Couple of things... how well did FFTA perform? I'm not really sure why people are expecting great sales from it. Same with DQ4, it's not really an upgrade so I don't see why we're expecting million-plus sales. Finally, is there actually a marketing push behind ASH? Why is it going to tear up the charts?
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Media Create Sales: 9/10-9/16 2007
- Thread starter Raw64life
- Start date
charlequin
Banned
jj984jj said:
So you think the remake of the more popular game, with more new content, released during (rather than before) the holiday season, with a bigger marketing push, on a platform that's sold something like 8 million units in the intervening time, and (presumably) not afflicted with sales-crippling supply problems, is going to sell dramatically worse. I guess it's not impossible but I hardly think "the original version has been rereleased before" is enough of a reason to consider it likely.
What figure are you expecting for DQ4, out of curiosity?
Yes, I think the the primary reason for FFIII's success was mainly due to the amount of people who played the original, and the amount of people who were interested in playing it but couldn't easily do so until now. I don't think the revamped FFIV will do enough to push it to 1 million faster, and most people overestimate the value of a larger userbase (I don't think it will make several hundreds of thousands units difference in this case). I don't think it'll do dramatically worse though. :lolcharlequin said:
I expect DQIV to sell around 1-1.5 million, though I don't know what the PS1 version sold though.
Eteric Rice
Member
Lobster said:
Didn't it pass the PS2 in Japan already?
Pai Pai Master
Banned
Laguna said:
Because the game has been re-released multiple times. FFIII DS was the first time it had been rereleased in Japan, if I'm not mistaken, or at least one of the few. (Was there a Wonderswan Color remake?)
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Yep.Lobster said:
And when it does it will surpass it and go on to be one of the most successful handheld of all time in Japan. If the market swings like I think is likely the PSP will have the dubious honor of being the most successful non-Nintendo handheld of all time as well, and the handheld market will expand like mad.
charlequin
Banned
Laguna said:
It sold dramatically more in its original release and has had a variety of widely spaced rereleases to introduce it to new players. Plus there's historically been a good amount of fanstuff (cosplay, fanart/manga, etc.) -- I suspect that having actual characters helps here.
I'm open for an argument why I'm mistaken.
Thunder Monkey said:
How about "most successful second-in-category system of all time"?
Christopher
Member
NomarTyme said:
um it's already well on its way
Thunder Monkey
Banned
That'll work.charlequin said:
JoshuaJSlone
Member
I believe that includes Game Boy Color, though I couldn't tell you just what the split is.alske said:
Hcoregamer00
The 'H' stands for hentai.
Thunder Monkey said:
The PSP has the record of being the most successful Non-Nintendo console ever. The only thing it needs to break is the 8 year lifespan of the Game Gear.
charlequin
Banned
Laguna said:
Right, which is why I cited other reasons besides the pure sales figures. If you want to present an actual reason for suspecting the reverse, like I said, I'm willing to listen.
jj984jj said:
I'm pretty sure the number includes GBC, and it's not that hard to believe considering it had a lifespan of over 10 years and had basically no competition worth mentioning.
As for DQIV DS, I'd predict around 600k-700k. I can't see an enhanced port of a remake of any game, even a DQ game, selling a million.
charlequin said:
I didn´t declare one game more popular than the other that was you. I just asked you on what you based your statement. Like I said before FF3 wasn´t remade/ported for a long time and that actually helped sales alot. FFIV could sell like FFIII or a little better and it´s releasedate is perfect (afaik 20-25.12.) but it could also sell worse. That is just something that you can´t be sure.
Alske: when people talk about the rest of the year's lineup they're talking about both quality gaming and sales potential. To narrow things down to the sales specifically...
PMD2: guaranteed million seller. It'll be one of the overall top selling games this year and will end up with at least 1.5 mil or so.
FFT A2: won't be a massive blockbuster seller but nothing to scoff at either. Should slightly exceed sales of its predecessor, will probably do around 400k.
ToI: needs, and probably will, do between 500-600k. Again, this'll make it one of the higher sellers this year.
ASH: not gong to be too big, but should net some pretty good sales. I'd look for it to match Blue Dragon's 200k.
Star Force 2: should top its predecessor with between 550-650k. Only having two versions this time is smart.
Layton 2: should, again, beat the first. Established popularity this time plus a better marketing campaign should lead to better front end sales which eliminates some used sales. Can see it doing 700k.
FF4r: sorry guys, but with the effort Square is putting into this and the bar FF3r set, this needs to go plat. 600k isn't going to cut it. The prior ports should have minimal impact given that, as Charlie noted, they really never sold all that much to begin with, and also because of the completely overhauled nature of the game and the amount of additional content. Ff3 was severely undershipped and Square is clearly looking for FF4 to be its big blockbuster title this year to rake in the huge holiday sales. They will not be happy with a subplat performance. FF3's sales weren't because it had never been ported -- even if you add up all three releases of ff4 since the sfami it wouldnt equal the million that ff3 did. The sales were because it was the first authentic DQ-level remake and the expectations would be for a continuation of those sales levels for this strategy to be vindicated.
DQ4: could see this one doing under a million because it's mostly the same as the psx remake we've already seem released and because the portable DQ remakes have always a bit underperformed the console ones. However, the presence of DQ9 should continue to do much for the DQ userbase on the system and that can only help sales. At the least it should do 700k easy, and that'll still make it one of the highest sellers of the year. Fwiw, YSO expects it to sell a million.
PMD2: guaranteed million seller. It'll be one of the overall top selling games this year and will end up with at least 1.5 mil or so.
FFT A2: won't be a massive blockbuster seller but nothing to scoff at either. Should slightly exceed sales of its predecessor, will probably do around 400k.
ToI: needs, and probably will, do between 500-600k. Again, this'll make it one of the higher sellers this year.
ASH: not gong to be too big, but should net some pretty good sales. I'd look for it to match Blue Dragon's 200k.
Star Force 2: should top its predecessor with between 550-650k. Only having two versions this time is smart.
Layton 2: should, again, beat the first. Established popularity this time plus a better marketing campaign should lead to better front end sales which eliminates some used sales. Can see it doing 700k.
FF4r: sorry guys, but with the effort Square is putting into this and the bar FF3r set, this needs to go plat. 600k isn't going to cut it. The prior ports should have minimal impact given that, as Charlie noted, they really never sold all that much to begin with, and also because of the completely overhauled nature of the game and the amount of additional content. Ff3 was severely undershipped and Square is clearly looking for FF4 to be its big blockbuster title this year to rake in the huge holiday sales. They will not be happy with a subplat performance. FF3's sales weren't because it had never been ported -- even if you add up all three releases of ff4 since the sfami it wouldnt equal the million that ff3 did. The sales were because it was the first authentic DQ-level remake and the expectations would be for a continuation of those sales levels for this strategy to be vindicated.
DQ4: could see this one doing under a million because it's mostly the same as the psx remake we've already seem released and because the portable DQ remakes have always a bit underperformed the console ones. However, the presence of DQ9 should continue to do much for the DQ userbase on the system and that can only help sales. At the least it should do 700k easy, and that'll still make it one of the highest sellers of the year. Fwiw, YSO expects it to sell a million.
ethelred said:
If it wasn't clear, I was only talking about sales before as well. I think I agree with most of your predictions. However, I still think FF4 will underperform.
As far as quality goes, I expect to like ASH and Layton 2 a lot (though not enough to import). I didn't care for DQ4 on PSX, don't like Mysterious Dungeon or Tales games, hated Battle Network 4 and 5, and think that FF4 is horrendously ugly yet still somewhat appealing.
DQI-III weren't remakes of the SFC versions, quite the opposite, they were noticeable downgrades from that. I think DQIV will perform better than those, it might not pass the million mark before the end of the year though, I had no clue DQVr was the best performance of the remakes. I think it'll pass the million mark before FFIV though.
Square2005
Banned
Stumpokapow said:
incorrect. FFIII shipped 1.40m on the Famicom. You should add it to your graph.
someone said said:
Incorrect. The original Game Boy shipped: ~12m, The GB Pocket: ~9m, GB Color: 11.86m
The Game Boy family combined sold ~32m.
You guys always overblow the success of the original GB. It wasn't nearly as popular as its successors in Japan or the U.S. (Teh Pokermans didn't come until 1996!).
12m sold in 7 years isn't nearly as successful as the Pocket, Color, Advance, DS, and PSP handhelds.
Shall I make a graph to show the sales difference of the different GB models over the years (+Sega & Sony's models)?
Square2005
Banned
Done.
Handhelds are selling at a much faster rate than in the early 90s. The GBC sold what the original GB sold in less than half the time! And the DS looks even more impressive having sold twice what the original GBA did and in less time!
Edit: Just wanted to clear up some misconceptions I hear a lot...
Handhelds are selling at a much faster rate than in the early 90s. The GBC sold what the original GB sold in less than half the time! And the DS looks even more impressive having sold twice what the original GBA did and in less time!
Edit: Just wanted to clear up some misconceptions I hear a lot...
BishopLamont
Banned
ethelred said:
Yep all those little developers are just wasting their money away on the DS.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Remake isn't synonymous with upgrade. They were new versions made from scratch, retained things that were added to the SFC versions, and included new additions.jj984jj said:
BishopLamont
Banned
ethelred said:
But it's true, only SE and Nintendo make money on the DS, everyone else makes peanuts compared to them. On the PSP only Capcom and SE make money, everyone makes peanuts. There's more peanuts to be made on the DS for little developers.
Oh, oh, my turn!ethelred said:
By year's end, I expect totals around...
PMD2 ~1.8m combined (srsly!)
FFTA2 ~475k
TOI ~450k
ASH ~175k
RRM2 ~600k combined
Layton 2 ~550k
FF4 ~750k
DQ4 ~1.1m
Mario Party DS ~225k
Bangai-O Spirits ~15k
CCFF7 ~850k
Mingol P2 ~350k (depending on release timeframe)
Gundam Battle ~175k
Galaxy ~1.2m (srsly! 600k+ 1st week)
SSBB ~800k (depending of release timeframe)
Wii Fit ~950k (depending on release timeframe)
REUC ~225k
CD3 ~350k
NiGHTS ~125k
Treasure Island Z ~75k
Basara 2H (PS2) ~200k
Basara 2H (Wii) ~75k
Musou 5 (PS3) ~300k
Musou 5 (360) ~50k
WE2008 (PS2) ~550k
WE2008 (PS3) ~150k
WE2008 (360) ~25k
Halo 3 ~100k
LO ~150k
VF5 Live ~75k
Gundam Troy ~75k
GT5Pro ~275k
TC4 ~75k
...good estimates by the way ethel, I largely agree on everything you mentioned.