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[balladofwindfishes]

7 years and this is what they're ending up with

Sources suggest that Senate Republicans are weighing a last-ditch idea to pass some kind of health care bill in the coming days: a narrowly focused Obamacare repeal bill, perhaps one that eliminates the law's hated individual mandate to buy insurance and little else.

In order to get to conference, though, leadership needs a bill that can get 50 votes. Eliminating the penalty for Obamacare's individual mandate — possibly along with its employer mandate and some of its taxes on the health care industry — might be the only plan that can win such broad support within the Republican conference.

The plan is to let all the other options fail in a vote and then rebuild the bill using amendments. The end result would amount to just repealing the mandate and a small tax cut. Then punt it back to Paul Ryan in the house and hope for a miracle in committee.

There's a lot more details in the article, including all the problems this bill causes for the GOP and how it's not even a sure bet to pass.

Edit: CBO Report!!

 

[Maxim726X]

Still doesn't address any of the underlying issues with healthcare, so I can't imagine many people are going to like it.

If anything, it's probably going to make insurance more expensive. So... Great job, guys?

 

[Chumly]

Sounds like they are going to create a death spiral. I imagine most insurers will want to drop out.

 

[ZackieChan]

Isn't eliminating the larger risk pool (made of healthy people who can choose not to have health insurance) the only thing this accomplishes? So...all costs go up?

 

[BassForever]

Sounds like they are going to create a death spiral. I imagine most insurers will want to drop out.

Anything to prove Obama is ruining America

 

[Beartruck]

Isn't eliminating the larger risk pool (made of healthy people who can choose not to have health insurance) the only thing this accomplishes? So...all costs go up?

Yup.

 

[Plinko]

All costs go up and the market eventually collapses. Brilliant work, GOP.

 

[Officerrob]

So they are going to "own" healthcare by theoretically passing a bill that only removes the mandate which will then collapse the market and drastically increase costs. Sounds like a solid plan...

 

[alr1ght]

The mandate is the only reason it works. They want a "win" and who gives a fuck how many people it hurts. Truly evil.

 

[TangoAlphaLima]

Still doesn't address any of the underlying issues with healthcare, so I can't imagine many people are going to like it.

If anything, it's probably going to make insurance more expensive. So... Great job, guys?

Absolutely. If you keep the ban on excluding pre-existing conditions, but then don't have a way to force people to buy insurance for themselves, people will simply wait until they need the insurance to pay for it. It's unsustainable.

It's also a good time to remind everyone that Republicans backed an individual mandate during health care reform discussions in the 1990s: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/15/h...andate-was-first-backed-by-conservatives.html

 

[ahoyhoy]

This is the best way to ensure that everyone, not just those without employment insurance, feels the effects of this fuckery.

As you were, gentlemen.

 

[KernelPanic]

They don't want people thinking health care is a right that the government can provide.

 

[Lord Fagan]

Dat mandate.

They can't make half their tax plan work as long as it's still the law.

 

[pirateluigi]

Isn't eliminating the larger risk pool (made of healthy people who can choose not to have health insurance) the only thing this accomplishes? So...all costs go up?

Yes. You can't have coverage for pre-existing conditions without subsidizing it through requiring healthy people to have insurance. Also, preventative care is much cheaper than dealing with a condition after it develops. Removing the mandate means less people will seek out preventative care. This all adds up to a death spiral of skyrocketing premiums.

 

[Officerrob]

This will require Republicans to vote for abortion funding (planned parenthood)...

 

[HStallion]

Well we're still fucked! Thanks GOP

 

[JettDash]

According to the CBO premiums would go up 20% not including subsidies.



They don't plan on this being the final bill. They just hope this is something that will pass. Then they will go into conference with the House with where they hope to hammer out a "better" bill. Then the House and Senate would each vote.

 

[metalslimer]

Hospitals and insurance companies will hate this even more. They aren't even going to provide money to address the fact that people will still be thrown off healthcare. They just aren't destroying Medicaid anymore

 

[Seth Enosh]

Absolutely. If you keep the ban on excluding pre-existing conditions, but then don't have a way to force people to buy insurance for themselves, people will simply wait until they need the insurance to pay for it. It's unsustainable.

It's also a good time to remind everyone that Republicans backed an individual mandate during health care reform discussions in the 1990s: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/15/h...andate-was-first-backed-by-conservatives.html

Only some republicans backed the mandate. Remember that even Obama in 2008 was against the mandate, it's not exactly a slam dunk to force people to buy something.

I wonder if they got rid of the mandate and replaced it with auto-enrollment ala Cassidy-Collins bill, if it could be good enough. My understanding is that the mandate penalty isn't that large and has been under enforced the past few years anyway, leading to much lower enrollment in the Obamacare individual market than originally projected and higher premiums that fueled this whole "repeal Obamacare" political movement. See http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_59414cc3e4b03e17eee08864 and many other places discussing the auto enrollment proposals.

 

[StoOgE]

How do you get rid of the individual mandate, employer penalty and keep Obamacare going?

Insurance companies would flee the marketplace at insane rates and there would be no funding for the existing tax credits or medicare expansion.

It would cause a death spiral of Obamacare and then the GOP would own the complete destruction of the healthcare marketplace.

 

[metalslimer]

Only some republicans backed the mandate. Remember that even Obama in 2008 was against the mandate, it's not exactly a slam dunk to force people to buy something.

I wonder if they got rid of the mandate and replaced it with auto-enrollment ala Cassidy-Collins bill, if it could be good enough. My understanding is that the mandate penalty isn't that large and has been under enforced the past few years anyway, leading to much lower enrollment in the Obamacare individual market than originally projected and higher premiums that fueled this whole "repeal Obamacare" political movement.

The repeal obamacare political movement started in 2010 when the bill originally passed.

 

[Officerrob]

How do you get rid of the individual mandate, employer penalty and keep Obamacare going?

Insurance companies would flee the marketplace at insane rates and there would be no funding for the existing tax credits or medicare expansion.

It would cause a death spiral of Obamacare and then the GOP would own the complete destruction of the healthcare marketplace.

Yeah, but at least they would have repealed Obamacare

 

[StoOgE]

According to the CBO premiums would go up 20% not including subsidies.



They don't plan on this being the final bill. They just hope this is something that will pass. Then they will go into conference with the House with where they hope to hammer out a "better" bill. Then the House and Senate would each vote.

Except the parliamentarian has already said most of what they are attempting can't go through reconciliation.

AND they want their entire caucus on record as voting to kick 16 million people off of insurance headed into 2018 midterms?

 

[SuperBanana]

It's like watching monkeys fling their own feces around hoping some will finally stick to the wall.

 

[Maxim726X]

So, uhh.... What are the odds that this passes?

 

[StoOgE]

Only some republicans backed the mandate. Remember that even Obama in 2008 was against the mandate, it's not exactly a slam dunk to force people to buy something.

I wonder if they got rid of the mandate and replaced it with auto-enrollment ala Cassidy-Collins bill, if it could be good enough. My understanding is that the mandate penalty isn't that large and has been under enforced the past few years anyway, leading to much lower enrollment in the Obamacare individual market than originally projected and higher premiums that fueled this whole "repeal Obamacare" political movement. See http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_59414cc3e4b03e17eee08864 and many other places discussing the auto enrollment proposals.

The mandate is the only reason this works.

1) It gets a certain number of healthy people to buy insurance.
2) The penalty money for those that don't goes back into the marketplace to defray costs for high-risk patients.

Getting rid of the mandate kills the bill.

 

[Seth Enosh]

The repeal obamacare political movement started in 2010 when the bill originally passed.

Yes, but the movement was fueled by skyrocketing premiums that made many people mad and caused them to vote GOP. Obamacare has been unpopular over the past few years although with ACHA/BCRA's disaster on the horizon it has been growing in popularity as people realize the alternative is worse.

 

[JettDash]

How do you get rid of the individual mandate, employer penalty and keep Obamacare going?

Insurance companies would flee the marketplace at insane rates and there would be no funding for the existing tax credits or medicare expansion.

It would cause a death spiral of Obamacare and then the GOP would own the complete destruction of the healthcare marketplace.

This would keep most of the funding in place.

 

[StoOgE]

This would keep most of the funding in place.

Right, but the funding is paid for by these penalties on employers and individuals. They are creating a massive debt burden on the federal government.

This bill would have the trifecta of

1) increasing the deficit
2) increasing health care costs by 20%
3) kick 16 million people off their insurance

 

[metalslimer]

Yes, but the movement was fueled by skyrocketing premiums that made many people mad and caused them to vote GOP. Obamacare has been unpopular over the past few years although with ACHA/BCRA's disaster on the horizon it has been growing in popularity as people realize the alternative is worse.

Obamacares popularity had never been higher actually. It was a vastly unpopular bill when it passed leading the democrats getting their asses kicked in the 2010 midterms

Also this shit isn't even close to an obamacare repeal. It's a let's fuck the entire market bill

 

[ZealousD]

You can't even call that a repeal.

 

[googleplex]

How do you get rid of the individual mandate, employer penalty and keep Obamacare going?

Insurance companies would flee the marketplace at insane rates and there would be no funding for the existing tax credits or medicare expansion.

It would cause a death spiral of Obamacare and then the GOP would own the complete destruction of the healthcare marketplace.

They would just Blame democrats. It'll work too.

 

[conpfreak]

Honestly, they really need to leave the individual mandate alone if they aren't going to fully repeal and replace the ACA, as that would basically destroy the healthcare marketplace for everyone. Why can't they just huddle with Democrats and actually come up with a fix to the law, take credit for it, and move on? People don't want a repeal at all. They just don't want to pay high premiums and have access to common routine services without a high deductible. If premiums were actually reasonable, the individual mandate wouldn't even be much of an issue, because majority of people would just pay for their premiums and the people who don't who can afford it would put theirselves at a financial disadvantage.

The moral objection to the individual mandate is really just noise from a loud few on the right.

 

[JettDash]

Right, but the funding is paid for by these penalties on employers and individuals. They are creating a massive debt burden on the federal government.

This bill would have the trifecta of

1) increasing the deficit
2) increasing health care costs by 20%
3) kick 16 million people off their insurance

The CBO says that repealing the individual mandate would decrease the deficit because fewer people would sign up for the Medicaid (according to them 7 million), and subsidied plans on the individual market.


https://www.cbo.gov/budget-options/2016/52232

 

[balladofwindfishes]

They would just Blame democrats. It'll work too.

Not according to every bit of evidence we have

It's near impossible to blame the minority party when stuff turns bad.

 

[metalslimer]

They would just Blame democrats. It'll work too.

The deluded republicans in places like West Virginia will. I can't think of a party in power who has done something this unpopular than somehow gained seats. It's rare enough that the ruling party gains seats anyway in good times

 

[Seth Enosh]

Obamacares popularity had never been higher actually. It was a vastly unpopular bill when it passed leading the democrats getting their asses kicked in the 2010 midterms

Also this shit isn't even close to an obamacare repeal. It's a let's fuck the entire market bill

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...hes-new-high/ft_17-02-23_healthcare_approval/

This says disapproval went from 44% in 2010 to 55% in 2014, 54% in 2016. It wasn't popular.

 

[Aselith]

Still doesn't address any of the underlying issues with healthcare, so I can't imagine many people are going to like it.

If anything, it's probably going to make insurance more expensive. So... Great job, guys?

No but it will recreate an old one! That'll be fun, right?

Spoiler

Fuck these assholes

 

[Nirolak]

Well, I guess they can try to bankrupt their base by the next election. It's a bold strategy.

 

[StoOgE]

The CBO says that repealing the individual mandate would decrease the deficit because fewer people would sign up for the Medicaid (according to them 7 million), and subsidied plans on the individual market.


https://www.cbo.gov/budget-options/2016/52232

Right, but the only cost-savings is because less people would have insurance. It's a double edged sword:

You are either kicking people off of insurance or massively increasing the federal deficit.

 

[SpecX]

Not surprised, my brother inlaw will be happy with this since he refuses to pay for insurance to pocket more money and is very vocal how he hates the fine he pays due to the mandate.

 

[metalslimer]

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...hes-new-high/ft_17-02-23_healthcare_approval/

This says disapproval went from 44% in 2010 to 55% in 2014, 54% in 2016. It wasn't popular.

You're right I was thinking of individual components. Despite disapproval the vast majority want to see the bill fixed not completely repealed though

 

[JettDash]

Right, but the only cost-savings is because less people would have insurance. It's a double edged sword:

You are either kicking people off of insurance or massively increasing the federal deficit.

The biggest savings would be from people choosing not to sign up for Medicaid.

 

[Man-is-Obsolete]

How are they able to go around touting this will lower premiums and provide better care?

Oh right because with less regulations insurance companies will be much more generous. :/

 

[Pandora012]

Well, I guess they can try to bankrupt their base by the next election. It's a bold strategy.

It's okay tho. US voters have a short memory. US will have some years with Democrats in power, trying to fix what the Republicans have done. During that process Republicans lay the blame on the Democrats. Voters forget how they got in their current situation and vote Republican again. The cycle starts anew.

 

[Raylan Targaryen]

Not according to every bit of evidence we have

It's near impossible to blame the minority party when stuff turns bad.

It's cute that you think people understand how our government works

 

[balladofwindfishes]

It's cute that you think people understand how our government works

Evidently from polls, it looks like they know who to properly blame.

 

[KingV]

At first blush, this is going to be subject to 60 votes to to pass.

There's no way you get rid of the mandate, and cut taxes, and stil decrease the deficit thus it won't satisfy the Byrd rule, and won't work under reconciliation rules.

 

[JettDash]

At first blush, this is going to be subject to 60 votes to to pass.

There's no way you get rid of the mandate, and cut taxes, and stil decrease the deficit thus it won't satisfy the Byrd rule, and won't work under reconciliation rules.

CBO says repealing the individual mandate will reduce the deficit $416 billion from 2018-2026

 

[LegendofJoe]

Only some republicans backed the mandate. Remember that even Obama in 2008 was against the mandate, it's not exactly a slam dunk to force people to buy something.

I wonder if they got rid of the mandate and replaced it with auto-enrollment ala Cassidy-Collins bill, if it could be good enough. My understanding is that the mandate penalty isn't that large and has been under enforced the past few years anyway, leading to much lower enrollment in the Obamacare individual market than originally projected and higher premiums that fueled this whole "repeal Obamacare" political movement. See http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_59414cc3e4b03e17eee08864 and many other places discussing the auto enrollment proposals.

This was one of the few good ideas the Republican party managed to come up with. They'd be smart to include it. It works for 401k enrollment, and while it won't work quite as well with healthcare it will undoubtedly have a positive effect on total enrollment.