competency of great, classic Playstation games. This seems unlikely to change.

Risk: low


Missing New Paradigms

Back in the 90s, Nintendo didn't see the value in optical media for the N64. Oops! It can be easy to miss the winds of change and it can take a long time to catch up.

One major factor in XBox 360's success was its very modern (for 2005) XBox Live service. Despite criticism, it was unique in drawing whole groups of friends to a single platform with its party voice chat and other social features. In my estimation, it took Playstation a generation to catch up with PS+.

Despite PS4 doing pretty well in this area, online services and new technology frontiers have never really been Sony's strength. I think this is evidenced by the 2019 deal Sony struck with Microsoft to use Azure for gaming and content streaming. Microsoft just undeniably has the upper hand here.

I see two related threats to Playstation in this area: Cloud streaming and GamePass. Yes, PSNow exists, but Sony is not making the same strides here that Microsoft is. Cloud streaming in particular seems like an area where Sony has a lot to improve. I agree with Michael Pachter that in about five years, the average Fortnite and CoD player will be most attracted to a console that isn't a console. Something like a GamePass subscription with no XBox. They will play on their phone or streaming box, enjoy a Netflix-like subscription, and maybe buy a CoD or a FIFA to stream from the cloud. This will be much easier for Microsoft to accomplish and they are investing heavily in this now. They made specific design choices around Series X to make it easier to stream from the cloud. There's no real indication that Sony has the same focus in their hardware or services.

This may very well prove to be a fad and fizzle out, but it seems likely to me that the price and inconvenience of a console will likely only be tolerated by gaming purists by the end of the decade. Unfortunately for Sony, Microsoft is unbelievably well equipped to deliver this experience. And so are Amazon and Google, despite their strategic misfires. If there's one thing that could take down Sony in the next 5-10 years, I think it would be this.

Risk: high


So what do you think? Where is the PS5 vulnerable?


 
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Jun 27, 2020
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Good thread OP
We need more of this <3

I think not even price can turn it to failure because PS4 was such a chad vs virgin Xbox

Only way imo is Sony getting greedy loosing their touch with the fan base with releasing more and more bs games and increasing censorship AND Microsoft putting out bangers and bangers for a good while.
 

smithg5

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Good thread OP
We need more of this <3

I think not even price can turn it to failure because PS4 was such a chad vs virgin Xbox

Only way imo is Sony getting greedy loosing their touch with the fan base with releasing more and more bs games and increasing censorship AND Microsoft putting out bangers and bangers for a good while.

Yeah I think a lot is riding on what each consoles studios put out.
 

smithg5

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Yup:

- released a year later (Nov 2006) vs 360 (Nov 2005)
- $599 vs 360 price of $399!!!
- much more expensive build cost (partly due to inclusion of Blu-ray drive)
- PSN shutdown for an entire month due to hacks (April 2011) (people said this was an disaster for Sony)
- much harder to develop for, with prominent developers maligning the system in public statements
- on average, multi-console games ran better on 360

And yet Sony went on to win that generation.

Yeah that was a pretty incredible comeback for sure.
 
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nowhat

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The only way I could see PS5 failing is either by pricing it too high (what the proper price should be really depends on Series X price too), or by getting an RROD 2.0 of sorts. The former I really don't see happening, the latter I hope won't happen; sure, the console is big, and supposedly hides some clever cooling technology (we'll see how that works), but running the GPU at such a high clock speed seems like a potential pitfall.

...but #incernywetrust
 
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SentientStone

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Not gonna lie, I was certain that the PS5 was gonna win but they just revealed that black on white on blue plastic box template so now I’m not so sure. 😌
 

smithg5

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Not gonna lie, I was certain that the PS5 was gonna win but they just revealed that black on white on blue plastic box template so now I’m not so sure. 😌

I’m always curious how much aesthetic mistakes impact stuff like this.

It’s probably hard to quantify, but I imagine names like “XBox One” and “XBox 360” don’t help their chances. The look of the GameCube did it no favors either. People are probably subconsciously motivated by this more than they realize.
 

10000

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Not gonna lie, I was certain that the PS5 was gonna win but they just revealed that black on white on blue plastic box template so now I’m not so sure. 😌

no way this is an issue, ps1 and ps3 looks gaudy as hell but no one complains
 

RCU005

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Right now the ONLY mistake Sony can make is the PRICE.

Sony needs to sell the PS5 at $499, and PS5 DE at $399. Thats the best way you can price the console to be successful, regardless of what the competition is doing.

If they could price it even lower (like some survey I say posted), then that'd be an instant win, but I don't think it's possible.

One huge mistake that the industry is trying to make (not just Sony, though) is to rise the price of games to $70. If they do that, they can forget to reach 1 million sales for a game in a long time. At least for all 2021.
 

DrAspirino

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Missing New Paradigms

Back in the 90s, Nintendo didn't see the value in optical media for the N64. Oops! It can be easy to miss the winds of change and it can take a long time to catch up.

One major factor in XBox 360's success was its very modern (for 2005) XBox Live service. Despite criticism, it was unique in drawing whole groups of friends to a single platform with its party voice chat and other social features. In my estimation, it took Playstation a generation to catch up with PS+.

Despite PS4 doing pretty well in this area, online services and new technology frontiers have never really been Sony's strength. I think this is evidenced by the 2019 deal Sony struck with Microsoft to use Azure for gaming and content streaming. Microsoft just undeniably has the upper hand here.

I see two related threats to Playstation in this area: Cloud streaming and GamePass. Yes, PSNow exists, but Sony is not making the same strides here that Microsoft is. Cloud streaming in particular seems like an area where Sony has a lot to improve. I agree with Michael Pachter that in about five years, the average Fortnite and CoD player will be most attracted to a console that isn't a console. Something like a GamePass subscription with no XBox. They will play on their phone or streaming box, enjoy a Netflix-like subscription, and maybe buy a CoD or a FIFA to stream from the cloud. This will be much easier for Microsoft to accomplish and they are investing heavily in this now. They made specific design choices around Series X to make it easier to stream from the cloud. There's no real indication that Sony has the same focus in their hardware or services.

This may very well prove to be a fad and fizzle out, but it seems likely to me that the price and inconvenience of a console will likely only be tolerated by gaming purists by the end of the decade. Unfortunately for Sony, Microsoft is unbelievably well equipped to deliver this experience. And so are Amazon and Google, despite their strategic misfires. If there's one thing that could take down Sony in the next 5-10 years, I think it would be this.

Risk: high


So what do you think? Where is the PS5 vulnerable?
I fully agree with you in everything, and specially in this point: change of paradigm.

People here doesn't seem to understand (and neither is Sony or Nintendo) where gaming is moving towards to. It's literally microtransactions, mobile and cloud services.

Have you ever heard of a game company called "MoonActive"? No? Me neither until february this year,when a friend of mine showed me a mobile game called "Coin Master". Its a boring mobile game full of in-app purchases and microtransactions to move forward. Well... nearly 300 people work on customer support ON THAT SINGLE GAME. JUST ON SUPPORT.

And the "MoonActive" company? they're worth 1.5 Billion USD FOR THAT SINGLE GAME ALONE!!!!

Microsoft, as well as Apple and Google have seen those figures and they want a cut of that as well. Apple and Google have a cut from every single microtransaction made in mobile games, and you can bet your ass that "traditional" gaming companies want some of it as well.

Tencent (the parent company of PUBG and Epic games) is literally swimming in money because of Fortnite and PUBG: games that you can play ANYWHERE (yeah, even in cellphones) and are full of microtransactions. If the trend continues and Sony/Nintendo don't adapt to it, this generation could be the beginning of their decline.
 
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Ghalheart

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So what do you think? Where is the PS5 vulnerable?

For starters, I think you've made some good points, OP.

This is coming from somebody who wants all the consoles to succeed (along with PC, naturally), but for the sake of the topic, I'm thinking just one key thing that can make the PS5 vulnerable:

Momentum.

Sony's going into the PS5 carrying the momentum of the PS4's success. Overall, the system had a steady stream of 1st-party support, exclusives (or games that just skipped Xbox One altogether despite releasing everywhere else), and took advantage of Xbox One's lackluster early years - something that can be attributed to the executives that decided to make the Xbox One the most powerful TV tuner instead of a powerful gaming console.

Losing momentum wouldn't be from one thing, but several things all at once.

Basically, if two or more hypothetical things happen once the PS5 is out, then the PS5 will likely be vulnerable:
  • Sony's launch exclusives are overpriced and critically panned as a whole - not just one or two games
  • Their super-fast SSD leads to widespread hardware defects
  • They come up with some convoluted way to make you pay more money for games you already own on PS4 (e.g. buying the Wii U Virtual Console games you already owned on Wii for $1 after doing a system transfer) - especially egregious considering the PS4 install base and the number of people likely willing to sell their PS4 to afford a PS5.
  • They end up with supply shortages, making the Xbox Series X more readily available to play games like FIFA and Madden
This is all hypothetical, though. If anything, we won't find out within the first month or two, but 4 months down the road when people buy a PS5 and start making memes about how it has no games. :D
 
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Andodalf

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Being out of place on price would hurt, but wouldn’t be a killer unless they were like in a total crazy town, like 699, which has 0 chance of happening.

What would really be devastating is there was a repeat of the old Sony hacks, where PSN goes down for a couple months right after launch. That would be crazy to watch play out
 

Yoboman

Member
Sep 17, 2005
19,400
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I fully agree with you in everything, and specially in this point: change of paradigm.

People here doesn't seem to understand (and neither is Sony or Nintendo) where gaming is moving towards to. It's literally microtransactions, mobile and cloud services.

Have you ever heard of a game company called "MoonActive"? No? Me neither until february this year,when a friend of mine showed me a mobile game called "Coin Master". Its a boring mobile game full of in-app purchases and microtransactions to move forward. Well... nearly 300 people work on customer support ON THAT SINGLE GAME. JUST ON SUPPORT.

And the "MoonActive" company? they're worth 1.5 Billion USD FOR THAT SINGLE GAME ALONE!!!!

Microsoft, as well as Apple and Google have seen those figures and they want a cut of that as well. Apple and Google have a cut from every single microtransaction made in mobile games, and you can bet your ass that "traditional" gaming companies want some of it as well.

Tencent (the parent company of PUBG and Epic games) is literally swimming in money because of Fortnite and PUBG: games that you can play ANYWHERE (yeah, even in cellphones) and are full of microtransactions. If the trend continues and Sony/Nintendo don't adapt to it, this generation could be the beginning of their decline.
Pretty sure Sony and Nintendo already have mtx and PS4 is the biggest money spinner of the online gaming platforms but go on
 

ZywyPL

Member
Nov 27, 2018
4,125
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High price + poor launch lineup. The former is unknown as of now but the latter doesn't shine, to say the least, Spider-Man won't push big numbers on its own, the rest of their games don't even have an estimated launch date like Q1-4 2021. High price and no software is an easy route to failure, as seen with PS3. The football crowd will as always pick PS5 for Fifa tho.
 
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Hudo

Member
Jul 26, 2018
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I disagree with your assessment of the consistent software lineup. Sony's first-party is pretty one-sided. They concentrate mostly on one type of game experience (third-person cinematic action games) and rely on third-parties to fill the huge gaps. It wouldn't hurt for Sony to diversify their lineup. What about making their own JRPG? What about investing in Japan Studio, who seem the only ones to actually want to try to develop different kinds of games? For me, Sony's first-party was never really the reason to buy a PlayStation, it was rather the strong (Japanese) third-party support. And with third-parties finally embracing multiplatform development, it's time for Sony to take all that money they have supposedly made with PS4 and invest in their first-party lineup and not to try to moneyhat third-parties into some form of (temporary) exclusivity, because the latter doesn't seem like a long-term viable business model.
 
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smithg5

Member
Nov 4, 2014
237
339
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I fully agree with you in everything, and specially in this point: change of paradigm.

People here doesn't seem to understand (and neither is Sony or Nintendo) where gaming is moving towards to. It's literally microtransactions, mobile and cloud services.

Have you ever heard of a game company called "MoonActive"? No? Me neither until february this year,when a friend of mine showed me a mobile game called "Coin Master". Its a boring mobile game full of in-app purchases and microtransactions to move forward. Well... nearly 300 people work on customer support ON THAT SINGLE GAME. JUST ON SUPPORT.

And the "MoonActive" company? they're worth 1.5 Billion USD FOR THAT SINGLE GAME ALONE!!!!

Microsoft, as well as Apple and Google have seen those figures and they want a cut of that as well. Apple and Google have a cut from every single microtransaction made in mobile games, and you can bet your ass that "traditional" gaming companies want some of it as well.

Tencent (the parent company of PUBG and Epic games) is literally swimming in money because of Fortnite and PUBG: games that you can play ANYWHERE (yeah, even in cellphones) and are full of microtransactions. If the trend continues and Sony/Nintendo don't adapt to it, this generation could be the beginning of their decline.

Fortnite is definitely the template for this kind of industry transition. It just remains to be seen if the average player will accept cloud streaming as a replacement for the physical console.
 
Apr 20, 2015
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European consumers are braindead Sony zombies, so it doesn't matter what this company or its competitors do. They'll buy whatever reads PlayStation" on it. Sony could probably release three console turds in a row and people wouldn't change their buying habits. They won't ever fuck up this bad.
 

Men_in_Boxes

Member
May 31, 2020
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Here's the realistic "failure" scenario for Sony next gen...

Microsoft's cross platform, cross gen policies are a smash hit. Games sell more than 2x on XBox thanks to PC and XBox One Install base.

Lockhart sells like crazy at $299 and Sony is stuck in the mud with a $499 PS5.

I don't think the PS5 will be a failure, but I could see it selling 20 percent less than the PS4 and getting outsold by the Series X/S.
 
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12Dannu123

Member
Sep 23, 2016
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Sony is very vulnerable to changing paradigms of the gaming market. There's no doubt about that. Sony REALLY needs to catch up to Microsoft, Amazon and Google to offer one-click integration with social media platforms and start working with partners to promote PSNow. By the time Cloud gaming takes off, Amazon, Google, Microsoft will already have the established pieces in place to allow their platform to become mainstream. Getting PSNow ready before Cloud gaming is ready is key.

Based on the current direction. While PSNow will have lot of users if Sony bundles PSNow with PS+, that userbase will be limited to Consoles and not the wider audience.