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Mask Efficacy |OT| Wuhan!! Got You All In Check

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arkhamguy123

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The quick and dirty way to use the sorcery of the internet to summon information:
  1. Google "long covid"
  2. Click "News"
You can even use the 'Tools' menu to narrow down the search to articles released this past week. You'll get everything from physicians sharing their own experiences with long COVID to the AAMC, to articles from more general news sites.
I ask you a very simple question in a very civil way and you come back with a condescending smart ass response. Which is even worse since I did exactly that before I even replied to you, and again after this response here, and turned up nothing about any increase in prevalence. It seems like you just threw that out and didn't think anyone would dispute you on it.
 

FireFly

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So where does halting the vaccination campaign fall into all this, as that guy was trying to argue?
Ok, so I did some more reading and it looks like the core premise of Geert Vanden Bossche's argument about stopping vaccination is actually incorrect, since by reducing the incidence of the virus in the population, we will also be reducing the chance of future mutations.


So we should care about the spread of variants, but that doesn't give us a reason to stop vaccination.
 

Zefah

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Anti-vaxxers are spreading bullshit in US and UK federal databases:
"VAERS and Yellow Card databases show unverified reports of COVID-19 vaccine-related side effects and deaths that can be submitted by anyone, according to the CDC and fact checkers" https://twitter.com/i/events/1372684507426394114?s=09

Well, is there a verification process? How does it work?

Also I saw this link and got a chuckle:


Imagine writing this headline with a straight face and publishing it as a "Fact Check."

"Deaths after vaccination don’t prove that COVID-19 vaccine is lethal"​

But remember, all deaths coded as COVID are definitely due to COVID. Nothing to see here. No room for discussion.

I ask you a very simple question in a very civil way and you come back with a condescending smart ass response. Which is even worse since I did exactly that before I even replied to you, and again after this response here, and turned up nothing about any increase in prevalence. It seems like you just threw that out and didn't think anyone would dispute you on it.

To be fair, you've been around for a while. You should have known what to expect by engaging with him at all.
 
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BadBurger

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A science and global health reporter consults numerous experts (including Dr. Fauci) on why reaching herd immunity in the US may not be achievable for some time. The transcript isn't up yet probably because it's the weekend, but they typically appear a day or two after publication of the podcast.
 

ManaByte

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A science and global health reporter consults numerous experts (including Dr. Fauci) on why reaching herd immunity in the US may not be achievable for some time. The transcript isn't up yet probably because it's the weekend, but they typically appear a day or two after publication of the podcast.

Despite places like LA having zero to single digit deaths and no COVID cases in major hospitals, you gotta keep people under control as long as possible.
 
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BadBurger

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Despite places like LA having zero to single digit deaths and no COVID cases in major hospitals, you gotta keep people under control as long as possible.

It's in regards to herd immunity, so the discussion involves the increased contagiousness of the mutations / variants, environments becoming more favorable for variants developing, the lasting effectiveness of natural immunity gained via past infection, and vaccination hesitancy. Not public health measures such as lockdowns and masking.

She actually uses L.A. as an analogy, as vaccine hesitancy towards the measles virus in that particular community (their comparatively large pop of anti vaxxers) has led to measles outbreaks even in the current era. The same is true of the orthodox Jewish communities in New York. The same kinds of flareups could happen with COVID for the foreseeable future if so many people maintain hesitancy.
 

ManaByte

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She actually uses L.A. as an analogy, as vaccine hesitancy towards the measles virus in that particular community (their comparatively large pop of anti vaxxers) has led to measles outbreaks even in the current era.

Measels =/= COVID

 

BadBurger

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Measels =/= COVID

Yea, they of course don't imply that. But hesitancy towards the measles vaccine there and therefore continued outbreaks of it is analogous to what could happen anywhere COVID vaccine hesitancy remains high.
 

SF Kosmo

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Imagine writing this headline with a straight face and publishing it as a "Fact Check."

"Deaths after vaccination don’t prove that COVID-19 vaccine is lethal"​

Seriously? You think if you get hit by a car after taking the Covid vaccine it's the vaccine's fault? Any death after taking the vaccine is attributable to the shot?

People have been reporting all post-vavcine deaths as if they're somehow connected to the vaccine. The shot doesn't make you immortal, it just keeps you from dying of Covid. Especially early on when. A lot of the vaccine recipients were people in nursing homes, a certain number of the are gonna die, it doesn't mean it's a reaction to the vaccine.
 
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SF Kosmo

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Despite places like LA having zero to single digit deaths and no COVID cases in major hospitals, you gotta keep people under control as long as possible.
In fairness, a lot of places hit early in the pandemic like New York had near zero cases from like July-October last year, and it still came back with a vengeance after that. We can't assume vaccine-based herd immunity just because the numbers are low right now, particularly if they had already been sliding down the curve at the start of the vaccination push.

I am an optimist about vaccines getting us to a level of herd immunity that we can resume normal life, but it might be 1-2 months out. The admin has been pushing for 4th of July as a kind of national reopening and I get that.

India's numbers were real fucking low, and they declared victory bad look what happened. So taking time to make sure our vaccine numbers are up isn't crazy.
 
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Gp1

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Dammit India...

edit:
Great. Now this is borderline "the last of us"

 
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llien

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Imagine writing this headline with a straight face and publishing it as a "Fact Check."
Well, if you give something, doesn't matter what, could be just water, to millions of people, some are still going to die, so just dying after taking something doesn't prove one died from something (people get all kinds of shit occasionally, right)

Wording of the title is unfortunate, but the statement is true.
 

Zefah

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Seriously? You think if you get hit by a car after taking the Covid vaccine it's the vaccine's fault? Any death after taking the vaccine is attributable to the shot?

Oh, really? Please link me to the VAERS report that blamed the vaccine after someone died from getting hit by a car. Of course not any death that happens after taking the vaccine is attributable to the vaccine, but this is clearly a smear job to cast doubt on any and all reports of potential adverse effects of the various vaccines. It's transparently driven by an agenda to portray the vaccines as nothing but safe and to not allow for any doubt to be cast upon them. It's suppression in the form of professional "debunking" and I say this as someone who firmly believes that anyone who feels they are at elevated risk should go and get the vaccine if only to obtain peace of mind that allows them to live their lives again.

A lot of the vaccine recipients were people in nursing homes, a certain number of the are gonna die, it doesn't mean it's a reaction to the vaccine.

Yeah, just like a lot of old people who got COVID were probably going to die anyway. Doesn't mean they died of COVID!

Well, if you give something, doesn't matter what, could be just water, to millions of people, some are still going to die, so just dying after taking something doesn't prove one died from something (people get all kinds of shit occasionally, right)

Wording of the title is unfortunate, but the statement is true.

Of course it doesn't prove anything, but the problem here is that we have a certain segment of the media establishment rushing to discredit these reports out of hand without evaluating the veracity of any individual claim. It's a coordinated attack on anything that might put a seed of doubt in someone's mind about the iron-clad safety of any of the vaccines and that should be disturbing to any reasonable person in my opinion.
 
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SF Kosmo

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Oh, really? Please link me to the VAERS report that blamed the vaccine after someone died from getting hit by a car. Of course not any death that happens after taking the vaccine is attributable to the vaccine, but this is clearly a smear job to cast doubt on any and all reports of potential adverse effects of the various vaccines. It's transparently driven by an agenda to portray the vaccines as nothing but safe and to not allow for any doubt to be cast upon them. It's suppression in the form of professional "debunking" and I say this as someone who firmly believes that anyone who feels they are at elevated risk should go and get the vaccine if only to obtain peace of mind that allows them to live their lives again.
This argument kind of falls apart after the recent J&J thing where they suspended the vaccine over six incidents of VITT reported in VAERS. Clearly they do investigate these things and treat them very seriously even when they are very rare.

That doesn't mean that every person who does at any point after getting the vaccine has died Because of the vaccine.

Yeah, just like a lot of old people who got COVID were probably going to die anyway. Doesn't mean they died of COVID!
It turns out 100% of people who get Covid would have eventually died anyway.

But excess death stats disprove the notion Covid deaths were being over counted in the way you're implying. If there was a lot.of that the increase in excess death would be way less that the Covid death tally and they're actually pretty close, so...
 
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FireFly

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Of course it doesn't prove anything, but the problem here is that we have a certain segment of the media establishment rushing to discredit these reports out of hand without evaluating the veracity of any individual claim. It's a coordinated attack on anything that might put a seed of doubt in someone's mind about the iron-clad safety of any of the vaccines and that should be disturbing to any reasonable person in my opinion.
I think the point is that you can't determine whether the vaccine is contributing to deaths based on individual claims. You need a large quantity of collective claims, or data. And you need some kind of control group. And the people equipped to make this kind of analysis are statisticians, not ordinary members of the public.

So if there was a peer reviewed analysis of the pattern of deaths pointing to the vaccine as a causal factor (like there have already been with the blood clots), and if the fact checking website said "yes, but this doesn't prove anything", you would have a strong point.
 
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12Goblins

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really thought provoking stuff in here

wonder if anybody has thought of this before
 
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CloudNull

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I think the point is that you can't determine whether the vaccine is contributing to deaths based on individual claims. You need a large quantity of collective claims, or data. And you need some kind of control group. And the people equipped to make this kind of analysis are statisticians, not ordinary members of the public.

So if there was a peer reviewed analysis of the pattern of deaths pointing to the vaccine as a causal factor (like there have already been with the blood clots), and if the fact checking website said "yes, but this doesn't prove anything", you would have a strong point.
There is a lot of mounting evidence that their are adverse effects. The media is spinning it that it is bad actors who are blowing up the database.

At this point there is no way to know what is true. If it was happening and they didn’t want to create a panic then this is exactly what they would say. If there were people trying to make people skeptical about asking the vaccine the bombarding the database with bogus claims would be a real viable path.

Once again we’re stuck in place we’re there is no way to know what is noise and what is the truth.
 

FireFly

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There is a lot of mounting evidence that their are adverse effects. The media is spinning it that it is bad actors who are blowing up the database.

At this point there is no way to know what is true. If it was happening and they didn’t want to create a panic then this is exactly what they would say. If there were people trying to make people skeptical about asking the vaccine the bombarding the database with bogus claims would be a real viable path.

Once again we’re stuck in place we’re there is no way to know what is noise and what is the truth.
It looks like VAERS intended more as an early warning system than anything that can determine causal factors.

"VAERS scientists look for unusually high numbers of reports of an adverse event after a particular vaccine or a new pattern of adverse events. If scientists see either of these situations, focused studies in other systems are done to determine if the adverse event is or is not a side effect of the vaccine."

 

CloudNull

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It looks like VAERS intended more as an early warning system than anything that can determine causal factors.

"VAERS scientists look for unusually high numbers of reports of an adverse event after a particular vaccine or a new pattern of adverse events. If scientists see either of these situations, focused studies in other systems are done to determine if the adverse event is or is not a side effect of the vaccine."

Like the EMA reviewing reports of heart inflammation, rare nerve disorder after Pfizer and AstZeneca shots? This was announced today.

It is still early but a lot of people like to bury their head and pretend this is not a possible outcome. Currently we need more information and hopefully it is all nothing but certain places make the discussion of this taboo. It is weird to live in a time were the mere mention of hesitancy causes you to be given the Scarlet Letter.
 

SF Kosmo

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It looks like VAERS intended more as an early warning system than anything that can determine causal factors.
Correct. John Oliver showed a VAERS report saying the shot turned them into the hulk, which was accepted and left up.

They do follow up on these things but that's not what VAERS is.
 

FireFly

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Like the EMA reviewing reports of heart inflammation, rare nerve disorder after Pfizer and AstZeneca shots? This was announced today.

It is still early but a lot of people like to bury their head and pretend this is not a possible outcome. Currently we need more information and hopefully it is all nothing but certain places make the discussion of this taboo. It is weird to live in a time were the mere mention of hesitancy causes you to be given the Scarlet Letter.
I think that happens because no one wants the title of being anti-vaccine, even if you really are anti-vaccine. So, everything starts with "I'm not anti-vaccine, but..."

And then to counter this everyone jumps on you when you utter those words. But I think there is a huge difference between posting a bunch of unverified reports as "proof" and posting the guidance of actual regulators. We already have a strong reason to believe there is a causal link between the AstraZenica vaccine and blood clots, such that even in the UK, people under 40 are being given a choice of vaccine. So it would be crazy to think there couldn't be some either side effect. But we need to wait for the result of the analyses first.
 
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Game Analyst

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Sky News Australia: Chinese document discussing weaponising coronaviruses provides 'chilling' information (May 9, 2021)

Sky News host Sharri Markson has assessed "chilling" details from a document produced by Chinese military scientists, in which they discussed weaponising SARS coronaviruses five years before the COVID-19 pandemic hit.

Ms Markson said the book was written by People's Liberation Army scientists and senior Chinese public health officials in 2015.

The documents describe SARS coronaviruses as heralding a “new era of genetic weapons” and said they can be "artificially manipulated into an emerging human - disease virus, then weaponised and unleashed in a way never seen before".

The Chinese-language paper is called 'The Unnatural Origin of SARS and New Species of Man-Made Viruses as Genetic Bioweapons'.

“The document also talks about the psychological terror that bioweapons can cause, it's chilling,” Ms Markson said.

“To be clear ... while intelligence agencies suspect, and they've been investigating this since early last year, that COVID-19 may be the result of an accidental leak from a Wuhan lab, there is no suggestion it was an intentional release.

“The significance of this paper is that it offers a rare insight into how senior scientists at one of the PLA's most prominent military universities, where high levels of defence research were conducted, were thinking about biological research.”

 

arkhamguy123

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The lab theory. Personally I don't rule it out. I think those that jump to call others conspiracy nuts are a little hasty. The one big reason why I actually don't want to accept it is because of the possibility that all of this death and isolation and depression and devastation, was the result of a fucking freak accident across the globe. That's like some "The Killing Joke" Joker life philosophy right there. It's all random chaotic suffering.
 
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Sejan

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In fairness, a lot of places hit early in the pandemic like New York had near zero cases from like July-October last year, and it still came back with a vengeance after that. We can't assume vaccine-based herd immunity just because the numbers are low right now, particularly if they had already been sliding down the curve at the start of the vaccination push.

I am an optimist about vaccines getting us to a level of herd immunity that we can resume normal life, but it might be 1-2 months out. The admin has been pushing for 4th of July as a kind of national reopening and I get that.

India's numbers were real fucking low, and they declared victory bad look what happened. So taking time to make sure our vaccine numbers are up isn't crazy.
The problem with this statement is that the world will never get back to normal with that line of thinking. Vaccines are our only chance of conquering this. We have 3 choices here:

1. Go back to normal trusting the effectiveness of vaccines.
2. Go back to normal accepting that vaccines may never be as effective as we’d like.
3. Live the rest of our lives under COVID lockdown with no sign of relief in sight.

Pandemics like this don’t end when the virus Is eradicated. They end when life returns to normal regardless of the state of the disease.
 
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SF Kosmo

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The problem with this statement is that the world will never get back to normal with that line of thinking. Vaccines are our only chance of conquering this. We have 3 choices here:

1. Go back to normal trusting the effectiveness of vaccines.
2. Go back to normal accepting that vaccines may never be as effective as we’d like.
3. Live the rest of our lives under COVID lockdown with no sign of relief in sight.

Pandemics like this don’t end when the virus Is eradicated. They end when life returns to normal regardless of the state of the disease.
It's not a matter of if, it's just a matter of when. If we believe that vaccine numbers will approach the levels we need in the near future, then getting there first seems smart.
 

Sejan

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It's not a matter of if, it's just a matter of when. If we believe that vaccine numbers will approach the levels we need in the near future, then getting there first seems smart.
It’s a virus that is mutating at a rate that strongly suggests annual vaccines will be necessary and some are suggesting that the vaccine effectiveness drops starting in the 6th month. By the time we “get there,” we’ll have to essentially restart the entire process. We will never “get there” as “there” is a goalpost that is constantly being pushed back by a mutating virus. At some point states have to decide that now is good enough and we will continue pushing forward after we are reopened.

I’m not anti-vaccine by any means; I have my 2nd shot appointment for next week and you can see my first dose post several pages back. I believe that this vaccine push shows the strength of modern medicine, but there simply isn’t any way to reach full or near full vaccination levels in the US before the effectiveness of the vaccine begins to wane.
 

SF Kosmo

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It’s a virus that is mutating at a rate that strongly suggests annual vaccines will be necessary and some are suggesting that the vaccine effectiveness drops starting in the 6th month. By the time we “get there,” we’ll have to essentially restart the entire process. We will never “get there” as “there” is a goalpost that is constantly being pushed back by a mutating virus. At some point states have to decide that now is good enough and we will continue pushing forward after we are reopened.

I’m not anti-vaccine by any means; I have my 2nd shot appointment for next week and you can see my first dose post several pages back. I believe that this vaccine push shows the strength of modern medicine, but there simply isn’t any way to reach full or near full vaccination levels in the US before the effectiveness of the vaccine begins to wane.

There really isn't any good data on long term immunity. They think antibody levels might dip after 6 months but that's not the entirety of immunity. They're preparing for the reality of annual boosters but that isn't necessarily because the shot won't protect you for a few years, we don't know that yet.

I hear what you're saying, but "where does it end" isn't a good counterargument if we're setting clear and reasonable goals.
 

Sejan

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There really isn't any good data on long term immunity. They think antibody levels might dip after 6 months but that's not the entirety of immunity. They're preparing for the reality of annual boosters but that isn't necessarily because the shot won't protect you for a few years, we don't know that yet.

I hear what you're saying, but "where does it end" isn't a good counterargument if we're setting clear and reasonable goals.
The problem here isn’t even the dipping effectiveness of the shot. We are constantly being told that this vaccine is less effective against the UK variant, or the South African, or Indian variant. I think I heard that the AZ shot is something like 20% effective against one of the variants and the Chinese vaccine may only be 50-60% effective in the first place. Every new varient puts us further behind in the race to these clear goals. I’m arguing that these goals are reasonable in the first place. There will be new variants every few months and each of them is a step hibachi for these goals. At some point, we have to accept that covid is here to stay and that no vaccination program is going to provide a solution.

My answer is to make the best vaccines available and trust people to make the best choices for them. We need to stop trying to act like eradication is even a possibility. The only road forward for covid is to adapt to the new reality of life.
Bold claim. How do you know this?
If we assume that the effectiveness of the vaccine begins to wane after 6 months, then that starts to put the first people to be vaccinated in that category by mid June. With this in mind, I may be up for a booster shot as soon as mid October.

I’m not saying that vaccinated people suddenly lose all immunity after 6 months on the dot, but between declining effectiveness and lower effectiveness against variants, we are at best fighting against a target that is constantly moving backwards.

With a high population country, full and effective vaccination is, at best, fleeting.
 

Rentahamster

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If we assume that the effectiveness of the vaccine begins to wane after 6 months, then that starts to put the first people to be vaccinated in that category by mid June. With this in mind, I may be up for a booster shot as soon as mid October.

I’m not saying that vaccinated people suddenly lose all immunity after 6 months on the dot, but between declining effectiveness and lower effectiveness against variants, we are at best fighting against a target that is constantly moving backwards.

With a high population country, full and effective vaccination is, at best, fleeting.
1. What justifies an assumption of a 6 month window of effectiveness?
2. How do you know we can't ramp up research and production even more?
 

Zefah

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2. How do you know we can't ramp up research and production even more?

The problem is getting enough people vaccinated on a global level within a narrow window. It's probably simply impossible.

We're all just speculating on effectiveness and variant mutation speed, of course. All will be clear within a year or so, I guess.
 

Sejan

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1. What justifies an assumption of a 6 month window of effectiveness?
2. How do you know we can't ramp up research and production even more?
There are at least 8 known variants at this point with some ranging as much as 161% more transmissive than the first known strain (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2). Half of them are believed to be at least somewhat resistant to a preexisting immunization. This is in little more than a year. I’m describing a 6 month window as a bit of a worst case scenario. This is a timeframe that the US government has offered as a point that vaccine effectiveness begins to decrease. My point is that between decreasing effectiveness and the introduction of new variants, herd immunity in any form is simply impossible. Permanent, nationwide immunity is a fleeting goal that cannot realistically be achieved in a country with a large population. We are going to live with some form of covid for the rest of our lives. We need to move away from treating this as a disease that can be eradicated and move towards living in spite of it.

The damage that covid has done to our communities far exceeds a death toll. Continuing to keep schools shut down, for example, will cause irreversible damage to our children’s educations. This damage will be particularly bad to students students that are already disadvantaged because of poverty. Many students will never recover from a lost year of schooling. Keeping things shut down in the hope of killing covid is simply irresponsible.

As far as additional research, it would be my assumption that it would continue. New vaccines likely don’t need to be developed as much as current vaccines will be updated in much the same way that the flu vaccine is handled. Production will probably be reduced if anything. Once the government starts demanding annual booster shots! I believe vaccine participation will decrease over time. Just compare it to how many people skip their annual flu shot.
 
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Raven117

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It’s a virus that is mutating at a rate that strongly suggests annual vaccines will be necessary and some are suggesting that the vaccine effectiveness drops starting in the 6th month. By the time we “get there,” we’ll have to essentially restart the entire process. We will never “get there” as “there” is a goalpost that is constantly being pushed back by a mutating virus. At some point states have to decide that now is good enough and we will continue pushing forward after we are reopened.

I’m not anti-vaccine by any means; I have my 2nd shot appointment for next week and you can see my first dose post several pages back. I believe that this vaccine push shows the strength of modern medicine, but there simply isn’t any way to reach full or near full vaccination levels in the US before the effectiveness of the vaccine begins to wane.
Way too early for this fear porn.

Even if we need boosters every year or in the fall, the systems are in place to be able to walk into any cvs and get your shot.

At risk folks at the front of the line. Other than that, open it up. We are done with this.
 
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Rentahamster

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The problem is getting enough people vaccinated on a global level within a narrow window. It's probably simply impossible.

We're all just speculating on effectiveness and variant mutation speed, of course. All will be clear within a year or so, I guess.
Sejan Sejan 's claims sound pretty confident and declarative for mere speculation.
 

Rentahamster

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I’m describing a 6 month window as a bit of a worst case scenario. This is a timeframe that the US government has offered as a point that vaccine effectiveness begins to decrease.
They did? I don't recall seeing anything like that, unless you can link something.
My point is that between decreasing effectiveness and the introduction of new variants, herd immunity in any form is simply impossible. Permanent, nationwide immunity is a fleeting goal that cannot realistically be achieved in a country with a large population.
That's why I asked if you think we're at our max capacity of production. If so, we can't make any more than we currently are, and demand will always exceed supply. However, I find that unlikely because there's no reason we can't build more factories or repurposed existing factories for vaccine production.
The damage that covid has done to our communities far exceeds a death toll. Continuing to keep schools shut down, for example, will cause irreversible damage to our children’s educations. This damage will be particularly bad to students students that are already disadvantaged because of poverty. Many students will never recover from a lost year of schooling. Keeping things shut down in the hope of killing covid is simply irresponsible.
Okay but that's irrelevant to whether or not we can or can't reach full vaccination levels before their immunity effectiveness starts to wane.
As far as additional research, it would be my assumption that it would continue. New vaccines likely don’t need to be developed as much as current vaccines will be updated in much the same way that the flu vaccine is handled. Production will probably be reduced if anything. Once the government starts demanding annual booster shots! I believe vaccine participation will decrease over time. Just compare it to how many people skip their annual flu shot.
Does this mean that your "we can't achieve full vaccination levels" claim is not necessarily because we can't make enough, but because too many people will opt out of it?
 

Sejan

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They did? I don't recall seeing anything like that, unless you can link something.

That's why I asked if you think we're at our max capacity of production. If so, we can't make any more than we currently are, and demand will always exceed supply. However, I find that unlikely because there's no reason we can't build more factories or repurposed existing factories for vaccine production.

Okay but that's irrelevant to whether or not we can or can't reach full vaccination levels before their immunity effectiveness starts to wane.

Does this mean that your "we can't achieve full vaccination levels" claim is not necessarily because we can't make enough, but because too many people will opt out of it?
In June of last year, Fauci suggested it might not last very long (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/02/dr-...e-may-not-provide-immunity-for-very-long.html). While the current data is looking positive on this front, there has still been a decrease in effectiveness after 6 months with the effectiveness being likely lower in many variants. As an example, the AZ vaccine is ineffective against the South African variant. “The B.1.351 variant is more troublesome. Studies have shown that the AstraZeneca vaccine was 86 times less effective against this variant, which was first detected in South Africa.” (https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covi...-do-covid-vaccines-stand-against-the-variants). The mRNA vaccines are better, but still struggle against this variant at 6-8 times less effective against this particular variant.

Earlier, I referenced 8 variants while webmd references 15 variants with only one of them showing to have only minimal evasiveness to vaccination with the rest being higher or still under investigation.

We will simply have to live with covid in some form or fashion from now on. Even Fauci is saying that we are looking at seasonal mask wearing from now on (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/09/fau...uld-become-seasonal-after-covid-pandemic.html).

We need to accept covid is a thing and open schools. We need to accept that it’s ok to not wear face masks indoors around vaccinated people. We need to allow businesses to open and employ people. We need to move forward with our lives.
 

FireFly

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In June of last year, Fauci suggested it might not last very long (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/02/dr-...e-may-not-provide-immunity-for-very-long.html). While the current data is looking positive on this front, there has still been a decrease in effectiveness after 6 months with the effectiveness being likely lower in many variants. As an example, the AZ vaccine is ineffective against the South African variant. “The B.1.351 variant is more troublesome. Studies have shown that the AstraZeneca vaccine was 86 times less effective against this variant, which was first detected in South Africa.” (https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covi...-do-covid-vaccines-stand-against-the-variants). The mRNA vaccines are better, but still struggle against this variant at 6-8 times less effective against this particular variant.

They're not 6-8 times less effective in terms of efficacy though, which is what matters. From your own link:

"The mRNA vaccines are 4- to 7-fold less effective against the P.1 variant, which was first discovered in Brazil, but they still appear to be within an important "cushion of protection," particularly after two doses, and should prevent disease, according to Anthony Fauci, MD"

 
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Shubh_C63

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It took us years to eradicate Polio. Given the science has advanced, the logistics are better but still the current vaccines are not a magic wand. Realistically speaking we are years(s) away from eradicating the fear of covid. It could come back again stronger unless scientist keep on fighting it.

Finally got my first dose done. I dare say things in India are still bad but is showing signs of slowing down.
 

Rentahamster

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In June of last year, Fauci suggested it might not last very long (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/02/dr-...e-may-not-provide-immunity-for-very-long.html). While the current data is looking positive on this front, there has still been a decrease in effectiveness after 6 months with the effectiveness being likely lower in many variants. As an example, the AZ vaccine is ineffective against the South African variant. “The B.1.351 variant is more troublesome. Studies have shown that the AstraZeneca vaccine was 86 times less effective against this variant, which was first detected in South Africa.” (https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covi...-do-covid-vaccines-stand-against-the-variants). The mRNA vaccines are better, but still struggle against this variant at 6-8 times less effective against this particular variant.

Earlier, I referenced 8 variants while webmd references 15 variants with only one of them showing to have only minimal evasiveness to vaccination with the rest being higher or still under investigation.
Your source is a quote from Fauci from last year? A lot has changed in a year. There's also many unknowns in your webmd link, and you don't reference any of the stories that say the duration might be as long as a year.


“We only have information for as long as the vaccines have been studied,” said Deborah Fuller, a vaccine researcher at the University of Washington. “We have to study the vaccinated population and start to see, at what point do people become vulnerable again to the virus?”

So far, Pfizer’s ongoing trial indicates the company’s two-dose vaccine remains highly effective for at least six months, and likely longer. People who got Moderna’s vaccine also still had notable levels of virus-fighting antibodies six months after the second required shot.

The South African variant could be a problem, but it's not yet. 6 to 8 times less effective is still effective and still better than zero. Don't scare yourself with stats.

We don't have enough information yet to conclude that we're never reaching full immunization.

We will simply have to live with covid in some form or fashion from now on. Even Fauci is saying that we are looking at seasonal mask wearing from now on (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/09/fau...uld-become-seasonal-after-covid-pandemic.html).

We need to accept covid is a thing and open schools. We need to accept that it’s ok to not wear face masks indoors around vaccinated people. We need to allow businesses to open and employ people. We need to move forward with our lives.
This has nothing to do with what we're talking about. Why bring it up?
 

llien

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It took us years to eradicate Polio. Given the science has advanced, the logistics are better but still the current vaccines are not a magic wand. Realistically speaking we are years(s) away from eradicating the fear of covid. It could come back again stronger unless scientist keep on fighting it.
It is the first time in human history that we got vaccine during a pandemic.
Developing that specific vaccine was also ridiculously easy (having developed mRNA as a concept by that time), it took perhaps a couple of days.

It took long just because testing it took long.

Marburg (Germany) site alone can roll out 1 billion jabs a year. Getting production capacity to "we can vaccinate entire world within 12 month" is quite possible. (even against new strains)

We could eliminate corona family altogether, not just C19.
 
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llien

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A day earlier, the European Commission threw its support behind the Pfizer-BioNTech jab by signing a contract extension for a potential 1.8 billion doses through 2023.

The European Union has opted not to renew an order for AstraZeneca to supply its coronavirus vaccine after June.

The decision comes as French President Emmanuel Macron said the bloc will focus on jabs from other pharmaceutical companies in the future.

Thierry Bretón, the European Internal Market Commissioner, said AstraZeneca's failure to deliver the number of jabs agreed in its contract was "essentially" the reason why the EU had a slower start to its vaccination in the first few months of the year.

The EU says AstraZeneca delivered 29.8 million doses to the EU in the first quarter of the year, with a further 70 million expected in the second quarter.

That compares to the 400 million agreed for the first six months of 2021.



Bretón said he is "absolutely sure" that the supply problems are over and that the EU will end the year with a capacity to produce "more than 3 billion vaccines a year".
 
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i got my 2nd vaccination yesterday!

it was exactly 8 weeks between vaccinations. originally it was meant to be 6 weeks but the location got moved to a different venue so i suppose that was the reason for delay. it feels good to get this whole vaccine out the way for now.

i got the astrazeneca (i'm 29 so really shouldn't have got it apparently). first vaccine never felt it going in and it took ~18 hours for side effects to kick in. i was taking paracetemol every 2 hours and only had a slight headache but my whole body starting aching and i had no energy to do anything but lie in bed. woke up the next day for work and felt much better but still wasn't 100%. by the time i got home i was back to normal. well, for about a week afterwards i had a stuffy/runny/itchy nose. i was either sneezing like crazy or struggling to breathe through my nose.

it's been about 18 hours now since i got the second vaccine. i felt it going in but was fine. my arm started hurting straight away. again been taking paracetemol every 2 hours. i felt extra sleepy this morning and struggled to get out of bed. felt some slight shivers but they are gone now. no headache at the moment. what i'm feeling right now is like i'm doped up on strong painkillers! it's definitely not the paracetemol. i've been on strong painkillers before and this is what it feels like. it's kinda good feeling although i feel a little nauseous. hopefully this is it and i don't end up stuck in bed with no energy again. i'm off work for a week so i can just chill at home and relax anyway :)

edit: ~5 hours later. still a little sick feeling but not feeling doped up anymore. apart from light sickness i feel totally fine! :D
 
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SF Kosmo

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The problem here isn’t even the dipping effectiveness of the shot. We are constantly being told that this vaccine is less effective against the UK variant, or the South African, or Indian variant. I think I heard that the AZ shot is something like 20% effective against one of the variants and the Chinese vaccine may only be 50-60% effective in the first place. Every new varient puts us further behind in the race to these clear goals.
These are different issues though. First of all, not all new variants are a problem for the vaccines first of all. Even though the vaccines are less effective against the UK variant, for example, that's not because of an antibody incompatibility, it's just because that variant is more virulent.

There's, to date, only one mutation that creates a problem for immunity in the sense of needing an updated vaccine, the spike mutation found in the South African variant and others.

So the logistics here are a bit simpler than you're letting on. As we slow the rate of spread and we build more immunity, we'll also slow the emergence of new variants. We actually don't anticipate this will be like the flu, where new variants that evade immunity pop up every few months. Covid mutates much slower, it's just the fact that it's infected so many people that we've seen the amount of mutation we have.

If we assume that the effectiveness of the vaccine begins to wane after 6 months, then that starts to put the first people to be vaccinated in that category by mid June.
Again, I think that's a kind of poor understanding of things. Vaccine immunity probably lasts a couple years, but it might get weaker over time.

They are planning for an annual booster, not semi-annual, you are kind of catastrophising based on "lower antibody levels" rather than actual demonstrated loss of immunity.

We're going to have combined flu/Covid annual boosters starting next year and that's how we'll handle it going forward. It's not as bad as you seem to think.
 

Raven117

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In June of last year, Fauci suggested it might not last very long (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/02/dr-...e-may-not-provide-immunity-for-very-long.html). While the current data is looking positive on this front, there has still been a decrease in effectiveness after 6 months with the effectiveness being likely lower in many variants. As an example, the AZ vaccine is ineffective against the South African variant. “The B.1.351 variant is more troublesome. Studies have shown that the AstraZeneca vaccine was 86 times less effective against this variant, which was first detected in South Africa.” (https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covi...-do-covid-vaccines-stand-against-the-variants). The mRNA vaccines are better, but still struggle against this variant at 6-8 times less effective against this particular variant.

Earlier, I referenced 8 variants while webmd references 15 variants with only one of them showing to have only minimal evasiveness to vaccination with the rest being higher or still under investigation.

We will simply have to live with covid in some form or fashion from now on. Even Fauci is saying that we are looking at seasonal mask wearing from now on (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/09/fau...uld-become-seasonal-after-covid-pandemic.html).

We need to accept covid is a thing and open schools. We need to accept that it’s ok to not wear face masks indoors around vaccinated people. We need to allow businesses to open and employ people. We need to move forward with our lives.
Well, I agree with your conclusion.
 

BadBurger

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These "long COVID" articles and studies are increasingly filling up the health and science sections of my news aggregators. Literally half of all stories just from the past 24 hours.


A new study will be taken to study the effects of the vaccines on people suffering from "long COVID":

Another examining sufferers various symptoms and the effects on the healthcare industry:

And another studying the persistent neurological effects:
https://www.news-medical.net/news/2...urological-problems-during-long-COVID-19.aspx

Another article of a person sharing their experiences with it:

A pharmaceutical company receives approval to conduct the study of a possible treatment for long COVID:
 
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