May 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes June 7th

Jul 11, 2014
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Multiple reports and first-hand experience of people questioning and not buying a PS4 after given information about their Neo questions. Or they ended up buying a Wii U or Xbox.
Personally. I have a hard time believing that the average consumer has heard about the Neo or that that it would impact sales to that great an extent so far out from release. And, why wouldn't those "informed" consumers be concerned about the rumored Scorpio Xbox? Honestly, most of the general buying public has no idea about the newly released VR systems or upcoming PSVR, let alone a rumored console upgrade. This post is based on way too anectodal evidence to give it any credence.
 
Mar 19, 2013
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Let's do it.

PS4 NEO crushed PS4 sales but
it will be up
... Uncharted will bring some clear boost compared with last year... 192k.

XB1 it is sold out but
MS didn't have that much to begin
... down about 10% compared with last year... 125k

Wii U no based GAF
tales
information :(... down by a small chunk... 30k

3DS dying so fast... 60k

[3DS] 60k
[PS4] 192k
[WIU] 30k
[XB1] 125k

BOLD

- Uncharted 4 will sell over 1.2m units
- Overwatc over 500k
- DOOM over 250k
- Valkyria Chronicles Remastered over 50k
- Ratchet and Clank over 50k
- Homefront less than 50k
- Street Fighter V over 15k
 
Nov 18, 2013
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[PS4] 200K
[XB1] 100K
[3DS] 70K
[WIU] 29K

Some predictions, mostly not very bold

1) We'll have a pacman month, including 3DS
2) #1 Uncharted (Donut Drake removed) #2 Overwatch (porn removed)
3) Battleborn and Homefront will not chart, but Quantum Break will (thanks to price drop)
4) PS4 vs. Xbox will be 2:1 or more
5) Sony will mention Uncharted, Hardware, E3 and VR in PR
6) MS will mention Overwatch, Win10, E3 and Gears of War in PR

Some Amazon stuff from May:

  • Uncharted is No.1 in Games, beating all those PSN cards. remarkable. No.20 for the SE, digi code at 41, CE at 48, Bundle at 76
  • Xbox at 56 and 58, PS4 at 16, 76, 98
  • Vita in the charts at 97. Congrats.
  • 3DS loading cable at 27. A goldmine.
  • Overwatch CE at 61 would have sold FAR better with a Waifu statue. The guy who decided to put in a soldier is an idiot.
 
Jun 7, 2004
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That is a good point. Statue is the Overwatch CE is garbo. Missed opportunity to at least have Tracer as the statue considering she is the focus in marketing.
 
Jun 6, 2015
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Personally. I have a hard time believing that the average consumer has heard about the Neo or that that it would impact sales to that great an extent so far out from release. And, why wouldn't those "informed" consumers be concerned about the rumored Scorpio Xbox? Honestly, most of the general buying public has no idea about the newly released VR systems or upcoming PSVR, let alone a rumored console upgrade. This post is based on way too anecdotal evidence to give it any credence.

Which is what I said. I used Anecdotal" and outlier multiple times now. Don't look to much into it.

Instead we should wonder if DOOM or Uncharted will be number 1.
 
Nov 18, 2013
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Seems overly bold - maybe PS4 1.5:1 XO but I just cant see it doubling it or being close to that. Is this all on Uncharted?

ps3ud0 8)
i cannot see a sales driver for Xbox this month. Price is up and quantum break has come and gone.
For PS4, the optimistic number is due to uncharted. Maybe i will lower it later, but i still think it will get a good bump up. Bundle was out for pre-order for a while, and the piled up sales will unload in the may NPD.
Instead we should wonder if DOOM or Uncharted will be number 1.
What do your sources say? Mine go for uncharted by a nose.
 
Mar 24, 2016
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Well anyway, E3 is right around the corner. It'll be crazy!

Since this is sales does E3 usually have an impact on June software or hardware sales or does it do nothing?
e3 won't haver any effect on sales unless a price drop is announced. Every year people make a big fuss over who won e3 but its effect on sales is almost nil.
 
Feb 24, 2014
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Well anyway, E3 is right around the corner. It'll be crazy!

Since this is sales does E3 usually have an impact on June software or hardware sales or does it do nothing?
E3 has an effect if there is a price drop announced.

Actually, Abdiel, can you comment on how many Xbox Ones there are in the distribution channels? Like, is it a normal level, and are you receiving new stock?
 
Sep 27, 2013
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i cannot see a sales driver for Xbox this month. Price is up and quantum break has come and gone.
For PS4, the optimistic number is due to uncharted. Maybe i will lower it later, but i still think it will get a good bump up. Bundle was out for pre-order for a while, and the piled up sales will unload in the may NPD.
Fair enough though your XO prediction isnt probably that far below the eventually prediction average of SalesGAF. I forgot that perhaps there were a lot of preorders for the bundle over the last few months that would only be counted for this month

ps3ud0 8)
 
Nov 18, 2013
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Fair enough though your XO prediction isnt probably that far below the eventually prediction average of SalesGAF. I forgot that perhaps there were a lot of preorders for the bundle over the last few months that would only be counted for this month

ps3ud0 8)
I get used to your signing of every post. First I thought i had missed an abbrevation like rofl, lol or lttp...
 
Sep 8, 2013
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No. No I don't. Where is the pun?
Oh my! This certainly has been an entertaining page. Multiple reports and nonsensical puns. Fun times!

Overwatch CE at 61 would have sold FAR better with a Waifu statue. The guy who decided to put in a soldier is an idiot.
[/LIST]
Truer words were never spoken.

i cannot see a sales driver for Xbox this month. Price is up and quantum break has come and gone.
For PS4, the optimistic number is due to uncharted. Maybe i will lower it later, but i still think it will get a good bump up. Bundle was out for pre-order for a while, and the piled up sales will unload in the may NPD.
While true about the bundle preorders all indications point to the bundle being truly limited so I personally doubt it would move the needle too much.
 
Jun 6, 2015
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Microsoft Napalm sale today:

Microsoft Store is offering a very strong Xbox One sale during their Memorial Day sales event. In this special promotion, eight Xbox One bundles are getting discounts up to $80 off, an extra free Xbox One wireless controller plus a free Ubisoft game of your choice.



The best deal in our opinion is 1TB Xbox One Spring Bundle, discounted by $80 to $319.99 plus a free controller and the aforementioned game. While the freebie game choices aren’t anything special, an extra title is an extra title. The next best bundle is the 1TB Rainbow Six Siege bundle, and finally everything else is getting a $50 only discount (include the more recent 1TB The Division bundle).


free choice.



Xbox One Memorial Day Sale MSRP % Off Sale Price
Xbox One 1TB Spring + Free Controller & Game $399.99 20% $319
Xbox One 1TB Six Siege + Free Controller & Game $399.99 20% $319
Xbox One 1TB The Division + Free Controller & Game $399.99 13% $349.99
Xbox One with Kinect + Free Controller & Game $499 30% $349
Xbox One Elite + Free Controller & Game $499 10% $449
Xbox One “Name Game” + Free Controller & Game $349.99 14% $299.99
Xbox One LEGO Movie + Free Controller & Game $349.99 15% $299
Xbox One GOW Ultimate + Free Controller & Game $349.99 15% $299


No expiration is noted by Microsoft

http://www.siliconera.com/2016/05/3...r-game-memorial-day-sale/#G2hQwA1VlMW7bIdV.99
If last part true it will likely go on until E3. If there's a slim it may be indefinite.

These Xbox deals are crazy.
 
Sep 8, 2013
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Well anyway, E3 is right around the corner. It'll be crazy!

Since this is sales does E3 usually have an impact on June software or hardware sales or does it do nothing?
So lets see people call your theories into question and you pull out "multiple sources." Retail insiders point out that their info in no way lines up with your sources and all the sudden they are "anecdotal" and you switch to asking whether a slow burn WoM title or a massively successful title will be number one on NPD. Then when people point out the absurdity of this question instead of pointing to aforementioned sources you switch gears yet again to "Guys its E3 time!"

Then you quote a sale literally labelled as "Memorial day sale" and insinuate it could be "indefinite."

Microsoft Napalm sale today:

If last part true it will likely go on until E3. If there's a slim it may be indefinite.

These Xbox deals are crazy.
edit: looks like you edited out the part about the sale not having an end date listed. Wise choice

All this amidst nonsensical rhetoric about Big Macs and bizarre puns. You sure are interesting.
 
Feb 24, 2014
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Microsoft Napalm sale today:



If last part true it will likely go on until E3. If there's a slim it may be indefinite.

These Xbox deals are crazy.
Holy shit. What the fuck???

So you can get

1x 1TB Xbox One
1x Halo 5
1x Gears of War: Ultimate Edition
1x Rare Replay
1x Ori and the Blind Forest
1x free Ubisoft game of your choice (Not that strong, you can choose between Watch Dogs, The Crew, Assassin's Creed Unity, Just Dance 2016, and Just Dance: Disney Party 2)
2x controllers

ALL FOR $320

This is part of their Memorial Day sale, so chances are it'll end tomorrow.