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[Mefisutoferesu]

In the long run, none of that makes a difference because it just means that unless something else is released before that 3-4 week dropoff period ends that wows the public again, people will stop being caught up in the moment of hype. Momentum is what Sony lacks because their release schedule continues to hinge on major releases. There's very little in-between at all, and the titles released between major releases are pretty insignificant to say the least.

I'll just make it clear that I don't for a moment have any pity for people that sit at the edge of their seats expecting every new major release on the PS3 to change everything. The day that people are no longer sitting on the edge of their seats for every major release on the PS3 - that is the day that Sony would have successfully changed their position in the market. When people are happy enough with a wide variety of games that range from "good" to "great" but aren't nessessarily major releases - that is when the release flow on the PS3 is stablized.

I'm guilty. I bought a GC to play Wind Waker. Loved it. But the only games I bought after that were Smash Brothers, Tales of Symphonia, Baten Kaitos, Viewtiful Joe and Resident Evil 4. I doubt that really helped general GC sales at all, but it's a good example of how only having big titles that people look forward to can really hurt the system's lifespan on a whole.

I casually buy PS2, DS, PSP and Xbox360 games all the time, but so far I've generally only bought "big" titles for the PS3. When there's nothing to casually buy, the system is kinda fucked.

I agree completely, but it's a chicken and the egg scenario. You could argue the only reason PS3 owners are buying big name games is that they're starved for anything else, and like wise developers aren't flocking to the platform because only the big name games are selling. So how do you solve this? Price is a factor and Wii and DS draining the casual out from under PS3/360 doesn't help. Should Sony produce a bunch of B/C tier products or money hat 3rd party B/C tier products? Change identity to a more elite product (like with the bravia line)? Or what? It really seems like a fate that's actually inescapable to me. GC, N64, and many others never were able to escape it... what makes Sony special? Or are you saying they're not, and I just missed something?

 

[AnimeTheme]

duckroll: you're a cool dude. I would like you to respond to my fundamental assertion that nearly everybody that was going to ever buy a PS3 already has. I think that there was some understated belief in previous threads that some people have been holding out for certain titles combined with price drops and that has absolutely been proven false.

I try not to nip pick on your choice of words, but still "nearly everybody that was going to ever buy a PS3 already has" just sounds ridiculous. Are you predicting that PS3 LTD won't reach 4M or even 3M when all set and done?

"there was some understated belief in previous threads that some people have been holding out for certain titles combined with price drops and that has absolutely been proven false"... huh? How can you ABSOLUTELY prove something that hasn't even happened? Previous cases may support the saying that price cuts and one or two big titles alone are not enough to change the fate of a console, but no matter how slim the chance is, to say for absolute certainty that this won't happen for PS3 (especially when the current price of PS3 is still beyond the mainstream acceptance, and titles which are potentially several times bigger than MGS are yet to come) just makes no sense. I know you are a firm believer of hard figures and statistics.... but not to this ridiculous state I suppose?

 

[Phife Dawg]

Oh, they were very serious. It's important to remember that MGS4 has proven to be an exception to the rule of software sales on the PS3. While the reasons for it doing so well are understandable, and even obvious in hindsight, all the reasons for it not to have done as well were just as clear and reasonable.

My prediction was 300k first week, so it's not from hindsight. Expecting this to perform not as well as DMC4's first week wasn't really reasonable imo.

Not comparable because MGS4 is exclusive to one to one system.

GTA4's impact on hardware sales suffered because it lacked an identity to a specific piece of hardware, consumers were stuck with the choice or either PS3 or Xbox 360, and i wouldn't be surprised if that indecision cannabalised hardware sales between the 2 consoles.

With MGS4 is as simple as "if you want this game you need this one console"

You still need either a 360 or a PS3 to play GTAIV and even combined the hw sales were disappointing to say the least. And I don't get the indecision part, are you saying that because the consumer had the choice between buying two plattforms to play the game he opted not to play the game and buy either plattform at all?

Thats the ultimate nightmare for microsoft.

Sony had leveled worldwide sales with the 360 for a while now. But their console was pretty much dead on japan too. If it starts to sell at a decent rate on japan, will be a big problem for microsoft worldwide.

Btw, why havent microsft halved the 360 japane price yet? Worldwide wise, microsoft needs a pricedrop ASAP.

Why? I think before the PS3 launched, everyone, including MS, expected PS3 to perform a LOT better in Japan. Even if MGS4 has a long term effect it's not going to take PS3 where it was expected to be in a short time.

And why half the price and take big losses when the effect would be negligable. MS just had a price-drop in Europe btw. Premium 259 €, Arcade 199 € (Wii 249 €).

 

[justchris]

My prediction was 300k first week, so it's not from hindsight. Expecting this to perform not as well as DMC4's first week wasn't really reasonable imo.

Well, I meant in hindsight to those who predicted <200k first week. Clearly, those who predicted higher, had their reasons for it as well, and it would appear their reasoning was superior.

Why? I think before the PS3 launched, everyone, including MS, expected PS3 to perform a LOT better in Japan. Even if MGS4 has a long term effect it's not going to take PS3 where it was expected to be in a short time.

And why half the price and take big losses when the effect would be negligable. MS just had a price-drop in Europe btw. Premium 259 €, Arcade 199 € (Wii 249 €).

Actually, I agree with him (not about the pricedrop, about the nightmare for microsoft). Before launch, the industry expected things to go differently than they have. However, things didn't go as expected, so instead of being satisfied with that, MS should be looking to take advantage of the situation.

They should be working hard to strengthen their position in Japan & Europe. The goal is not to beat the PS3, not really. The goal is to strengthen their brand for going forward into the next generation. A modest pricedrop in Japan (halving the price is just ridiculous) is an option, but I'm not ready to say it'd actually be their best option at this point. But certainly something to consider.

 

[The Innocent X]

They should be working hard to strengthen their position in Japan & Europe. The goal is not to beat the PS3, not really. The goal is to strengthen their brand for going forward into the next generation. .

So as week after week goes by and there are more Japanese centric games coming out for 360, games that no-one would have thought would ever come to 360 just 2 years ago, you think that MS isn't trying hard enough? Very harsh judgement. They aren't necessarily succeeding, but I'd argue they are trying harder than anyone could expect given the returns.

 

[justchris]

So as week after week goes by and there are more Japanese centric games coming out for 360, games that no-one would have thought would ever come to 360 just 2 years ago, you think that MS isn't trying hard enough? Very harsh judgement. They aren't necessarily succeeding, but I'd argue they are trying harder than anyone could expect given the returns.

Okay, yes, it would be harsh to claim they aren't trying hard, but simply having the games isn't enough. They need to do more to change the image of the 360 in Japan, since that more than anything appears to be the system's problem. There's no guarantee they'll succeed whatever they do, but it's at least worth a shot.

Not that I'm saying they should sacrifice profitability for marketshare, though. I don't agree with anyone supporting massive pricecuts (even though, personally, I'd really like them to cut the price in the US so I could buy one without feeling bad about it).

 

[The Innocent X]

Okay, yes, it would be harsh to claim they aren't trying hard, but simply having the games isn't enough. They need to do more to change the image of the 360 in Japan, since that more than anything appears to be the system's problem. There's no guarantee they'll succeed whatever they do, but it's at least worth a shot.

Not that I'm saying they should sacrifice profitability for marketshare, though. I don't agree with anyone supporting massive pricecuts (even though, personally, I'd really like them to cut the price in the US so I could buy one without feeling bad about it).

What image would sell the 360 to the japanese? They are never going to be a casual gaming choice in japan, when they can't capture those gamers in the rest of the world. They have gone for the hardcore gamer crowd, and are pumping out shmups and jrpgs. The trouble is that the hardcore crowd is probably about 3 million tops. Price is not an issue for hardcore, and 360 is already relatively cheap in japan compared to other territories. MS just have to sit back, aim for double xbox userbase, and build on the fact that they now have increased thier mindshare, even if only in a small percentage of the population.

 

[spineduke]

I'm not really into salesage, but how effective of a jumpstart could a redesign+price cut of the ps3 be?

Seems a bit whack to start on a ps4 without considering the option (especially in light of the lite's success)

 

[Raist]

A PS3 exclusive sells ~500k units on its first week, hardware sales increased by 600%, and it's bad for the PS3.
Some analyses never cease to amaze in MC threads.


Anyway. I think MGS4 will drop quite a lot next week. Probably in the bottom of Top 10.
I hope I'm wrong tho. It really deserves great sales.

 

[Phife Dawg]

Well, at least Nintendo made of their fans the best charts analysts ever. Christ ! When finally an epic game succeeded in drawing attention, the whole clan reunites to predict doom and gloom. Can't people enjoy games instead of killing each others over COMAPNIES hit-parade smashes ?

Uhm, what does that have to do with a sales thread? It's always the same: People coming into sales threads, complaining that people are talking about sales, instead of how fun these games are. Makes them look kind of dense.

Well, I meant in hindsight to those who predicted <200k first week. Clearly, those who predicted higher, had their reasons for it as well, and it would appear their reasoning was superior.

Actually, I agree with him (not about the pricedrop, about the nightmare for microsoft). Before launch, the industry expected things to go differently than they have. However, things didn't go as expected, so instead of being satisfied with that, MS should be looking to take advantage of the situation.

They should be working hard to strengthen their position in Japan & Europe. The goal is not to beat the PS3, not really. The goal is to strengthen their brand for going forward into the next generation. A modest pricedrop in Japan (halving the price is just ridiculous) is an option, but I'm not ready to say it'd actually be their best option at this point. But certainly something to consider.

Business goals are usually set in advance, of course when using continuous planing these goals can constantly get revised, but like you suggested I think MS' goal was and still is to strengthen their brand and eventually make profit, not aim for market leadership. A price drop may prove benefitial in the short run in gaining marketshare but I think it's not in an appropriate relation to the investment (in form of reduced revenue per piece of hardware). Dropping the price in Europe didn't do all that much and would probably achieve even less in Japan.

I try not to nip pick on your choice of words, but still "nearly everybody that was going to ever buy a PS3 already has" just sounds ridiculous. Are you predicting that PS3 LTD won't reach 4M or even 3M when all set and done?

"there was some understated belief in previous threads that some people have been holding out for certain titles combined with price drops and that has absolutely been proven false"... huh? How can you ABSOLUTELY prove something that hasn't even happened? Previous cases may support the saying that price cuts and one or two big titles alone are not enough to change the fate of a console, but no matter how slim the chance is, to say for absolute certainty that this won't happen for PS3 (especially when the current price of PS3 is still beyond the mainstream acceptance, and titles which are potentially several times bigger than MGS are yet to come) just makes no sense. I know you are a firm believer of hard figures and statistics.... but not to this ridiculous state I suppose?

The current price of PS3 is the same as the PS2's launch price, no? That was the price cut from last year btw (accompanying DW with bundle, 40G, Schockaxis and the new colour ceramic white). Up until its first price cut from 40k to 35k Yen the PS2 sold over 4million. What is the mainstream acceptance price in your opinion?

And which are the titles that are potentially bigger than MGS and yet to come? I can only think of 2: FF and GT, other franchises have already been released (HSG etc.), are definetly not coming to PS3 (DQ) or we simply don't know where they are going yet (KH). This is something I agree with Panther, the "you just wait..." approach has been proven false, even in the light of 77k PS3s sold.

 

[Vinnk]

I'm not really into salesage, but how effective of a jumpstart could a redesign+price cut of the ps3 be?

Seems a bit whack to start on a ps4 without considering the option (especially in light of the lite's success)

If the PS3 was a portable it might make a difference but the PS3 doesn't get any real benefit from a redesign. It might bring up sales temporarily but one simply cannot expect the same thing that happened with the PSP or the DS lite to happen with the PS3. But those portable are significantly better with their redesigns, the PS3 would only be smaller. It would impact it in the same way as the PStwo or a new color. Temporary bump followed by sales as usual.

A price cut might frankly be about the same. The PS3 is a much lower price than when it launched but other than this week it is actually tracking lower sales this year than when it was more expensive last year.

 

[Man God]

The PS3 is the GCN, only with worse 1st party efforts (especially from the Japan side!) and better 3rd party efforts.

People in Japan will pick them up for big titles and then resell them for more money to buy DS games. I wouldn't be too shocked if MGS4 is number one next week, yet I wouldn't be too shocked if it wasn't.

 

[AnimeTheme]

The current price of PS3 is the same as the PS2's launch price, no? That was the price cut from last year btw (accompanying DW with bundle, 40G, Schockaxis and the new colour ceramic white). Up until its first price cut from 40k to 35k Yen the PS2 sold over 4million. What is the mainstream acceptance price in your opinion?

PS3 is nearly 2 years old, with a price no cheaper than a launch console, and still being the highest among all current competitors. I think the majority of people are expecting it to have a price point lower than that of PS2's launch at the very least.

And which are the titles that are potentially bigger than MGS and yet to come? I can only think of 2: FF and GT, other franchises have already been released (HSG etc.), are definetly not coming to PS3 (DQ) or we simply don't know where they are going yet (KH). This is something I agree with Panther, the "you just wait..." approach has been proven false, even in the light of 77k PS3s sold.

Don't get me wrong. Generally I agree that the "you just wait..." approach is unrealistic, but I just wouldn't say or even try to "prove" it for "absolute" certainty, since it has not happened yet. MGS was never a million seller, yet MGS4 has beaten DW, HGS and WE, all these previous million sellers in terms of both sw and hw sales, and we have yet to see if it may have any degree of substantial effect on the sales of PS3. At the very least, we still have FF(s) which should be several times bigger than MGS4.

And I still think there are quite some people out there "waiting" to buy PS3. Maybe they are not waiting for a certain game, but they can be waiting for some 'incentives" combined. The last installment of Winning Eleven still sells nearly 1M combined (PS2+PS3+XB360), in line with its previous sales. We can say for sure that the WE fanbase is still there with no shrinking. For those who are still playing it on PS2 and will still stick with the WE series for years to come, where will they go? They can't be on PS2 forever. You can tell it won't be 360, and it's unlikely to be Wii. Maybe with a lower price point, a bigger game library and some other old (BD) and new features (firmware updates?), they can choose PS3, eventually. Similar things can happen for other PS-brand games.

 

[test_account]

The current price of PS3 is the same as the PS2's launch price, no? That was the price cut from last year btw (accompanying DW with bundle, 40G, Schockaxis and the new colour ceramic white). Up until its first price cut from 40k to 35k Yen the PS2 sold over 4million. What is the mainstream acceptance price in your opinion?

To be fair, when the PS2 was launched there wasnt really a competitive console on the market like the Wii is today. You had Dreamcast etc., but i dont think they were as popular as the Wii is today.

Price is definitly a factor that counts when the majority of people are going to buy things, especially if its about relatively much money, but popularity and interest must also be there. So far it seems that Wii is the family/mainstream console just like the PS2 most likely was back in the days. It seems that people are more interested in the Wii than the PS3 and i dont think the only reason for that is because that the Wii is cheaper to buy. Back in the days when the PS2 were launched i guess that the PS2 was the console that most people were interested in and that is why it sold the most.

A lower price can definitly result in that more people get interested in the PS3 (or whatever product that get cheaper for that sake), but in today's console market with the Wii being more popular and still its fairly cheaper than the PS3, i dont think its possible for the PS3 to sell as much as PS2 did at its launch price eventhough that the PS3 costs the same as the PS2 did at launch, within the relatively same time frame atleast.

 

[Fafalada]

If the PS3 was a portable it might make a difference but the PS3 doesn't get any real benefit from a redesign.

Ultimately that's for marketing to show and consumer to decide no? People don't jump on a smaller machine 'just because' - each of the recent popular redesigns had somewhat different things going for it(other then pure aesthetics), be they console or handheld, and respective marketing departments did their job on promoting those, not the fact that it was a redesign (ie. more of the same).

PSP especially left form-factor basically unchanged, the major change seemed to be in the marketing angle. Not that I'm pretending to know if they can do that for PS3 - but clearly they wouldn't just dump a slimmer hw on the market and sit on it.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I've just realized that this week's PS3 numbers will make for especially fun "PS3 catch-up" calculations.

I would like you to respond to my fundamental assertion that nearly everybody that was going to ever buy a PS3 already has.

I'm not duckroll, but I'd say that seems a bit premature. The types of calculations you did for MGS4 one could've done similarly with, say, Super Mario Sunshine. Obviously GCN didn't blast off to great success past that, but neither had it even reached half of its eventual total userbase.

Well, at least Nintendo made of their fans the best charts analysts ever. Christ !

:lol It's funny because it's true.

I'm not really into salesage, but how effective of a jumpstart could a redesign+price cut of the ps3 be?

Seems a bit whack to start on a ps4 without considering the option (especially in light of the lite's success)

Common wisdom seems to be that redesigns are more important for portables. However, in recent history the only major console redesigns we've seen have been for systems that were already successful (PS1, PS2), so we don't really have a basis for lasting effects of redesigns on secondary consoles.

A PS3 exclusive sells ~500k units on its first week, hardware sales increased by 600%, and it's bad for the PS3.
Some analyses never cease to amaze in MC threads.

It's basically the equivalent of when Halo 3 launched, sold millions, and X360 beat Wii for the month in the US.

And I still think there are quite some people out there "waiting" to buy PS3. Maybe they are not waiting for a certain game, but they can be waiting for some 'incentives" combined.

I buy this. I recently got a PS3, but if it wasn't for the BC and DS3 of the new 80 GB bundle and my desire to get a Blu-ray player, I'd have probably been able to hold out until FF XIII.

 

[The_lascar]

20. DS (Gave me the fits, but since it has training in it, should be that Riddle Training from last week)

It's Hirameki Training Kû Tore.
I go to the official website and look "Produced by Intelligent Systems and Good Feel (Wario Land Shake)"

 

[Phife Dawg]

It's Hirameki Training Kû Tore.
I go to the official website and look "Produced by Intelligent Systems and Good Feel (Wario Land Shake)"

Oh, interesting. Thanks.

PS3 is nearly 2 years old, with a price no cheaper than a launch console, and still being the highest among all current competitors. I think the majority of people are expecting it to have a price point lower than that of PS2's launch at the very least.

At least 4 million people were willing to spend that amount of money on a PS2 (even more if you factor in inflation). The majority of people are not having expectations in regards to where the predecessor was at its respective point in a lifecycle imo. They just look at the product and see if they if it's "worth it" and they can justify a purchase (at least that's how I do it). I don't think they compare prices like you suggest.

Don't get me wrong. Generally I agree that the "you just wait..." approach is unrealistic, but I just wouldn't say or even try to "prove" it for "absolute" certainty, since it has not happened yet. MGS was never a million seller, yet MGS4 has beaten DW, HGS and WE, all these previous million sellers in terms of both sw and hw sales, and we have yet to see if it may have any degree of substantial effect on the sales of PS3. At the very least, we still have FF(s) which should be several times bigger than MGS4.

Of course FF will be substantially bigger than MGS4, that's for sure, but I don't think that was dismissed by anyone, more the general idea that this will win market leadership for Sony or even comes close to it ("you just wait for..."). Look at it this way, Wii will continue to sell and has things like Animal Crossing yet to come. It'll be next to impossible for PS3 to overcome Wii's lead, even if the post MGS4 PS3 settled at more than the 10k we've seen the last weeks, simply because Wii sells around 40k with no substantial release, PS3 77k with one.

I don't think Panther is argueing PS3 will just stop selling, just that these games don't have the effect of pulling enough people into buying a PS3 that it makes a difference in the end.

 

[Fischbrot]

Today Mario Baseball release for Wii?

 

[Stumpokapow]

If it starts to sell at a decent rate on japan, will be a big problem for microsoft worldwide.

Historically major games for second-place consoles have caused temporary spikes in hardware that have gone away without changing the overall pace of sales in the market. It's not likely that the PS3 will be substantially higher per week after MGS4 than it was before. It's possible, mind you, but not super likely.

Btw, why havent microsft halved the 360 japane price yet? Worldwide wise, microsoft needs a pricedrop ASAP.

I'd argue that they could use a pricedrop in the US, but in the EU they're already below the Wii with the arcade pack. Halving the price is nuts; companies don't mind being third in cardinal unit sales of consoles as long as they are profitable and build mindshare. Why would Microsoft sell something at a hundred+ dollar loss in a market where software is sufficiently slow (even for the 360, which has a higher tie ratio than the Wii or the PS3) that they're not likely to make any profit on the software end?

But also, Sony cut the PS3's price pretty substantially in Japan in the tail end of last year, coinciding roughly with the white PS3 and Dynasty Warriors 6. The result? Temporary sales spike. Baseline unchanged if not a little lower than last year.

Today Mario Baseball release for Wii?

GCN Mario Baseball - 61k first week on 229k lifetime. Released July (roughly same time of year) of 2005, so GCN hardware was pretty close to its last legs, although the Wii installed base is still higher.

I'd be conservative with predictions since by all accounts this is not a very good game and Strikers Charged underperformed Mario Strikers.

 

[Raist]

It's basically the equivalent of when Halo 3 launched, sold millions, and X360 beat Wii for the month in the US.

So what ? Did people say that MGS4 would make the PS3 sell one gazillion units for weeks ? No. It would be highly unrealistic and stupid. It's MGS ffs, it's not exactly super duper popular in Japan.
But still, it's a decent performance, especially when you compare it to past iterations of the series.

Now, saying that this is bad for the PS3, I'm sorry but that sounds extremely stupid. In this case anything is bad for the PS3 at this point.
To be fair I somewhat expected it tho.

 

[kswiston]

What are people's predictions for Tales of Symphonia:KOR, considering that is the next biggish release?

I'm going to go with:

First Day: 100k
First Week: 140k
LTD: 230k

Could be completely off though.

 

[PantherLotus]

Agreed, Phife Dawg.

I'm not saying "the PS3 will never sell another unit," nor am I saying that it won't go on to reach 4 million some day.

I AM saying that of all the people that ever intended to buy the PS3 for MGS4, FFXIII, GT5, etc...that 80%-90% of those people already own the system. Even if the PS3 goes on to sell another 2 or 3 million consoles in Japan, it won't be because of these huge individual releases.

And while people are coming out of the woodwork now to say that "of course nobody would expect one title to make a difference," sometimes it helps to show why it is true.

 

[schuelma]

What are people's predictions for Tales of Symphonia:KOR, considering that is the next biggish release?

I'm going to go with:

First Day: 100k
First Week: 140k
LTD: 230k

Could be completely off though.

I think it could be significantly higher than that, if Namco is giving it a big shipment, which I don't know is happening.

The total Symphonia audience between the GC and PS2 is something around 700K, and even though it is a spin off it seems to be a pretty extensive one, so I think it has the potential to reach 350-400K.

However, we haven't heard any shipment numbers and I'm wondering if Namco is going to undership just because of the recent history of the Tales series not doing very well (also, in their financial statement they didn't have ToS:KoR in their chart of top projected sales..makes me wonder if they don't think this is going to do well).


IF Namco ships a lot, I can see:

1st day- 150K
1st week- 220K
LTD- 365K

 

[jakncoke]

With this huge week..does this put the PS3 in like with GC ltd? or is still tracking behind?

 

[Vinci]

You can do it, Shiren! Break 100k!

I can't believe how much I'm pulling for this little guy.

YOU CAN DO IT!

You can stand up to the titans for one more week. Just hang in there.

 

[schuelma]

I can't believe how much I'm pulling for this little guy.

YOU CAN DO IT!

You can stand up to the titans for one more week. Just hang in there.

It will break it, but we probably won't see it until the end of year list is released- it will probably exit the top 30 before hitting it.

 

[guina]

With this huge..does this put the PS3 in like with GC ltd? or is still tracking behind?

Going by famitsu numbers, PS3 is slight ahead and should pull away since the next holiday bump is favorable to the PS3. And thats assuming the PS3 will be back at 10k next week.

 

[jarrod]

What are people's predictions for Tales of Symphonia:KOR, considering that is the next biggish release?

More than Radiant Mythology, less than Legendia.

It will break it, but we probably won't see it until the end of year list is released- it will probably exit the top 30 before hitting it.

At just ~25k to go, I think it may hang on in the top 30 if it maintains some 5-10k weeks. Shiren DS more than doubled it's sales outside the top 30 fwiw, though it's ranking was likely pushed down comparably due to more seasonal competition.

 

[Vinci]

It will break it, but we probably won't see it until the end of year list is released- it will probably exit the top 30 before hitting it.

Oh, I'm not cheering it on for any particular number. Just want to see it hang in there for as long as possible. I don't care if it sells 100k, 150k, whatever. I'm just cheering for the underdog to perform steadily for a while.

 

[Firewire]

Great numbers for MGS4.

 

[PistolGrip]

I AM saying that of all the people that ever intended to buy the PS3 for MGS4, FFXIII, GT5, etc...that 80%-90% of those people already own the system

What the hell, do you have a document of ridiculous statements or something ;P

That's simply not true and if you believe that then I would lose all respect for your analytical skills. With such a small user base, the probability of your statement is tiny.

Let me help you rephrase that to make it no seem so outlandish, No single release would cause more than 10% of the of its unit sales along with the console on its first week. You assume again that what the PS3 sells every week without new releases is simply what it would have sold if it had no games. I am going to have to question your ability to think outside the charts.

 

[Pureauthor]

What the hell, do you have a document of ridiculous statements or something ;P

That's simply not true and if you believe that then I would lose all respect for your analytical skills.

You realize that if his assertion is ridiculous, yours is equally so because neither of you have the necessary data? PL at least has a datapoint (flawed as that may be) to back him up.

 

[PistolGrip]

You realize that if his assertion is ridiculous, yours is equally so because neither of you have the necessary data? PL at least has a datapoint (flawed as that may be) to back him up.

The difference is, I am not making any assertions see... I am off the hook. I am not taking the opposite extreme here.

 

[liuelson]

About PantherLotus' market saturation argument, I think it's really the debunking of the "wait for x" argument cast in a different way.

Using Famitsu data for 2007 top 500, MGS4 week 1 sales would represent:
3.8% of PS3 game sales
9.4% of all console 3rd party sales
27.0% of PS3 3rd party sales

Using GAF MC thread predictions and Famitsu MGS4 data:
MGS4 week 1 sales exceeded the average prediction by a whopping 55.1%
PS3 sales in the same week exceeded the average prediction by 27.1%

That suggests to me:
1. MGS4 sales are unusual for 3rd party PS3 games, and it may not be appropriate to generalize from them
2. Although MGS4 sales were very much higher than expected, PS3 sales were only moderately higher than expected

The hardware bump, although good and better than expected, were not as much of a surprise as the sales of the game itself. That does tend to support PantherLotus' argument that the great MGS4 sales will not translate into as much of a long-term PS3 bump as Sony (or anyone else) might hope.

(edited calculations)

 

[Vinci]

I'm thrilled for MGS4. Glad to see its fanbase respond the way it has, not that it was especially surprising considering how unmatched it is in sheer dedication. [And no, FF doesn't have the same level of fans; it simply has more of them. FF games don't carry over characters from previous games and don't have that built-in emotional attachment that MGS has gained through years of interacting with its fans. It's like having a new Middle Earth film every three years or something - of course people are going to see it.]

All that said, I'll be glad when this forum has one MGS topic and not the legions it has spawned as of late.

 

[XiaNaphryz]

The difference is, I am not making any assertions

That's simply not true and if you believe that then I would lose all respect for your analytical skills. With such a small user base, the probability of your statement is tiny.

as·ser·tion (&#601;-sûr'sh&#601;n) n.

1. The act of asserting.
2. Something declared or stated positively, often with no support or attempt at proof.

The data and charts you keep complaining PL uses? At least he's trying to use something as proof and support and not pulling random numbers.

 

[farnham]

one thing is for sure

MGS4s initial sales are way higher then those of marquee Gamecube third party software titles... (i think the highest was either FFCC or RE zero)

but then again MGS4 was regarded as an icon for Playstation.. Much like Mario Sunshine or Zelda for Gamecube...

 

[schuelma]

That does tend to support PantherLotus' argument that the great MGS4 sales will not translate into as much of a long-term PS3 bump as Sony (or anyone else) might hope.

(edited calculations)

I don't think many were arguing with Panther's assertion that MGS4 isn't going to save the PS3.

 

[Tron 2.0]

Let me help you rephrase that to make it no seem so outlandish, No single release would cause more than 10% of the of its unit sales along with the console on its first week.

Do we have anything to back this up?

I don't think many were arguing with Panther's assertion that MGS4 isn't going to save the PS3.

What are people actually arguing with again? I lost track of what the thrust of their concern was. He didn't say anything that far outside the realm of possibility.

 

[PistolGrip]

as·ser·tion (&#601;-sûr'sh&#601;n) n.

1. The act of asserting.
2. Something declared or stated positively, often with no support or attempt at proof.

The data and charts you keep complaining PL uses? At least he's trying to use something as proof and support and not pulling random numbers.

I am not complaining about the charts. Just he's statements.

Its like arguing with someone if there is a tooth fairy. Sure I cant prove its wrong but I can at least argue there is small chance of it being true or that its ridiculous to say it because we have no way of knowing even after those games are out you cannot say with certainty who was waiting for a system due to a certain game.

I don't assert he is completely wrong, but that it is not probable. Perhaps assert was the wrong word because he is not stating something as if this then this, he is stating it as a fact. I am arguing what he is calling a fact has a low possibility to be right as much as the tooth fairy but then again I don't want to get into a huge argument of proving everything so I will end there.

 

[schuelma]

What are people actually arguing with again? He didn't say anything that far outside the realm of possibility.

I think the argument was that MGS4 in many people's mind historically couldn't ever have been expected to "save" the PS3 in the first place.

 

[PistolGrip]

Do we have anything to back this up?
.

nope just trying to make his statement more credible and somewhat more supported by his charts.

 

[liuelson]

I AM saying that of all the people that ever intended to buy the PS3 for MGS4, FFXIII, GT5, etc...that 80%-90% of those people already own the system

Let me help you rephrase that to make it no seem so outlandish, No single release would cause more than 10% of the of its unit sales along with the console on its first week. You assume again that what the PS3 sells every week without new releases is simply what it would have sold if it had no games. I am going to have to question your ability to think outside the charts.

I'm not sure those 2 assertions are equivalent.

The consumer in PantherLotus' assertion says "I want to buy PS3 for MGS4!", and his argument is that 80-90% of those consumers have now bought a PS3. The consumer in your rephrased assertion says "I want to buy a PS3, and MGS4 is one of the reasons."

The first assertion implicitly argues that the customers who are loyal to the individual title are the important drivers for hardware adoption. Your rephrased assertion implicitly argues that there is a significant number of consumers who adopt based on overall library, not just an individual title. We only see aggregate data, so it's nearly impossible to determine the individual effects of both of those types of consumers.

Edit:

I think the argument was that MGS4 in many people's mind historically couldn't ever have been expected to "save" the PS3 in the first place.

The "wait for x" argument sounds like the idea of a tipping point or critical mass. There is some rational basis for that argument - traditional technology adoption models are S-shaped and winners seem to have a "take-off" inflection point in their adoption curve. But as JoshuaJSlone showed me with his PS2 data, video game console adoption curves don't have an S-shape (and thus no inflection point, and thus no "take-off" moment).

 

[Tron 2.0]

I think the argument was that MGS4 in many people's mind historically couldn't ever have been expected to "save" the PS3 in the first place.

Right. Except that MGS4 was everyone's favorite "Wait until..." for the last little bit.

Besides, that wasn't how I interpreted his argument. It was turned into a fanboy discussion, but didn't begin as such.

nope just trying to make his statement more credible and somewhat more supported by his charts.

Oh, I see. I didn't actually understand what you were trying to say in that sentence.

However, I don't think that's really what PantherLotus was saying.

 

[batbeg]

This thread has been awesome to read.

 

[PistolGrip]

I'm not sure those 2 assertions are equivalent.

The consumer in PantherLotus' assertion says "I want to buy PS3 for MGS4!", and his argument is that 80-90% of those consumers have now bought a PS3. The consumer in your rephrased assertion says "I want to buy a PS3, and MGS4 is one of the reasons."

The first assertion implicitly argues that the customers who are loyal to the individual title are the important drivers for hardware adoption. Your rephrased assertion implicitly argues that there is a significant number of consumers who adopt based on overall library, not just an individual title. We only see aggregate data, so it's nearly impossible to determine the individual effects of both of those types of consumers.

No

PantherLotus' Assertion: "90% of people who want PS3 for the top selling games of the PS2 era in Japan bought a PS3 already" based on bump/retraction pattern any new release has.

Me: I made no cases for any consumers. I am arguing what you stated "We only see aggregate data, so it's nearly impossible to determine the individual effects of both of those types of consumers" Also that is ridiculous to think that the core 90% of the fans for those big titles that are planning on buying a PS3 already have one being that the PS3 user base is so low. I restated his claim to make it match his analysis.

 

[Tron 2.0]

This thread has been awesome to read.

I actually find it depressing to read.

If one disagrees with an argument, how about replying with some facts to back one's argument instead of popping in and being all, "You're a stupid Nintendo fanboy LULZ!!11!."

EDIT:

Also that is ridiculous to think that the core 90% of the fans for those big titles that are planning on buying a PS3 already have one being that the PS3 user base is so low.

Like this.

Why is it ridiculous? Show me that it is ridiculous. Give me a single example that would back this up.

I have no qualms with being shown that I'm wrong (since I agree with PantherLotus's analysis), but you have to actually show me. Not just make categorical statements of fact.

 

[Vinci]

I think it's a reasonable claim to say that if MGS4 drops significantly next week (or in the immediate weeks after), as do the PS3 numbers, then damn near everyone in Japan with an interest in the PS3 for MGS4 is covered by now. MGS4 will do next to nothing to spur sales based on adding to the PS3's library; it's too polarizing of a series to do that. Those who love it would gladly assassinate someone for the money to own the system and the game - the level of its fandom is so strong. This isn't a game where people are going to go, "Think I'll wait on that one, yeah." No, they're going to maim, molest, fondle, and generally turn into a fetish anything related to the series.

It's the very definition of a front-loaded title. In fact, it might the most front-loaded ever.

 

[PistolGrip]

"You're a stupid Nintendo fanboy LULZ!!11!."

Say what? Who said this? Can you quote that person, he should be banned. I disagree with him but actually said SONY is Fucked in Japan in the same comment..