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Media Create Sales: July 12-18

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
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duckroll said:
Image Epoch first week comparisons:

World Destruction (2008) - 55.938 / 59,17%
7th Dragon (2009) - 79.757 / 80,07%
Arc Rise Fantasia (2009) - 25.914 / 58,67%
Last Ranker (2010) - 61.000
Added sellthrough. Last Ranker had a first shipment close to 100k.

Momotaro Railway Tag Match: Friendship - Cooperation - Winning Volume! also had a very bad first week. Hudson expected 250k from this title.
Durante said:
Thanks. I should really have said "out of all their releases listed in garaph" instead of "ever". Where is that data from?
I have a link to my database in the OP.
 

Takao

Banned
Mar 19, 2009
50,996
0
0
Toronto, Canada
Hudson is owned by Konami, a company who expects Peace Walker to do 3 million worldwide. Hudson also projected that Beyblade game to sell 160,000 units in Japan. Even though previous iterations have had legs (the first one debuted at under 20k, and got over 130k by the end of the year IIRC), I don't think this one will.
 
Apr 17, 2005
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Hudson isn't really good at predicting...

http://www.andriasang.com/e/blog/2009/05/20/hudson_sneak_peak_at_2009/
In terms of specific titles, the company expects Deca Sporta 2 to be its big title for the year, selling 1.47 million units, split 200,000 for Japan, 600,000 for North America, and 670,000 for Europe. It expects 420,000 units for Hataraku Bito (Hard Working People), selling 250,000 in North Amercia and 170,000 additional units in Europe. Wii Momotaro Dentetsu is expected to sell 280,000 units just in Japan. Wii Kororinpa 2 (Marble Saga) is expected to sell 150,000 worldwide, split 70,000 for Europe, 50,000 for Japan, and 30,000 for North America.
They got Momotaro Wii pretty right though, its over 220k despite a 44k first week (this series has really good legs usually but I doubt that will help the PSP title, maybe to get to 100k but 250k no chance).

But Deca Sporta 2...
Expected 200,000 -> Shipped first day 80,000 -> Sold first day 2,400 :lol -> Sold first week 8,600 -> Current LTD 50k and going up till it clears that 80k first shipment

Kororinpa 2 doing 50k was also quite the big mouth, first week was 640. No number missing yeah.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
They got Momotaro Wii pretty right though, its over 220k despite a 44k first week (this series has really good legs usually but I doubt that will help the PSP title, maybe to get to 100k but 250k no chance).

But Deca Sporta 2...
Expected 200,000 -> Shipped first day 80,000 -> Sold first day 2,400 :lol -> Sold first week 8,600 -> Current LTD 50k and going up till it clears that 80k first shipment

Kororinpa 2 doing 50k was also quite the big mouth, first week was 640. No number missing yeah.
Famitsu (from 2010 1st half)
[WII] Momotaro Railway 2010: Sengoku Ishin no Hero Daishuugou! no Maki (Hudson) - 43.548 / 251.404

Media Create (from 2009 top 1000)
[WII] Deca Sports 2 (Hudson) - 9.051 / 75.599

Budget re-release came out last week so it must have sold the initial shipment

Kororinpa 2 didn't chart at Media Create 2009 top 1000 which means LTD<5.508

I expect many bitter tears from Konami and Capcom at their quarter reports when they talk about the performance of Peace Walker and Lost Planet 2.
 

Spiegel

Member
Feb 20, 2007
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970
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Looks like S-E expected more from DQ:MBRV. At least that's what Dengeki says:

DQ:MBRV - 135k (40% sell-through)

http://ascii.jp/elem/000/000/539/539943/

Fire Embled had a 70% sell-through (137k units sold)

Too bad they don't share more percentages because I'm pretty sure Momotaro Railway and Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2010 PSP were also overshipped.
 

Shirokun

Member
Jan 4, 2007
1,281
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0
mutsu said:
What are the chances of a bargain bin copy by 5th August (when I go to Japan)? :D
Hard to say. While Dragon Quest tends to be pretty front-loaded, that doesn't necessarily mean this won't have any legs(it probably won't). But I would expect at least another two weeks or so before such a thing is even considered.
 

onken

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You know I really think it's possible that 3DS isn't going to be as big as the DS. Whenever I turn on the TV, all I see is constant ads for mobile phone games. Plus I think the upgrade incentive is a lot less this time.

ENGAGE NDF REPELLENT - I'm not saying it definitely won't be as bigger than the DS, but there's a possibility it won't.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
May 21, 2006
17,232
3
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schuelma said:
3DS can't come soon enough. This is so boring.
It's been all downhill since the week that Seaman 2 was #1. That was around the point that the DSL finally returned to sensible levels and the Wii was first stalling and I don't think I've found MC stuff consistently exciting since. That was also around when the MC threads first started shrinking from the highs they achieved in the earlier DS days.

I don't expect stuff to get interesting again for me personally until either a) A new hardware competitor is announced; if the 3DS does really well, it's not going to be spicy. If it does merely okay, it's not going to be spicy either. or b) A really consistently interesting software lineup comes out. Maybe the 3DS will help spur this, but nothing so far really suggests it will. I mean, quite a few games interest me, but it'll be at least a year after launch before the slate fills out enough to sort of consistently have several games launch every week.
 
onken said:
You know I really think it's possible that 3DS isn't going to be as big as the DS. Whenever I turn on the TV, all I see is constant ads for mobile phone games. Plus I think the upgrade incentive is a lot less this time.

ENGAGE NDF REPELLENT - I'm not saying it definitely won't be as bigger than the DS, but there's a possibility it won't.
I think it really depends on whether they can win over the PSP audience while keeping the DS audience.
 

onken

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Stumpokapow said:
I don't expect stuff to get interesting again for me personally until either a) A new hardware competitor is announced; if the 3DS does really well, it's not going to be spicy. If it does merely okay, it's not going to be spicy either. .
I agree, although a lot of people seem perfectly content to cheer on a single dominant platform, I don't find much fun in a one-horse race.

Nirolak said:
I think it really depends on whether they can win over the PSP audience while keeping the DS audience.
That's true, but as I say I think competition from mobile phones is going to play a crucial role this time.
 

Bentendo

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schuelma said:
3DS can't come soon enough. This is so boring.
I can't WAIT to hear the launch lineup of the 3DS, specifically for this reason. :lol

That's obviously not the only reason, but I am excited to see what takes the number 1 spot.
 

Gaborn

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Apr 6, 2007
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onken said:
You know I really think it's possible that 3DS isn't going to be as big as the DS. Whenever I turn on the TV, all I see is constant ads for mobile phone games. Plus I think the upgrade incentive is a lot less this time.

ENGAGE NDF REPELLENT - I'm not saying it definitely won't be as bigger than the DS, but there's a possibility it won't.
Haven't we been through this before? I mean, it's possible you're right. I think a lot depends on Nintendo's price point. If they keep it under $200 (or the equivalent in Yen) it's going to do well. If it's, say, $220 or equivalent it might have problems, anything higher it would be a struggle to say the least.

Beyond that a new DS iteration has the potential to be treated like new PlayStation iterations were treated in the past. Look at the DS, when it was first shown there was a lot of buzz, but a lot of doubt. I don't think ANYONE saw it becoming the beast it has been. Look at the Wii. People liked the concept of motion controls, but doubted a relatively modest increase in power could fend of it's flashier competitors.

For this generation, in this situation, the 3DS has a lot of analogies to the PS2 despite the fact we're discussing handhelds vs consoles. The PS2 got a significant head start on either the GameCube or Xbox (Dreamcast was a last gasp for Sega, brilliant, but I'm not going to include it in this discussion). It followed up on the success of the original PlayStation, itself a completely dominant beast. The PS2 also had developer support from virtually every corner of the industry, everyone knew it was THE dominant system so everyone wanted to develop for it and sunk huge resources into it.

Can anyone claim plausibly barring a major price barrier (similar to what crippled the PS3 crucially early on) that history will not follow a similar track with the 3DS? Are many 3rd party developers refusing to jump on board the 3DS bandwagon?
 

BishopLamont

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Apr 22, 2007
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Gaborn said:
Haven't we been through this before? I mean, it's possible you're right. I think a lot depends on Nintendo's price point. If they keep it under $200 (or the equivalent in Yen) it's going to do well. If it's, say, $220 or equivalent it might have problems, anything higher it would be a struggle to say the least.

Beyond that a new DS iteration has the potential to be treated like new PlayStation iterations were treated in the past. Look at the DS, when it was first shown there was a lot of buzz, but a lot of doubt. I don't think ANYONE saw it becoming the beast it has been. Look at the Wii. People liked the concept of motion controls, but doubted a relatively modest increase in power could fend of it's flashier competitors.

For this generation, in this situation, the 3DS has a lot of analogies to the PS2 despite the fact we're discussing handhelds vs consoles. The PS2 got a significant head start on either the GameCube or Xbox (Dreamcast was a last gasp for Sega, brilliant, but I'm not going to include it in this discussion). It followed up on the success of the original PlayStation, itself a completely dominant beast. The PS2 also had developer support from virtually every corner of the industry, everyone knew it was THE dominant system so everyone wanted to develop for it and sunk huge resources into it.

Can anyone claim plausibly barring a major price barrier (similar to what crippled the PS3 crucially early on) that history will not follow a similar track with the 3DS? Are many 3rd party developers refusing to jump on board the 3DS bandwagon?
For a system to be PS2 successful it needs the backing of western developers. Second rate handheld games is not going to cut it.
 

Stumpokapow

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May 21, 2006
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BishopLamont said:
For a system to be PS2 successful it needs the backing of western developers. Second rate handheld games is not going to cut it.
... the DS was significantly more successful than the PS2.
 

onken

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Gaborn said:
Just the feeling that I get is that people are moving away from the concept of a separate handheld for gaming. I was on a rammed train yesterday, know how many DS/PSPs I saw? None, not a single one. Know how many people I saw fucking about with their mobile? EVERYONE. As I say, ads for mobile phones games run on TV all the time, they're a force to be reckoned with.
 
onken said:
That's true, but as I say I think competition from mobile phones is going to play a crucial role this time.
Opiate said:
I think he's saying that "keeping the DS audience" is going to be extremely difficult in the face of increasing competition. I agree with him.
That's a fair point.

Thinking about it, Nintendo should probably focus the vast majority of their resources on trying to retain their casual audience.

I mean, let's face it, Nintendo doesn't make games that appeal to the PSP audience, and they probably never will. However, third parties so far seem more than happy to try and fill the gap. And on the other hand, third parties have still largely been unable to appeal to the casual gamer, so that is a very large audience Nintendo will have to try and carry itself.

Out of curiosity, what kinds of games have really been taking off with casual gamers on mobile phones? I'm wondering what kind of competition Nintendo is facing from that arena.
 

Gaborn

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BishopLamont said:
For a system to be PS2 successful it needs the backing of western developers. Second rate handheld games is not going to cut it.
Are you suggesting western developers won't be on board? Although I'm not necessarily saying that the 3DS will do equivalent numbers to the PS2, just that conditions for the 3DS's success are very similar if not identical to the PS2's sucess. Honestly, the PSP2 is probably a year or more away, and by that time the second generation of 3DS software is going to be out with an established userbase of some size. Not having direct current competition for a long time and being the follow up to the 2nd best selling system in history (behind only the PS2) has to make you fairly optimistic. If you're a developer why WOULDN'T you jump on board?

Stump - In Japan the DS was significantly more successful. Wikipedia at least as DS #2 to PS2 worldwide.
 
Gaborn said:
Are you suggesting western developers won't be on board? Although I'm not necessarily saying that the 3DS will do equivalent numbers to the PS2, just that conditions for the 3DS's success are very similar if not identical to the PS2's sucess. Honestly, the PSP2 is probably a year or more away, and by that time the second generation of 3DS software is going to be out with an established userbase of some size. Not having direct current competition for a long time and being the follow up to the 2nd best selling system in history (behind only the PS2) has to make you fairly optimistic. If you're a developer why WOULDN'T you jump on board?
I guess this depends what you mean by "on board".

Will they all be making casual titles for the system? Absolutely.

However, I'm not sure if they will seriously attempt core games on the system, which is really the only Western audience that didn't buy a DS.
 
Nov 17, 2006
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onken said:
I agree, although a lot of people seem perfectly content to cheer on a single dominant platform, I don't find much fun in a one-horse race.



That's true, but as I say I think competition from mobile phones is going to play a crucial role this time.
I dunno. There were a lot of Mobile phone game ads back when the DS first started rolling too. I don't think the mobile gaming market is appreciably bigger in Japan than it was five years ago. Things proceeded very differently here compared to the rest of the world.
 

Gaborn

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Apr 6, 2007
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Nirolak said:
I guess this depends what you mean by "on board".

Will they all be making casual titles for the system? Absolutely.

However, I'm not sure if they will seriously attempt core games on the system, which is really the only Western audience that didn't buy a DS.
While I think as you suggest here the DS doesn't "need" core gamers by that definition, it DEFINITELY attracted gamers from across the board with all interests and with a huge variety of games. I think we can expect something similar with the 3DS, and I'd say that people in the US have embraced the DS at all age levels, INCLUDING the core demographic.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
May 21, 2006
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Gaborn said:
Stump - In Japan the DS was significantly more successful. Wikipedia at least as DS #2 to PS2 worldwide.
In Japan, the DS is significantly more successful. That's the subject of the thread. But if we want to talk worldwide, it's just significantly more successful "so far" and whether it passes the PS2 in the end or not will depend on how long Nintendo keeps producing them.
 

Gaborn

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Stumpokapow said:
In Japan, the DS is significantly more successful. That's the subject of the thread. But if we want to talk worldwide, it's just significantly more successful "so far" and whether it passes the PS2 in the end or not will depend on how long Nintendo keeps producing them.
Oh, I completely agree, I was just stating what I assumed they were referring to. I do think though that when we're talking about a system's success it's hard to only focus on one market. I mean, the 360 is a flop in Japan (though of course more successful by a huge margin than the original Xbox) but that doesn't really tell it's story. So I expected any conversation about the 3DS to be couched to some extent in terms of worldwide success rather than just Japanese success.
 
Gaborn said:
While I think as you suggest here the DS doesn't "need" core gamers by that definition, it DEFINITELY attracted gamers from across the board with all interests and with a huge variety of games. I think we can expect something similar with the 3DS, and I'd say that people in the US have embraced the DS at all age levels, INCLUDING the core demographic.
While it's true the the DS definitely attracted some core gamers, it didn't do so en masse, and more importantly, they didn't go out and buy anywhere near the amount of games they buy on the 360 and PS3.

While core gamers are a relatively small audience, they do spend a ton of money on games, and thus represent a very large growth opportunity from a financial perspective.

I feel that Nintendo has been very clear that they want the PSP audience in Japan and the core gamer audience in the West. The odds of getting the Japanese PSP audience are looking very good right now, however, the Western core gamer audience is currently looking like a very uphill battle.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
May 21, 2006
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Nirolak said:
While it's true the the DS definitely attracted some core gamers, it didn't do so en masse, and more importantly, they didn't go out and buy anywhere near the amount of games they buy on the 360 and PS3.
This relates more to the fact that handhelds tend to be individual purchases while consoles tend to be household purchases. As long as the number of gamers per household is >1, that'll show up in tie ratio. It's why every single handheld ever has had a lower tie ratio.
 

Gaborn

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Nirolak said:
While it's true the the DS definitely attracted some core gamers, it didn't do so en masse, and more importantly, they didn't go out and buy anywhere near the amount of games they buy on the 360 and PS3.

While core gamers are a relatively small audience, they do spend a ton of money on games, and thus represent a very large growth opportunity from a financial perspective.

I feel that Nintendo has been very clear that they want the PSP audience in Japan and the core gamer audience in the West. The odds of getting the Japanese PSP audience are looking very good right now, however, the Western core gamer audience is currently looking like a very uphill battle.
I think this is pessimistic. The western core gamer is, for the most part, a techie, always looking for the latest, greatest, slickest, newest, cutting edge technology. Autostereoscopy certainly qualifies on that count at this point. Where else at the moment can you get that tech for gaming? The core gamer has been skeptical of Nintendo for years, first it was the perception of Nintendo as "Kiddy" then, more recently as "casual" but the 3DS really can't be characterized in this way. Another advantage Nintendo has with the 3DS is gamers are going to know about it and follow it closely, moreso than the casual audience. They're going to read impressions from everywhere and follow the details. So far just about everything I've heard has been glowing, if that continues I think the Core will jump on board.
 
Stumpokapow said:
This relates more to the fact that handhelds tend to be individual purchases while consoles tend to be household purchases. As long as the number of gamers per household is >1, that'll show up in tie ratio. It's why every single handheld ever has had a lower tie ratio.
While this is true, even on traditionally long tail platforms like XBLA and the Wii, we still tend to see core games have an accentuated front load.

There are really only a few games we tend to see with that front load on the DS. Pokemon has one, Mario & Luigi 3 had one, and GTA: Chinatown Wars had one, but as a whole we're not seeing a the types of games that traditionally sell to Western core gamers take off on the platform. Almost all the games that seem to sell to them are ones with an extremely broad appeal like Mario Kart, NSMB, and Pokemon while the kinds of niche games you would except to at least do alright on other platforms tend to remain incredibly dead.

I'm by no means denying that core gamers own the system, however, they functionally seem to act like a multiplier to casual gamer friendly titles as opposed to actually supporting their traditional markets on the platform.

Gaborn said:
I think this is pessimistic. The western core gamer is, for the most part, a techie, always looking for the latest, greatest, slickest, newest, cutting edge technology. Autostereoscopy certainly qualifies on that count at this point. Where else at the moment can you get that tech for gaming? The core gamer has been skeptical of Nintendo for years, first it was the perception of Nintendo as "Kiddy" then, more recently as "casual" but the 3DS really can't be characterized in this way. Another advantage Nintendo has with the 3DS is gamers are going to know about it and follow it closely, moreso than the casual audience. They're going to read impressions from everywhere and follow the details. So far just about everything I've heard has been glowing, if that continues I think the Core will jump on board.
Core gamers have shown time and time again though that they're ultimately driven by content.

Unless the content they want shows up on the platform, I can't see much more core success for the system than the DS had.
 
onken said:
Maybe I'm just been noticing the mobile ads more lately but as I said, I see a lot less handhelds than I used to.
I think this might have a lot to do with the lack of new multiplayer focused games on the systems.

Unless you're still playing games released over nine months ago or are enthralled by Monster Hunter and Pokemon derivatives, there hasn't been much to play recently that you wouldn't be beat in a week or two tops.
 

Vic

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Mar 2, 2006
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Nirolak said:
While it's true the the DS definitely attracted some core gamers, it didn't do so en masse, and more importantly, they didn't go out and buy anywhere near the amount of games they buy on the 360 and PS3.

While core gamers are a relatively small audience, they do spend a ton of money on games, and thus represent a very large growth opportunity from a financial perspective.

I feel that Nintendo has been very clear that they want the PSP audience in Japan and the core gamer audience in the West. The odds of getting the Japanese PSP audience are looking very good right now, however, the Western core gamer audience is currently looking like a very uphill battle.
Your equation that 'core gamer' = '360/PS3 users' is wrong. The term 'core gamers' could be translated to regular customers and there's plenty of them on the DS & Wii. I really don't see how the 3DS not attracting the HD consoles main users will be a big issue to the console's success.
 
Vic said:
Your equation that 'core gamer' = '360/PS3 users' is wrong. The term 'core gamers' could be translated to regular customers and there's plenty of them on the DS & Wii. I really don't see how the 3DS not attracting the HD consoles main users will be a big issue to the console's success.
I never said it would be an issue for the console's success.

I said it would be an issue for it being even more successful than the tremendously successful DS.

There's a very, very large difference there.

If they're not the new audience Nintendo is attracting, what is the audience that skipped the DS but will be won over in large enough numbers by the 3DS to make a major sales impact?
 
Nov 17, 2006
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onken said:
Maybe I'm just been noticing the mobile ads more lately but as I said, I see a lot less handhelds than I used to.

Hmm really not sure about that.
Well, the problem is we're both talking with anecdotes here. I went to Shibuya the other day and saw people using DSLs and DSis everywhere, even on the streets. I mean, sure, it's not like it was when DQ9 came out or anything, but that just makes sense.

The only reason I think that the mobile game market hasn't really increased in size is that it was pretty big five years ago already and we haven't seen an increase in developer support. If anything, we've seen a decrease.

I think for the short term, the 3DS actually has less competition than the DS did, since Sony is sitting out for now. On the other hand, the 3DS has to compete with its dad in a way the DS never had to.
 

freddy

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Jun 7, 2007
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Wake me up when the mobile phone games do actually become a huge threat because no offence but that line of reasoning has been going on a long time. I think I'll be hearing of the vast unstoppable shadow approaching for a couple more years at least.
 

onken

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Segata Sanshiro said:
Well, the problem is we're both talking with anecdotes here. I went to Shibuya the other day and saw people using DSLs and DSis everywhere, even on the streets. I mean, sure, it's not like it was when DQ9 came out or anything, but that just makes sense.

The only reason I think that the mobile game market hasn't really increased in size is that it was pretty big five years ago already and we haven't seen an increase in developer support. If anything, we've seen a decrease.

I think for the short term, the 3DS actually has less competition than the DS did, since Sony is sitting out for now. On the other hand, the 3DS has to compete with its dad in a way the DS never had to.
Yeah that was my other point, I think it may be quite a tough sell over the original DS. The upgrade incentive is better graphics and 3D, I don't either have much mass appeal. On top of that, regular DS/DSi games will get cheaper when the 3DS hits, making it an even more appealing.

Anyway, the 3DS will sell very well I'm sure, but people expecting it to destroy the DS sales records may well be in for a surprise.
 
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freddy said:
Wake me up when the mobile phone games do actually become a huge threat because no offence but that line of reasoning has been going on a long time. I think I'll be hearing of the vast unstoppable shadow approaching for a couple more years at least.
Oh, I think they are certainly a competitor, and in North America and Europe they've become far more worthy of consideration over the last five years, but Japan hit the mobile gaming stride a lot earlier than the rest of the world. I don't think things have changed much here in the last five years, especially with iPhone failing to be the phenomenon in Japan that it's been in the rest of the world.
 

onken

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Segata Sanshiro said:
Oh, I think they are certainly a competitor, and in North America and Europe they've become far more worthy of consideration over the last five years, but Japan hit the mobile gaming stride a lot earlier than the rest of the world. I don't think things have changed much here in the last five years, especially with iPhone failing to be the phenomenon in Japan that it's been in the rest of the world.
That may change though if they ever manage to prize exclusivity from Softbank.

freddy said:
Wake me up when the mobile phone games do actually become a huge threat because no offence but that line of reasoning has been going on a long time. I think I'll be hearing of the vast unstoppable shadow approaching for a couple more years at least.
Yeah have you seen appstore growth lately?
 
onken said:
Yeah that was my other point, I think it may be quite a tough sell over the original DS. The upgrade incentive is better graphics and 3D, I don't either have much mass appeal. On top of that, regular DS/DSi games will get cheaper when the 3DS hits, making it an even more appealing.
They other thing that's supposed to be a large incentive is greatly improved online capabilities.

However, they haven't really done a good job marketing that aspect so far.
 
Segata Sanshiro said:
Japan isn't going to give a fuck about the online capabilities.
I know they don't do a lot of online gaming, but aren't mobile devices very popular for using the internet in Japan?

However, I guess the odds of the 3DS working better for that than a phone aren't great.

NTT DoCoMo did say they were in discussion with gaming handheld companies over 3G integration though: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703636404575352681516157268.html

WSJ said:
TOKYO—Japanese wireless carrier NTT DoCoMo Inc. is in talks with videogame-device makers about adding 3G network connections to the next generation of hand-held consoles in a push to expand connected-game play.

"Videogame makers know that in order for portable game machines to take the next step forward, they need wireless communication," NTT DoCoMo President Ryuji Yamada said in an interview Wednesday. "We are discussing this with various players."

Mr. Yamada declined to identify the specific companies.
I doubt this would be a standard feature, but it sounds like at least one company is thinking about making 3G version of their device.
 

freddy

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Jun 7, 2007
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onken said:
That may change though if they ever manage to prize exclusivity from Softbank.



Yeah have you seen appstore growth lately?
The appstore is not all games. I'm not saying games won't ever be a threat on mobile phones but neither do I believe that everyone wants to play mobile phone games and that they will take over the gaming market either. There's a lot of water to flow under the bridge before that happens even if I'm wrong.