March 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes April 14th

Apr 18, 2005
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#1
What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Monday, April 14th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: March 2-April 5, 2014 (5 weeks, February was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: Thursday, April 17th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:
Note: PS3 and WIU will only be counted for unit results and cardinal order bonus. They are not included for point results.

[360]
[3DS]
[PS3]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good              Bad
[PS4] 300K       [PS4] 300 thousand
[PS4] 300,000    [PS4] 300.000
[PS4] 300000     [PS4] - 300000

Potential hardware impacting events in February:
PS4 supply easing during the month (generally available by end of month?)
XB1 Titanfall (March 11) - 26 days
PS4 Infamous: Second Son (March 21) - 16 days

February's Results - thanks to various angles
(Used for Feb. predictions)

PS4: 268K
XB1: 258K
3DS: ~155K
360: 114K
PS3: 103K
Wii U: 82K

February 2013 NPD thread
March 2013 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
May 24, 2012
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#3
Retail console releases in the March NPD period:

1) South Park: The Stick of Truth (Ubisoft) (360 / PS3 / PC)
March 4th - April 5th Tracking Period (33 days)

2) Dark Souls 2 (Bandai Namco) (360 / PS3)
March 11th - April 5th Tracking Period (26 days)

3) Titanfall (Electronic Arts) (XB1 / PC)
March 11th - April 5th Tracking Period (26 days)

4) Atelier Escha & Logy: Alchemist of Dusk Sky (Koei Tecmo) (PS3)
March 11th - April 5th Tracking Period (26 days)

5) Yoshi's New Island (Nintendo) (3DS)
March 14th - April 5th Tracking Period (23 days)

6) Final Fantasy X / X-2 HD Remaster (Square Enix) (PS3 / PSV)
March 18th - April 5th Tracking Period (19 days)

7) Metal Gear Solid V: Ground Zeroes (Konami) (PS4 / XB1 / PS3 / 360)
March 18th - April 5th Tracking Period (19 days)

8) Yaiba: Ninja Gaiden Z (Koei Tecmo) (360 / PS3 / PC)
March 18th - April 5th Tracking Period (19 days)

9) Infamous: Second Son (Sony Computer Entertainment) (PS4)
March 21st - April 5th Tracking Period (16 days)

10) Caleba's Big Game Hunter: Pro Hunts (Activision) (360 / PS3 / WIU / PC)
March 25th - April 5th Tracking Period (12 days)

11) BlazBlue: Chrono Phantasma (Aksys Games) (PS3)
March 25th - April 5th Tracking Period (12 days)

12) The Witch and the Hundred Knight (NIS America) (PS3)
March 25th - April 5th Tracking Period (12 days)

13) Dynasty Warriors 8: Xtreme Legends Complete Edition (Koei Tecmo) (PS4 / PS3 / PSV)
March 25th - April 5th Tracking Period (12 days)

14) Deception IV: Blood Ties (Koei Tecmo) (PS3 / PSV)
March 25th - April 5th Tracking Period (12 days)

15) Cut the Rope: Triple Treat (Activision) (3DS)
March 25th - April 5th Tracking Period (12 days)

16) MLB 14: The Show (Sony Computer Entertainment) (PS3 / PSV)
April 1st - April 5th Tracking Period (5 days)

17) Ragnarok Odyssey Ace (XSEED Games) (PS3 / PSV)
April 1st - April 5th Tracking Period (5 days)



So far there has been a slowly growing discrepancy between PS4 and XBO sales:


LTD as of November 2013:

1) Wii U - 1.62 million (+0.48 million from PS4, +0.71 million from XBO)
2) PS4 - 1.14 million (+0.23 million from XBO)
3) XBO - 0.91 million


LTD as of December 2013:

1) Wii U - 2.10 million (+0.10 million from PS4, +0.28 million from XBO)
2) PS4 - 2.00 million (+0.18 million from XBO)
3) XBO - 1.82 million


LTD as of January 2014:

1) PS4 - 2.27 million (+0.12 million from Wii U, +0.31 million from XBO)
2) Wii U - 2.15 million (+0.19 million from XBO)
3) XBO - 1.96 million


LTD as of February 2014:

1) PS4 - 2.54 million (+0.31 million from Wii U, +0.32 million from XBO)
2) Wii U - 2.23 million (+0.01 million from XBO)
3) XBO - 2.22 million


Distilling the above information:

November: PS4 was +0.23 million from XBO
December: PS4 was +0.18 million from XBO
January: PS4 was +0.31 million from XBO
February: PS4 was +0.32 million from XBO


The quantifiable 0.2-0.3 million wedge between the two is the result of PS4's better PR, $100 lower prices, and greater power.

But I'm looking forward to seeing that wedge diminish with Titanfall in the March NPD period. I don't expect Sony's Infamous: Second Son to perform nearly as well as Titanfall will, but I don't expect a >300K discrepancy this month that would leapfrog Xbox One over PS4 once more.
 
Aug 25, 2013
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#8
So this is the month the Wii U officially falls into last place in the USA.

also, March 2013, for reference (also 5 weeks too):
360 - 261K
3DS - 230K
PS3 - 211K
Wii - 91K
NDS - 86K
Wii U - 67K
PSV - 33K
PSP - 8K
 
Apr 18, 2005
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#10
But I'm looking forward to seeing that wedge diminish with Titanfall in the March NPD period. I don't expect Sony's Infamous: Second Son to perform nearly as well as Titanfall will, but I don't expect a >300K discrepancy this month that would leapfrog Xbox One over PS4 once more.
Yeah, Infamous wasn't a huge seller on PS3, so the sequel shouldn't have as much impact as Titanfall potentially will. Its position as the seemingly first big exclusive title for PS4 should help it and PS4 some, though. PS4 supply also seems to have stabilized in the U.S. by the end of the month. That may provide a bump for PS4, in addition to any software driven increase.
 
Mar 20, 2007
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#14
Almost guaranteed regardless. Wii U is only ~0.01 million behind Xbox One, so considering its 2014 performance, Xbox One will soon leave it in the dust.
Yep, very true but it having a major game release pushes it from "almost guaranteed" to "inevitable".

The latter would have probably been a better reply.

Edit: Seems like there will continue to be around a 300K gap between overall PS4 and Xbox One sales in North America until the Fall (major game releases and possible price drops). Fall is going to be very interesting.
 
Jan 2, 2013
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#16
I've never done one of these before, but fuck it:

[360] 160k
[3DS] 140k
[PS3] 130k
[PS4] 450k
[WIU] 55k
[XB1] 600k

I expect the current gen consoles to be up due to South Park and DS2, although not by a large amount given how they've fallen off lately. Nothing of note came out on the WiiU this month, so I expect a pretty sharp deterioration given how it has extra competition compared to last March. No big releases on the 3DS either, so I see a drop for that as well.

The most interesting part, of course, is the Xone/PS4 dynamic.

Titanfall has been hyped and promoted like nobody's business. All the local Gamestops have plastered it on their front windows, it's had plenty of presence on both retail and news sites, and they did the free bundle here like they did in the UK. But the PS4 was frontloaded with stock last month in a way that we simply hadn't seen since launch; between that and Second Son, I don't expect it to get completely trounced.

At any rate, we'll see what happens.
 
Apr 18, 2005
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#17
Yep, very true but it having a major game release pushes it from "almost guaranteed" to "inevitable".

The latter would have probably been a better reply.
"Inevitable" always makes me thing of Agent Smith. Sort of like how "inconceivable" makes me think of ... (I don't need to say it, right? :p ).
 
Jan 8, 2012
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#20
I think the PS4 sells more than Xbox One this month by a small margin. They seem to be a lot more PS4 in stock this month (Amazon and retailers) and those sell pretty fast.
 
Mar 17, 2014
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#21
here is me prediction for march.
will be 90% accurate ofc
or maybe not

Software:
1. Titanfall (and will be fist in april, too)
2. South Park: The Stick of Truth
3. Call of Duty: Ghosts
4. Infamous: Second Son

not sure, about the rest. hard to make a guess.


Hardware:
[XB1] 525k
[PS4] 375k
[360] 135k
[PS3] 115k
[WIU] 89k
[3DS] 189k
 
Dec 23, 2008
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#23
It's pretty much a given that XB1 will sell more than the PS4 but if the PS4 sells more than the XB1 I think MS has a problem and will need to think about officially lowering the price of the XB1.
 
Oct 12, 2007
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Detroit
#28
][PS4] 345K
[XB1] 560K
[3DS] 106K
[360] 80K
[PS3] 65K
[WIU] 70K

Can't imagine with price cuts, discount and Titanfall and in its best market xb1 won't kill ps4. But this won't last long unless a permanent price cut
 
Mar 20, 2007
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#30
It's pretty much a given that XB1 will sell more than the PS4 but if the PS4 sells more than the XB1 I think MS has a problem and will need to think about officially lowering the price of the XB1.
It would be embarrassing for MS if the Xbox One doesn't do better than the PS4 for March NPD.
 
Aug 5, 2012
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#36
[PS4] 433K
[XB1] 415K
[3DS] 155K
[360] 95K
[PS3] 65K
[WIU] 100K

Gonna be a close one, but I'm going to give the nod to PS4 for the month. Increased shipments to the US with the release of Second Son and Ground Zeroes performing well for the PS4 SKU, I can see it possibly happening. For MS's sake, let's hope I'm wrong.
 

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Aug 20, 2012
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#38
Its going to be a good month for next gen, as you will see another uptick in sales for both. XB1 to win the month

It seems PS4 is finally readily available, it will be interesting to see what that means. The weird difference between Jan and Feb for XB1 is hard to explain, but even in Feb, people were gearing up for TF, and beta was out i believe by that point.


[PS4] 390k
[XB1] 435k
[360] 71k
[3DS] 180k
[Vita] 29k
[PS3] 60k
[WiiU] 110k
 
May 31, 2013
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#39
The weird difference between Jan and Feb for XB1 is hard to explain, but even in Feb, people were gearing up for TF, and beta was out i believe by that point.
The differences between Jan and Feb were across the board sans the PS4 which I would assume might've been badly impacted in Feb by stock shortages

Code:
Platform: Jan Results -> Feb Results | Percentage Change MOM

PS4: 271K -> ~269K | [-.7%]
XB1: 141K -> 258K | [+83%]
3DS: ~97K -> ~151K - 156K | [+56% - +61%]
PS3: ~53.5K -> ~103K | [+92.5%]
Wii U: 49K -> 82.5K | [+68%]
360: ~48.5K -> 114K | [+135%]
Vita: <17K -> ~24K | [+41%]
Average Percentage Change MOM is +68% up from January, median is also +68% oddly enough

What in gods name happened in January? The numbers make it look like sales collapsed only for that month at this point. It's really odd.
 

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Aug 20, 2012
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#40
The differences between Jan and Feb were across the board sans the PS4 which I would assume might've been badly impacted in Feb by stock shortages
Interesting

I thought XB1 was the only one that saw that big increase. I was wrong

Seems the PS4 is finally available, so there is a slim chance it could see a uptick. If that happens, then i dont know if XB1 will ever win a monthly NPD. TF is the biggest game of the year for them unless Halo comes out this year (the game, not the tv show)
 
May 13, 2013
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#42
Ah, I was waiting for this thread.

[360] 125,000
[3DS] 109,000
[PS3]113,000
[PS4] 408,000
[WIU] 102,000
[XB1] 516,000

Ideas behind sales numbers:

Xbox One
NPD results were for five weeks (unlike February's 4 weeks) - which puts it around 330K already. Additionally, March saw the launch of the heavily-hyped Titanfall as well as several price cuts. Prices as low as $399 were reported.
I expect the combination of Titanfall and pricedrops to cause a natural 60% increase in sales over the entire sale-tracking period, which puts it at 516K.

PS4
With the Japan launch behind us and PS4 back in full production (after a short break because of a Chinese holiday). My calculations have shown that Sony actually shipped 285K units to the US last month, slightly below the suggested 286.7K sold (which means: I believe last month's PS4 sales figure has been estimated slightly too high).
With inFAMOUS: Second Son, as well as continued demand, Sony likely shipped 100,000 to 150,000 additional PS4s compared to last month.
Sony will also profit from a small number of sales by customers who were looking forward to Titanfall, only realizing afterwards that Titanfall is not on PS4.

Wii U
Hooray, Nintendo will sell 100,000+ Wii Us - but only just. Nintendo, just like Sony, will also profit from a small number of sales by customers who were looking forward to Titanfall, only realizing afterwards that Titanfall is not on Wii U.

PS3/3DS/X360
Estimates based on very little information.
 
Mar 27, 2007
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#43
Its going to be a good month for next gen, as you will see another uptick in sales for both. XB1 to win the month

It seems PS4 is finally readily available, it will be interesting to see what that means. The weird difference between Jan and Feb for XB1 is hard to explain, but even in Feb, people were gearing up for TF, and beta was out i believe by that point.
I think the "snowpocalypse" in January probably had a pretty big impact on sales.
 
Feb 11, 2010
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#47
I truly think it's going to be a tossup whether Xbox One or PS4 comes out ahead... Infamous seemed to have a bigger impact on sales than I would have guessed (going by anecdotal evidence of friends/colleagues).

[360] 134K
[3DS] 85K
[PS3] 118K
[PS4] 443K
[WIU] 96K
[XB1] 467K
 
Oct 28, 2013
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#49
Interesting to see so many have taken Titanfall's success as an inevitability, despite the silence from EA and MS. I couldn't even hazard a guess as to the numbers for this month, but looking at the reasons for why people put some consoles above others is always interesting.
 
Oct 17, 2013
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#50
Interesting to see so many have taken Titanfall's success as an inevitability, despite the silence from EA and MS. I couldn't even hazard a guess as to the numbers for this month, but looking at the reasons for why people put some consoles above others is always interesting.
Well Titanfall did have a pretty good showing on Amazon's best seller list (I know I know). But yes I do believe overall TF did not have the effect MS intended, hence their silence on sales.

I don't care much for the sales of the other consoles, but my prediction for PS4 and XB1 numbers are:

PS4: 450k
XB1: 390k