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Media Create Sales 6/9 - 6/15

duckroll

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Tron 2.0 said:
I understand. However, I believe the data you presented in the other thread along with historical second and third week sales for the series lends itself to the conclusion that he made.
It could well be so, but we should not forget that if it follows the MGS sales trend with NO drop off from MGS3 (unlikely imo, but who would have thought it would follow the first week so closely?), then we're looking at over 300k of additional MGS4 sales to come at least. How many of those will be buying a PS3 to play it, and how many of those already own a PS3? We don't know.
 

PistolGrip

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dyls said:
It's hilarious that everyone is suddenly such huge MH fans. If it was made by Nintendo it would be part of the problem, but because it's made by anybody else, it's the savior of gaming.

Even funnier, I would say that Wii Fit is actually one of the more hardcore games of the generation. To me, a hardcore game is one that you have to put a lot in to get much out, while a casual game is one that is easy and quick and doesn't really challenge you in any great way. After 16+ hours of working out with it, I would definitely say that Wii Fit
belongs in the first category.
I dont think people have become MH fans, its just Wiifit hate :)

Also your statement would make Wow Hardcore :p I dont think GAF agrees... To me an example of hardcore is Unix and Casual is Windows. You can spend hours upon hours on both but ones lets you do things very quickly through very nifty commands that would be labeled expert commands by casual PC users and the other is much more easier to use but limited in places because is trying to sugar coat everything.
 

PantherLotus

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duckroll said:
He cannot look at it in any other way because he has no interest or knowledge in how previous MGS games have sold, and what the trend and fanbase in Japan for the game is like. I don't completely disagree with his point, I think Sony is doomed too as far as being number 1 is concerned, but it's obvious he isn't putting much effort into this "analysis". :p
I actually do have knowledge of how some MGS games have sold, what the trend and fanbase in Japan for the game is like. I also know that you keep avoiding pointing out that my conclusion is correct because of a straw man argument.

I made an assumption about MGS sales, you called me out on it, but the assumption I made is correct (and we all know it). I'm not sure why you're getting hung up on a minor assumption when much larger brush strokes are being painted.
 

Tron 2.0

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lsslave said:
So people can't just be happy that MGS4 did some of the best Japanese GAME sales from a 3rd party this entire generation of gaming?

Instead its "PS3 doomed because it didn't sell that many PS3s"
Hi. Welcome to a sales analysis topic.
 

PantherLotus

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duckroll said:
It could well be so, but we should not forget that if it follows the MGS sales trend with NO drop off from MGS3 (unlikely imo, but who would have thought it would follow the first week so closely?), then we're looking at over 300k of additional MGS4 sales to come at least. How many of those will be buying a PS3 to play it, and how many of those already own a PS3? We don't know.
And that is the very set of questions I set out to answer. If MC matches Famitsu, it appears that 13% of those buyers bought a PS3 to play it. If the trend pans out, that would mean a total of a 100k increase (best case scenario) for the PS3 as a direct result of this game.

I thought it was a pretty simple conclusion.
 

lsslave

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Tron 2.0 said:
Hi. Welcome to a sales analysis topic.
I figure if the 360 had sold 500K in Japan and gets the JRPGs it gets then the PS3 should get some amazing ones by sales standards *hums away*

Also: sales really mean nothing, PS3 stills stands a chance thanks to A) some bad juju in part of the 360 (from when I still worked retail, it was amazing to see the HOT system *not counting Wii* stop selling almost instantly when the news of it being a problem came out) and B) Europe/Japan prefers it to 360

But I suppose its fun to watch, especially the meltdowns ^^
 

Tron 2.0

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duckroll said:
It could well be so, but we should not forget that if it follows the MGS sales trend with NO drop off from MGS3 (unlikely imo, but who would have thought it would follow the first week so closely?), then we're looking at over 300k of additional MGS4 sales to come at least. How many of those will be buying a PS3 to play it, and how many of those already own a PS3? We don't know.
That's true, we don't know.

We could perhaps look at historical data for PS2 hardware sales for second and third weeks in tandem with the software sales of MGS3 to see a general trend though. Again, they would be rough projections and anything could happen in the next few weeks, but I imagine hardware sales would show a declining pattern associated with most major releases.

I don't think we have any reason to think that MGS4 will have a snowballing effect, but I've been wrong before.
 

PistolGrip

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PantherLotus said:
And that is the very set of questions I set out to answer. If MC matches Famitsu, it appears that 13% of those buyers bought a PS3 to play it. If the trend pans out, that would mean a total of a 100k increase (best case scenario) for the PS3 as a direct result of this game.

I thought it was a pretty simple conclusion.
I have a great idea!!!

Since you are the only one making assumptions, why dont you make a self ban bet for a month if PS3 doesnt drop below 10K for the next 2 months. So the bet is if PS3 doesnt drop below 10k you get banned...

How about it? Its super easy I think.
 

Elbrain

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So yeah, now all we need for the PS3 is them Jrpgs where ARE THEY? Either way good for MGS4 that it sold really well and hopefully keeps on trucking in the incoming weeks.
 

Tron 2.0

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lsslave said:
Also: sales really mean nothing, PS3 stills stands a chance thanks to A) some bad juju in part of the 360 (from when I still worked retail, it was amazing to see the HOT system *not counting Wii* stop selling almost instantly when the news of it being a problem came out) and B) Europe/Japan prefers it to 360
I would argue they mean a lot.

And this is a Japanese sales thread. We're not arguing the possibility of the PS3 being number two or its relationship to the 360 in Europe and the States. It's already sealed in Japan.
 

duckroll

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PantherLotus said:
And that is the very set of questions I set out to answer. If MC matches Famitsu, it appears that 13% of those buyers bought a PS3 to play it. If the trend pans out, that would mean a total of a 100k increase (best case scenario) for the PS3 as a direct result of this game.

I thought it was a pretty simple conclusion.
And how it that a BAD thing? That's my issue with your comment. You make it sound like MGS4 has done nothing and in the larger scheme is a failure for the PS3. But in reality, it has done exactly what it set out to do. It has sold as consistently as previous entries, and it has increased the userbase about as well as it could have ever hoped to, based on how many people in Japan buy MGS games.
 

lsslave

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PistolGrip said:
I have a great idea!!!

Since you are the only one making assumptions, why dont you make a self ban bet for a month if PS3 doesnt drop below 10K for the next 2 months. How about it? Its super easy I think.
Because realistically there is nothing big for the next 2 months to keep it going, maybe 1 month but it will probably drop off a bit, actually for the next while the PS3 doesn't have much since a lot of Japanese centric titles haven't been announced (which is odd since Japan seems like a good market to target with MS being dead in water there)

Tron 2.0 said:
I would argue they mean a lot.

And this is a Japanese sales thread. We're not arguing the possibility of the PS3 being number two or its relationship to the 360 in Europe and the States. It's already sealed in Japan.
I am just pointing out that someone is speaking doom for PS3 in Japan when it really doesn't matter, #1 is claimed and #2 is PS3 easily (everyone can say Wii can lose but it doesn't seem the hype is going away and we haven't even hit E3 yet)

The only places where there really is a deciding factor between Sony and MS is USA and EU, but EU looks to be PS3 oriented so USA is the only HARD place to figure out which one could win

I think the sales matter, but in terms of a system that does not have many Japanese centric titles released so far it is doing pretty well for itself
 

Arde5643

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Heehee, PL and duckroll - never stop what you do.

I love this continuous and data supported back and forth discussion. :D
 
duckroll said:
And how it that a BAD thing? That's my issue with your comment. You make it sound like MGS4 has done nothing and in the larger scheme is a failure for the PS3. But in reality, it has done exactly what it set out to do. It has sold as consistently as previous entries, and it has increased the userbase about as well as it could have ever hoped to, based on how many people in Japan buy MGS games.
This is true; I think it's PantherLotus's point that MGS's best isn't enough to mean much for the overall fate of PS3.
 

Vilix

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duckroll said:
And how it that a BAD thing? That's my issue with your comment. You make it sound like MGS4 has done nothing and in the larger scheme is a failure for the PS3. But in reality, it has done exactly what it set out to do. It has sold as consistently as previous entries, and it has increased the userbase about as well as it could have ever hoped to, based on how many people in Japan buy MGS games.

I believe he's saying this because in the larger scheme of things MGS4 will probably not be the breakout hit that the PS3 needs in order to really start competing. And that's what the console needs right now, IMO. The sooner that happens, the sooner the price drops come, the sooner the PS3 hit a mass market price.
 

PantherLotus

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^^ essentially, yes. What I said seems obvious to duckroll, but judging from the response it wasn't obvious to everyone. Which is why data was included in the "analysis." ;)

duckroll said:
And how it that a BAD thing? That's my issue with your comment. You make it sound like MGS4 has done nothing and in the larger scheme is a failure for the PS3. But in reality, it has done exactly what it set out to do. It has sold as consistently as previous entries, and it has increased the userbase about as well as it could have ever hoped to, based on how many people in Japan buy MGS games.
Excellent point duckroll, but I think we're crossing wires here. I will clarify:

1. I'm impressed by the MGS4 sales, and anybody that appreciates sales data would say the same.

2. I do not think MGS4 is a failure in the slightest, but I would contest exactly what Konami "set out to do" in relation to PS3 hardware sales.

3. I wasn't suggesting that it should have increased the PS3 userbase MORE, but rather that the entire PS3 userbase (2 million) is in essence essentially maxed out and that these sales point to that. I am suggesting that most people that ever intended on buying the PS3 to play MGS4 already owned one. I realize that you are saying that was "given," but I am suggesting that it was most definitely not, at least for this thread's audience.
 

lsslave

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JoshuaJSlone said:
This is true; I think it's PantherLotus's point that MGS's best isn't enough to mean much for the overall fate of PS3.
Which is an apt point, but anyone who thought MGS would carry the system was crazy, MGS series is fantastic and all, but it is kind of a niche title with a large audience

But you also have to remember that for a long time people said MGS wouldn't stand a chance on PS3 because of its userbase, I mean that whole 360 disc box set didn't come from nowhere, there has been arguing over this for a LONG time, and MGS is holding up to the series average count, which is a good thing.

Sure, it didn't do multi-millions and PS3 sold out everywhere, but the series has NEVER done that, it gave the PS3 its push and it sold as well as it was expected
 

PantherLotus

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I will take issue with that, though. Why is it that every HUGE game for the PS3, or GameCube, or w/e system is in 2nd place, why is it that every game has immediate revisionist history on what was expected out of it?

We can't every month point to the next huge release and say, "Wait 'till..." and then the week after it releases say "well we never expected it to increase hardware..."

==========

This directly correlates with how well the system sold BEFORE the games in question, doesn't it? I think the data will show that individual games rarely effect hardware long term, but rather that it's the initial launch of the product, combined with an overwhelming amount of software support that eventually leads to sustained hardware sales.
 

jarrod

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lsslave said:
The only places where there really is a deciding factor between Sony and MS is USA and EU, but EU looks to be PS3 oriented so USA is the only HARD place to figure out which one could win
Looking at the way both HD consoles have been selling to this point, I think 360's NA lead is pretty much insurmountable. PS3 just won't be able to make up that ground, at least not without some sort of (significantly) longer lifespan angle, by which point the successor platforms would probably be on shelves anyway already.
 

PantherLotus

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AnimeTheme said:
Can you just stop then, please?
Did you just quote 4 words from a block of text on the last page that you don't understand? Or are you suggesting that people bought MGS4 but don't own or intend to buy the PS3? Or did you just have nothing to say but wanted to get in on the action?
 
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Just to clarify since it seems from the discussion (or feces-slinging, depending upon your perspective) that there is some confusion on this point: marketing and advertising are not the same thing.

Basically, marketing is a much broader field and rather than being something done during a product's launch, should be a whole approach to doing business. In fact, most of the real work involved in marketing is done long before a product is even conceived. It's about defining who your customers are, what their needs are, how profitable they are, how you will reach them even before you decide what your product will be.

In essence, marketing (or advertising) isn't going to save the PS3, because most of the marketing is done already. Advertising and word-of-mouth won't do anything, again, because the market the PS3 can sell to using these tactics has been saturated. I could see how repositioning might save the PS3, but barring that, the marketing damage is done already.

EDIT: I wrote this post in response to someone saying that MGS4 would contribute to PS3's marketability. I wrote the post in bits and pieces while doing other stuff and by the time I hit send, the discussion had already moved on.

Also, by "save" the PS3, I mean "deliver sustained hardware sales".
 

Phife Dawg

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PantherLotus said:
That's awesome for MG4, but sad for the PS3. Why? First of all, no sales spike leading up to the title. At 10,586 units sold last week, the anticipatory buy-in was a resounding "meh." That is the first red flag.
You do know that there were bundles? If you are a MGS fan and decide to "jump in" why do it weeks before the bundles hit? Makes no sense.

Also sales have shown that MGS has one of the most dedicated fanbases (if the following weeks' numbers will be comparable to MGS2/3), it is to be expected that a lot of these fans already bought the console and that the effect on the mass market would be pretty much non-existant.

It does bring the console back into the limelight and could help it stabilize at a higher weekly average in the long run (I doubt it, but we'll have to wait at least until next week's numbers - if hw sales plummet down right to the 10-15k level I'd be inclined to agree that there isn't even a small glimmer of hope). Of course all the people expecting half of Japan to wait for the MGS4 bundle to jump in and boost PS3 to unbelievable heights were out of their minds, but we knew that before.

kswiston said:
I don't think this week's sales were a given. MGS4 more than doubled the previous first week sales record for a PS3 game. These sales seem obvious in hindsight, but almost the entirety of GAF (myself included) majorly underpredicted MGS4's sales potential just a little over a week ago. Some were even predicting sub 200k debuts.
Very true. But the ones predicting sub 200k first week were not being serious (I hope).

kswiston said:
If there wasn't such a drought of must have titles on the PS3 (we are lucky to get one game with the potential to do 100k+ every month or two at this point), weekly sales would never have been in the sub-10k range to begin with.
That can be attributed to Sony's positioning of the PS3. With increased developer budgets and generally higher financial risks involved we will never see as many releases on PS3 as we have seen on PS2, or will see on Wii. Plus, must-have titles are always few between, this is not different for Wii. And with fewer releases the games have all the limelight for themselves.
 

AnimeTheme

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PantherLotus said:
Did you just quote 4 words from a block of text on the last page that you don't understand? Or are you suggesting that people bought MGS4 but don't own or intend to buy the PS3? Or did you just have nothing to say but wanted to get in on the action?
You started your "analysis" at the beginning without even knowing that PS3 sold 70k this week (Fami). duckroll pointed out correctly that you know shits about MGS and its sales history. Now who don't really understand?


3. I wasn't suggesting that it should have increased the PS3 userbase MORE, but rather that the entire PS3 userbase (2 million) is in essence essentially maxed out and that these sales point to that. I am suggesting that most people that ever intended on buying the PS3 to play MGS4 already owned one. I realize that you are saying that was "given," but I am suggesting that it was most definitely not, at least for this thread's audience.
MGS4 is the biggest PS3 game so far, and it achieves that by outselling all other games' LTD with just the opening week sales. The first week sales is in line with the sales level of the series in the past, which is pretty amazing if you consider the huge drops we have seen for other PS3 games that were previously million sellers in PS2 (and MGS was never a million seller at all). It boosts the hardware sales by 700% to 70k, the 3rd biggest week since PS3 launch. Considering the current market trend and the current situation of PS3, the sales performance of MGS4 is better than most people expected in every way. I really don't know what you are expecting.

I don't think anyone here is silly enough to expect a single game (which wasn't even a million-selling series) to turn the whole console market upside down. Yeah, it was "given". That said, there is still an impact from this game, and the full effect is yet to be seen. Stop downplaying it at this point with your bold and "crazy" assumptions.
 

PantherLotus

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I've said numerous times that the difference between 50k and 70k hardware units sold is irrelevant.
 

PantherLotus

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I'd also like to note how nice is it is to see so many fresh faces in the Media Create thread this week. Did I miss a free coupon or something?
 

Yoshichan

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1. [PS3] Metal Gear Solid 4 Guns of the Patriots (Konami) - 465,000
Sweet JEEEEEEEESUS.
 

PantherLotus

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AnimeTheme said:
You started your "analysis" at the beginning without even knowing that PS3 sold 70k this week (Fami). duckroll pointed out correctly that you know shits about MGS and its sales history. Now who don't really understand?
Why? Can you speak intelligently about MGS sales history? How many copies did MGS sell the first week on the PS1? How many units did the PS1 increase the same week? How many copies did MGS2 sell its first week? How many units did the PS2 increase when MGS2 was released? How many units did the PS2 increase when MGS3 released? What exactly do you know and why do you think this is a valid point?

AnimeTheme said:
MGS4 is the biggest PS3 game so far, and it achieves that by outselling all other games' LTD with just the opening week sales. The first week sales is in line with the sales level of the series in the past, which is pretty amazing if you consider the huge drops we have seen for other PS3 games that were previously million sellers in PS2 (and MGS was never a million seller at all). It boosts the hardware sales by 700% to 70k, the 3rd biggest week since PS3 launch. Considering the current market trend and the current situation of PS3, the sales performance of MGS4 is better than most people expected in every way. I really don't know what you are expecting.

I don't think anyone here is silly enough to expect a single game (which wasn't even a million-selling series) to turn the whole console market upside down. Yeah, it was "given". That said, there is still an impact from this game, and the full effect is yet to be seen. Stop downplaying it at this point with your bold and "crazy" assumptions.
So it either IS the biggest PS3 game so far or it isn't. In one breath people are saying "it was never expected to be the biggest game," and yet here you are in the next saying how successful it is.

You then use one of my favorite statistical tools, called "bullshit." By claiming "700%," you're intending the recipient to assume that 700% of anything must be a lot. Especially when it's the 3RD BIGGEST WEEK EVER!!

And clearly nobody would expect this single game to turn the whole console market upside down, yet here you and a band of others are, defending this title's impact on PS3 sales like you've never seen data analysis before.

I stated something obvious but supported it with evidence and all of you guys jump out of the bushes saying WHAT DID YOU EXPECT LOLZ?! Only duckroll said something remotely intelligent regarding expectations and I'm not sure what the rest of your points are.

1. MGS4 sold really good, but not so good that we didn't expect it
2. PS3 hardware increased, but not so much that we didn't expect it
3. MGS4 is the biggest title on the PS3 but shouldn't be expected to increase hardware sales
4. PantherLotus said 50k instead of 70k!!! LOLZ!!

Right?
 

sphinx

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Brak said:
Sort of disappointing that all of the people buying PS3s (over 70k according to Famitsu)didn't pick up some other games with MGS4.

2 games in the top 30? :/
it happens with some games, I know people who only bought N64 and/or Gamecube for the zelda games, ONLY and exclusively for that. After finishing the game(s) they got rid of the consoles not even thinking there could be other games.

vinnks reports about any changes in supply of used PS3s a month after MGS4 will come in handy.
 

duckroll

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PantherLotus said:
I will take issue with that, though. Why is it that every HUGE game for the PS3, or GameCube, or w/e system is in 2nd place, why is it that every game has immediate revisionist history on what was expected out of it?

We can't every month point to the next huge release and say, "Wait 'till..." and then the week after it releases say "well we never expected it to increase hardware..."
I agree completely. People that keep going "wait until xxx" and then backpeddle are really annoying. I just personally never expected MGS4 to single handedly change the fate of the PS3, to believe any one game can do that is ridiculous. What I do believe is that the critical and fan acclaim for MGS4, along with the huge strides it has made in technical achivement and polish, might hopefully inspire Japanese developers to just try harder on the damn system. If there's a constant flow of good quality Japanese software on the PS3, that will improve things, not one singular game.

Considering the sizable drop off for previously released PS3 titles from strong PS brand series, I didn't remotely expect MGS4 to perform like it did, and the fact that it did is comforting - simply because it shows that for certain products Japan still gives a shit. But let's not kid ourselves. I'm more optimistic for PS3 hardware dropping off immediately - I don't think it'll happen. Every time the PS3 had a sharp rise in hardware, it took at least 3-4 weeks before it dropped back to 10k a week. We might be seeing a gradual drop off instead: 50k next week, 40k the week after, etc.

In the long run, none of that makes a difference because it just means that unless something else is released before that 3-4 week dropoff period ends that wows the public again, people will stop being caught up in the moment of hype. Momentum is what Sony lacks because their release schedule continues to hinge on major releases. There's very little in-between at all, and the titles released between major releases are pretty insignificant to say the least.

I'll just make it clear that I don't for a moment have any pity for people that sit at the edge of their seats expecting every new major release on the PS3 to change everything. The day that people are no longer sitting on the edge of their seats for every major release on the PS3 - that is the day that Sony would have successfully changed their position in the market. When people are happy enough with a wide variety of games that range from "good" to "great" but aren't nessessarily major releases - that is when the release flow on the PS3 is stablized.
 

justchris

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Phife Dawg said:
Very true. But the ones predicting sub 200k first week were not being serious (I hope).
Oh, they were very serious. It's important to remember that MGS4 has proven to be an exception to the rule of software sales on the PS3. While the reasons for it doing so well are understandable, and even obvious in hindsight, all the reasons for it not to have done as well were just as clear and reasonable.
 

PantherLotus

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duckroll: you're a cool dude. I would like you to respond to my fundamental assertion that nearly everybody that was going to ever buy a PS3 already has. I think that there was some understated belief in previous threads that some people have been holding out for certain titles combined with price drops and that has absolutely been proven false.

sphinx said:
it happens with some games, I know people who only bought N64 and/or Gamecube for the zelda games, ONLY and exclusively for that. After finishing the game(s) they got rid of the consoles not even thinking there could be other games.

vinnks reports about any changes in supply of used PS3s a month after MGS4 will come in handy.
That's what I'm alluding to, although it probably wasn't required. On the GC: Just as certain HUGE franchises (or unhuge after it went on sale) didn't noticeably increase hardware for longer than a few weeks, it also didn't magically "get the ball rolling" once some imaginary set of prerequisites were met, and sales never increased past their certain expectation.

But somehow what I'm saying is so shocking, so ear-bleedingly awful, that I've apparently caused at least 3 conniption fits tonight.


And anecdotes aren't evidence. ;)
 

sphinx

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PantherLotus said:
Why? Can you speak intelligently about MGS sales history? How many copies did MGS sell the first week on the PS1? How many units did the PS1 increase the same week? How many copies did MGS2 sell its first week? How many units did the PS2 increase when MGS2 was released? How many units did the PS2 increase when MGS3 released? What exactly do you know and why do you think this is a valid point?


So it either IS the biggest PS3 game so far or it isn't. In one breath people are saying "it was never expected to be the biggest game," and yet here you are in the next saying how successful it is.

You then use one of my favorite statistical tools, called "bullshit." By claiming "700%," you're intending the recipient to assume that 700% of anything must be a lot. Especially when it's the 3RD BIGGEST WEEK EVER!!

And clearly nobody would expect this single game to turn the whole console market upside down, yet here you and a band of others are, defending this title's impact on PS3 sales like you've never seen data analysis before.

I stated something obvious but supported it with evidence and all of you guys jump out of the bushes saying WHAT DID YOU EXPECT LOLZ?! Only duckroll said something remotely intelligent regarding expectations and I'm not sure what the rest of your points are.

1. MGS4 sold really good, but not so good that we didn't expect it
2. PS3 hardware increased, but not so much that we didn't expect it
3. MGS4 is the biggest title on the PS3 but shouldn't be expected to increase hardware sales
4. PantherLotus said 50k instead of 70k!!! LOLZ!!

Right?
you have lots of good points but in between the lines, you are trying to smack down any PS3 supporters and their hopes with the force of your data analysis. I guess you get some awkward responses because even if you were 100% correct, you seem with urgence to state clearly that either MGS4 or PS3 fails, which in light of a rarely seen, very respectable sales week for PS3, makes you look like a dick.
 

Brak

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sphinx said:
it happens with some games, I know people who only bought N64 and/or Gamecube for the zelda games, ONLY and exclusively for that. After finishing the game(s) they got rid of the consoles not even thinking there could be other games.

vinnks reports about any changes in supply of used PS3s a month after MGS4 will come in handy.
Yeah, it will be interesting to see how many people drop their PS3s in a couple of weeks.
 

duckroll

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PantherLotus said:
That's what I'm alluding to, although it probably wasn't required. On the GC: Just as certain HUGE franchises (or unhuge after it went on sale) didn't noticeably increase hardware for longer than a few weeks, it also didn't magically "get the ball rolling" once some imaginary set of prerequisites were met, and sales never increased past their certain expectation.
I'm guilty. I bought a GC to play Wind Waker. Loved it. But the only games I bought after that were Smash Brothers, Tales of Symphonia, Baten Kaitos, Viewtiful Joe and Resident Evil 4. I doubt that really helped general GC sales at all, but it's a good example of how only having big titles that people look forward to can really hurt the system's lifespan on a whole.

I casually buy PS2, DS, PSP and Xbox360 games all the time, but so far I've generally only bought "big" titles for the PS3. When there's nothing to casually buy, the system is kinda fucked.
 

Steroyd

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XiaNaphryz said:
Well, he has recent historical trends to base that on, which were with franchises that are bigger in the Japanese market than MGS is. And he is correct that the hardware bump isn't really all that big a leap, similar to GTA4 and HW sales in the west. So it's not like he's saying it for the sake of pissing people off.
Not comparable because MGS4 is exclusive to one to one system. :p

GTA4's impact on hardware sales suffered because it lacked an identity to a specific piece of hardware, consumers were stuck with the choice or either PS3 or Xbox 360, and i wouldn't be surprised if that indecision cannabalised hardware sales between the 2 consoles.

With MGS4 is as simple as "if you want this game you need this one console"
 

PantherLotus

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sphinx said:
you have lots of good points but in between the lines, you are trying to smack down any PS3 supporters and their hopes with the force of your data analysis. I guess you get some awkward responses because even if you were 100% correct, you seem with urgence to state clearly that either MGS4 or PS3 fails, which in light of a rarely seen, very respectable sales week for PS3, makes you look like a dick.
You know, I really didn't consider that: I apologize to myself and other PS3 supporters for being a dick.

MGS4 sales are awesome and let's hope that hardware will see some increases for a couple more weeks!!






but anybody can type up that tripe. how many can make conclusions from it?
 

Tmac

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Dec 26, 2006
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Thats the ultimate nightmare for microsoft.

Sony had leveled worldwide sales with the 360 for a while now. But their console was pretty much dead on japan too. If it starts to sell at a decent rate on japan, will be a big problem for microsoft worldwide.


--------

Btw, why havent microsft halved the 360 japane price yet? Worldwide wise, microsoft needs a pricedrop ASAP.
 

Arde5643

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sphinx said:
I guess you get some awkward responses because even if you were 100% correct, you seem with urgence to state clearly that either MGS4 or PS3 fails, which in light of a rarely seen, very respectable sales week for PS3, makes you look like a dick.
PantherLotus
Professional Dick.
(Today, 07:14 AM)
Reply | Quote




Fixed.
:D :D
 

Gaborn

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sphinx said:
you have lots of good points but in between the lines, you are trying to smack down any PS3 supporters and their hopes with the force of your data analysis. I guess you get some awkward responses because even if you were 100% correct, you seem with urgence to state clearly that either MGS4 or PS3 fails, which in light of a rarely seen, very respectable sales week for PS3, makes you look like a dick.
Ummm... what's the point of hoping if you're dissuaded by mere facts? Surely it's best to know the facts and STILL hope the trendlines change to fit your hopes. I mean, "reading between the lines" it seems that your objection to Panther's analysis is that it makes "hopes" for a PS3 comeback of some kind look less likely. I mean, are you seriously looking at the numbers? It's been virtually impossible for at least 6 months now (and arguably much longer than that). But that's not the point. "hope" has never required facts, or numbers getting in the way... well, wait, actually the POINT of hope is that numbers ARE getting in the way and providing an obstacle. And you believe the PS3 can overcome them? Dandy, Panther's showing you data about the situation the PS3 is in.
 

PantherLotus

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Gaborn said:
Ummm... what's the point of hoping if you're dissuaded by mere facts? Surely it's best to know the facts and STILL hope the trendlines change to fit your hopes. I mean, "reading between the lines" it seems that your objection to Panther's analysis is that it makes "hopes" for a PS3 comeback of some kind look less likely. I mean, are you seriously looking at the numbers? It's been virtually impossible for at least 6 months now (and arguably much longer than that)
If anything, that is what should have prevented me from even trying. But sometimes I look at something and say..."that CAN'T be right." But there it is, smacking me in the face and insisting that I point it out to others.

duckroll: if you played windwaker, you did your part.

sphinx: truly no hard feelings intended.
 

Gaborn

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PantherLotus said:
If anything, that is what should have prevented me from even trying. But sometimes I look at something and say..."that CAN'T be right." But there it is, smacking me in the face and insisting that I point it out to others.
Yeah, I mean, I can understand someone's desire to see their console of choice succeed, but at some point the numbers are just so tilted against it, and the trends that you've so ably demonstrated are so set (especially the YOY charts to show how the trend is more or less holding up) that barring some new titanic shift in the market towards the PS3 the race in Japan is over, and right now there's nothing obvious that can, by itself, change everything all at once.
 

Phife Dawg

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JoshuaJSlone said:
It's not like that's some oddball low prediction. Counting MGS4, there are now a whole two PS3 games with first weeks over 200K.

EDIT: Hell, there are only six Wii games with first weeks over 200K.
I thought it was a case of lowballing (for whatever reasons), this is, while not being the biggest PS2 franchise, one of the biggest budget games ever and one where Sony and Konami laid all their eggs into one basket, including ad campaign, bundles etc. It was also known that the fanbase is dedicated - I thought it was pretty much a given that it would outperform DMC4 (of course I didn't think it was THAT dedicated - I didn't think it would match the previous two MGS).

Did what I could for the eager ones:

11. Wii Sports, Wii
12. Taiko 7 Islands, DS
13. Make a Pro Baseball Team, DS (that one got up by quite a bit)
14. Fuamirii Toreenaa, Wii (Family Trainer - you got to love Katakana :D )
15. Valhalla Knights 2, PSP
16. Wii Play, Wii
17. Mario Kart, DS (up again, this game is just wow)
18. We are Fossil Diggers, DS (holding steady)
19. Pokemon Ranger, DS
20. DS (Gave me the fits, but since it has training in it, should be that Riddle Training from last week)
21. DS (No idea :lol , doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me)
22. Link's Bowgun Training, Wii (holding quite steady)
23. TOEIC Test, DS
24. Smash Brothers, Wii (slowly rising)
25. Endless Frontier Robot Wars OG, DS (fast decline)
26. Tottado! Deserted Island Life, DS
27. New Super Mario Brothers, DS (slowly rising as well - this is just insane)
28. More Brain Training (rising as well? they can't be serious)
29. Famicon Wars VS, Wii (Battalion Wars, holding surprisingly steady)
30. Poket Monster Diamond, DS (rising as well, what the hell?)
 

Pistolero

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Oct 11, 2006
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Well, at least Nintendo made of their fans the best charts analysts ever. Christ ! When finally an epic game succeeded in drawing attention, the whole clan reunites to predict doom and gloom. Can't people enjoy games instead of killing each others over COMAPNIES hit-parade smashes ? :D
 

Hammer24

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Feb 15, 2007
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Vinnk, if you do another of your reports, I´d like to know how the situation with used MGS4 and PS3´s is. Do people keep them or sell them back?