Macroaxis: Sony Has 79% Chance of Going Bankrupt in the Next 2 Years !

[Contra11]

According to Macroaxis, a financial engineering tool website that analyzes companies and determines their well-being, Sony Entertainment has a discouraging 79% chance of going bankrupt in the next 2 years

“Based on latest financial disclosure Sony Corporation has Probability Of Bankruptcy of 78%. This is 182.34% higher than that of Consumer Goods sector, and 163.57% higher than that of Electronic Equipment industry, The Probability Of Bankruptcy for all stocks is 122.48% lower than the firm.”

While it wouldn’t be factual to say that SNE will fail in the next 2 years (it’s all a guess), the 78.49% figure is based off of real, actual numbers. Many will consider this number overly inflated, but it all doesn’t sound too far-fetched when you take into consideration some of the things that have been happening over in Sony Land. Last year, Sony’s market value was slashed down to “junk” status, and they’ve sold multiple HQ buildings as well.

Not to mention, Sony still hasn’t recovered from all of the money they’ve lost on the PS3, and the Vita is still not profitable and isn’t selling as well as it should.

For comparative purposes, Macroaxis is stating that Nintendo has only a 22% chance of failing in the next 2 years , which is very ironic considering the fact that the majority of gamers and journalists online are always claiming that Nintendo is in imminent danger, when in reality Nintendo is very healthy and Sony is the actually the one closest to failing out of the console manufacturers. Microsoft is sitting off to the side with only 1% chance of failure.

Source

 

[Pyrokai]

Interesting. I hope this doesn't happen

 

[iceatcs]

MS Entertainment and Devices Division and SCE Has 100% Chance of Going Bankrupt in the Next 2 years. Sound better I think.
Not sure about SNE as whole.

Nintendo as well in the whole company because no other option market they have.

 

[pswii60]

I'm surprised Nintendo is at a 22% probability. Don't they have a huge cash war chest and no debt to speak of? Even if 3DS takes a nosedive this year and Wii U falls further, they should still be fine for a few years yet?

Regardless, Sony being in a financial mess isn't really news. But Kaz does seem to be slowly trying to turn the company around after Stringer left it in turmoil. It's still going to be a slow struggle for them to recover in the grand scheme of things, given the change in competition over the last decade from Apple, Samsung and LG. Competition which only seems to continue to thrive. PS4 doing well is great news for them, but even with PS2-like success, it won't be enough on its own to turn around the corporations fortunes.

 

[Takao]

This site lists Research In Motion at less than Sony. I dunno man. http://www.macroaxis.com/invest/market/RIMM--fundamentals--Research-In-Motion-Limited

 

[Robot Pants]

 

[Dinjooh]

78.49 = 79% ??

I have quite a lot of tech from them that i'd like to see supported 2 year+, so hopefully this isn't accurate at all.

 

[Caayn]

MS Has 100% Chance of Going Bankrupt in the Next 2 years. Sound better I think.

Really? Microsoft biggest business are still doing well. And they've just had a new record revenue ($18.53 Billion) If that means that a company is in financial trouble then frankly I don't expect a lot of companies reaching the ends of this year.

 

[iceatcs]

Really? Microsoft biggest business are still doing well. And they've just had a new record revenue ($18.53 Billion) If that means that a company is in financial trouble then frankly I don't expect a lot of companies reaching the ends of this year.

Oh I mean Entertainment and Devices Division.

 

[Nemesis121]

Really? Microsoft biggest business are still doing well. And they've just had a new record revenue ($18.53 Billion)

sarcasm man no way he was serious...

 

[Corto]

Everyone one attentive enough knows that Sony is in a do or die situation. There won't be more office buildings to sell going forward and revenue/profits need to come in from more orthodox sources.

 

[Skeff]

I think the 79% figure might be a bit high to be honest, Sure they might be making large changes but I don't think they'll go bankrupt, spin off movies or something perhaps and stick with electronics and Insurance, but not go bankrupt.

 

[Gxgear]

By Sony Entertainment do they mean Sony Corporation?

 

[tolkir]

Uncharted 5, Xbone exclusive.

 

[LonelyGreyWolf]

Yeah, things are looking dire. I hope it all works out. Lots and lots of people would be affected by this.

By Sony Entertainment do they mean Sony Corporation?

It clearly says Sony Corporation in the quote.

 

[ЯAW]

How is Sony's mobile division doing? I figured they are pretty close to their sales estimates. Apparently there isn't much money in the game if you are not Samsung or Apple, so is the mobile division even that vital for Sony?

Instead of Sony going out of business we would probably see fusion or gov. bailout.

 

[Cheeky]

What is the source on the Vita not being profitable? Its not very big, yes. But considering how the attach rate is, the need to buy expensive memory and more i do think they make some profit on every Vita sold. enough to at least keep selling it, i don't think Sony could afford to keep selling it if it wasn't making at least a little profit.

 

[Zalman]

Uncharted 5, Xbone exclusive.

That will happen after Microsoft sells the Xbox brand to Samsung.

 

[JB2448]

By Sony Entertainment do they mean Sony Corporation?

According to the original source, yes.

 

[Fou-Lu]

I feel like there is something wrong with this analysis. Both Sony and Nintendo's figures seem too high.

I can't even imagine what Nintendo could do to go bankrupt in two years and they have a 22% chance?

 

[zeopower6]

I think the 79% figure might be a bit high to be honest, Sure they might be making large changes but I don't think they'll go bankrupt, spin off movies or something perhaps and stick with electronics and Insurance, but not go bankrupt.

It's all based on stock data though, isn't it? >_>

Oh well... it's not like their finances were in that great of a state a few years ago either.

 

[DemonCleaner]

My analysis: Macroaxis has a 95 % chance of going bankrupt in the next 2 years if this doesn't turn out to be true.

 

[GHG]

Well thats that then. Everybody run out and buy Xbones, Sony is history.

 

[catmario]

I think this won't happen.
Actually, There are many words about 'sony doomed' for many years.

But as you see, Sony is going well for now.

Even if sony is really danger, sony's playstation business will go well for a long time.

 

[MisterHero]

By the time Playstation became self-aware it had spread into millions of computer servers across the planet. Ordinary computers in office buildings, dorm rooms; everywhere. It was software; in cyberspace. There was no system core; it could not be shutdown. The attack began at 6:18 PM, just as he said it would. Judgment Day, the day the human race was almost destroyed by the weapons they'd built to protect themselves. I should have realized it was never our destiny to stop Judgment Day, it was merely to survive it, together. The Terminator knew; he tried to tell us, but I didn't want to hear it. Maybe the future has been written. I don't know; all I know is what the Terminator taught me; never stop fighting. And I never will. The battle has just begun.

 

[The_Endgamer]

I don't think Japan's government would let that happen tbh.

Sony's film distribution, music labels, home electronics and videogame departments all stack up to something that is pretty large for them to keep.

 

[Leb]

Handy rule of thumb: the more significant digits a forecaster attaches to a statistically incalculable unknown, the less faith you should have in the accuracy of their prediction.

 

[Eusis]

Well thats that then. Everybody run out and buy Xbones, Sony is history.

I wouldn't be surprised with the way Microsoft's stockholders are acting that they'd dump the Xbox anyway as just not being worth the effort.

It'll be surreal if both consoles collapse on themselves for different reasons despite having fairly strong launches. Doubly so if Nintendo successfully picks up the pieces again anyway.

 

[Caayn]

Oh I mean Entertainment and Devices Division.

Still very unlikely. Xbox isn't the only product line that is part of that division.

sarcasm man no way he was serious...

Was hoping for that. But seeing his reaction to me I highly doubt that he is sarcastically or he is trolling.

 

[Madness]

How is Sony's mobile division doing? I figured they are pretty close to their sales estimates. Apparently there isn't much money in the game if you are not Samsung or Apple, so is the mobile division even that vital for Sony?

Before bankrupt we would likely to see fusion or gov. bailout.

Hardware is a loss leader for a lot of folks, Samsung knows this and it's why they've increasingly used their software instead of Google one their phones. Things like S-Voice, Samsung Apps etc. They'd fully ditch Android right now if they were strong enough as a software brand like Apple, it's why they're pushing their Tizen OS too.

Sony, HTC both struggle with their mobile divisions, they're large enough that they can do it, but it's not hugely successful or profitable. Sony Corporation might need to do something about their pictures branch as well, they're also struggling with their music players and services too. The PS4 is a success but it doesn't necessarily mean things are rosy for Sony Corp. overall, don't think they'll go bankrupt though. Plus analysts have been wrong before too.

 

[The_Endgamer]

That will happen after Microsoft sells the Xbox brand to Samsung.

I would be down for this.

 

[Sword Of Doom]

Explains why they released so many games for the PS3 and left nothing really for the PS4 this past 2 years. They really couldn't afford to do it

 

[Sandfox]

Iwata would have to literally start burning money for Nintendo to go bankrupt in two years.

also, Sony has its problems atm but I don't see them going bankrupt any time soon.

 

[ЯAW]

I don't think Japan's government would let that happen tbh.

Sony's film distribution, music labels, home electronics and videogame departments all stack up to something that is pretty large for them to keep.

Yup, gov. would just keep showering them with cash. Or maybe negotiate fusion with other companies.

 

[StratJ]

People shouldn't hold anything to this but there's no denying they're in a troubling financial situation. For the hope of competition sake and my own, I hope this doesn't happen.

 

[Tomcat]

sarcasm man no way he was serious...

obviously he was lol

 

[Hydrogen Bluebird]

Well this story is something alright.

EDIT:

I don't know if this is very accurate.

 

[Palette Swap]

Not necessarily surprising given the state of their financials.

For comparative purposes, Macroaxis is stating that Nintendo has only a 22% chance of failing in the next 2 years , which is very ironic considering the fact that the majority of gamers and journalists online are always claiming that Nintendo is in imminent danger

That's some revisionism (or very selective understanding on the "journalists"'s part) going on right here. When people usually mention trouble for Nintendo, they're thinking of:
a) WiiU's not so rosy market outlook, which has little to do with the issue at hand.
b) An overall governance / corporate culture issue that might eventually bite them in the ass. I can't imagine a Z-score would be the best metric to reflect that.

In either case, I don't think anyone reasonable mentioning these expects Nintendo to go bankrupt in the next 2 years.


Also, OP, you should use the direct link: http://gaminrealm.com/2013/12/30/sony-79-chance-bankrupt-2-years/
I don't particularly care for N4G's stupid redirections.

 

[DieH@rd]

I predict that NeoGAF has a 79% chance of being unavailable during next E3 Sony pressconf.

 

[Mushroomer25]

Hasn't every non-Playstation part of the Sony brand been floundering for the past few years? They no longer seem competitive in smartphones, laptops, tablets, etc.

 

[donny2112]

Microsoft is sitting off to the side with only 1% chance of failure.

This is the real shocking news of the article. Couldn't they buy several small countries right now with their yearly profits or something? Guess the scale didn't go down to 0% chance of going bankrupt in 2 years...

 

[catmario]

I don't think Japan's government would let that happen tbh.

Sony's film distribution, music labels, home electronics and videogame departments all stack up to something that is pretty large for them to keep.

Yep I agree.
Even if this is true, japanese government won't let them bankrupt.

 

[LonelyGreyWolf]

Even if sony is really danger, sony's playstation business will go well for a long time.

All the money that Sony made on the PS2 was lost on the PS3. The console industry is a mess. Just about every game console is being sold at a loss. A lot of people at Microsoft want the company to leave the console business.

The "Playstation business" as you put it isn't magically amazing. It's been getting better for Sony these last few years though, but you have no idea how much money these kinds of things cost.

 

[Aureon]

Handy rule of thumb: the more significant digits a forecaster attaches to a statistically incalculable unknown, the less faith you should have in the accuracy of their prediction.

Indeed. Those who put 4 digits on a value that has statistical variance to the first digit are hardly ever good forecasters of anything.

 

[Hydrogen Bluebird]

I predict that NeoGAF has a 79% chance of being unavailable during next E3 Sony pressconf.

More like 100% after The Last Guardian for PS4 release date is announced.

 

[thewhitehawk]

Not sure how their other products are doing in the market, but Sony was the second best selling mirrorless camera manufacturer in 2013, and the PS4 is doing very well in the market.

While it wouldn't surprise me greatly to see Sony leaving some markets that have little profit or marketshare for them (like televisions or personal computers), but I think parts of the company will continue to live on.

 

[donny2112]

Handy rule of thumb: the more significant digits a forecaster attaches to a statistically incalculable unknown, the less faith you should have in the accuracy of their prediction.

That is handy! :lol

 

[goomba]

hopefully ps4 and xperia phones will let them bounce back.

If they did go bankrupt maybe a chinese company would buy them

 

[ChiliManiac]

I feel like there is something wrong with this analysis. Both Sony and Nintendo's figures seem too high.

I can't even imagine what Nintendo could do to go bankrupt in two years and they have a 22% chance?

It's mostly based off of value in stock. These companies have huge amounts of money in stock and investors. Loose a few of them and your companies value can really depreciate. Microsoft has a really strong investor outlook compared to Sony and Nintendo at least at this point.

 

[Walshicus]

Not sure how their other products are doing in the market, but Sony was the second best selling mirrorless camera manufacturer in 2013, and the PS4 is doing very well in the market.

While it wouldn't surprise me greatly to see Sony leaving some markets that have little profit or marketshare for them (like televisions or personal computers), but I think parts of the company will continue to live on.

You can sell a lot and still be unprofitable as a business. Similarly you can sell a small amount and be massively profitable.