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Jonnyram · Dec 16, 2010

Ni no kuni had to overship:
- it comes with a fat hardback book
- we're coming up to the end of the year holidays

How would restocking occur in a timely manner if they have shipped more reasonable numbers? Everyone in the supply chain will be aware of this, and the nature of the title lends itself to longer term sales anyway.

Grimmy · Dec 16, 2010

test_account said:
I dont think that the 3DS will affect Monster Hunter on PSP since i guess that MHP3G will be the last Monster Hunter game for the PSP. If MHP4 goes to 3DS or PSP2 should be quite interesting to see. Seeing how good MH does on the PSP, i would be surprised if Sony isnt already talking to Capcom about MHP4 on the PSP2. But who knows

I think we might see a MHP3G for the PSP yet...

Hammer24 · Dec 16, 2010

Do we know how large the first shipment for GT5 was?

gconsole · Dec 16, 2010

test_account said:
I dont think that the 3DS will affect Monster Hunter on PSP since i guess that MHP3G will be the last Monster Hunter game for the PSP. If MHP4 goes to 3DS or PSP2 should be quite interesting to see. Seeing how good MH does on the PSP, i would be surprised if Sony isnt already talking to Capcom about MHP4 on the PSP2. But who knows

It's Capcom. You will get MHP4 on 3DS, PSP2, PSPPhone, iPhone5, iPad and on Android mobile.

FINALFANTASYDOG · Dec 16, 2010

Not sure why these haven't been brought up on neogaf but 2 random news bits that are all over Japanese retailer blogs:

1. Tales of Vespia Quietly passed the 400k Mark on PS3

2. Apparently supplies of Donkey Kong Returns at wholesalers is very limited

Kurosaki Ichigo · Dec 16, 2010

FINALFANTASYDOG said:
Not sure why these haven't been brought up on neogaf but 2 random news bits that are all over Japanese retailer blogs:

1. Tales of Vesperia Quietly passed the 400k Mark on PS3

It was brought up, its Dengeki that has it at 391k.

Btw from Famitsu top30 they mention Graces F outsold Graces Wii giving a updated LTD for it of 213k (previous one was 203k). Famitsu has Graces F start at 220k.

For a Graces F vs Vesperia PS3 comparison it must be said that while the opening is very similar, the second week (going by MC) is a bit lower, and given that we're in december, shelf time won't be as long this time, Graces Wii was much more front-loaded (67% 1st week/LTD) than Vesperia 360 (50% 1st week/LTD) and being the second on PS3 it should be more front-loaded than Vesperia PS3, we're most definitely looking at Graces F falling behind.

Vesperia PS3 legs btw:
[PS3] Tales of Vesperia (Bandai Namco) - 227.506 / 227.506
[PS3] Tales of Vesperia (Bandai Namco) - 44.959 / 272.465
[PS3] Tales of Vesperia (Bandai Namco) - 18.176 / 290.641
[PS3] Tales of Vesperia (Bandai Namco) - 9.873 / 300.514
[PS3] Tales of Vesperia (Bandai Namco) - 6.616 / 307.130
[PS3] Tales of Vesperia (Bandai Namco) - 4.998 / 312.128
Famitsu data, on week 6 it was below 5k and at 312k but eventually got (out of charts) to 362k a few months ago, and this Dengeki 391k probably will translate to Famitsu currently having it higher than that 362k as well. Most likely the reason we haven't seen a budget re-release yet.

test_account · Dec 16, 2010

Grimmy said:
I think we might see a MHP3G for the PSP yet...

I think that MHP3G might come out for the PSP, maybe within a year from now. If rumors has it that the PSP2 might come out late next year, then i think that MHP3G will be the last MH game we see on the first PSP. Time will tell though

gconsole said:
It's Capcom. You will get MHP4 on 3DS, PSP2, PSPPhone, iPhone5, iPad and on Android mobile.

Hehe, probably

I was actually thinking about that yesterday, maybe MHP3G or MHP4 will be the first Monster Hunter game that will be released simultainesly on 2 different platforms.

vicissitudes · Dec 16, 2010

Hammer24 said:
Do we know how large the first shipment for GT5 was?

I believe 500k.

I'm really shocked at GT5's legs. Another huge drop this week. What happened to this franchise? I guess Japan is really moving away from realistic racing simulators, as well as the U.S. It doesn't help that Sony has done virtually nothing to promote GT5, basically letting it ride based on brand-name alone. The PR has been a complete disaster too, all the way up until release. Sigh.

klee123 · Dec 16, 2010

Graces F will probably do around 350K when it's all said and done. If Vesperia can do 400K, then 350K for Graces isn't impossible.

duckroll · Dec 16, 2010

vicissitudes said:
I believe 500k.

I'm really shocked at GT5's legs. Another huge drop this week. What happened to this franchise? I guess Japan is really moving away from realistic racing simulators, as well as the U.S. It doesn't help that Sony has done virtually nothing to promote GT5, basically letting it ride based on brand-name alone. The PR has been a complete disaster too, all the way up until release. Sigh.

I can't remember, but were you one of the GT warriors on Media Create threads arguing to death with me a year or more ago when I said that I don't think GT5 will have an easy time at all in Japan because of the huge decline in racing and fighting genres, as well as decline in the series in general?

I know there were at least 2 people on MC threads who felt GT5 would really easily sell over a million in Japan, and there's no way it would even struggle to do half that. Feeling pretty vindicated right now! :lol

Hammer24 · Dec 16, 2010

vicissitudes said:
I believe 500k.

Thx!

vicissitudes · Dec 16, 2010

duckroll said:
I can't remember, but were you one of the GT warriors on Media Create threads arguing to death with me a year or more ago when I said that I don't think GT5 will have an easy time at all in Japan because of the huge decline in racing and fighting genres, as well as decline in the series in general?

I know there were at least 2 people on MC threads who felt GT5 would really easily sell over a million in Japan, and there's no way it would even struggle to do half that. Feeling pretty vindicated right now! :lol

Yes I was.

(but don't rub it in

)

(also, awaiting bundles)

noobie · Dec 16, 2010

With the holidays and new year.. i think if Graces get some boast then it just might do ToV numbers.. like instead of falling from 40k to 15k to 7k if it it goes from 40k to 22k and then 12k and then level off.. then it might just go above 350k when all is said and done..

Chris1964 · Dec 16, 2010

Hammer24 said:
Do we know how large the first shipment for GT5 was?

Polyphony Digital has GT5 at 550k. Take out the 1k for online sales and you have the initial shipment

Hammer24 · Dec 16, 2010

Chris1964 said:
Polyphony Digital has GT5 at 550k. Take out the 1k for online sales and you have the initial shipment

Thx, good sir.

king zell · Dec 16, 2010

Gundam Musou 3 (this week biggest release)

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/17207

Shining Hearts (why SEGA?)

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/17205

more releases for the week (Inazuma Eleven, Castlevania etc)

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/17203

Chris1964 · Dec 16, 2010

Code:

Game 1: [NGB] Pokemon Gold / Silver {21/11/99}
Game 2: [GBA] Pokemon Ruby / Sapphire {21/11/02}
Game 3: [NDS] Pokemon Diamond / Pearl {28/09/06}
Game 4: [NDS] Pokemon Black / White {18/09/10}

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    |      Game 1       |      Game 2       |      Game 3       |      Game 4       |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
|Week|  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
|  1 |1.425.768|1.425.768|1.245.003|1.245.003|1.586.360|1.586.360|2.637.285|2.637.285|
|  2 |  438.280|1.864.049|  471.538|1.716.541|  433.793|2.020.153|  772.172|3.409.457|
|  3 |  453.500|2.317.549|  321.408|2.037.949|  291.178|2.311.331|  372.619|3.782.076|
|  4 |  301.003|2.618.551|  336.847|2.374.796|  231.627|2.542.958|  231.161|4.013.237|
|  5 |  436.828|3.055.379|  437.352|2.812.148|  209.288|2.752.246|  151.375|4.164.612|
|  6 |  573.427|3.628.627|  385.614|3.197.762|  183.048|2.935.294|   70.769|4.235.381|
|  7 |  477.507|4.106.134|  408.831|3.606.593|  124.738|3.060.032|   60.921|4.296.302|
|  8 |  258.734|4.364.868|  126.398|3.732.991|  101.113|3.161.145|   48.426|4.344.728|
|  9 |  145.778|4.510.646|  105.173|3.838.164|  110.946|3.272.091|   38.282|4.383.010|
| 10 |  144.733|4.655.379|   66.054|3.904.218|  100.215|3.372.306|   37.706|4.420.716|
| 11 |  120.138|4.775.517|   56.075|3.960.293|  151.036|3.523.342|   36.156|4.456.872|
| 12 |   98.055|4.873.571|   40.764|4.001.057|  225.228|3.748.570|   54.446|4.511.318|
| 13 |   76.713|4.950.284|   44.240|4.045.297|  429.017|4.177.587|         |         |
| 14 |   50.421|5.000.705|   34.871|4.080.168|  125.228|4.302.815|         |         |
| 15 |   48.587|5.049.292|   31.434|4.111.602|  214.274|4.517.089|         |         |
| 16 |   47.512|5.096.804|   28.464|4.140.066|   58.725|4.575.814|         |         |
| 17 |   43.827|5.140.631|   28.840|4.168.906|   49.050|4.624.864|         |         |
| 18 |   34.957|5.175.589|   35.536|4.204.442|   48.783|4.673.647|         |         |
| 19 |   33.367|5.208.956|   39.467|4.243.909|   45.467|4.719.114|         |         |
| 20 |   29.743|5.238.698|   38.913|4.282.822|   43.947|4.763.061|         |         |
| 21 |   21.582|5.260.280|   26.116|4.308.938|   39.553|4.802.614|         |         |
| 22 |   15.788|5.276.068|   22.340|4.331.278|   33.444|4.836.058|         |         |
| 23 |   14.204|5.290.272|   24.291|4.355.569|   33.470|4.869.528|         |         |
| 24 |         |         |   39.814|4.395.383|   28.774|4.898.302|         |         |
| 25 |         |         |   24.120|4.419.503|   24.119|4.922.421|         |         |
| 26 |    9.987|5.342.884|   14.681|4.434.184|   27.440|4.949.861|         |         |
| 27 |    7.308|5.350.193|   16.389|4.450.573|   24.641|4.974.502|         |         |
| 28 |    7.879|5.358.072|   17.160|4.467.733|   22.012|4.996.514|         |         |
| 29 |    7.597|5.365.669|   13.554|4.481.287|   18.874|5.015.388|         |         |
| 30 |    7.040|5.372.709|   12.887|4.494.174|   20.342|5.035.730|         |         |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
|Year|   YTD   |   LTD   |   YTD   |   LTD   |   YTD   |   LTD   |   YTD   |   LTD   |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
|  1 |3.628.627|3.628.627|3.197.762|3.197.762|4.302.815|4.302.815|         |         |
|  2 |2.383.096|6.011.723|1.704.458|4.902.220|1.094.389|5.397.204|         |         |
|  3 |   76.421|6.088.144|  287.026|5.189.246|  227.226|5.624.430|         |         |
|  4 |         |         |  113.430|5.302.676|  127.567|5.751.997|         |         |
|  5 |         |         |   34.369|5.337.045|         |         |         |         |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
| LTD|         |6.089.503|         |5.337.045|         |5.767.283|         |4.511.318|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Castor Krieg · Dec 16, 2010

About AKB1/48:

http://www.andriasang.com/e/blog/2010/12/17/akb148_dlc/

300k first week? :lol

Zoe · Dec 16, 2010

Castor Krieg said:
About AKB1/48:

http://www.andriasang.com/e/blog/2010/12/17/akb148_dlc/

300k first week? :lol

Are you surprised it's that high? They just beat a 12 year old single record last month, and I know you saw the top 10 singles list in that other thread.

Edit: Actually, I'll post the new one cause there's been a change! :lol

Code:

*1 *,954,283 **7,104 Beginner / AKB48 10/10/27 &#12288;
*2 *,713,275 **3,933 &#12504;&#12499;&#12540;&#12525;&#12540;&#12486;&#12540;&#12471;&#12519;&#12531; / AKB48 10/08/18
*3 *,698,542 ***,*** Troublemaker / &#23888; 10/03/03
*4 *,696,022 ***,*** Monster / &#23888; 10/05/19
*5 *,659,959 **2,091 &#12509;&#12491;&#12540;&#12486;&#12540;&#12523;&#12392;&#12471;&#12517;&#12471;&#12517; / AKB48 10/05/26
*6 *,656,343 **7,004 &#26524;&#12390;&#12394;&#12356;&#31354; / &#23888; 10/11/10
*7 *,620,057 ***,849 L&#966;ve Rainbow / &#23888; 10/09/08
*8 *,596,769 596,769 &#12481;&#12515;&#12531;&#12473;&#12398;&#38918;&#30058; / AKB48 10/12/08
*9 *,591,207 **1,057 Dear Snow / &#23888; 10/10/06
10 *,516,142 ***,*** To be free / &#23888; 10/07/07

All we need now is Arashi1/5.

Majmun · Dec 16, 2010

Wtf, is that a waifu simulator?

gundamkyoukai · Dec 16, 2010

duckroll said:
I can't remember, but were you one of the GT warriors on Media Create threads arguing to death with me a year or more ago when I said that I don't think GT5 will have an easy time at all in Japan because of the huge decline in racing and fighting genres, as well as decline in the series in general?

I know there were at least 2 people on MC threads who felt GT5 would really easily sell over a million in Japan, and there's no way it would even struggle to do half that. Feeling pretty vindicated right now! :lol

Yeah i also thought GT 5 would do better, then i play it and had flashbacks to FF XIII only it was worst for me.
I sold it this week .

AranhaHunter · Dec 16, 2010

Chris1964 said:
Polyphony Digital has GT5 at 550k. Take out the 1k for online sales and you have the initial shipment

AFAIK, PD never said that was their initial shipment, it was just their shipment up to a certain date. Also GT5 is not sold online, you're confusing it with GT5P.

Kurosaki Ichigo · Dec 16, 2010

As of the 1st week, Dengeki had GT5 sellthrough at 80% of 398k sold, that is roughly 500k shipped.

As of the 2nd week, Famitsu has GT5 at 479k sold with sellthrough from 76 to 100%, that is 630k as the maximum shipped scenario.

As of the 3rd week, Media Create has GT5 at 510k sold.

I doubt both SCEJ and retailers have pushed that many units after 1st week, be it 550k or say 600k it should get there easily.

Chris1964 · Dec 16, 2010

AranhaHunter said:
AFAIK, PD never said that was their initial shipment, it was just their shipment up to a certain date. Also GT5 is not sold online, you're confusing it with GT5P.

Hmm, I thought that number came out close to launch but it was at Dec 10. Maybe it had a tiny second shipment.

StealthGoblin · Dec 17, 2010

Jeez, I hope Ninokuni does well enough everywhere so the PS3 version will make it to the EU.

Has anyone played the DS version yet? Thoughts?

Jonnyram · Dec 17, 2010

Galvanise_ said:
Jeez, I hope Ninokuni does well enough everywhere so the PS3 version will make it to the EU.

Has anyone played the DS version yet? Thoughts?

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=415378
Seems it's not that popular on GAF, but there are a lot of other titles out right now, so hard for me to find time to play it.

Chris1964 · Dec 17, 2010

21. / 20. [NDS] A Penguin's Troubles: The World (Konami) {02/12/10}
22. / 10. [WII] Kamen Rider: Climax Heroes Os (Bandai Namco) {02/12/10}
23. / 09. [PSP] Kamen Rider: Climax Heroes Os (Bandai Namco) {02/12/10}
24. / 31. [WII] Wii Fit Plus (Nintendo) {01/10/09}
25. / 18. [PSP] Dangan-Ronpa (Spike) {25/11/10}
26. / 34. [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo) {25/05/06}
27. / 30. [WII] Super Mario Galaxy 2 (Nintendo) {27/05/10}
28. / 33. [NDS] Tamagotchi no Narikiri Challenge (Bandai Namco) {11/11/10}
29. / 22. [PSP] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2011 (Konami) {18/11/10}
30. / 25. [PS3] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2011 (Konami) {28/10/10}
31. / 00. [360] Assassins Creed: Brotherhood (Ubisoft) {09/12/10}
32. / 24. [NDS] Power Pro Kun Pocket 13 (Konami) {25/11/10}
33. / 35. [NDS] Friend Collection (Nintendo) {18/06/09}
34. / 26. [NDS] Crayon Shin-Chan: Shokkugan! Densetsu o Yobu Omake Daiketsusen!! (Bandai Namco) {02/12/10}
35. / 36. [NDS] Art Academy (Nintendo) {19/06/10}
36. / 27. [PS3] Call of Duty: Black Ops (Subtitled Edition) (Square Enix) {18/11/10}
37. / 00. [PS3] Need for Speed: Hot Pursuit (Electronic Arts) {09/12/10}
38. / 38. [NDS] More! Stitch! DS Scribble Battle Through Rhythm DS (Disney Interactive) {18/11/10}
39. / 00. [WII] Karaoke Joysound Wii Super DX: Hitori de Minna de Utai Houdai! (Hudson) {09/12/10}
40. / 15. [NDS] Super Robot Wars L (Bandai Namco) {25/11/10}
41. / 00. [PSP] Pastel Chime Continue (5pb.) {09/12/10}
42. / 00. [NDS] Bakugan Battle Brawlers DS: Defenders of the Core (Sega) {09/12/10}
43. / 00. [NDS] Heart Catch PreCure! Oshare Collection (Bandai Namco) {05/08/10}
44. / 29. [PSP] God Eater: Burst (Bandai Namco) {28/10/10}
45. / 23. [WII] Naruto Shippuden: Gekitou Ninja Taisen! Special (Takara Tomy) {02/12/10}
46. / 47. [NDS] One Piece: Gigant Battle (Bandai Namco) {09/09/10}
47. / 41. [NDS] Minna to Kimi no Piramekino! (Bandai Namco) {25/11/10}
48. / 43. [NDS] Taiko Drum Master DS: Dororon! Battle With the Ghouls!! (Bandai Namco) {01/07/10}
49. / 28. [PSP] Tactics Ogre: Let Us Cling Together (Square Enix) {11/11/10}
50. / 37. [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom Unite [PSP the Best Reprint] (Capcom) {24/12/09}

00. / 00. [ALL] Weekly Software Sales (All Publishers) {06/12/10} - 2.223.541 / 57.273.193 (-32%)

NDS - 21
WII - 14
PSP - 8
PS3 - 6
360 - 1
PS2 - 0

Media Create

2009 47 {16/11/09 - 22/11/09} 00. [ALL] Weekly Software Sales (All Publishers) {16/11/09} - 754.473 / 52.927.212
2009 48 {23/11/09 - 29/11/09} 00. [ALL] Weekly Software Sales (All Publishers) {23/11/09} - 1.103.204 / 54.030.416
2009 49 {30/11/09 - 06/12/09} 00. [ALL] Weekly Software Sales (All Publishers) {30/11/09} - 2.723.462 / 56.753.878
2009 50 {07/12/09 - 13/12/09} 00. [ALL] Weekly Software Sales (All Publishers) {07/12/09} - 2.165.545 / 58.919.423
2009 51 {14/12/09 - 20/12/09} 00. [ALL] Weekly Software Sales (All Publishers) {14/12/09} - 3.945.539 / 62.864.962
2009 52 {21/12/09 - 27/12/09} 00. [ALL] Weekly Software Sales (All Publishers) {21/12/09} - 3.267.504 / 66.132.466
2009 53 {28/12/09 - 03/01/10} 00. [ALL] Weekly Software Sales (All Publishers) {28/12/09} - 2.423.932 / 68.556.398

2010 47 {22/11/10 - 28/11/10} 00. [ALL] Weekly Software Sales (All Publishers) {22/11/10} - 1.479.110 / 51.773.408
2010 48 {29/11/10 - 05/12/10} 00. [ALL] Weekly Software Sales (All Publishers) {29/11/10} - 3.276.244 / 55.049.652
2010 49 {06/12/10 - 12/12/10} 00. [ALL] Weekly Software Sales (All Publishers) {06/12/10} - 2.223.541 / 57.273.193
2010 50 {13/12/10 - 19/12/10}
2010 51 {20/12/10 - 26/12/10}
2010 52 {27/12/10 - 02/01/11}

LOCK · Dec 17, 2010

I wonder if Super Mario Galaxy 2 is over 10k. Lets hope it makes the top 20 in the next few weeks.

onken · Dec 17, 2010

Ni no Kuni did me over on the predictions, thought it would be a bit higher out the gate. Wii is really feeling that holiday bump.

Road · Dec 17, 2010

Dengeki Sales, Dec 06 - 12, 2010:

01. / 01. [PSP] Monster Hunter Portable 3rd (Capcom) - 650,983 / 2,606,222
02. / 00. [WII] Donkey Kong Country Returns (Nintendo) - 165,497 / 165,497
03. / 00. [NDS] Ni no Kuni: Shikkoku no Madoushi (Level 5) - 159,421 / 159,421
04. / 04. [WII] Mario Sports Mix (Nintendo) - 59,206 / 201,569
05. / 11. [WII] Wii Party (Nintendo) - 57,385 / 1,286,969
06. / 06. [WII] Super Mario All-Stars: Limited Edition (Nintendo) - 46,787 / 708,577
07. / 05. [NDS] Mario vs. Donkey Kong: Mini-Land Mayhem (Nintendo) - 46,017 / 104,122
08. / 02. [PS3] Tales of Graces F (Bandai Namco) - 40,888 / 265,343
09. / 12. [NDS] Pokemon Black (Pokemon) - 38,353 / 2,403,510
10. / 00. [PS3] Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood (Chunsoft) - 35,463 / 35,463
11. / 14. [NDS] Pokemon White (Pokemon) - 33,212 / 2,210,047
12. / 03. [PS3] Gran Turismo 5 (SCE) - 29,556 / 491,930
13. / 17. [WII] Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo) - 29,250 / 2,077,645
14. / 13. [NDS] Super Fossil Fighters (Nintendo) - 28,676 / 127,123
15. / 16. [NDS] Tongari Boushi to Mahou no Omise (Konami) - 26,383 / 138,766
16. / 00. [NDS] Fushigi no Dungeon: Fuurai no Shiren 5 - Fortune Tower to Unmei no Dice - 23,406 / 23,406
17. / 22. [WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) - 22,438 / ?
18. / 07. [NDS] Momotarou Dentetsu: World (Hudson) - 22,317 / 64,062
19. / 18. [WII] Kirby's Epic Yarn (Nintendo) - 21,922 / ?
20. / 20. [WII] Mario Kart Wii (Nintendo) - 21,247 / ?

Other software (first week / LTD):
-

1) Sell-through
- [PSP] Monster Hunter Portable 3rd ~95%
- [WII] Donkey Kong Country Returns ~55%
- [NDS] Ni no Kuni: Shikkoku no Madoushi ~30%

Code:

Hardware |  This Week |  Last Week |    YTD     |    LTD
------------------------------------------------------------
PSP      |    160,752 |    326,942 |  2,567,032 | 15,956,424
NDS      |    110,114 |     78,131 |  2,560,311 | 31,525,016
WII      |     78,895 |     55,171 |  1,492,932 | 11,038,368
PS3      |     47,889 |     47,796 |  1,490,107 |  5,974,805
360      |     	4,111 |      3,979 |    227,303 |  1,435,958
PS2      |     	1,996 |      1,612 |     	| 	
------------------------------------------------------------
Total    |    403,757 |    513,631 |

http://ascii.jp/elem/000/000/577/577537/
http://news.dengeki.com/elem/000/000/329/329895/

Nov 29 - Dec 05, 2010
Nov 22 - 28, 2010
Nov 15 - 21, 2010
Nov 08 - 14, 2010
Nov 01 - 07, 2010
Oct 25 - 31, 2010
Oct 18 - 24, 2010
Oct 11 - 17, 2010
Oct 04 - 10, 2010

Cosmonaut X · Dec 17, 2010

Road said:
[WII] Donkey Kong Country Returns ~55%

Yeesh - another massive shipment from Nintendo (300k, if my mental arithmetic is up to scratch) but after Kirby and MSM it looks like it will go fairly promptly.

EDIT:

Can't recall - did we ever get initial shipment/sellthrough for Epic Yarn? Would be interesting to see how close it is to selling out the first shipment, or if it already has.

cvxfreak · Dec 17, 2010

Donkey Kong Returns will have no problems selling this holiday. It may even outsell everything except MHP3 this month.

Chris1964 · Dec 17, 2010

Cosmonaut X said:
Yeesh - another massive shipment from Nintendo (300k, if my mental arithmetic is up to scratch) but after Kirby and MSM it looks like it will go fairly promptly.

EDIT:

Can't recall - did we ever get initial shipment/sellthrough for Epic Yarn? Would be interesting to see how close it is to selling out the first shipment, or if it already has.

235k for Kirby. Donkey Kong will have sold most of the initial shipment this week.

Cosmonaut X · Dec 17, 2010

cvxfreak said:
Donkey Kong Returns will have no problems selling this holiday. It may even outsell everything except MHP3 this month.

I don't doubt it, and it certainly deserves those sales.

Chris1964 said:
235k for Kirby. Donkey Kong will have sold most of the initial shipment this week.

So Kirby has gone through the first shipment and must have had a second out in the last week or two, then. 350k looks like a certainty, but I'm not sure how much further it will get - perhaps 400k?

Chris1964 · Dec 17, 2010

kirby with similar sales pattern so far.

Code:

Game 1: [GCN] Kirby Air Ride {11/07/03}
Game 2: [NDS] Kirby Canvas Curse {24/03/05}
Game 3: [WII] Kirby's Epic Yarn {14/10/10}

------------------------------------------------------------------
|    |      Game 1       |      Game 2       |      Game 3       |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
|Week|  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
|  1 |   85.453|   85.453|   72.102|   72.102|  109.253|  109.253|
|  2 |   38.391|  123.844|   35.245|  107.347|   39.491|  148.744|
|  3 |   31.490|  155.334|   18.615|  125.962|   24.363|  173.107|
|  4 |   26.452|  181.786|   13.062|  139.024|   17.687|  190.794|
|  5 |   26.603|  208.389|   13.602|  152.626|   10.835|  201.629|
|  6 |   29.641|  238.030|         |         |    8.852|  210.481|
|  7 |   12.159|  250.189|         |         |    7.914|  218.395|
|  8 |   14.894|  265.083|    4.536|  184.520|    9.267|  227.662|
|  9 |   11.449|  276.532|    4.176|  188.696|         |         |
| 10 |    8.565|  285.097|    4.048|  192.744|         |         |
| 11 |    8.445|  293.542|    4.429|  197.173|         |         |
| 12 |    7.054|  300.596|    3.924|  201.097|         |         |
| 13 |    5.408|  306.004|    3.708|  204.805|         |         |
| 14 |    4.378|  310.382|    3.600|  208.405|         |         |
| 15 |    4.539|  314.921|         |         |         |         |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
|Year|   YTD   |   LTD   |   YTD   |   LTD   |   YTD   |   LTD   |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
|  1 |  357.886|  357.886|  276.418|  276.418|         |         |
|  2 |   64.425|  422.311|   38.793|  315.211|         |         |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
| LTD|         |  422.311|         |  315.211|         |  227.662|
------------------------------------------------------------------

Takao · Dec 17, 2010

Chris1964 said:
50. / 37. [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom Unite [PSP the Best Reprint] (Capcom) {24/12/09}

Beastly. Shit is still charting years after release, and a while after the sequel has been out.

Kurosaki Ichigo · Dec 17, 2010

Prediction League (12/20-12/26)
[NDS] Hardware -
[PSP] Hardware -
[PSP] The 3rd Birthday (Square Enix) -
[PSP] AKB1/48: Idol to Koishitara (Bandai Namco) -
[WII] Hardware -
[PS3] Hardware -

Notes:
-The 3rd Birthday releases on Wednesday so it'll be on sale 5 days
-Hardware predictions are for the full week and combining all SKUs

Spiegel · Dec 17, 2010

Prediction League (12/20-12/26)
[NDS] Hardware - 190000
[PSP] Hardware - 185000
[PSP] The 3rd Birthday (Square Enix) - 240000
[PSP] AKB1/48: Idol to Koishitara (Bandai Namco) - 135000
[WII] Hardware - 145000
[PS3] Hardware - 75000

Bebpo · Dec 17, 2010

Going by amiami, Ni no kuni is already price collapsing due to the huge amount of overstock. Will be interesting to see how far it collapses. Right now it's only down to 3900yen from 6800(?)yen.

cvxfreak · Dec 17, 2010

Ni no Kuni might eventually serve as an example of the dangers of lauching a new and ambitious IP during the holidays. This contrasts with The Last Story, which is out next month.

I'm not seeing much excitement for Ni no Kuni at stores either. Actually, the DS as a whole seems so underwhelming this year.

duckroll · Dec 17, 2010

cvxfreak said:
I'm not seeing much excitement for Ni no Kuni at stores either. Actually, the DS as a whole seems so underwhelming this year.

Sounds like the same concerns I was raising a few weeks ago, and you said that it all seems to be fine and going well... why the backpeddle? :/

cvxfreak · Dec 17, 2010

duckroll said:
Sounds like the same concerns I was raising a few weeks ago, and you said that it all seems to be fine and going well... why the backpeddle? :/

Well, you clearly didn't listen to everything I forecast given that lulz-worthy Donkey Kong prediction last week. Yes, I was talking about yours last week! :lol

Ni no Kuni honestly has the recipe for success, which makes its current lukewarm reception baffling, but Jonnyram did raise some good points earlier about why the shipment was so huge. I didn't think about those factors before.

duckroll · Dec 17, 2010

cvxfreak said:
Well, you clearly didn't listen to everything I forecast given that lulz-worthy Donkey Kong prediction last week. Yes, I was talking about yours last week! :lol

Ni no Kuni honestly has the recipe for success, which makes its current lukewarm reception baffling, but Jonnyram did raise some good points earlier about why the shipment was so huge. I didn't think about those factors before.

No one disputes that Ni no Kuni has the recipe for success. I'm talking about your comments based on your observations of interest and hype at stores in Japan. My impression of the Japanese impression of Ni no Kuni based on what I can gather online has been that all the way up to launch there wasn't a ton of interest, and it was never going to be a huge break out success. Level 5 wasn't even pushing it very hard despite starting ads really early (the ads were weak).

But somehow, you disagreed. You said that the interest was there, and it was going to be fine. Now suddenly you're saying that it doesn't seem like there is an excitement after all, and that interest in DS software on a whole is low. So which is which? Why go back and forth? Were people actually excited for Ni no Kuni in stores before the launch and just decided to not buy it and are no longer interested now? Or were you simply making an incorrect guess that people were interested in the first place? That's what I'm trying to figure out here.

cvxfreak · Dec 17, 2010

duckroll said:
No one disputes that Ni no Kuni has the recipe for success. I'm talking about your comments based on your observations of interest and hype at stores in Japan. My impression of the Japanese impression of Ni no Kuni based on what I can gather online has been that all the way up to launch there wasn't a ton of interest, and it was never going to be a huge break out success. Level 5 wasn't even pushing it very hard despite starting ads really early (the ads were weak).

But somehow, you disagreed. You said that the interest was there, and it was going to be fine. Now suddenly you're saying that it doesn't seem like there is an excitement after all, and that interest in DS software on a whole is low. So which is which? Why go back and forth? Were people actually excited for Ni no Kuni in stores before the launch and just decided to not buy it and are no longer interested now? Or were you simply making an incorrect guess that people were interested in the first place? That's what I'm trying to figure out here.

It's possible to be wrong. Shocking, I know!

My observations for games post-release have nothing to do with my prior forecasts. I report what I see (or what I don't see). I could easily just stay quiet as a way of not owning up to some prediction. I'm usually very careful in letting people know that things may turn out differently. I don't care if I'm right or wrong. It's fun to discuss this and worrying so much about being right or wrong sucks the fun out of it. Who do you think I am, Michael Pachter?

duckroll · Dec 17, 2010

cvxfreak said:
It's possible to be wrong. Shocking, I know!

My observations for games post-release have nothing to do with my prior forecasts. I report what I see (or what I don't see). I could easily just stay quiet as a way of not owning up to some prediction. I'm usually very careful in letting people know that things may turn out differently. I don't care if I'm right or wrong. It's fun to discuss this and worrying so much about being right or wrong sucks the fun out of it. Who do you think I am, Michael Pachter?

I don't really care that much about being right or wrong here, rather than trying to understand the actual situation of Ni no Kuni here really. I'm just trying to get a better feel on the actual on the ground situation. I definitely appreciate what you do, and whether it turns out one way or another, it's good to at least have someone reporting what is going on in stores on a semi-regular basis.

I'm just curious in this particular example, because you were pretty much the only reliable guy I know who is in Japan who has said that Ni no Kuni would be fine, that close to launch. Was it just a gut feeling that turned out wrong, or was there actually a sign of a lot of interest in stores and general interaction with people/TV/ads/etc?

What I want to figure out is whether the game actually had a ton of buzz which did not translate into sales, or whether it was closer to the sort of vibe I was getting from what people were saying on 2ch, blogs, other people in Japan, etc. Because the vibe I got was that the game was basically going to be a very minor launch, with the only hope of selling significant big numbers being very strong word of mouth post-launch.

Obviously, I do not live in Japan, so my ability to judge the vibe is limited in that aspect. I'm curious as to whether there was actually a discrepancy, or if the title was just expected to be a success because it's Level 5 + Ghibli + DQ clone (without actually having a lot of actual hype that was visible).

cvxfreak · Dec 17, 2010

Nice post. I'll chime in later. Right now, I'm braving through the lines at Jump Festa for Andriasang. :lol

duckroll · Dec 17, 2010

cvxfreak said:
Nice post. I'll chime in later. Right now, I'm braving through the lines at Jump Festa for Andriasang. :lol

Good lord. I hope you have a jacket and comfy shoes.

Tiktaalik · Dec 18, 2010

I think the ninokuni ads were really great, though they are completely geared toward parents wondering which NDS game they should buy their kid at xmas.

Chris1964 · Dec 18, 2010

Predictions

[NDS] Hardware - 234.567
[PSP] Hardware - 210.987
[PSP] The 3rd Birthday (Square Enix) - 156.789
[PSP] AKB1/48: Idol to Koishitara (Bandai Namco) - ~~123.456~~ -> 210.987
[WII] Hardware - 178.901
[PS3] Hardware - 78.901

Code:

Game 1: [NDS] Mario Party DS {08/11/07}
Game 2: [WII] Mario Party 8 {26/07/07}
Game 3: [WII] Wii Party {08/07/10}


------------------------------------------------------------------
|    |      Game 1       |      Game 2       |      Game 3       |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
|Week|  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
|  1 |  242.195|  242.195|  282.389|  282.389|  223.595|  223.595|
|  2 |  114.868|  357.063|  147.084|  429.473|  111.075|  334.670|
|  3 |   96.598|  453.661|  114.445|  543.918|   89.689|  424.359|
|  4 |   67.344|  521.005|  115.709|  659.627|   67.745|  492.104|
|  5 |   81.460|  602.465|   49.539|  709.166|   71.333|  563.437|
|  6 |  160.115|  762.580|   42.770|  751.936|  110.537|  673.974|
|  7 |  307.901|1.070.481|   27.784|  779.720|   64.447|  738.421|
|  8 |  162.163|1.232.644|   20.933|  800.653|   56.841|  795.262|
|  9 |  208.094|1.440.738|   18.584|  819.237|   52.031|  847.293|
| 10 |   52.345|1.493.083|   15.628|  834.865|   43.060|  890.353|
| 11 |   38.031|1.531.114|   10.405|  845.270|   38.326|  928.679|
| 12 |   25.980|1.557.094|    9.488|  854.758|   42.327|  971.006|
| 13 |   19.068|1.576.162|    7.814|  862.572|   29.840|1.000.846|
| 14 |   15.765|1.591.927|    7.878|  870.450|   30.607|1.031.453|
| 15 |   14.713|1.606.640|    6.837|  877.287|   26.871|1.058.324|
| 16 |    9.791|1.616.431|    6.804|  884.091|   19.429|1.077.753|
| 17 |    9.533|1.625.964|    5.493|  889.584|   20.652|1.098.405|
| 18 |    8.544|1.634.508|    7.083|  896.667|   20.018|1.118.423|
| 19 |    8.240|1.642.748|    7.868|  904.535|   18.971|1.137.394|
| 20 |    7.943|1.650.691|   13.914|  918.449|   19.377|1.156.771|
| 21 |    8.624|1.659.315|   29.130|  947.579|   24.849|1.181.620|
| 22 |    7.826|1.667.141|   60.320|1.007.899|   34.252|1.215.872|
| 23 |    5.013|1.672.154|   46.035|1.053.934|         |         |
| 24 |    4.035|1.676.189|   68.175|1.122.109|         |         |
| 25 |    4.739|1.680.928|   16.221|1.138.330|         |         |
| 26 |   10.039|1.690.967|   15.318|1.153.648|         |         |
| 27 |   10.904|1.701.871|    9.352|1.163.000|         |         |
| 28 |    4.491|1.706.362|    7.173|1.170.173|         |         |
| 29 |    4.383|1.710.745|         |         |         |         |
| 30 |         |         |         |         |         |         |
| 31 |         |         |         |1.184.836|         |         |
| 32 |         |         |         |         |         |         |
| 33 |         |         |         |         |         |         |
| 34 |         |1.730.191|         |         |         |         |
| 35 |    3.455|1.733.646|         |         |         |         |
| 36 |         |         |         |1.205.242|         |         |
| 37 |         |         |         |         |         |         |
| 38 |         |         |         |         |         |         |
| 39 |         |         |         |         |         |         |
| 40 |    5.000|1.755.000|         |1.216.737|         |         |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
|Year|   YTD   |   LTD   |   YTD   |   LTD   |   YTD   |   LTD   |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
|  1 |1.232.644|1.232.644|1.053.934|1.053.934|         |         |
|  2 |  599.621|1.832.265|  256.832|1.310.766|         |         |
|  3 |   94.195|1.926.460|   65.984|1.376.750|         |         |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
| LTD|         |1.983.713|         |1.414.586|         |1.215.872|
------------------------------------------------------------------

Code:

Game 1: [WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii {03/12/09}
Game 2: [WII] Super Mario Galaxy {01/11/07}
Game 3: [WII] Super Mario Galaxy 2 {27/05/10}
Game 4: [WII] Super Mario All-Stars {21/10/10}

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    |      Game 1       |      Game 2       |      Game 3       |      Game 4       |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
|Week|  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
|  1 |  936.734|  936.734|  256.341|  256.341|  337.569|  337.569|  300.919|  300.919|
|  2 |  464.824|1.401.558|   78.349|  334.690|  116.153|  453.722|  102.247|  403.166|
|  3 |  570.512|1.972.070|   43.317|  378.007|   71.803|  525.525|   49.850|  453.016|
|  4 |  513.080|2.485.150|   37.484|  415.491|   49.304|  574.829|   43.685|  496.701|
|  5 |  254.494|2.740.644|   36.354|  451.845|   38.461|  613.290|   38.441|  535.142|
|  6 |  128.503|2.869.147|   48.750|  500.595|   30.470|  643.760|   40.358|  575.500|
|  7 |  133.606|3.002.753|   70.541|  571.136|   21.122|  664.882|   36.293|  611.793|
|  8 |  115.704|3.118.457|  109.029|  680.165|   15.513|  680.395|         |         |
|  9 |   89.809|3.208.266|   67.519|  747.684|   17.899|  698.294|         |         |
| 10 |   61.762|3.270.028|   62.017|  809.701|   14.057|  712.351|         |         |
| 11 |   59.213|3.329.241|   17.617|  827.318|   12.117|  724.468|         |         |
| 12 |   48.967|3.378.208|   16.643|  843.961|   16.192|  740.660|         |         |
| 13 |   41.672|3.419.880|    9.056|  853.017|   11.255|  751.915|         |         |
| 14 |   41.263|3.461.143|    7.234|  860.251|    9.119|  761.034|         |         |
| 15 |   37.521|3.498.664|    6.344|  866.595|    9.462|  770.496|         |         |
| 16 |   37.252|3.535.916|    5.868|  872.463|    7.906|  778.402|         |         |
| 17 |   51.839|3.587.755|    4.357|  876.820|    7.053|  785.455|         |         |
| 18 |   49.454|3.637.209|         |         |    8.168|  793.623|         |         |
| 19 |   38.684|3.675.893|         |         |    6.656|  800.279|         |         |
| 20 |   30.736|3.706.629|         |         |    6.534|  806.813|         |         |
| 21 |   26.092|3.732.721|         |         |    5.492|  812.305|         |         |
| 22 |   39.125|3.771.846|         |  893.713|    4.143|  816.448|         |         |
| 23 |   39.087|3.810.933|         |         |    4.211|  820.659|         |         |
| 24 |   15.597|3.826.530|         |         |    4.470|  825.129|         |         |
| 25 |   13.713|3.840.243|         |         |    4.195|  829.324|         |         |
| 26 |   12.883|3.853.126|         |         |    4.311|  833.635|         |         |
| 27 |   10.092|3.863.218|         |         |         |         |         |         |
| 28 |    9.145|3.872.363|         |  904.689|         |         |         |         |
| 29 |    7.614|3.879.977|         |         |         |         |         |         |
| 30 |    7.068|3.887.045|         |         |         |         |         |         |
| 31 |    7.311|3.894.356|         |         |         |         |         |         |
| 32 |    7.874|3.902.230|         |         |         |         |         |         |
| 33 |    6.487|3.908.717|         |         |         |         |         |         |
| 34 |    7.411|3.916.128|         |         |         |         |         |         |
| 35 |    7.330|3.923.458|         |  912.746|         |         |         |         |
| 36 |    6.513|3.929.971|         |         |         |         |         |         |
| 37 |    8.820|3.938.791|         |         |         |         |         |         |
| 38 |    5.853|3.944.644|         |         |         |         |         |         |
| 39 |    4.706|3.949.349|         |         |         |         |         |         |
| 40 |    4.128|3.953.477|         |         |         |         |         |         |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
|Year|   YTD   |   LTD   |   YTD   |   LTD   |   YTD   |   LTD   |   YTD   |   LTD   |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
|  1 |2.485.150|2.485.150|  747.684|  747.684|         |         |         |         |
|  2 |         |         |  197.422|  945.106|         |         |         |         |
|  3 |         |         |   27.218|  972.324|         |         |         |         |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
| LTD|         |4.010.517|         |  995.283|         |  833.635|         |  611.793|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Wii Party is on track to outsell Mario Party DS.

Orgen · Dec 18, 2010

Predictions

[NDS] Hardware - 226.000
[PSP] Hardware - 184.000
[PSP] The 3rd Birthday (Square Enix) - 173.000
[PSP] AKB1/48: Idol to Koishitara (Bandai Namco) - 148.000
[WII] Hardware - 169.000
[PS3] Hardware - 82.000

Chris1964 said:
Code:

[NDS] Mario Party DS {08/11/07} | 7 | 307.901 | 1.070.481 |

is this the best 7th week ever?

(besides Pokemon maybe?)

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