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Media Create Sales: Aug 3 - 9, 2009

schuelma said:
I wouldn't go that far- numbers were probably inflated because of the holiday. It could make it, but if it does it will probably be off the chart growth, i.e we will see it at a random top 10 Wii LTD update or something like that. I don't see it making a million by staying in the top 30.

Hot damn I was right :lol
markatisu said:
MHG Wii

Week 1 (4/20-4/26) 131,647
Week 2 (4/27-5/30) 40,294 [172,000]
Week 3 (5/04-5/10) 23,000 [195,000]

It then stayed on the charts for 4+ weeks after that but without solid numbers (that I found)

Now completely using basic math here is MH3 Wii using a similar drop from week to week

Week 1 520,000
Week 2 137,000 [657,00]
Week 3 ~79-80k (~736,000)

So far it has almost exactly followed MHG in terms of drop off
 

botticus

Member
Jun 15, 2007
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Not sure how close a race it will be (next week will be most telling), but I'll be keeping an eye on DQIX's track to 4 million versus MH3 to 1 million.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Feb 11, 2007
21,699
1
0
nipponsalesage.blogspot.com
cvxfreak said:
MH3 is on track to hit 40 - 45K next week if it continues to maintain a close relationship to Dynasty Warriors 5. MH3 will hit a million or close on the strength of its legs. I suspect it'll do so around the holiday season.


I think if we assume that the holiday had at least a small effect on Tri this week then we'll probably see lower than that.
 
schuelma said:
I think if we assume that the holiday had at least a small effect on Tri this week then we'll probably see lower than that.

40-45k sounds about right, MHG basically lost 42.5% of its previous weeks for when it was in the Top 10, Tri is doing similar

I wonder what the floor/baseline for MH3 will be. I do not see it leaving all together after 8 weeks like MHG did, but it obviously wont carry 60-90k a week either.
 

cvxfreak

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Jun 7, 2004
31,864
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www.twitter.com
Sinobi also notes that Tri's sales this week were 52% of last week's. For MH2, the fall had been more drastic, with third week sales being only 41% of the second week.

For MHP2, third week sales were 60.8% of second week sales.
 

Jonnyram

Member
Jun 8, 2004
19,828
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0
Neo Tokyo
cvxfreak said:
Sinobi also notes that Tri's sales this week were 52% of last week's. For MH2, the fall had been more drastic, with third week sales being only 41% of the second week.

For MHP2, third week sales were 60.8% of second week sales.
Yes but sales were inflated across the board because of Obon, so it's harder to judge.
 

onken

Member
Dec 15, 2008
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850
some place.. far away. yes, that will do
Pretty good numbers for MH3, should reach 1 mil without too much trouble.

Segata Sanshiro said:
Why weren't the PS3s 29980 today when I went looking? Slow bastards. :(

Apparently there's no official price drop in Japan for the fatties. Stores better start slashing prices sharpish because there's no way anyone is going to buy one after Sep 2.
 
Nov 17, 2006
24,417
0
0
42
Koga, Ibaraki, Japan
onken said:
Pretty good numbers for MH3, should reach 1 mil without too much trouble.



Apparently there's no official price drop in Japan for the fatties. Stores better start slashing prices sharpish because there's no way anyone is going to buy one after Sep 2.
Lame. I want one of the fat ones. A little birdie told me the Blu-Ray drive in the Slims sucks moose balls.
 

cvxfreak

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Jun 7, 2004
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Jonnyram said:
Yes but sales were inflated across the board because of Obon, so it's harder to judge.

It is difficult to judge. MH3 has been the hardest game to understand in a very long time.

I took Obon into consideration, but the game is also carefully following DW5 (and even ahead). Combined with the comparison of sales patterns to previous MH games, I'm actually not too sure if sales would have been substantially lower had Obon not been around. The basic trajectory of Tri seems rather fixed at this point, especially since we know 80% of the shipment is gone. It's just a question of whether the game will sell 5 - 10K a week for the foreseeable future or drop off entirely.
 
cvxfreak said:
It is difficult to judge. MH3 has been the hardest game to understand in a very long time.

I took Obon into consideration, but the game is also carefully following DW5 (and even ahead). Combined with the comparison of sales patterns to previous MH games, I'm actually not too sure if sales would have been substantially lower had Obon not been around. The basic trajectory of Tri seems rather fixed at this point, especially since we know 80% of the shipment is gone. It's just a question of whether the game will sell 5 - 10K a week for the foreseeable future or drop off entirely.

I think 5-10k a week starting around week 8 or 9 is a good bet, till MH3P is announced
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Mar 22, 2007
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cvxfreak said:
Shouldn't this week have high sales numbers due to the holiday?
Ah, i totally forgot about the holiday. Then the sales had a bigger chance to increase indeed. If i remembered the holiday, then i would probably have said like 60-90k instead of 50-70k for Monster Hunter 3 :)
 

Tenbatsu

Member
May 9, 2007
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Jonnyram said:
MH3 sold 72,000 this week, total 793,000
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
May 21, 2006
17,232
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apotema said:
Do we expect Pokemon Gold and Silver remakes to exceed DQIX numbers???

No. Almost certainly not combined, and not even in the realm of possibility individually.
 
apotema said:
Do we expect Pokemon Gold and Silver remakes to exceed DQIX numbers???
Others already said "No." I agree. Here's something I wrote a couple weeks ago elsewhere:
Both huge, for sure, but anything past a new main pair of Pokemon games is slightly less huge. DQ IX basically matched Platinum's lifetime sales in its first week, and matched the lifetime sales of FireRed/LeafGreen remakes by its third.

So unless IX hits the breaks immediately and Gold/Silver remakes are big sales leaps forward, IX wins.
Since then, DQ IX has failed to hit the breaks.
 

Mugaaz

Member
Feb 13, 2009
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As a MH fan I want to offer why the sales for MH3 are the way they are.... it's because every single person who wants another MH game buys them. No one is on the fence when it comes to MH. You either love or hate the game. It doesn't have "legs" because anyone who wanted and was capable of getting it has already done so. The other sales are from people who came into owning a Wii for whatever reason. Also, they are earning a monthly fee of a large portion of those sales which is some major revenue.

Comparing it to games like DQ9 makes no sense. I haven't played or bought DQ9 because I just wasn't that interested in another turn based rpg, but I could change my mind if there was some good deal. Compare that to a buddy of mine who didn't buy MH because he wasn't a fan of it's weird genre. He is not going to change his mind if there is a sale, nothing is going to change his mind, he is not going to be converted no matter what. The same goes for me the other way, I'll be picking up MH3 and a Wii day1, not day 31.
 

nli10

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Nov 16, 2005
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Mugaaz said:
As a MH fan I want to offer why the sales for MH3 are the way they are.... it's because every single person who wants another MH game buys them. No one is on the fence when it comes to MH. You either love or hate the game. It doesn't have "legs" because anyone who wanted and was capable of getting it has already done so. The other sales are from people who came into owning a Wii for whatever reason. Also, they are earning a monthly fee of a large portion of those sales which is some major revenue.

Comparing it to games like DQ9 makes no sense. I haven't played or bought DQ9 because I just wasn't that interested in another turn based rpg, but I could change my mind if there was some good deal. Compare that to a buddy of mine who didn't buy MH because he wasn't a fan of it's weird genre. He is not going to change his mind if there is a sale, nothing is going to change his mind, he is not going to be converted no matter what. The same goes for me the other way, I'll be picking up MH3 and a Wii day1, not day 31.

What about the younger people getting MH3 and a Wii for their birthday or other ritual gift giving occasion? What about people newly getting into the genre as they did not have PSP?
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
Famitsu data:
Code:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|  |  Dragon Quest VII | Dragon Quest VIII |  Dragon Quest IX  |       difference     |
|--|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|----------|-----------|
| #|  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |DQIX-DQVII|DQIX-DQVIII|
|--|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|----------|-----------|
| 1|1.862.065|1.862.065|2.236.881|2.236.881|2.343.440|2.343.440|   481.375|    106.559|
| 2|1.072.286|2.934.351|  559.524|2.796.405|  602.856|2.946.296|    11.945|    149.891|
| 3|  329.317|3.263.668|  200.033|2.996.438|  271.206|3.217.502|   -46.166|    221.064|
| 4|  154.797|3.418.465|  116.731|3.113.169|  172.728|3.390.230|   -28.235|    277.061|
| 5|   83.918|3.502.383|  118.119|3.231.288|  107.000|3.497.000|    -5.383|    265.712|
| 6|   64.351|3.566.734|   95.879|3.327.167|  121.000|3.618.000|    51.266|    298.833|
| 7|   43.717|3.610.451|   56.945|3.384.112|         |         |          |           |
| 8|   33.852|3.644.302|   22.175|3.406.287|         |         |          |           |
| 9|   21.429|3.665.731|   11.611|3.417.898|         |         |          |           |
|10|   18.191|3.683.923|   11.293|3.429.191|         |         |          |           |
|11|   18.360|3.702.283|    9.892|3.439.083|         |         |          |           |
|12|   13.941|3.716.224|    9.389|3.448.472|         |         |          |           |
|13|   10.541|3.726.765|    7.403|3.455.875|         |         |          |           |
|14|    8.841|3.735.606|    6.698|3.462.573|         |         |          |           |
|15|    9.147|3.744.754|    6.490|3.469.063|         |         |          |           |
|16|    8.903|3.753.657|    5.103|3.474.166|         |         |          |           |
|17|        -|        -|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|18|        -|        -|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|19|   10.769|3.784.682|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|20|   15.632|3.800.315|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|21|    5.634|3.805.949|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|22|    5.643|3.811.591|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|23|    6.190|3.817.781|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|24|    4.184|3.821.965|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|25|    4.406|3.826.371|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|26|    5.227|3.831.598|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|27|    3.848|3.835.446|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|28|    5.083|3.840.529|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|29|    4.859|3.845.388|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|--|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|----------|-----------|
| -|   LTD   |3.893.293|   LTD   |3.538.860|   LTD   |3.618.000|  -275.293|    79.140|
| -|shipments|4.150.000|shipments|3.700.000|shipments|         |          |           |
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DQ IX > DQ VIII and has surpassed DQ VII in terms of alligned weekly sales. DQ VIII total shipments were 3,7M and I guess it's safe to say that DQ IX shipments are already bigger than this number. DQ IX is not going to fall back DQ VII again, as DQ VII starts to pull really low numbers from now on and the holiday Christmas season has almost zero effect on it.

Obon destroys Golden Week. This is the top 10 of this year's Golden Week (famitsu)

01. [NDS] WarioWare: Do-It-Yourself (Nintendo) - 44.338 / 114.310
02. [NDS] Dragon Ball Z: Attack of the Saiyans (Namco Bandai) - 42.819 / 144.035
03. [NDS] Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Explorers of Sky (Pokemon) - 41.446 / 283.049
04. [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom Unite (PSP the Best) (Capcom) - 22.697 / 698.001
05. [NDS] Mario & Luigi: Bowser's Inside Story (Nintendo) - 22.404 / 593.708
06. [WII] Wii Fit (Nintendo) - 21.913 / 3.351.551
07. [WII] Monster Hunter G (Capcom) - 18.773 / 196.196
08. [WII] Taiko Drum Master Wii (Namco Bandai) - 17.193 / 538.719
09. [PS2] Jikkyou Powerful Major League 2009 (Namco Bandai) - 15.198 / 55.583
10. [NDS] Rhythm Heaven: Tap into the Rhythm (Nintendo) - 13.994 / 1.712.441

And this is the top 10 of this year's Obon (famitsu)

01. [NDS] Friend Collection (Nintendo) - 126.000 / 699.000
02. [NDS] Dragon Quest IX: Defenders of the Starry Sky (Square Enix) - 121.000 / 3.618.000
03. [WII] Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo) - 108.000 / 971.000
04. [WII] Monster Hunter 3 (Capcom) - 72.000 / 793.000
05. [PS2] SD Gundam G Generation Wars (Namco Bandai)
06. [PSP] Tales of Vs. (Namco Bandai)
07. [NDS] Puyo Puyo 7 (Sega)
08. [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom Unite (PSP the Best) (Capcom)
09. [NDS] Tingle's Love Balloon Trip (Nintendo)
10. [NDS] Blood of Bahamut (Square Enix)

Golden Week's top 10 is 260.775 units when Obon's top 4 is 427.000 units.
In fact Golden Week's top 30 is 411.192 units (the number isn't exact since we have precise numbers only for top 20 and the rest 10 are the rounded from sinobi, so maybe there is a 4.000-5.000 error at the sum). This is something you don't see very often (I haven't checked it but from memory I don't think it has happened ever before, at least not at this scale). The same will happen and hardware wise:

This is the hardware (famitsu / m-create)

[DSi] - 46.379 / 55.382
[PSP] - 45.774 / 43.009
[WII] - 20.107 / 24.397
[PS3] - 17.163 / 18.483
[DSL] - 7.455 / 7.821
[360] - 6.603 / 5.068
[PS2] - 6.377 / 5.137

On a second thought every system will probably be down with the exception of Wii and DS.

About Pokemon HeartGold / SoulSilver: It's unfair to make predictions based on FireRed / LeadGreen sales. Every Pokemon on DS has outsold its GBA pair and this one comes packed with some kind of hardware. I won't be surprised if I see an opening week similar to Diamond / Pearl even though it launches on Saturday. I tend to agree it won't match DQ IX sales but first I want to DQ IX sales the following weeks until pokemon launch. I have very high expectations for Pokemon HG / SS (I see it doing close to 4,5M) but maybe I'm completely off at this one.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
May 21, 2006
17,232
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0
Chris1964 said:
About Pokemon HeartGold / SoulSilver: It's unfair to make predictions based on FireRed / LeadGreen sales. Every Pokemon on DS has outsold its GBA pair and this one comes packed with some kind of hardware. I won't be surprised if I see an opening week similar to Diamond / Pearl even though it launches on Saturday. I tend to agree it won't match DQ IX sales but first I want to DQ IX sales the following weeks until pokemon launch. I have very high expectations for Pokemon HG / SS (I see it doing close to 4,5M) but maybe I'm completely off at this one.

Pokemon DP = Pokemon RuSa + 350k (106% of RuSa).
Pokemon Platinum = Pokemon Emerald + 350k (117% of Emerald).

Pokemon FR/LG = 2,985,000.

+350k = 3,335,000
+6% = 3,164,100
+17% = 3,492,450.

4,400,000 (To give you 100k leeway for "close to") = +47% / +1,415k

Moreover, the DS has declined hardware-wise since the earlier Pokemon games on the system. Now, that's not to say ongoing hardware sales are necessarily linked to software sales, just that if they are linked, it's not likely to be favourable for HG/SS.

I'm not saying what you're describing is impossible, because I think Gold and Silver are well regarded, Nintendo isn't launching much else and thus will focus on it hard, and the pedometer thing is kinda neat and I think sells itself in advertising...

But I would say that 4.5m is definitely a little extreme. I see it doing somewhere around 3.5 million during its active sales period (RuSa were still selling in the Top 500 in 2005 or 2006 or something--so I won't comment on those late life sales), give or take maybe 200k. I don't think an opening week similar to DP is out of the question, though. I'd personally peg it at maybe 1-1.2 million versus RuSa's 1.25 million and DP's 1.5 million and FRLG's 955k.

I very rarely give predictions, too. So it's going to be the battle of the GAF tags on this one!
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
Stumpokapow said:
Pokemon DP = Pokemon RuSa + 350k (106% of RuSa).
Pokemon Platinum = Pokemon Emerald + 350k (117% of Emerald).

Pokemon FR/LG = 2,985,000.

+350k = 3,335,000
+6% = 3,164,100
+17% = 3,492,450.

4,400,000 (To give you 100k leeway for "close to") = +47% / +1,415k

Moreover, the DS has declined hardware-wise since the earlier Pokemon games on the system. Now, that's not to say ongoing hardware sales are necessarily linked to software sales, just that if they are linked, it's not likely to be favourable for HG/SS.

I'm not saying what you're describing is impossible, because I think Gold and Silver are well regarded, Nintendo isn't launching much else and thus will focus on it hard, and the paedometer thing is kinda neat and I think sells itself in advertising...

But I would say that 4.5m is definitely a little extreme. I see it doing somewhere around 3.5 million during its active sales period (RuSa were still selling in the Top 500 in 2005 or 2006 or something--so I won't comment on those late life sales), give or take maybe 200k. I don't think an opening week similar to DP is out of the question, though. I'd personally peg it at maybe 1-1.2 million versus RuSa's 1.25 million and DP's 1.5 million and FRLG's 955k.

I very rarely give predictions, too. So it's going to be the battle of the GAF tags on this one!
I understand what you say and I know that my prediction is a little extreme but like I said I have very high expectations for this game. If its first week is 1,5M-2,0M (extreme prediction again) maybe there is a possibility to achieve the 4,5M goal. If not I'm obviously wrong.
 

Mugaaz

Member
Feb 13, 2009
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nli10 said:
What about the younger people getting MH3 and a Wii for their birthday or other ritual gift giving occasion? What about people newly getting into the genre as they did not have PSP?

What about them? There are so few it's meaningless.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Mar 22, 2007
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Chris1964 said:
He didn't give an exact number but he said that according to the preorder data he had from his ''source'' the future of this game wasn' t bright. He repeated this statement at many media create threads and was very sure about his prediction.
Ok, thanks for the answer :) (i know that you answered to apujanata, but i was wondering about the same thing, so i got the answer to my question as well, thanks :)). The future of Wii Sports Resorts looks bright at the moment, there shouldnt be too much doubt about that. I wonder how Wii Sports Resort will contunie to sell and how big of a chance there is that it will outsell (or at least sell close to) Wii Sports.

How has Wii Sports Resort affected the Wii Sports sales by the way? Does anyone know?


Segata Sanshiro said:
Lame. I want one of the fat ones. A little birdie told me the Blu-Ray drive in the Slims sucks moose balls.
Why do you think that the Blu-ray drive will be bad in the PS3 Slim? Or is it just a joke to "justify" (or what i shall say) to buy a PS3 Phat instead of a PS3 Slim? :)
 
Nov 17, 2006
24,417
0
0
42
Koga, Ibaraki, Japan
test_account said:
Why do you think that the Blu-ray drive will be bad in the PS3 Slim? Or is it just a joke to "justify" (or what i shall say) to buy a PS3 Phat instead of a PS3 Slim? :)
As I said, a little birdie told me. I was already torn because I think the Slim is ugly as sin, but that info tipped me to the fat side, in spite of losing 40 GB and being more of a pain to bring back to Canada when I finally leave here.

I've had too much bad luck with system failures this gen. I'm not prepared to accept another one.
 

duckroll

Member
Jun 7, 2004
114,734
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dolemite said:
Still no numbers? I thought Famitsu was going to start releasing the numbers one day earlier this month, not later.

Why would they release numbers earlier?
 

Busaiku

Member
Apr 5, 2006
46,928
1
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cartman414 said:
How did Puyo 7 bounce back? Sales spike, or statistical noise?
Puyo Puyo titles always have good legs.
Most of the titles this gen had never once appeared on the top 30, however, they've always made it into at least the top 500.
The DS rerelease of Puyo Puyo launched with 4.4k, but went on to do 81k.
 

Jonnyram

Member
Jun 8, 2004
19,828
1
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Neo Tokyo
dolemite said:
Still no numbers? I thought Famitsu was going to start releasing the numbers one day earlier this month, not later.
Maybe they'll start releasing the launch day sales before the games even hit stores!