Media Create Sales: 9/10-9/16 2007

noonche

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Couple of things... how well did FFTA perform? I'm not really sure why people are expecting great sales from it. Same with DQ4, it's not really an upgrade so I don't see why we're expecting million-plus sales. Finally, is there actually a marketing push behind ASH? Why is it going to tear up the charts?
 

charlequin

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jj984jj said:
It's more hopeful thinking than it is reasonable thinking, I stand by what I said.

I don't think it'll reach the million mark, or if it does it won't be any faster than FFIII did.
So you think the remake of the more popular game, with more new content, released during (rather than before) the holiday season, with a bigger marketing push, on a platform that's sold something like 8 million units in the intervening time, and (presumably) not afflicted with sales-crippling supply problems, is going to sell dramatically worse. I guess it's not impossible but I hardly think "the original version has been rereleased before" is enough of a reason to consider it likely.

What figure are you expecting for DQ4, out of curiosity?
 

jj984jj

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Aug 30, 2005
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charlequin said:
So you think the remake of the more popular game, with more new content, released during (rather than before) the holiday season, with a bigger marketing push, on a platform that's sold something like 8 million units in the intervening time, and (presumably) not afflicted with sales-crippling supply problems, is going to sell dramatically worse. I guess it's not impossible but I hardly think "the original version has been rereleased before" is enough of a reason to consider it likely.

What figure are you expecting for DQ4, out of curiosity?
Yes, I think the the primary reason for FFIII's success was mainly due to the amount of people who played the original, and the amount of people who were interested in playing it but couldn't easily do so until now. I don't think the revamped FFIV will do enough to push it to 1 million faster, and most people overestimate the value of a larger userbase (I don't think it will make several hundreds of thousands units difference in this case). I don't think it'll do dramatically worse though. :lol

I expect DQIV to sell around 1-1.5 million, though I don't know what the PS1 version sold though.
 

noonche

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jj984jj said:
I expect DQIV to sell around 1-1.5 million, though I don't know what the PS1 version sold though.
Really? With no major changes? The PS1 version struggled to reach that and it was a complete remake. What makes things different this time?
 

Laguna

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You are way too optimistic charlequin. And who tells you that FF4 is more popular than FF3 in Japan?
 
Aug 27, 2007
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Laguna said:
You are way too optimistic charlequin. And who tells you that FF4 is more popular than FF3 in Japan?
Because the game has been re-released multiple times. FFIII DS was the first time it had been rereleased in Japan, if I'm not mistaken, or at least one of the few. (Was there a Wonderswan Color remake?)
 
Jul 31, 2007
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Lobster said:
Its got 1.4million to go to pass it.
Yep.

And when it does it will surpass it and go on to be one of the most successful handheld of all time in Japan. If the market swings like I think is likely the PSP will have the dubious honor of being the most successful non-Nintendo handheld of all time as well, and the handheld market will expand like mad.
 

jj984jj

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alske said:
Really? With no major changes? The PS1 version struggled to reach that and it was a complete remake. What makes things different this time?
Really? What did it sell? I know the DQVr sold about 1.4 million so I was basing my prediction on that.

Thunder Monkey said:
Yep.

And when it does it will surpass it and go on to be one of the most successful handheld of all time in Japan. If the market swings like I think is likely the PSP will have the dubious honor of being the most successful non-Nintendo handheld of all time as well, and the handheld market will expand like mad.
It's already the most successful handheld of all time in Japan, it's trying to aim for that WW now.
 

charlequin

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Laguna said:
And who tells you that FF4 is more popular than FF3 in Japan?
It sold dramatically more in its original release and has had a variety of widely spaced rereleases to introduce it to new players. Plus there's historically been a good amount of fanstuff (cosplay, fanart/manga, etc.) -- I suspect that having actual characters helps here.

I'm open for an argument why I'm mistaken.


Thunder Monkey said:
If the market swings like I think is likely the PSP will have the dubious honor of being the most successful non-Nintendo handheld of all time as well
How about "most successful second-in-category system of all time"?
 

Raw64life

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jj984jj said:
Really? What did it sell? I know the DQVr sold about 1.4 million so I was basing my prediction on that.


It's already the most successful handheld of all time in Japan, it's trying to aim for that WW now.
Don't know how reliable The Magic Box is but they have it at 1.2 million.
 

NomarTyme

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I think FF: Crisis Core could reach a million, but probably when the greatest hits additions hits though.
 

noonche

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Raw64life said:
Don't know how reliable The Magic Box is but they have it at 1.2 million.
They have it at just over 1 million. DQVr is the best selling of the Dragon Quest remakes. Both of those had substantial content added to them. DQ4 for DS will not have this. It'll probably do well, though if it does as well as FF3 I'll be surprised.
 

noonche

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jj984jj said:
Really? What did it sell? I know the DQVr sold about 1.4 million so I was basing my prediction on that.


It's already the most successful handheld of all time in Japan, it's trying to aim for that WW now.
Incorrect. The original Gameboy made it to 32 million.
 

Laguna

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It´s like saying FFX is more popular than FFVI amongst japanese FF fans. Bigger sales doesn´t always reflect the popularity of a title amongst fans from a series, especially when compared titles are released on different platforms.
 

noonche

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Actually, looking over the DS list I don't see any game that I'd be comfortable predicting it reaching platinum status. There are a number of "maybe"s. But no guarantees.
 

Hcoregamer00

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Thunder Monkey said:
Yep.

And when it does it will surpass it and go on to be one of the most successful handheld of all time in Japan. If the market swings like I think is likely the PSP will have the dubious honor of being the most successful non-Nintendo handheld of all time as well, and the handheld market will expand like mad.
The PSP has the record of being the most successful Non-Nintendo console ever. The only thing it needs to break is the 8 year lifespan of the Game Gear.
 

charlequin

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Laguna said:
It´s like saying FFX is more popular than FFVI amongst japanese FF fans. Bigger sales doesn´t always reflect the popularity of a title amongst fans from a series, especially when compared titles are released on different platforms.
Right, which is why I cited other reasons besides the pure sales figures. If you want to present an actual reason for suspecting the reverse, like I said, I'm willing to listen.
 

Raw64life

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jj984jj said:
In Japan alone? Really? Well then that means they've always loved handhelds. :lol
I'm pretty sure the number includes GBC, and it's not that hard to believe considering it had a lifespan of over 10 years and had basically no competition worth mentioning.

As for DQIV DS, I'd predict around 600k-700k. I can't see an enhanced port of a remake of any game, even a DQ game, selling a million.
 

noonche

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charlequin said:
Right, which is why I cited other reasons besides the pure sales figures. If you want to present an actual reason for suspecting the reverse, like I said, I'm willing to listen.
I think I agree with everyone that the game's overexposure will lead to lessened sales when compared with FF3.
 

Laguna

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charlequin said:
Right, which is why I cited other reasons besides the pure sales figures. If you want to present an actual reason for suspecting the reverse, like I said, I'm willing to listen.
I didn´t declare one game more popular than the other that was you. I just asked you on what you based your statement. Like I said before FF3 wasn´t remade/ported for a long time and that actually helped sales alot. FFIV could sell like FFIII or a little better and it´s releasedate is perfect (afaik 20-25.12.) but it could also sell worse. That is just something that you can´t be sure.
 

ethelred

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Alske: when people talk about the rest of the year's lineup they're talking about both quality gaming and sales potential. To narrow things down to the sales specifically...

PMD2: guaranteed million seller. It'll be one of the overall top selling games this year and will end up with at least 1.5 mil or so.

FFT A2: won't be a massive blockbuster seller but nothing to scoff at either. Should slightly exceed sales of its predecessor, will probably do around 400k.

ToI: needs, and probably will, do between 500-600k. Again, this'll make it one of the higher sellers this year.

ASH: not gong to be too big, but should net some pretty good sales. I'd look for it to match Blue Dragon's 200k.

Star Force 2: should top its predecessor with between 550-650k. Only having two versions this time is smart.

Layton 2: should, again, beat the first. Established popularity this time plus a better marketing campaign should lead to better front end sales which eliminates some used sales. Can see it doing 700k.

FF4r: sorry guys, but with the effort Square is putting into this and the bar FF3r set, this needs to go plat. 600k isn't going to cut it. The prior ports should have minimal impact given that, as Charlie noted, they really never sold all that much to begin with, and also because of the completely overhauled nature of the game and the amount of additional content. Ff3 was severely undershipped and Square is clearly looking for FF4 to be its big blockbuster title this year to rake in the huge holiday sales. They will not be happy with a subplat performance. FF3's sales weren't because it had never been ported -- even if you add up all three releases of ff4 since the sfami it wouldnt equal the million that ff3 did. The sales were because it was the first authentic DQ-level remake and the expectations would be for a continuation of those sales levels for this strategy to be vindicated.

DQ4: could see this one doing under a million because it's mostly the same as the psx remake we've already seem released and because the portable DQ remakes have always a bit underperformed the console ones. However, the presence of DQ9 should continue to do much for the DQ userbase on the system and that can only help sales. At the least it should do 700k easy, and that'll still make it one of the highest sellers of the year. Fwiw, YSO expects it to sell a million.
 

apotema

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ethelred said:
Star Force 2: should top its predecessor with between 550-650k. Only having two versions this time is smart.


AFAIK Megaman SF2 will have 3 versions, I'm not sure
 

ethelred

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apotema said:
AFAIK Megaman SF2 will have 3 versions, I'm not sure
If you're not sure, don't try to correct me! :lol

It's just two versions this time. Capcom seems to have learned its lesson.
 

noonche

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ethelred said:
Alske: when people talk about the rest of the year's lineup they're talking about both quality gaming and sales potential. To narrow things down to the sales specifically...

PMD2: guaranteed million seller. It'll be one of the overall top selling games this year and will end up with at least 1.5 mil or so.

FFT A2: won't be a massive blockbuster seller but nothing to scoff at either. Should slightly exceed sales of its predecessor, will probably do around 400k.

ToI: needs, and probably will, do between 500-600k. Again, this'll make it one of the higher sellers this year.

ASH: not gong to be too big, but should net some pretty good sales. I'd look for it to match Blue Dragon's 200k.

Star Force 2: should top its predecessor with between 550-650k. Only having two versions this time is smart.

Layton 2: should, again, beat the first. Established popularity this time plus a better marketing campaign should lead to better front end sales which eliminates some used sales. Can see it doing 700k.

FF4r: sorry guys, but with the effort Square is putting into this and the bar FF3r set, this needs to go plat. 600k isn't going to cut it. The prior ports should have minimal impact given that, as Charlie noted, they really never sold all that much to begin with, and also because of the completely overhauled nature of the game and the amount of additional content. Ff3 was severely undershipped and Square is clearly looking for FF4 to be its big blockbuster title this year to rake in the huge holiday sales. They will not be happy with a subplat performance. FF3's sales weren't because it had never been ported -- even if you add up all three releases of ff4 since the sfami it wouldnt equal the million that ff3 did. The sales were because it was the first authentic DQ-level remake and the expectations would be for a continuation of those sales levels for this strategy to be vindicated.

DQ4: could see this one doing under a million because it's mostly the same as the psx remake we've already seem released and because the portable DQ remakes have always a bit underperformed the console ones. However, the presence of DQ9 should continue to do much for the DQ userbase on the system and that can only help sales. At the least it should do 700k easy, and that'll still make it one of the highest sellers of the year. Fwiw, YSO expects it to sell a million.
If it wasn't clear, I was only talking about sales before as well. I think I agree with most of your predictions. However, I still think FF4 will underperform.

As far as quality goes, I expect to like ASH and Layton 2 a lot (though not enough to import). I didn't care for DQ4 on PSX, don't like Mysterious Dungeon or Tales games, hated Battle Network 4 and 5, and think that FF4 is horrendously ugly yet still somewhat appealing.
 

jj984jj

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DQI-III weren't remakes of the SFC versions, quite the opposite, they were noticeable downgrades from that. I think DQIV will perform better than those, it might not pass the million mark before the end of the year though, I had no clue DQVr was the best performance of the remakes. I think it'll pass the million mark before FFIV though.
 

Square2005

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Stumpokapow said:
FF3 (FAM) did not reach 1 million.
incorrect. FFIII shipped 1.40m on the Famicom. You should add it to your graph.

someone said said:
Incorrect. The original Gameboy made it to 32 million.
Incorrect. The original Game Boy shipped: ~12m, The GB Pocket: ~9m, GB Color: 11.86m
The Game Boy family combined sold ~32m.

You guys always overblow the success of the original GB. It wasn't nearly as popular as its successors in Japan or the U.S. (Teh Pokermans didn't come until 1996!).
12m sold in 7 years isn't nearly as successful as the Pocket, Color, Advance, DS, and PSP handhelds.


Shall I make a graph to show the sales difference of the different GB models over the years (+Sega & Sony's models)?
 

Square2005

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Done.

Handhelds are selling at a much faster rate than in the early 90s. The GBC sold what the original GB sold in less than half the time! And the DS looks even more impressive having sold twice what the original GBA did and in less time!


Edit: Just wanted to clear up some misconceptions I hear a lot...
 

tanod

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Can you separate all the different models of gameboy and the PSP on your graph?

EDIT: For every iteration on a handheld, there's a large probability that there are repeat buyers. I'm just interested to know.
 

BishopLamont

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ethelred said:
What a coincidence... toss in Sega and those are the only companies that make money off the DS.
Yep all those little developers are just wasting their money away on the DS.
 

ethelred

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BishopLamont said:
Yep all those little developers are just wasting their money away on the DS.
You mean like Falcom, Nippon Ichi, Idea Factory, Xseed, MMV, Taito, Yukes...?

Sorry, but a saying only three companies make money or see success on the PSP is as stupid and asinine as Mono's old "only Square and Nintendo sell on the DS" canard.
 

BishopLamont

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ethelred said:
You mean like Falcom, Nippon Ichi, Idea Factory, Xseed, MMV, Taito, Yukes...?

Sorry, but a saying only three companies make money or see success on the PSP is as stupid and asinine as Mono's old "only Square and Nintendo sell on the DS" canard.
But it's true, only SE and Nintendo make money on the DS, everyone else makes peanuts compared to them. On the PSP only Capcom and SE make money, everyone makes peanuts. There's more peanuts to be made on the DS for little developers.
 

Fafalada

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Jun 22, 2004
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speedpop said:
Are Sony going to get rid of the old PSP design or sell it alongside the Slim PSP?
There's no more fat (it ceased production awhile back), this transition is totally equivalent to PSOne/PSTwo - including the manufacturing cost improvements for Sony.
 

jarrod

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ethelred said:
Alske: when people talk about the rest of the year's lineup they're talking about both quality gaming and sales potential. To narrow things down to the sales specifically...

PMD2: guaranteed million seller. It'll be one of the overall top selling games this year and will end up with at least 1.5 mil or so.

FFT A2: won't be a massive blockbuster seller but nothing to scoff at either. Should slightly exceed sales of its predecessor, will probably do around 400k.

ToI: needs, and probably will, do between 500-600k. Again, this'll make it one of the higher sellers this year.

ASH: not gong to be too big, but should net some pretty good sales. I'd look for it to match Blue Dragon's 200k.

Star Force 2: should top its predecessor with between 550-650k. Only having two versions this time is smart.

Layton 2: should, again, beat the first. Established popularity this time plus a better marketing campaign should lead to better front end sales which eliminates some used sales. Can see it doing 700k.

FF4r: sorry guys, but with the effort Square is putting into this and the bar FF3r set, this needs to go plat. 600k isn't going to cut it. The prior ports should have minimal impact given that, as Charlie noted, they really never sold all that much to begin with, and also because of the completely overhauled nature of the game and the amount of additional content. Ff3 was severely undershipped and Square is clearly looking for FF4 to be its big blockbuster title this year to rake in the huge holiday sales. They will not be happy with a subplat performance. FF3's sales weren't because it had never been ported -- even if you add up all three releases of ff4 since the sfami it wouldnt equal the million that ff3 did. The sales were because it was the first authentic DQ-level remake and the expectations would be for a continuation of those sales levels for this strategy to be vindicated.

DQ4: could see this one doing under a million because it's mostly the same as the psx remake we've already seem released and because the portable DQ remakes have always a bit underperformed the console ones. However, the presence of DQ9 should continue to do much for the DQ userbase on the system and that can only help sales. At the least it should do 700k easy, and that'll still make it one of the highest sellers of the year. Fwiw, YSO expects it to sell a million.
Oh, oh, my turn!

By year's end, I expect totals around...

PMD2 ~1.8m combined (srsly!)
FFTA2 ~475k
TOI ~450k
ASH ~175k
RRM2 ~600k combined
Layton 2 ~550k
FF4 ~750k
DQ4 ~1.1m
Mario Party DS ~225k
Bangai-O Spirits ~15k :(

CCFF7 ~850k
Mingol P2 ~350k (depending on release timeframe)
Gundam Battle ~175k

Galaxy ~1.2m (srsly! 600k+ 1st week)
SSBB ~800k (depending of release timeframe)
Wii Fit ~950k (depending on release timeframe)
REUC ~225k
CD3 ~350k
NiGHTS ~125k
Treasure Island Z ~75k

Basara 2H (PS2) ~200k
Basara 2H (Wii) ~75k

Musou 5 (PS3) ~300k
Musou 5 (360) ~50k

WE2008 (PS2) ~550k
WE2008 (PS3) ~150k
WE2008 (360) ~25k

Halo 3 ~100k
LO ~150k
VF5 Live ~75k
Gundam Troy ~75k

GT5Pro ~275k
TC4 ~75k


...good estimates by the way ethel, I largely agree on everything you mentioned.