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Media Create Sales 6/9 - 6/15

charlequin

Banned
Oct 19, 2005
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Redd said:
I don't get it. Maybe the Japanese(no offense) didn't notice the online portion of MGS4.
Japanese gamers have never been particularly interested in multiplayer shooter games, so I'm not particularly surprised that MGS4 didn't buck the trend on that.
 

Minsc

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Oct 1, 2007
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OokieSpookie said:
Anyone who actually played MGS4 definitely feel it is the year of the PS3, people who spend their days jerking off over numbers instead of playing games can do what they want.
Ok, so then explain all the used copies in a week...

Edit: Wow this thread picked up a little. I see I won't be getting an answer.
 

AnimeTheme

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Nov 8, 2005
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norinrad21 said:
I always expect good games to sell regardless of console. Just because a game didn't sell well last gen, doesn't mean a new installment won't bring about change.
I don't know how you define "sell well", but MGS has always been a consistent seller in Japan (around 800k LTD for each installment). It was never a million seller, but I would say the sales is "good" by its own. It doesn't have a broader appeal like FF or even DQ, so expecting it to have an upward change on a platform which isn't even half that popular as the previous one seems pretty unrealistic, but the fan base is still very loyal.
 

Perdew

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Jan 3, 2008
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I pretty much just lurk these threads, but I wanted to express how much I sincerely love this PS3 drama. Good work, everyone.
 

Minsc

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Oct 1, 2007
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So as of this thread, rough %s of a game's sales to the console's userbase (at least the easiest and biggest ones I could find, any NDS games able to claim 20%+?),

MGS4 - 21.5%
MHP2G - 22.9%
Wii Fit - 35.8%
Wii Sports - 27.4% ~50%

Pretty good showing for MGS4, and really makes Wii Fit's sales look amazing, wonder how long until games using the balance board make some more appearances in the charts.
 
Oct 19, 2005
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Minsc said:
Ok, so then explain all the used copies in a week...

Edit: Wow this thread picked up a little. I see I won't be getting an answer.
On the less popular consoles it's some what common to see gamers buy the new big game, beat it as quickly as possible and then sell it back so they can minimize the cost. Happened quite a bit with the GC.
 

HK-47

Oh, bitch bitch bitch.
Oct 24, 2007
49,170
0
1,010
Minsc said:
So as of this thread, rough %s of a game's sales to the console's userbase (at least the easiest and biggest ones I could find, any NDS games able to claim 20%+?),

MGS4 - 21.5%
MHP2G - 22.9%
Wii Fit - 35.8%
Wii Sports - 27.4%

Pretty good showing for MGS4, and really makes Wii Fit's sales look amazing, wonder how long until games using the balance board make some more appearances in the charts.
Pokemon, NSMB?
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
May 21, 2006
17,232
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Minsc said:
So as of this thread, rough %s of a game's sales to the console's userbase (at least the easiest and biggest ones I could find, any NDS games able to claim 20%+?),

Wii Fit - 35.8%
Wii Sports - 27.4%
Wii Sports should be almost 50% (2.97 million sales on a userbase just over 6 million). Pokemon Diamond/Pearl is at a hair over 25%. NSMB is at 22% or so, Brain Age 2 just behind that, Animal Crossing is ~18% or so. Blue Dragon on the 360 is ~40%. Dead or Alive 4 and Lost Odyssey both around 20%.
 

Durante

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Oct 1, 2006
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Minsc said:
Ok, so then explain all the used copies in a week...
That's easy: MGS4 is one of the greatest games of all time, but the singleplayer portion is not particularly long, and many Japanese gamers have little or no interest in MGO.

Anyway, I think the dropoff is within expectations for a historically "hardcore" series, especially on a secondary console.
 

Minsc

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Oct 1, 2007
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Stumpokapow said:
Wii Sports should be almost 50% (2.97 million sales on a userbase just over 6 million). Pokemon Diamond/Pearl is at a hair over 25%. NSMB is at 22% or so, Brain Age 2 just behind that, Animal Crossing is ~18% or so. Blue Dragon on the 360 is ~40%. Dead or Alive 4 and Lost Odyssey both around 20%.
Holy crap, thanks for the quick correction. I must have clicked the link for last year's sales instead of last week's from the previous thread.
 

Rocksteady33

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Oct 23, 2006
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I'm unaware of how used sales works in Japan, so could someone clarify something? Do major retailers (like our Best Buy's) sell used games as well? It boggles my mind that used game sales can be such a huge factor in Japan when I don't really see it as a huge issue in the States. When I go to buy a game I simply never have the option of a used copy because I always go to Best Buy/Target/Wal-Mart/Circuit City, etc. However if major electronic retailers carried used games as well in Japan then I could see it.
 

Redd

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Aug 23, 2007
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charlequin said:
Japanese gamers have never been particularly interested in multiplayer shooter games, so I'm not particularly surprised that MGS4 didn't buck the trend on that.
Yeah I just though Kojimas game would be the exception. I'm also surprised about the used copies one week. Eh doesn't matter to me, I did my part and bought a copy.

Japan hates HD gaming confirmed. At least MGS4 sold in line with 2 and 3.
Funny I thought they had a hell of a first week.
 

Cheesemeister

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Feb 14, 2005
10,973
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Kyoto, Japan
Rocksteady33 said:
I'm unaware of how used sales works in Japan, so could someone clarify something? Do major retailers (like our Best Buy's) sell used games as well? It boggles my mind that used game sales can be such a huge factor in Japan when I don't really see it as a huge issue in the States. When I go to buy a game I simply never have the option of a used copy because I always go to Best Buy/Target/Wal-Mart/Circuit City, etc. However if major electronic retailers carried used games as well in Japan then I could see it.
No, they don't. Sofmap, Yodobashi, Bic Camera, Ito Yokado, and so on only sell new games. You have to go to a "recycle shop" along the lines of GameStop to buy used. The amazing thing about such shops, though, is that they're like video game history museums and stock all previous generations.
 
Apr 4, 2008
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Durante said:
That's easy: MGS4 is one of the greatest games of all time, but the singleplayer portion is not particularly long, and many Japanese gamers have little or no interest in MGO.

Anyway, I think the dropoff is within expectations for a historically "hardcore" series, especially on a secondary console.
The problem for the PS3 in Japan is that everyone expects the PS3 to fail. Meeting expectations isn't really going to be enough.
 

cvxfreak

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Cheesemeister said:
No, they don't. Sofmap, Yodobashi, Bic Camera, Ito Yokado, and so on only sell new games. You have to go to a "recycle shop" along the lines of GameStop to buy used. The amazing thing about such shops, though, is that they're like video game history museums and stock all previous generations.
Some Sofmap locations do sell used games. Shinjuku's branch for example does.
 

Lupin3

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May 9, 2006
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Cheesemeister said:
No, they don't. Sofmap, Yodobashi, Bic Camera, Ito Yokado, and so on only sell new games. You have to go to a "recycle shop" along the lines of GameStop to buy used. The amazing thing about such shops, though, is that they're like video game history museums and stock all previous generations.
That's just wrong. Of course they sell used games, Sofmap is huge when it comes to second hand.

Yodobashi and BC, not so big though.
 

Rocksteady33

Junior Member
Oct 23, 2006
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Cheesemeister said:
No, they don't. Sofmap, Yodobashi, Bic Camera, Ito Yokado, and so on only sell new games. You have to go to a "recycle shop" along the lines of GameStop to buy used. The amazing thing about such shops, though, is that they're like video game history museums and stock all previous generations.
Well then why is it that when a game is front loaded and doesn't seem to do well their second week (which I don't feel the case is for MGS4, it's doing along the lines of previous MGS games) people always jump to the used copies conclusion in the Media Create sales. Yet in NPD sales threads I don't think I've ever seen someone bring up the used copy argument when a game fails to meet expectations.
 

GreenNight

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Oct 31, 2005
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Rocksteady33 said:
Well then why is it that when a game is front loaded and doesn't seem to do well their second week (which I don't feel the case is for MGS4, it's doing along the lines of previous MGS games) people always jump to the used copies conclusion in the Media Create sales. Yet in NPD sales threads I don't think I've ever seen someone bring up the used copy argument when a game fails to meet expectations.
Cause for the most part in the US, used games only go for a couple dollars cheaper than new ones where as in Japan they can be up to 40% cheaper. Blame EB.
 

charlequin

Banned
Oct 19, 2005
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Rocksteady33 said:
Well then why is it that when a game is front loaded and doesn't seem to do well their second week (which I don't feel the case is for MGS4, it's doing along the lines of previous MGS games) people always jump to the used copies conclusion in the Media Create sales.
The used game culture is very different in Japan:
  • Stores pay close to original price for titles shortly after release and slowly drop their buyback price, so there's an encouragement to rush and sell back quickly.
  • Games that have been out even a few weeks provide a larger savings buying used than the maximum of $5 savings you get buying used in the US.
  • Used games are generally sold back by hardcore gamers playing a game once and flipping it immediately, not casual gamers trading in old stuff for a discount on their next purchase, so used games are generally in excellent condition and don't have the risks of scratches/missing manual or box/etc. that US used games do.

This all exacerbates the front-loading and pushes it even tighter into first-week sales, compared to the US where the curve is a little shallower.
 

liuelson

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Aug 27, 2007
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For the heck of it:

garaph database of PS2 games with 400k < Week 1 < 500k
Compare against inverse function y = C/t^r
Calculate predicted LTD up to y < 100 or t = 156, whichever comes first.

Edit:
Stumpokapow said:
[ code ]stuff goes here--don't include the spaces in the quote tags [ / code ]
Inside those BBCode tags, you can paste in data with the tab character in it, to line stuff up.
Thank you!

Code:
Game				Wk 1	Wk 2	LTD	r	pLTD	Error:
MGS3				487k	123k	820k	1.99	801k	~2.3%
MGS2				457k	88k	798k	2.37	635k	~20.4%
GT3				468k	263k	1429k	0.83	3982k	~178.6%
Kingdom Hearts			411k	103k	830k	1.99	673k	~18.9%
Super Robot Wars Impact		436k	75k	633k	2.54	578k	~8.7%
Tales of Destiny 2		498k	64k	739k	2.97	601k	~18.7%
Hot Shots Golf 4		475k	163k	1051k	1.55	1107k	~5.3%
Super Robot Wars MX		403k	54k	521k	2.91	491k	~5.6%
Dragon Ball Z Budokai 3		414k	90k	642k	2.20	614k	~4.5%
MGS4				476k	67k	???	2.83	589k	???
Google Doc
 

OldJadedGamer

Banned
Feb 28, 2006
18,281
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This is what I was saying before, the sales thread in second week of sales for a big hit game is way more interesting then the first week.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
May 21, 2006
17,232
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Also, given that The Tower DS (ie Sim Tower DS) is releasing tomorrow, I assume we can pretty much write off next week's numbers. The Tower is predicted to break all launch records. I heard the first shipment is fifty million billion copies because they expect the game to be so awesome and popular that it re-ignites DS hardware sales and every current DS owner will by multiple copies.

... if it breaks 50,000 lifetime I'll be astounded :(

Anyone importing? I'm giving it around 4 months, and if there's no localization announcement, I'll grab it then. The Tower SP was an exceptionally low-profile post-DS release GBA localization, so if that can make it, anything can.

liuelson said:
Sorry for the formatting - don't know how to make things line up.
[ code ]stuff goes here--don't include the spaces in the quote tags [ / code ]
Inside those BBCode tags, you can paste in data with the tab character in it, to line stuff up.
 

Jaruru

Member
Mar 9, 2008
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Stumpokapow said:
Also, given that The Tower DS (ie Sim Tower DS) is releasing tomorrow, I assume we can pretty much write off next week's numbers. The Tower is predicted to break all launch records. I heard the first shipment is fifty million billion copies because they expect the game to be so awesome and popular that it re-ignites DS hardware sales and every current DS owner will by multiple copies.

... if it breaks 50,000 lifetime I'll be astounded :(

Anyone importing? I'm giving it around 4 months, and if there's no localization announcement, I'll grab it then. The Tower SP was an exceptionally low-profile post-DS release GBA loclaization, so if that can make it, anything can.
I'm waiting for the localization announcement as well. this game is addictive. I don't mind playing it over and over. :lol

is there new resto/entertainment facilities? :O :O :O
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
May 21, 2006
17,232
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Jaruru said:
I'm waiting for the localization announcement as well. this game is addictive. I don't mind playing it over and over. :lol

is there new resto/entertainment facilities? :O :O :O
What we know so far:
- Touch screen control
- Less sluggish than SP (YES!)
- Many different scenarios, expanding on The Tower SP
- Some building can be creatively shaped like monuments; example is a tower monument to Mario.
- Pre-order Japanese game to get mega 128 page booklet.

New screenshots.
 

goompapa

Member
Jan 3, 2005
338
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Kagari said:
No one answered my previous question... do we know how many copies of MGS4 got shipped to Japan?
according to dengekionline.com (through babelfish):

"........but as for the sale week result which adjusts limited edition and substance bundled edition presumption 47.4 ten thousand (approximately shop front digestibility 65%). ............."

link

474/0.65 = 730k
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Mar 22, 2007
23,613
2
1,000
botticus said:
As with most games, I assume the fanbase is on the PS2, so there's little reason for the Wii game. That said, looking at the previous games (all PS2) on Garaph (thanks Joshua!), this one had a big opening:

2004-12-22 Harukanaru Toki no Naka de 3 - 22,496
2005-04-01 Harukanaru Toki no Naka de ~Hachiyoushou~ - 9,480
2005-09-22 Harukanaru Toki no Naka 3 - 36,663
2006-03-23 Harukanaru Toki no Uchi de 3: Unmei no Meikyuu - 33,621

It's LTD is already beyond any of those.
Ye, the fanbase is one thing i didnt think about, but still i'm suprised that the difference is that big. Maybe most store ordered more PS2 copies and maybe that is one reason why the numbers for the Wii version are low, but i dont know. It might be as you say that the fanbase is on PS2 and that is where they played some of their previous Harukanaru Toki no Naka games.

Thanks for the numbers on the earlier games in this serie! :) Harukanaru Toki no Naka de 4 did indeed had a pretty big opening compared to the previous Harukanaru Toki no Naka games


Stumpokapow said:
What we know so far:
- Touch screen control
- Less sluggish than SP (YES!)
- Many different scenarios, expanding on The Tower SP
- Some building can be creatively shaped like monuments; example is a tower monument to Mario.
- Pre-order Japanese game to get mega 128 page booklet.

New screenshots.
Ah, the Tower, a really good game i remember playing back in the days on our old computer, i have some good memories from this game :) I also played the GBA version alittle bit. This game is really cool in my opinion. Thanks for the new screenshots by the way! :)
 

Vinci

Danish
Oct 12, 2007
22,075
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0
United States
Hopefully Mario Sluggers slides off the fucking map entirely and Nintendo gets the hint that outsourcing isn't doing that series any damn favors. Build it internally or, if you must outsource it, send it to the MLB Power Pros guys.
 

Jokeropia

Member
May 15, 2006
6,556
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test_account said:
Ye, the fanbase is one thing i didnt think about, but still i'm suprised that the difference is that big. Maybe most store ordered more PS2 copies and maybe that is one reason why the numbers for the Wii version are low, but i dont know. It might be as you say that the fanbase is on PS2 and that is where they played some of their previous Harukanaru Toki no Naka games.
I read somewhere that Wii didn't get any "limited edition" version, which could account for part of it since the so-called limited edition is often the better selling in many games.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Mar 22, 2007
23,613
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Jokeropia said:
I read somewhere that Wii didn't get any "limited edition" version, which could account for part of it since the so-called limited edition is often the better selling in many games.
Ah ok, i didnt know that, if that is the case then that might be the reason why the PS2 version sold much better indeed. Thanks for the info! :)

And ye, about "limited edition", i think its alittle "funny" (or what i shall say) when the "limited editon" ends up selling more than the standard edition hehe.
 

Laguna

Banned
Dec 29, 2004
1,674
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0
chris0701 said:
What do the gamers in Japan want nowady ?
I guess, more games appealing to Japanese? PS3 2008 lineup isn´t looking so bright, the only notable and known exclusive game for the rest of 2008 so far is Gran Tourismo 5. Sonys lackluster efforts aren´t helping the situation in Japan either. Where is Whight Knight Chronicles releasedate for example? People saw what happened with PS, PS2 and NDS and are expecting a similar development for Wii, while PS3 took the place of this gens Saturn/GC in their mind. Also many people including myself are expecting the returning backwardscompatibility with PSthree.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Feb 11, 2007
21,700
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0
nipponsalesage.blogspot.com
Laguna said:
I guess, more games appealing to Japanese? PS3 2008 lineup isn´t looking so bright, the only notable and known exclusive game for the rest of 2008 so far is Gran Tourismo 5. Sonys lackluster efforts aren´t helping the situation in Japan either. Where is Whight Knight Chronicles releasedate for example? People saw what happened with PS, PS2 and NDS and are expecting a similar development for Wii, while PS3 took the place of this gens Saturn/GC in their mind. Also many people including myself are expecting the returning backwardscompatibility with PSthree.
Isn't it even questionable that GT5 will be out this year?
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
Sep 9, 2006
27,410
1
0
Laguna said:
I guess, more games appealing to Japanese? PS3 2008 lineup isn´t looking so bright, the only notable and known exclusive game for the rest of 2008 so far is Gran Tourismo 5. Sonys lackluster efforts aren´t helping the situation in Japan either. Where is Whight Knight Chronicles releasedate for example? People saw what happened with PS, PS2 and NDS and are expecting a similar development for Wii, while PS3 took the place of this gens Saturn/GC in their mind. Also many people including myself are expecting the returning backwardscompatibility with PSthree.
GT5 is a 2008 game ?
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Feb 11, 2007
21,700
0
0
nipponsalesage.blogspot.com
Laguna said:
I know it isn´t confirmed but I wanted to name atleast one game... I´m sorry

I think Biohazard has a shot at coming out at the end of the year, and White Knight Story should. That's all I can think of in terms of likely high profile PS3 releases for Japan in 08.
 

sphinx

the piano man
Nov 21, 2006
15,739
0
1,350
Germany
Redd said:
Yeah I just though Kojimas game would be the exception. I'm also surprised about the used copies one week. Eh doesn't matter to me, I did my part and bought a copy.



Funny I thought they had a hell of a first week.
everybody talks like there was a legitimate report of plenty of used copies of MGS4 in Japan.

Did I miss this info? can someone please point me to it?
 

KajunW

Member
Apr 21, 2007
185
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RJT said:
I think Joshua's database has the famitsu top30 number for many years, so we do have a lot of data points. He just needs to add extra fields to classify the game (platform and publisher should already be there, Franchise/Genre/Famitsu would have to be added). Of course, the work required to classify each game would be monster...

Another variable I think is useful is hardware sales on the last 6/12/x months. A game on a platform that is spiking (e.g. PSP) should do better than a game on a platform that is dying (e.g. PS2).
Yes, the work required would be of monstrous proportions. It might be do-able if it somehow could be divided amongst the Sales-Agers who want to put work into it. One person doing it seems a bit of stretch. I certainly wouldn't blame Joshua for not wanting to do it.

That variable might be useful yes. There might be some collineairity going on, but it certainly is worth checking out.


liuelson said:
Great list KajunW.

For other independent variables, what about developer (not just publisher), and whether the title is bundled with anything (console or accessory)? Also, as you said, it would be nice to capture information about marketing or even budget, but it would be nearly impossible to gather that kind of data systematically from public sources. Really, the "marketing" variable is an attempt to quantify awareness of the title by potential purchasers (assuming that greater marketing correlates with greater awareness, and greater awareness correlates with higher probability of purchase). One might try to use google search data or even Amazon pre-order data as a proxy for consumer awareness.

Edit: I just read the posts about how X360 games are high on Amazon.jp, but low in sales. Oh well!
Using Google search hits is a great idea I think. Since 'popularity' of a title is hard to model, we're looking for proxys and this seems to be a decent one.

Regarding the Amazon example: that's too bad, but at the same time, it might still be worthwhile to include it as a variable. The reason is that Xbox 360 games generally sell poorly because of the small userbase, and that one is captured by the hardware sales variable already (the 'system' variable I listed is not necessary, in hindsight). Since a regression accounts for *all* variables you put into the model, it shouldn't be a problem. The model would predict low sales for the top 10 Amazon games because it's a Xbox360 game, and at the same time, it would perform higher than other Xbox360 games because it recognizes the fact it's in the Amazon Top 10. And that's what we want, really.

liuelson said:
For the heck of it:

garaph database of PS2 games with 400k < Week 1 < 500k
Compare against inverse function y = C/t^r
Calculate predicted LTD up to y < 100 or t = 156, whichever comes first.
So...the inverse works pretty well for individual cases, right? I only checked it with MGS1-3. Might even be worth trying it as an alternative model...

If you want to screw around with it in regression, you can download the software package 'R' (link), which is an open source implementation of the commercial 'Insightful S-Plus'. The latter is one of the better statistical packages, and is often used in the financial world. There's a function called 'nls', non-linear least squares, which you can play around with it.