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[Cellbomber]

-
This reminds me that I want a new Minna no Tennis. Is SCEJ planning to make games ever again?

Didn't they recently announce they had 5 games in development?

 

[donny2112]

RECVX and RE4 on the PS2 did that,

The GCN sales of RE4 might not have needed as much rescuing in Japan if Capcom hadn't announced that RE4+ was coming to PS2 before RE4 was released on GCN. Which is why if an RE5 Wii port is coming, it shouldn't be announced until after the release of RE5 PS360.

Yeah, Ps360 or Wii-xclusive is the way to go.

D: You'd think no one had learned from their mistakes from the last two years.

I know those games did better than past Xbox/360 games, but is the barrier easier this year? With your current version of the top 100, how does #100 compare to last year's, which was 169K by Famitsu?

I don't have it in front of me but I think it was ~120K. This year has been down compared to 2006 and 2007, though.

 

[cvxfreak]

The GCN sales of RE4 might not have needed as much rescuing in Japan if Capcom hadn't announced that RE4+ was coming to PS2 before RE4 was released on GCN. Which is why if an RE5 Wii port is coming, it shouldn't be announced until after the release of RE5 PS360.

I agree entirely, but RE4 GC is a pretty good example because like these 360 RPGs, we know PS3 versions are coming from the get-go.

This is perhaps looking too closely at things when there are only the two "Play on Wii" examples yet, but so far both have had a first week that did about 10% of the LTD of the originals.

REmake did close to 10% too (24K against 270K), while Zero did about 5%. RE4 did about 19%.

 

[HK-47]

It's not inherently problematic for a game to be exclusive to either 360 or PS3 for a short period of time, provided that either a) one region's sales can make up for another's shortcomings or b) the game is guaranteed pretty high sales from the get go.

A good example of A would be something like RE4 on the GC. The game lagged in Japan compared to RE0, but Western sales were good enough to propel it beyond either REmake or RE0 (and every PS2 RE except its version of RE4). It looks like FFXIII will be somewhat similar, with excellent Japanese sales and perhaps subdued Western sales (although I still think the game would have been huge on PS3 only, even if potentially unprofitable).

A good example of B is MGS4.

The 360's RPGs are neither performing well enough in the West to warrant snubbing Japanese PS3 owners, nor were they ever guaranteed super-high sales.

White Knight Chronicles just proved that any next-gen Japanese RPG needs the PS3 to succeed.

Revealing the PS2 version before the GC version launched kinda makes that not the same deal.

Especially considering its the PS2 we are talking about

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

-Any Japanese gafers know if Wii Music has been completely price collapsed? Impressive recovery, but I'm curious whether its been aided by bargain bin prices. In any event, if it can continue to sell a bit here and there it could still reach 500K LTD.

It's getting discounted(beyond typical discount amounts) pretty much across the board which is extremely rare for a Nintendo game. You go into stores today and New Super mario brothers still sells for full value, with used versions being at most 1000 yen cheaper.


Can someone bring up a nice chart showing the compleate and total lack sucess of recent non-established series 3rd party rpgs on the ds. The compleate failure of Riz-zoawed, Winds of Nostaliga's 8000 units, Your hero didn't do too hot, Avalon code at least showed some type of success.

 

[SuperSonic1305]

Didn't they recently announce they had 5 games in development?

5 RPG's

 

[cvxfreak]

Revealing the PS2 version before the GC version launched kinda makes that not the same deal.

Especially considering its the PS2 we are talking about

Wait, are you talking about FFXIII or something else?

 

[Cellbomber]

^
Agreed. Games just receive more buzz when they're multi and released at the same time.

EDIT

Shown by the data, that's the way to go for third party HD games.

Actually the argument could be made that they could be most profitable going PS3 exclusive for hd rpgs. Hasn't the exclusives released on 360 performed poorly in all regions. Making it mutiplatform is just extra costs.

They may be looking at the long term though by creating more brand recognition by creating for both HD systems.

 

[schuelma]

Just to show how weak is SCE nowadays...biggest first weeks from SCE titles:
2005 - Rogue Galaxy 213,289
2006 - Minna no Tennis 210,392
2007 - Minna no Golf 5 175,750
2008 - White Knight Chronicles 203,000

This reminds me that I want a new Minna no Tennis. Is SCEJ planning to make games ever again?

Really puts things into perspective. Horrid.

 

[schuelma]

Actually the argument could be made that they could be most profitable going PS3 exclusive for hd rpgs. Hasn't the exclusives released on 360 performed poorly in all regions. Making it mutiplatform is just extra costs.

They may be looking at the long term though by creating more brand recognition by creating for both HD systems.

I don't know if I'd go that far. Big RPG's on the 360 seem to have settled into a 100K first week range, which while not impressive overall is still a big enough chunk to justify multi platform.

 

[RpgN]

Hard ?! When you are Sony you can bully those retailers to take 1 million+ orders. Shipping 1 million+ really is not a hard feat when you are a BIG publisher.

It has nothing to do with being a big publisher or not, RPGs are giving a hard time lately. Level 5 games weren't big in the west to begin with. As pointed by others, SCEA likes to push more popular games instead. Folklore bombed big time as well. But who knows, I guess. It might totally surprise us and do good. Online is definitely a big plus, though they really need to include voice chat support.

 

[HK-47]

Wait, are you talking about FFXIII or something else?

360 RPGs to PS3

 

[Jaruru]

AC:CF breaking the million mark by next week
MK Wii + WiiFit = perfect Xmas gift looks like

 

[duckroll]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA FUCK SONY! THIS IS WHAT YOU GET FOR LAUNCHING LATE, FOR TOO MUCH, AND WITH TOO LITTLE. A BITTER LESSON!!!!!! SUCK IT DOWN IN 2009!!!!!!! I WANT MY RGG3 OMGGGGG! :>_<:

 

[schuelma]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA FUCK SONY! THIS IS WHAT YOU GET FOR LAUNCHING LATE, FOR TOO MUCH, AND WITH TOO LITTLE. A BITTER LESSON!!!!!! SUCK IT DOWN IN 2009!!!!!!! I WANT MY RGG3 OMGGGGG! :>_<:

Whaaaa?

 

[RpgN]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA FUCK SONY! THIS IS WHAT YOU GET FOR LAUNCHING LATE, FOR TOO MUCH, AND WITH TOO LITTLE. A BITTER LESSON!!!!!! SUCK IT DOWN IN 2009!!!!!!! I WANT MY RGG3 OMGGGGG! :>_<:

Wow! What's up :lol

 

[duckroll]

I think, too much Jack Daniels. I'm going to log out before I post more crap....LOL

 

[schuelma]

I think, too much Jack Daniels. I'm going to log out before I post more crap....LOL

HAPPY NEW YEARS EVE DUCKY :lol :lol :lol

 

[PepsimanVsJoe]

However for most RPG devs the Wii/DS combo is still a more attractive option than PS360. For the non-Square-Enixes of the world it's going to take some effort on Microsoft or Sony's part to convince smaller devs to go to their system, especially considering the HD consoles typically don't provide any major benefits to JRPG development.

 

[cvxfreak]

360 RPGs to PS3

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, and I could be, but I thought PS3 versions, while unannounced, were obviously in development.

I think we're seeing the effects of such speculation on the sales of those 360 games...

 

[cw_sasuke]

However for most RPG devs the Wii/DS combo is still a more attractive option than PS360. For the non-Square-Enixes of the world it's going to take some effort on Microsoft or Sony's part to convince smaller devs to go to their system, especially considering the HD consoles typically don't provide any major benefits to JRPG development.

Yeah, when a CT Snes Port for DS ( only Japan) outsells IU and TLR (ww)..

 

[Eteric Rice]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA FUCK SONY! THIS IS WHAT YOU GET FOR LAUNCHING LATE, FOR TOO MUCH, AND WITH TOO LITTLE. A BITTER LESSON!!!!!! SUCK IT DOWN IN 2009!!!!!!! I WANT MY RGG3 OMGGGGG! :>_<:

 

[Vinnk]

-Any Japanese gafers know if Wii Music has been completely price collapsed? Impressive recovery, but I'm curious whether its been aided by bargain bin prices. In any event, if it can continue to sell a bit here and there it could still reach 500K LTD.

No price reductions at all in my town much less a price collapse. I also have seen a lot of used copies. Which I though meant that sales would drop. Seems (from the sales charts) that even with all the used copies, people are still buying new. They are likely not buying this one from game stores. They are probably getting it form department stores, malls, etc.

But that's just my town. I am not sure how it's going down in Tokyo/Osaka.

FINALFANTASYDOG, what city are you in? And how big are the discounts?

 

[schuelma]

No price reductions at all in my town much less a price collapse. I also have seen a lot of used copies. Which I though meant that sales would drop. Seems that even with all the used copies, people are still buying new. THey are likely not buying this one from game stores. They are probably getting it form department stores, malls, etc.

Thanks Vinnk! ( and FINALFANTASYDOG)

 

[FrankT]

Cranking it up to 11. :lol


Good ole JD.

 

[SimpleDesign]

However for most RPG devs the Wii/DS combo is still a more attractive option than PS360. For the non-Square-Enixes of the world it's going to take some effort on Microsoft or Sony's part to convince smaller devs to go to their system, especially considering the HD consoles typically don't provide any major benefits to JRPG development.

We're seeing the effects of that already, I doubt Atlus will ever jump on the PS360 bandwagon.

Edit: No those shitty strategy games published over here in the States do not count.

 

[donny2112]

Can someone bring up a nice chart showing the compleate and total lack sucess of recent non-established series 3rd party rpgs on the ds. The compleate failure of Riz-zoawed, Winds of Nostaliga's 8000 units, You are the hero didn't do too hot, Avalon code at least showed some type of success.

Are you referring to Prinny? If so, that's a PSP game.

 

[BishopLamont]

because it did better than expected in Japan so they are compensating?

:lol Just when I thought you came to your senses..

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

-Mario Kart Wii passes 2 million. Josh, how is it comparing to MK DS? Could it keep selling all next year and reach 3 million?

MK Wii (2854) started higher than MKDS (214) and has remained that way thus far. Just doing a quick visual comparison, it seems like MK Wii's lead has remained fairly steady for a long time (now increasing due to the holidays), so it's showing similar legs through the first year at least.

We can compare holiday sales, too, though since this is MK Wii's first holiday season while MK DS launched in one the DS's first far-from-launch holiday is even farther-from-launch. However, they seem to be doing pretty similarly. Here's a similar period from 2006 for MKDS and 2008 for MKWii, though the week beginnings aren't very aligned:

MKDS
2006-11-27: 8,384
2006-12-04: 15,091
2006-12-11: 26,589

MKWii
2008-11-24: 11,150
2008-12-01: 13,067
2008-12-08: 23,871


MK Wii may yet fall behind MK DS at a similar age, but there's no indication of that happening from sales so far.

 

[donny2112]

Looking at a thread I made just over two years ago to predict the U.S. prices of the three consoles by the end of 2008 is pretty interesting.

Averages, so far

1. Looking only at the premium for PS3 and 360.
2. Ignoring all numbers from a post that has one of the three being discontinued.
3. End of 2008 for anyone who gave end of 2008 + something else.
4. Excluding "new premiums" and HD-DVD editions.
5. Through post #58, rounded to nearest $5.

PS3 Premium: $420
360 Premium: $260
Wii: $130

I wanted to bring this back up, since it's now current, but I didn't want to bump the 2+ year old thread. Hopefully someone else also finds it interesting.

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

FINALFANTASYDOG, what city are you in? And how big are the discounts?

A small town in the middle of nowhere near Toyama. Nowhere near the discounts of a price collapse, but the fact that a Nintendo game is discounted at all amazes me. New ones going for around 4600, used ones at 3900.

Are you referring to Prinny? If so, that's a PSP game.

Nope, Sorry meant snk's kimi no yushya, was remembering the title with the wrong particle.

 

[BishopLamont]

Looking at a thread I made just over two years ago to predict the U.S. prices of the three consoles by the end of 2008 is pretty interesting.



I wanted to bring this back up, since it's now current, but I didn't want to bump the 2+ year old thread. Hopefully someone else also finds it interesting.

Wii: $130

Time to give this thread a read. :lol

First post:

360 - $150
PS3 - $399
Wii - Discontinued

:lol

 

[Mindlog]

Didn't they recently announce they had 5 games in development?

It's still kind of crazy. Will the studios be able to get follow-up games out before next gen hardware hits?

Looking at a thread I made just over two years ago to predict the U.S. prices of the three consoles by the end of 2008 is pretty interesting.



I wanted to bring this back up, since it's now current, but I didn't want to bump the 2+ year old thread. Hopefully someone else also finds it interesting.

not bad ;o
new projections!

A lot of people were fairly accurate. Not so much with the Wii of course.

 

[Pachael]

HAPPY NEW YEARS DUCKY :lol :lol :lol

Fix'd - and Let's Tap did bomb, thanks Sega for scheduling magic AGAIN

 

[BishopLamont]

It's still kind of crazy. Will the studios be able to get follow-up games out before next gen hardware hits?




not bad ;o
new projections!

A lot of people were fairly accurate. Not so much with the Wii of course.

To be fair, the Wii's price wasn't even revealed at that point. All the discontinues are funny though.

 

[donny2112]

To be fair, the Wii's price wasn't even revealed at that point.

All we knew was "under 25,000 yen" which was ~$215, so $230 was just a guess for a starting point. Now 25,000 yen is ~$275, so the Wii did get a price drop, after all. :lol

 

[Dascu]

ps3: $ a lot
360: $ less than ps3
wii: $ too much

Drohne's is the only prediction that is somewhat accurate.

 

[Linkup]

It's getting discounted(beyond typical discount amounts) pretty much across the board which is extremely rare for a Nintendo game. You go into stores today and New Super mario brothers still sells for full value, with used versions being at most 1000 yen cheaper.

A small town in the middle of nowhere near Toyama. Nowhere near the discounts of a price collapse, but the fact that a Nintendo game is discounted at all amazes me. New ones going for around 4600, used ones at 3900.

i must be missing something here

 

[Stumpokapow]

i must be missing something here

retailers often sell below msrp

wii music is selling further below msrp than retailers normally go (IE it is further discounted)

wii music is not selling so low that it'd be considered an "OMG MEGA BOMBA PRICE CUT STOCK MUST MOVE THE BUILDING IS COLLAPSING FROM ALL THE SAVINGS" price cut

not much to miss.

 

[markatisu]

I think this is the much more interesting observation (by Vinnk)

I also have seen a lot of used copies. Which I though meant that sales would drop. Seems (from the sales charts) that even with all the used copies, people are still buying new. They are likely not buying this one from game stores. They are probably getting it form department stores, malls, etc.

That would indicate that Wii Music being discounted means next to nothing if its selling at equal or greater numbers in non game stores.

 

[Linkup]

not much to miss.

apparently there is


I'll just take what vinnk said put it into context of someone living in the middle of no where and call it a day.

 

[Osuwari]

Looking at a thread I made just over two years ago to predict the U.S. prices of the three consoles by the end of 2008 is pretty interesting.



I wanted to bring this back up, since it's now current, but I didn't want to bump the 2+ year old thread. Hopefully someone else also finds it interesting.

i wonder if crows would go extinct if they're served to all the people who posted that kind of wii predictions in all of 2005/6

 

[Kagari]

Good for WKC.

 

[lowlylowlycook]

Looking at a thread I made just over two years ago to predict the U.S. prices of the three consoles by the end of 2008 is pretty interesting.



I wanted to bring this back up, since it's now current, but I didn't want to bump the 2+ year old thread. Hopefully someone else also finds it interesting.

I love these old threads because I like the idea of going back in time and posting

"360 will be cheaper than the Wii and the Wii will be outselling it 2 to 1. Furthermore, the Wii will still be supply constrained after selling 2M in Nov 2008."

I'm pretty sure you would have been banned for trolling or something.

 

[FateBreaker]

The 360's RPGs are neither performing well enough in the West to warrant snubbing Japanese PS3 owners, nor were they ever guaranteed super-high sales.

Well, LO did pretty darn well. And, hey, all the others did better than VC and the Enchanted Arms port and Eternal Sonata port. So, not really.

 

[Liabe Brave]

Last time I heard, 700k+ was shipped worldwide.

It will be hard for WKC to match that, unless it gets huge marketing as well.

Say what? With a first week at 200k, WKC will probably get to 350 or 400k in Japan, a nation that owns about 2.6m PS3s. The rest of the world owns about 15m PS3s. Even if those folks like WKC only a quarter as much as the Japanese, it will easily surpass 700k.

And these are sell-through numbers, not just shipped! I don't believe any reasonable estimation can say that matching LO will be hard. Not guaranteed, perhaps, but surely more likely than not.

Well, LO did pretty darn well. And, hey, all the others did better than VC and the Enchanted Arms port and Eternal Sonata port. So, not really.

I agree that PS3 presence isn't a guaranteed cure for sales blues like cvxfreak seems to be implying. However, it's easy to explain the poor performance of year-old ports on PS3. Games that release day-and-date like Gundam Musou perform better.

Also, "all the other" 360 RPGs did not perform better than Valkyria Chronicles in Japan. Given the (very incomplete) numbers we have, only Blue Dragon and Tales of Vesperia did.

 

[AFreak]

So these numbers aren't Media Create?

 

[schuelma]

So these numbers aren't Media Create?

No, Famitsu

 

[AFreak]

No, Famitsu

Ah, Media Create's always seem to be a little higher than Famitsu's. Is it just the way they average or does Media Create get different sales data?

 

[cvxfreak]

Well, LO did pretty darn well. And, hey, all the others did better than VC and the Enchanted Arms port and Eternal Sonata port. So, not really.

LO is an MS game, so it doesn't really apply here. And I'd say Enchanted Arms and Eternal Sonata are good examples of RPGs with decent hype getting mediocre PS3 sales because people knew all about them by the time the PS3 ports came out. Lost Planet seems to have suffered the same fate.

I agree that PS3 presence isn't a guaranteed cure for sales blues like cvxfreak seems to be implying. However, it's easy to explain the poor performance of year-old ports on PS3. Games that release day-and-date like Gundam Musou perform better.

To clarify, its definitely not a guaranteed cure for many titles. A game that is pretty bad or undermarketed will not be saved by being multiplatform.