May 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes June 9th

Apr 18, 2005
18,797
0
0
#1
ITT, predict for the NPD May 2015 retail period (May 3-30, 2015) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, June 9th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: May 3-30, 2015 (4 weeks, April was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: Thursday, June 11th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good              Bad
[XB1] 200K       [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000    [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000     [XB1] - 200000

Potential hardware impacting events in May:
Summary
Slowest.Month.EVAR.


Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

April's Results (estimates)
1. XB1 ~ 187K
2. PS4 ~ 174K
3. 3DS ~ 116K
4. WIU ~ 43K

April 2014 NPD thread
May 2014 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
Sep 2, 2014
16,385
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#8
Witcher: WH and Splatoon, that's it right?

[3DS] 120K
[PS4] 150K
[WIU] 55K
[XB1] 150K

It's hard for me to guess how many people were turned into squids. I'll err on the side of about +10k kids.
 
Mar 20, 2007
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#9
Guessing that MS bringing back the white models will help them take the month again (though not by much).

[3DS] 115K
[PS4] 160K
[WIU] 50K
[XB1] 175K
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
Jun 22, 2004
9,164
5
1,485
cgmr.net
#37
I thought this might be of interest, since it demonstrates the power of a hardware promotion.
Tony Bartel said:
We remain focused on being the premier videogame destination, and we drove 360 basis points of total videogame market share growth during the quarter. We increased our Xbox One and PS4 software share by 420 basis points to 54%, and our new gen hardware share by 260 basis points to 38.5%.

On a combined basis, GameStop sold 46% of all Xbox One and PS4 hardware and software combined during the quarter, up 610 basis points from last year. We continue to gain share in a new cycle that is significantly outpacing previous launches.

The month of April was even more impressive than the quarter, as we captured 47.6% of all software sold. We sold 57% of all Xbox One and PS4 software during the month and nearly half of all the new gen hardware and software combined.

A promotion that we recently ran shows the power of our unique value proposition. During the month of April, we partnered with Microsoft to run a promotion where customers could buy a new Xbox One console for $275 with the trade in of either a PS3 or an Xbox 360 console. We nearly doubled our Xbox One market share during the month, but more importantly, GameStop drove two-thirds of the 63% industry growth that Xbox One experienced during the month. We are providing unprecedented value that is fueling this cycle’s growth.
My emphasis. The whole transcript is interesting. Go read it over at Seeking Alpha.
 
Dec 12, 2013
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#41
I don't know, I still think the PS4 will take May. The main reason the XB1 won last month was because of the Gamestop trade in deal, which is gone this month.
Exactly. And now GS and BB have deals for PS4. I originally was thinking XB1 would win again since some are probably waiting for the Batman bundle and MS put out the white console, but now i'm not so sure. The BB trade in deal is from May 24th to June 6.

It's going to be........interesting.

EDIT-

And look what jvm posted above.
 
Nov 30, 2014
6,851
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Ipoh, Malaysia
#43
[XB1] 200K
[PS4] 195K
[3DS] 100K
[WIU] 32K

I'm banking on Witcher 3 selling some consoles.
If you really believe this, then The Witcher 3 likely pushed more PS4's than XB1's since the PS4 version sold better.

Exactly. And now GS and BB have deals for PS4. I originally was thinking XB1 would win again since some are probably waiting for the Batman bundle and MS put out the white console, but now i'm not so sure. The BB trade in deal is from May 24th to June 6.

It's going to be........interesting.

EDIT-

And look what jvm posted above.
Yep, I think those deals will give the PS4 a win as well. Really interesting to see what happens.
 
Sep 8, 2013
7,105
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JAPAN
twitter.com
#44
[XB1] 156k
[PS4] 148K
[3DS] 98K
[WIU] 44k

Im thinking the impending release of the Batman LE bundle along with the normal decrease MoM from April to May means PS4 will have its lowest NPD month ever. It should also be a massive decline YoY thanks to Watch Dogs release giving PS4 a huge boost last year. That said I expect June to be a big sales month for Sony.