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[kswiston]

Gamers have lost. Wii Fit defeated Monster Hunter.

Wii fit was always going to outsell Monster Hunter. Wii fit could easily end up being the best selling console game this gen (3M is locked, we'll see if it hits 4M in the next year or two). The more interesting battle is #1 for YTD in 2008. That battle hasn't been decided yet, and likely won't be decided until November/December (Or the release of DQIX, whatever comes first).

 

[Tron 2.0]

What's good for a second week? 100k? Or that's impossible?

According to Josh's invaluable resource, MGS3 sold 122,977 its second week according to Famitsu. So it's definitely possible if the PS3 mega drop doesn't occur.

 

[PantherLotus]

If 100% of MGS4 sales were attributed to current PS3 owners (they weren't), then 25% of the PS3 base now owns that game in Japan.

That's awesome for MG4, but sad for the PS3. Why? First of all, no sales spike leading up to the title. At 10,586 units sold last week, the anticipatory buy-in was a resounding "meh." That is the first red flag.

Of interest:

1. The pre-MGS4 PS3 LTD is 2,079,104.
2. MGS4 first week sales (90% of LTD) were 465,000.
=====================

(% of base that bought the game) = total increase in PS3 hardware sales
100% = 0
90% = 46,500
<<--Total sales this week somewhere in here
80% = 93,000
70% = 139,500
60% = 186,000
etc. = etc.

Hypothesis:
If PS3 unit sales are less than 70k for the week (they will be) [edit: famitsu says 70k, but i'll stick with the argument], then that means that between 80%-90% of MGS4 sales were sold to current PS3 owners.

That also means the PS3 is now owned by the majority of people that would ever buy the system for such a game. Now, maybe it isn't that big of a game in Japan and I'm blowing things out of proportion, but if/when 2/4ths of the PS3's biggest games (Gundam, MGS, GT5, FFXIII) are already out and they aren't generating more than a handful of console purchasers, it means we're nearing market saturation on the product.

Yeah, it's a bold statement. But for Sony, now is the time to be bold and make a move for the PS4.


(edits for clarity)

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

Gamers have lost. Wii Fit defeated Monster Hunter.

You may not see it now, but this is a good thing. A good thing. Expanded audience means sustained growth for the industry which means more games, including the kinds of games you like.

The industry in Japan was stagnating and even shrinking for a few years during the PS2 generation. The DS and the "non-game" phenomenon (Nintendogs) came along and changed that. Now the DS has a core game library that is set to rival that of the PS2.

You have it backwards. Wii Fit and its ilk aren't killing gaming, Wii Fit and its ilk are saving gaming from the fate that befell the American comic book industry.

 

[PistolGrip]

nonsense

You make no sense. Wasnt famitsu numbers 70K PS3s for the week? Also thanks to big sales, systems usually get free marketing and hype. This could only help the PS3 situation.

 

[PantherLotus]

VisciousSquirell, if you knew anything about comics you would know non-comics are what killed it. (duh!)

 

[kswiston]

This week was a given, next week is the money shot.

I don't think this week's sales were a given. MGS4 more than doubled the previous first week sales record for a PS3 game. These sales seem obvious in hindsight, but almost the entirety of GAF (myself included) majorly underpredicted MGS4's sales potential just a little over a week ago. Some were even predicting sub 200k debuts.

 

[PantherLotus]

^^ not sure if this relates to your point, but the highest ever post-launch sales for the PS3 were around 64k, last December.

You make no sense. Wasnt famitsu numbers 70K PS3s for the week?

Ok, let's pretend that the PS3 sold 70k for the MGS4 launch week. Subtracting the weekly 10k that it has been selling since April, that leaves a 60k unit increase. At 60k unit increase, according to the chart above, that means that only 15% of MGS4 sales were to new PS3 owners.

That means that everybody (or nearly) that would have bought the PS3 for the game has already done so.

 

[Zombie James]

If PS3 unit sales are less than 50k for the week (they will be)

Didn't Famitsu say 70K+?

 

[PantherLotus]

Didn't Famitsu say 70K+?

point, you're missing it

 

[kswiston]

You make no sense. Wasnt famitsu numbers 70K PS3s for the week? Also thanks to big sales, systems usually get free marketing and hype. This could only help the PS3 situation.

Not to mention that Week 1 sales for MGS4 won't constitute anywhere near 90% of the LTD. Out of the top selling PS3 titles, DMC4 has been the most front loaded to date, and even that title only managed 73% of its LTD in week one. Worst case scenario for MGS4 regarding front loading is 75-80% LTD in Week 1. Personally, I think it will be around 65%.

 

[Zombie James]

point, you're missing it

Famitsu said over 70K. Media Create numbers aren't out for another day. You're confident actual sales are less than 50K ("they will be"). Doesn't compute (unless you have access to the data a full day before everyone else).

 

[PantherLotus]

^^ I'm sorry, I missed the Famitsu post, but whether it's 50k or 70k or even 90k, the point stands: The PS3 is at market saturation--nearly everyone that was ever going to buy one already owns one, and these games (including 2009's FFXIII) will help only marginally.

Not to mention that Week 1 sales for MGS4 won't constitute anywhere near 90% of the LTD. Out of the top selling PS3 titles, DMC4 has been the most front loaded to date, and even that title only managed 73% of its LTD in week one. Worst case scenario for MGS4 regarding front loading is 75-80% LTD in Week 1. Personally, I think it will be around 65%.

If it sold 65% of its lifetime sales this week, that would be around 720k lifetime. If 15% of every one of those sales is to a new PS3 owner (see last post) (and it won't stay that high), that's a 100k PS3 unit increase over the life of the game. Or, what the Wii sold the past two weeks.

 

[PantherLotus]

edited the post in question for clarity.

 

[PistolGrip]

Ok, let's pretend that the PS3 sold 70k for the MGS4 launch week. Subtracting the weekly 10k that it has been selling since April, that leaves a 60k unit increase. At 60k unit increase, according to the chart above, that means that only 15% of MGS4 sales were to new PS3 owners.

That means that everybody (or nearly) that would have bought the PS3 for the game has already done so.

Firstly you are assuming the bump will come back to 10k and that MGS will stop selling for some reason. Then you forget one very important fact. Nothing breeds success like success. If more people buy the PS3, eventually more people will learn about the PS3 and the system will get more marketing. Does that mean only MGS fans will buy it? No it means more people become aware or are reminded is there (Marketing 101).

 

[kswiston]

If it sold 65% of its lifetime sales this week, that would be around 720k lifetime. If 15% of every one of those sales is to a new PS3 owner (see last post) (and it won't stay that high), that's a 100k increase over the life of the game. Or, what the Wii sold the past two weeks.

Final Fantasy X only directly increased PS2 sales by a couple hundred thousand, despite the fact that the game sold well over 2 million. That's just how things work most of the time with killer apps. MGS4 is still beneficial to the PS3, even though future customers might not buy a system specifically for that game. While individual killer apps won't be a big enough deal to cause everyone to run out and buy a $400 system, previously released games do help people justify the cost of a system when their personal Must Have title finally does come around.

If there wasn't such a drought of must have titles on the PS3 (we are lucky to get one game with the potential to do 100k+ every month or two at this point), weekly sales would never have been in the sub-10k range to begin with.

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

edited the post in question for clarity.

I see what your saying and agree with the market saturation bit (could we take a look at what % of final LTD the Gamecube had done at this stage for comparison?), though I'm not nearly as pessimistic about it as you seem to be. Although I don't believe that an early PS4 launch is the answer. Killing the PS3 early would only serve to alienate Sony's loyal fanbase, much like what Sega did with the Saturn and later in a much bigger way with the Dreamcast.

The loyal fanbase is important. They're the launching point from which any future console success is spawned.

 

[PantherLotus]

^^ Thanks. I only meant that the planning of PS4 should be ratcheted up and the launch should be moved slightly ahead of 2017.

Firstly you are assuming the bump will come back to 10k and that MGS will stop selling for some reason. Then you forget one very important fact. Nothing breeds success like success. If more people buy the PS3, eventually more people will learn about the PS3 and the system will get more marketing. Does that mean only MGS fans will buy it? No it means more people become aware or are reminded is there (Marketing 101).

I can see your marketing classes have been very limited.

And you are making several assumptions yourself:
1. That MGS4, with only a 15% non-owner adoption, is going to magically increase sales for more than a couple weeks. We have multiple examples in this generation on multiple systems that a game of this "hardcore-ness" and its legs, especially on the PS3. Meaning: don't get your hopes up.

2. That these increased sales will lead to increased awareness of the PS3 product. I don't doubt that PS3 will continue to receive interest from those that are interested in it, but that's my point: everyone that is/was interested in it already owns one (or is waiting for GT5/FFXIII). If these increased sales for MGS4 (potentially 100k?) are what one of the system's biggest franchises acquires, can we hope that GT5 and FFXIII will generate much more?

 

[donny2112]

(we are lucky to get one game with the potential to do 100k+ every month or two at this point)

You're looking at it all wrong. Sony is being kind to its PS3 owners by letting each big game have plenty of time to sell before the next one comes out. Breathing room.

 

[PistolGrip]

And you are making several assumptions yourself:

Here is your problem, only you are making assumptions, I am just playing devil's advocate. When you assume it makes an ass of u and me.

1. That MGS4, with only a 15% non-owner adoption, is going to magically increase sales for more than a couple weeks. We have multiple examples in this generation on multiple systems that a game of this "hardcore-ness" and its legs, especially on the PS3. Meaning: don't get your hopes up.
Who said MGS4 is doing the increase on its on? Marketing! Marketing Marketing. Get people talking about your system. Get it on the news. Make people stand in lines etc etc.

2. That these increased sales will lead to increased awareness of the PS3 product. I don't doubt that PS3 will continue to receive interest from those that are interested in it, but that's my point: everyone that is/was interested in it already owns one (or is waiting for GT5/FFXIII). If these increased sales for MGS4 (potentially 100k?) are what one of the system's biggest franchises acquires, can we hope that GT5 and FFXIII will generate much more?
No. FF + MGS + GT fans do not = a console fanbase, not to mention they overlap each other as well. You are oversimplying and its getting you into logical problems. Systems, games and everything else sells based on Marketing. Thats it. MARKETING is everything! Great Games thankfully add marketability (put in other words, its sell appeal). It is ridiculous to say things like "everyone who wanted a PS3 has one because of some game". Its border line retardation with games like Wiifit selling amazingly well.

.

 

[XiaNaphryz]

Firstly you are assuming the bump will come back to 10k and that MGS will stop selling for some reason. Then you forget one very important fact. Nothing breeds success like success. If more people buy the PS3, eventually more people will learn about the PS3 and the system will get more marketing. Does that mean only MGS fans will buy it? No it means more people become aware or are reminded is there (Marketing 101).

You can replace "MGS" with previous major releases that hit Japan with good first week numbers and a good marketing campaign, and a bump in hardware sales with bundle options, and your argument would still be applicable. However, we did see a drop in regular weekly hardware sales afterwards, and in some cases it took quite a while due to other contributing circumstances (i.e. holiday time period, etc).

The pattern's happened enough times that it would be best to wait for the next few weeks worth of numbers - if software sales remain somewhat strong but the hardware starts to trend back to normal numbers, we'll know it's likely to repeat the same pattern yet again.

So wait and see.

EDIT: Are you seriously suggesting that sheer marketing is going to be enough to drive the PS3 up in Japan?

 

[PantherLotus]

Hey gaf, if only Sony had marketed better, the PS3 would have sold more!! DUR

 

[XiaNaphryz]

Hey gaf, if only Sony had marketed better, the PS3 would have sold more!! DUR

Well, didn't they say they'd sell millions on the brand name alone? MARKETING POWER!

 

[PistolGrip]

You can replace "MGS" with previous major releases that hit Japan with good first week numbers and a good marketing campaign, and a bump in hardware sales with bundle options, and your argument would still be applicable. However, we did see a drop in regular weekly hardware sales afterwards, and in some cases it took quite a while due to other contributing circumstances (i.e. holiday time period, etc).

The pattern's happened enough times that it would be best to wait for the next few weeks worth of numbers - if software sales remain somewhat strong but the hardware starts to trend back to normal numbers, we'll know it's likely to repeat the same pattern yet again.

So wait and see.

Well thats my point. Hes saying well SONY pack your bags no matter what MGS4 sells, PS3 will go back to selling ~10k so you better introduce PS4. This has been the biggest title yet and the biggest increase. I am confident it will go down but it could be enough to keep it at ~20k until fall but I am not making any bets

 

[PantherLotus]

I cannot believe you just used WiiFit as a counterargument to why MGS4 will continue to increase PS3 sales.

 

[XiaNaphryz]

Well thats my point. Hes saying well SONY pack your bags no matter what MGS4 sells, PS3 will go back to selling ~10k so you better introduce PS4. This has been the biggest title yet and the biggest increase. I am confident it will go down but it could be enough to keep it at ~20k until fall but I am not making any bets

Well, he has recent historical trends to base that on, which were with franchises that are bigger in the Japanese market than MGS is. And he is correct that the hardware bump isn't really all that big a leap, similar to GTA4 and HW sales in the west. So it's not like he's saying it for the sake of pissing people off.

 

[PistolGrip]

Hey gaf, if only Sony had marketed better, the PS3 would have sold more!! DUR

Before your sarcasm gets out of hand, you better understand that marketing is the ability to sell something, be it price, gimmick, content or perceived value. based on your comments you must be thinking saturday morning ads with crazy Japanese men dressed in cat suits

Well, he has recent historical trends to base that on, which were with franchises that are bigger in the Japanese market than MGS is. And he is correct that the hardware bump isn't really all that big a leap, similar to GTA4 and HW sales in the west. So it's not like he's saying it for the sake of pissing people off.

I am sure its not (didnt bother me actually) but I am just trying to point out is wrong to think that way. Yes Japanese Sales pattern does show that a big title = bump then a drop the next week but to assume only those peoeple who want that game will want a system is simply incorrect. Also to assume drops no matter how much attention one game gets because the system is simply doom is also wrong.

 

[PantherLotus]

^^ please don't bring Marketing, Public Relations, and Advertising talk to me unless you know what you're talking about. You don't, and you need to sit down.

Well thats my point. Hes saying well SONY pack your bags no matter what MGS4 sells, PS3 will go back to selling ~10k so you better introduce PS4. This has been the biggest title yet and the biggest increase. I am confident it will go down but it could be enough to keep it at ~20k until fall but I am not making any bets

Actually that IS exactly what I'm saying. I'm saying that the biggest titles have to move hardware units, and that few people that don't already own the console are buying this game. Why is that hard to understand?

The PS4 comment has already been clarified, but I'll do it again just in case: Sony is fucked, but we already knew that. I'm suggesting they should move up the PS4 launch some time before the 10 year mark. That's it.

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

^^ Thanks. I only meant that the planning of PS4 should be ratcheted up and the launch should be moved slightly ahead of 2017.

I see. I thought the point would be self evident, though hopefully Sony won't stop supporting the PS3 in its dying years as Nintendo did the Gamecube.

1. That MGS4, with only a 15% non-owner adoption, is going to magically increase sales for more than a couple weeks. We have multiple examples in this generation on multiple systems that a game of this "hardcore-ness" and its legs, especially on the PS3. Meaning: don't get your hopes up.

I don't see the precipitous drop-off so much as a function of "hardcore-ness" (see: Monster Hunter), but rather as inclination to sell the game once it has been played. If there are used copies on the market for half the price of a new copy, sales will suffer accordingly.

Though, for comparison, could I ask that you do the same analysis for say Wii Fit, MK, Brawl or the first Monster Hunter since their respective launches? I have a feeling that the difference in non-owner adoption won't be all that dramatic, but enough to demonstrate the point a little further.

2. That these increased sales will lead to increased awareness of the PS3 product. I don't doubt that PS3 will continue to receive interest from those that are interested in it, but that's my point: everyone that is/was interested in it already owns one (or is waiting for GT5/FFXIII). If these increased sales for MGS4 (potentially 100k?) are what one of the system's biggest franchises acquires, can we hope that GT5 and FFXIII will generate much more?

Not to dogpile upon the guy you're responding to, but you're very much correct. The PS3 was poorly conceived from a marketing perspective and it has become clear that its target demographic was ill-defined from the outset and its size vastly overestimated.

You know those statements from Sony execs that the Wii and the PS3 aren't competing in the same market? Well, what they should be saying is that the Wii and the PS3 aren't meant to be competing in the same market, yet they are, nevertheless. The problem is that Sony didn't realise just how heterogenous their market was and that the reasons the PSX and PS2 were so successful weren't the ones they thought.

 

[duckroll]

If these increased sales for MGS4 (potentially 100k?) are what one of the system's biggest franchises acquires, can we hope that GT5 and FFXIII will generate much more?

Since when was MGS ever one of the system's biggest franchises in Japan? Maybe you missed my thread, but MGS4 has sold exactly what every other MGS game has sold in the first week in Japan. It's like 10k under MGS3 and 20k over MGS2.

For a guy that keeps waving the "If you don't know what you're talking about shut up!" card you sure don't seem to know much about the history of the game you're forecasting...

 

[HK-47]

Since when was MGS ever one of the system's biggest franchises in Japan? Maybe you missed my thread, but MGS4 has sold exactly what every other MGS game has sold in the first week in Japan. It's like 10k under MGS3 and 20k over MGS2.

For a guy that keeps waving the "If you don't know what you're talking about shut up!" card you sure don't seem to know much about the history of the game you're forecasting...

I think he just wants to argue with MGS fans

 

[Dupy]

Huzzah, MC threads just got interesting again!

 

[PistolGrip]

^^ please don't bring Marketing, Public Relations, and Advertising talk to me unless you know what you're talking about. You don't, and you need to sit down.

spare me the condescending comments please.


Actually that IS exactly what I'm saying. I'm saying that the biggest titles have to move hardware units, and that few people that don't already own the console are buying this game. Why is that hard to understand?

Look at my statements again. I just pointed to some illogical statements you had. Not arguing this

The PS4 comment has already been clarified, but I'll do it again just in case: Sony is fucked, but we already knew that. I'm suggesting they should move up the PS4 launch some time before the 10 year mark. That's it.

No argument here. Sony has been fucked for a while in Japan and needs to get their act together but a PS4 would be disastrous

.

 

[jko]

nice bump, but next week PS3 back to 9k

 

[PantherLotus]

duckroll: I am most definitely not saying "if you don't know, shut up!" unless it relates to marketing. In the case of the MGS series, I clearly stated that it may not be the biggest title for the system. Others have refuted that earlier in the thread, but it doesn't change the point.

I am sure its not (didnt bother me actually) but I am just trying to point out is wrong to think that way. Yes Japanese Sales pattern does show that a big title = bump then a drop the next week but to assume only those peoeple who want that game will want a system is simply incorrect. Also to assume drops no matter how much attention one game gets because the system is simply doom is also wrong.

Let's keep this civil, because I think this will be a great lesson for MC readers new and old alike.

1. Why is the assumption that only certain people want a game incorrect? The sales of the game were 465k, yet the hardware sales we assume are going to be around 70k (per Famitsu). Every week, the PS3 sales hit around 10k...so 60k people that weren't going to buy a PS3 this week did so, and yes we can safely assume, because of MGS4. We can also assume that every single one of those other copies of MGS4 sold to a current PS3 owner. Crazy assumption, I know, but at some point we have to have faith in people to not buy games for systems they don't own.

2. So if 60k of those copies of MGS4 sold to non-PS3 owners, the game only sold 12.9% to people that were going to buy a system. Now, that's actually pretty good, but when one looks at the PS3's LTD, that's when things get hairy.

 

[Elbrain]

nice bump, but next week PS3 back to 9k

It would be a crying shame if it would which it might.

 

[Tron 2.0]

Since when was MGS ever one of the system's biggest franchises in Japan? Maybe you missed my thread, but MGS4 has sold exactly what every other MGS game has sold in the first week in Japan. It's like 10k under MGS3 and 20k over MGS2.

It seems safe to say then that the vast majority of people anticipating MGS4 had already purchased a PS3 before the game was released. 70K is a large amount of consoles for the PS3, but compared to sales of the game it is rather small.

It then seems unlikely that MGS4 will continue to have a dramatic impact on hardware sales.

I have no horse in this race and I don't want to get into any arguments, but I do see PantherLotus's point.

nice bump, but next week PS3 back to 9k

I would imagine somewhere closer to the 25K range.

 

[duckroll]

duckroll: I am most definitely not saying "if you don't know, shut up!" unless it relates to marketing. In the case of the MGS series, I clearly stated that it may not be the biggest title for the system. Others have refuted that earlier in the thread, but it doesn't change the point.

Okay, then I'm the one that will say it. If you don't know jack shit about the history of MGS sales, and the MGS audience in Japan. Stfu.

It seems safe to say then that the vast majority of people anticipating MGS4 had already purchased a PS3 before the game was released. 70K is a large amount of consoles for the PS3, but compared to sales of the game it is rather small.

It then seems unlikely that MGS4 will continue to have a dramatic impact on hardware sales.

I have no horse in this race and I don't want to get into any arguments, but I do see PantherLotus's point.

Again I take issue with his complete lack of knowledge in the area of MGS sales in Japan. His point is completely invalid because he is unwilling to take any of that into account. He doesn't care to know how MGS sells in Japan, he's only interested in using the current data to make some "point". He's not interested in the PS3 or in MGS, just in making the "point".

 

[Blablurn]

i'm so happy for MGS! This game deserves it!

 

[PantherLotus]

Tron 2.0: the only way I could be that eloquent and to the point is with a chart.

 

[PantherLotus]

Okay, then I'm the one that will say it. If you don't know jack shit about the history of MGS sales, and the MGS audience in Japan. Stfu.

Your now-red status makes me hesitate to respond, and that's unfortunate, because we have an excellent discussion happening. (You seem a little bolder.)

 

[PistolGrip]

2. So if 60k of those copies of MGS4 sold to non-PS3 owners, the game only sold 12.9% to people that were going to buy a system. Now, that's actually pretty good, but when one looks at the PS3's LTD, that's when things get hairy.

You could look at this the other way around. MGS4 may be poised to sell much more than its previous counterparts since it sold so well under such a small user base. Who is to say that 100-200k of those MGS4 units sold were not people new to MGS. Now you can argue that MGS fans will continue to buy the system and the game months to come. PS3 owners have had no great releases in a while so this huge MGS4 number could be because of starved PS3 owners.

 

[duckroll]

Your now-red status makes me hesitate to respond, and that's unfortunate, because we have an excellent discussion happening. (You seem a little bolder.)

I'm offended that you would think I will ban anyone for having a different opinion. Me being a mod should not be an issue in this at all.

I've never pulled any punches when discussing issues before, and I don't see why I should now. If you're not doing anything against the rules, why be afraid to argue with me?

 

[dyls]

Fuck yeah MGS4, Wiifit overtook MH

Gamers have lost. Wii Fit defeated Monster Hunter.

It's hilarious that everyone is suddenly such huge MH fans. If it was made by Nintendo it would be part of the problem, but because it's made by anybody else, it's the savior of gaming.

Even funnier, I would say that Wii Fit is actually one of the more hardcore games of the generation. To me, a hardcore game is one that you have to put a lot in to get much out, while a casual game is one that is easy and quick and doesn't really challenge you in any great way. After 16+ hours of working out with it, I would definitely say that Wii Fit belongs in the first category.

 

[lsslave]

So people can't just be happy that MGS4 did some of the best Japanese GAME sales from a 3rd party this entire generation of gaming?

Instead its "PS3 doomed because it didn't sell that many PS3s"

but from what i have seen it is selling in line with other versions of MGS, which means that MGS owners (the fans of the series) bought their PS3s already, which means the systems were already sold to the people who wanted the game, so you could say nearly 500K systems sold for MGS if you wanted to be technical since other games arent selling so hot

 

[sprsk]

I'm offended that you would think I will ban anyone for having a different opinion. Me being a mod should not be an issue in this at all.

I've never pulled any punches when discussing issues before, and I don't see why I should now. If you're not doing anything against the rules, why be afraid to argue with me?

Welcome to my nightmareeee woooaooooooah.

 

[PantherLotus]

ducky: I've been banned so many times for non-bannable bullshit when arguing with red names that I don't dare try now. I enjoy my sales age and I'm trying to not get banned. I'll take you at your word that you aren't the same as a couple others.

Again I take issue with his complete lack of knowledge in the area of MGS sales in Japan. His point is completely invalid because he is unwilling to take any of that into account. He doesn't care to know how MGS sells in Japan, he's only interested in using the current data to make some "point". He's not interested in the PS3 or in MGS, just in making the "point".

Would you please educate all of us about the intricacies of the MGS audience and their buying tendencies? Perhaps they're more of the snowball-effect crowd than I thought, but since I can think of a handful of games in history that acted like that (both in their own sales and their resultant effect on hardware).

I could easily be wrong, and I'd be the first to admit it. I would like to be shown why I am, though.

 

[duckroll]

You could look at this the other way around. MGS4 may be poised to sell much more than its previous counterparts since it sold so well under such a small user base. Who is to say that 100-200k of those MGS4 units sold were not people new to MGS. Now you can argue that MGS fans will continue to buy the system and the game months to come. PS3 owners have had no great releases in a while so this huge MGS4 number could be because of starved PS3 owners.

He cannot look at it in any other way because he has no interest or knowledge in how previous MGS games have sold, and what the trend and fanbase in Japan for the game is like. I don't completely disagree with his point, I think Sony is doomed too as far as being number 1 is concerned, but it's obvious he isn't putting much effort into this "analysis".

 

[Tron 2.0]

Again I take issue with his complete lack of knowledge in the area of MGS sales in Japan. His point is completely invalid because he is unwilling to take any of that into account. He doesn't care to know how MGS sells in Japan, he's only interested in using the current data to make some "point". He's not interested in the PS3 or in MGS, just in making the "point".

I understand. However, I believe the data you presented in the other thread along with historical second and third week sales for the series lend itself to the conclusion that he made.

But I am admittedly not as proficient as others in this arena.

 

[lsslave]

He cannot look at it in any other way because he has no interest or knowledge in how previous MGS games have sold, and what the trend and fanbase in Japan for the game is like. I don't completely disagree with his point, I think Sony is doomed too as far as being number 1 is concerned, but it's obvious he isn't putting much effort into this "analysis".

I don't think there is any question about #1, the Wii was dominating BEFORE Wii Fit and it is dominating now, now don't get me wrong Wii Fit isn't my thing but its nice to see Nintendo doing well, if only we would get good games... but I have 8 Wii games that I think are amazing so I am pretty happy with that situation!

As for your red status, hell I have made cracks at that myself since your the only mod who discusses regularly (in the threads I go to at least) and am not entirely afraid of since your not some strange deity who might just crush me under his foot (eg: Monty Python style crushing in bannage form)