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Media Create Sales: Nov 16-22, 2009

Culex

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I may have missed it, but anyone know what the initial shipments will be for FF13 and NSMBW?
 

schuelma

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Feb 11, 2007
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Dragona Akehi said:
Is there anything wrong with Taiko 2 that would cause it to sell so poorly?

swerve was saying the first one did such a great job that the expansion wasn't necessary but they definitely didn't have a problem milking the franchise on PS2.
 

Parl

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Sep 15, 2006
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Dragona Akehi said:
Is there anything wrong with Taiko 2 that would cause it to sell so poorly?
The usual trend for poor selling sequels on Wii is ones that don't offer much of a difference from the previous one. The big thing being content, how much new experience can be gained from the new iteration. I have no idea about Taiko 2 though.
 

Dragona Akehi

Retired
Jun 5, 2004
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schuelma said:
swerve was saying the first one did such a great job that the expansion wasn't necessary but they definitely didn't have a problem milking the franchise on PS2.
Is it really like an expansion pack then? I'm guessing full price...

But still, considering how well received the first game was, I'm really actually surprised this one has done so poorly. Is there no advertisement backing on this one?
 

Elios83

Member
Jun 30, 2004
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TheRagnCajun said:
Interested to see next week's Wii numbers...

Why next week?
Isn't NSMB hitting next week so we won't get those number for two weeks?
Next week we should have first day sales numbers for super mario though.
 

kay

Member
Jun 29, 2007
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donny2112 said:
I think DQS (ULTIMATE) will probably do 20K or so.
Better take a 0 off of that prediction as it has been available below its new price for over 2 years...

Oh, look at this. Chris1964's genius status is at risk if the Wii doesn't pick up the pace a little.
Current totals:
PS3: 585020
Wii: 309875

So who is going to win this, Chris1964 or Opiate?
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Feb 11, 2007
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Dragona Akehi said:
Is it really like an expansion pack then? I'm guessing full price...

I'm not qualified to judge the content, but there were 2 SKU's- the drum pack in for 7,890 yen and a standalone for 5,040 yen.

Does seem a bit steep
 

Parl

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Sep 15, 2006
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Nirolak said:
I wonder if people just decided that they had their fill with Taiko 1.

I mean, the reason Guitar Hero and Rock Band died in the West wasn't that they became bad games, it's just that people decided they had enough of them.
Also, hasn't Taiko been a declining IP?
 

schuelma

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Feb 11, 2007
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Elios83 said:
Why next week?
Isn't NSMB hitting next week so we won't get those number for two weeks?
Next week we should have first day sales numbers for super mario though.

Next week will be interesting just to see what Wii numbers do a week before NSMB Wii and with the game presumably being advertised like crazy. I would expect at the very least another modest bump.


kay said:
So who is going to win this, Chris1964 or Opiate?

Yeah I'd say the odds are very very good that Opiate wins that one.


Parl said:
Also, hasn't Taiko been a declining IP?

I think the PS2 versions had heavily declined but the 2 DS games had done very well and the first one on Wii was at 600K months ago.
 

Parl

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schuelma said:
I think the PS2 versions had heavily declined but the 2 DS games had done very well and the first one on Wii was at 600K months ago.
As these are initial sales, it'd be the more enthusiastic customers (not specifically big fans of the series, just clued up on what Taiko 2 delivers), the ones who know more about the new release, and if there is a lack of new content, or it's like an expansion, these customers will know about it, and would create low opening numbers by some deciding not to buy it so hastily.

But the legs could be okay, but poor word of mouth shortens legs, so even with that, I don't expect it to sell like the first one if the reason for low opening sales is a game with low perceived value.

As the first one did really well, this can not simply be placed as part of the games-without-a-nintendo-logo-don't-sell hypothesis.
 

schuelma

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Parl said:
As the first one did really well, this can not simply be placed as part of the games-without-a-nintendo-logo-don't-sell hypothesis.

Agreed, though I do think there is some data to support the Wii audience doesn't usually buy yearly upgrades argument.
 

pseudocaesar

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Dec 4, 2008
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Parl said:
Let's not get things out of perspective, Nintendo is the only one out of the 3 running a successful business out of Japan with home consoles. The other two are eating into money.

This YTD watch, with them being on par, hides the huge difference in the success of each of the two business operations. One is pretty successful, one is an abysmal failure.
Well yeh, the Wii is fucked in Japan.
 

Parl

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schuelma said:
Agreed, though I do think there is some data to support the Wii audience doesn't usually buy yearly upgrades argument.
Yeah, I agree, though that seems apparent primarily when the content isn't much different. Guitar Hero declined slower on Wii than 360, for instance, despite this trend.

Something like Madden is going to be different though.

pseudocaesar said:
Well yeh, the Wii is fucked in Japan.
You've taken it way out of context. In the real world, not on GAF, SCE is still unsuccessful, still making a loss on the PS3 business. Despite Wii hardware sales being on par with PS3 at the moment in Japan, the hardware makes a big profit, the software sales are much higher than PS3's, and Nintendo gets a bigger cut of that software down to being by far the strongest investor of software on the Wii platform, and takes a bigger share per title.

In unit sales, Wii went from wildly successful in Japan, to modest sales. PS3 went from abysmal failure to modest sales.

In the context I was replying to, about Nintendo packing their bags, they're the one with least to worry about from a business perspective. They're the only ones in the black. The others have an unsustainable business plan (unless you consider MS's willing to continue making large losses each generation until Sony decide they can't afford another PS3), a business plan that is an abysmal failure.
 

schuelma

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Parl said:
Yeah, I agree, though that seems apparent primarily when the content isn't much different. Guitar Hero declined slower on Wii than 360, for instance, despite this trend.

Something like Madden is going to be different though.
I'm just talking about Japan..Winning Eleven, Power Pro, Family Ski, and now Taiko have declined year to year.
 

kay

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Don't be surprised at L4D2, the first one was not a simultaneous release (the Windows version was though) and when that happens people just get the Asian version instead and that isn't counted. This probably happened with quite a few shooter games lately. Even if you knew very basic English you could have fun with L4D.
 

Parl

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schuelma said:
I'm just talking about Japan..Winning Eleven, Power Pro, Family Ski, and now Taiko have declined year to year.
That could at least partially be down to declining software sales overall. Or maybe I got that the wrong way around, yeah I think I have.

I think many Wii users were alienated by the software being released, sometime last year, a lack of new compelling software, and Nintendo going the wrong direction with Wii Music and Animal Crossing, and the games that would sell are less likely to be more-of-the-same because of that.
 

donny2112

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Guys, Nintendo just needs to wrap up its Wii "test" (which succeeded as long as they were playing the game), and come out with their real next system. Worrying about what buyers did/didn't buy doesn't really matter for the Wii, at this point. It's basically a lost cause in Japan. No, PS3 isn't in "good" shape, either, but it's not about the competition.
 

schuelma

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donny2112 said:
Guys, Nintendo just needs to wrap up its Wii "test" (which succeeded as long as they were playing the game), and come out with their real next system. Worrying about what buyers did/didn't buy doesn't really matter for the Wii, at this point. It's basically a lost cause in Japan. No, PS3 isn't in "good" shape, either, but it's not about the competition.

Wait, serious post?
 

Dragona Akehi

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Yeah donny, I can't believe you think that. While my schtik of "Nintendo fucked the Wii in Japan" is true, it's still doing fantastic outside of Japan. Why on earth would Nintendo stop the gravy train early, after only one price drop?
 

donny2112

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schuelma said:
Wait, serious post?
I think so. I think Nintendo probably isn't going to try hard enough to turn the Wii around in Japan, so it's probably better to cut their losses profits and start a new generation with a console that will actually be supported. Did you see that the Wii had the fewest number of third-party games released in Japan this year from my database? I've harped on how stupid third-parties are in Japan this entire year, but that's still pushing the heights of stupidity for third-parties. While it probably won't come out before 2011, maybe Nintendo will push it up for an earlier launch in Japan. I'm sure Square-Enix won't mind moving DQX to the DS/DSi/DS2.

Dragona Akehi said:
it's still doing fantastic outside of Japan.
If there was a way to launch a new console just in Japan, ... :lol

Dragona Akehi said:
Why on earth would Nintendo stop the gravy train early, after only one price drop?
Push the gravy train harder?

Outside of Japan, it is not needed now but there are still warning signs, in my opinion. I don't think it could get as bad as in Japan outside Japan in the next two years with reasonable price drops, but hasn't the spiel been that Nintendo shouldn't be satisfied with "good enough?" If they had a trade-in/up program for a new console at a discount, it could work. Not mess over current customers while still offering an olive branch to the rest of the industry.
 

Dragona Akehi

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donny2112 said:
Outside of Japan, it is not needed now but there are still warning signs, in my opinion. I don't think it could get as bad as in Japan (i.e. selling PS3 levels) outside Japan in the next two years with reasonable price drops, but hasn't the spiel been that Nintendo shouldn't be satisfied with "good enough?" If they had a trade-in/up program for a new console at a discount, it could work. Not mess over current customers while still offering an olive branch to the rest of the industry.
OK now I know you're crazy. Can you even imagine the monstrosity of a programme like that? Seriously? Even if the "trade-in" was to put your VC and Wiiware purchases on the Wii2 or whatever, it would be nearly impossible to do so. There are over what? 50 million Wiis in the wild? Like Nintendo would ever take a loss-leader stance ever again.

I mean, the only way I could possibly see Nintendo cutting the legs off the Wii is if they've already shopped around to third parties and been PROMISED day one support with games if they released new hardware. Like FFXIII international edition etc., and even THEN I'd find it tough to swallow.
 

Fredescu

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donny2112 said:
a console that will actually be supported.
I don't know how much say Miyamoto has in hardware design, but this article made me wonder whether Nintendo will bother making a machine on par with their competitors next time around: http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/25700/Miyamoto_Talks_Hardware_Futures_More_Compact_More_Cost_Efficient_For_Nintendo.php

"I think it would be likely that we would try to make that same functionality perhaps more compact and perhaps even more cost-efficient."
 

schuelma

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donny2112 said:
I think so. I think Nintendo probably isn't going to try hard enough to turn the Wii around in Japan, so it's probably better to cut their losses profits and start a new generation with a console that will actually be supported. Did you see that the Wii had the fewest number of third-party games released in Japan this year from my database? I've harped on how stupid third-parties are in Japan this entire year, but that's still pushing the heights of stupidity for third-parties.

.

I don't think the Wii was ever going to come back from this year in Japan based on 3rd party support. If it does recover, it will be because of Nintendo's own output. I agree that third party support is clearly not going to improve..but it seems rather shortsighted for Nintendo to just give up on the console based on third party lack of efforts, especially when its unclear how much wooing they did in the first place.

I would add that if in your hypothetical Nintendo's goal is to gain 3rd party support in Japan..why not just try really hard with the current system that still has a substantial userbase? Wouldn't it be simpler to start working harder to get 3rd party support than go through an entire new system launch?
 

donny2112

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Dragona Akehi said:
OK now I know you're crazy. Can you even imagine the monstrosity of a programme like that?
Converter box coupon program on steroids.

Dragona Akehi said:
Like Nintendo would ever take a loss-leader stance ever again.
Drop Wii to $150 to clear stock. Offer $50 credit towards purchase of Wii 2 and transferral of DLC to new system to trade-in your Wii. A new system could be $250 ($200 with Wii trade-in), at this point, and not be sold at a loss. Also, I don't think Nintendo's ever been a loss-leader.

Dragona Akehi said:
I mean, the only way I could possibly see Nintendo cutting the legs off the Wii is if they've already shopped around to third parties and been PROMISED day one support with games if they released new hardware. Like FFXIII international edition etc., and even THEN I'd find it tough to swallow.
It's not like it's going to happen. The main reason I brought it up is that I don't think Nintendo has the gumption to do what is necessary to turn the Wii around in Japan. If they don't have the will for that, why would they have the will to push out a new system so quickly?
 

pseudocaesar

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Parl said:
You've taken it way out of context. In the real world, not on GAF, SCE is still unsuccessful, still making a loss on the PS3 business. Despite Wii hardware sales being on par with PS3 at the moment in Japan, the hardware makes a big profit, the software sales are much higher than PS3's, and Nintendo gets a bigger cut of that software down to being by far the strongest investor of software on the Wii platform, and takes a bigger share per title.

In unit sales, Wii went from wildly successful in Japan, to modest sales. PS3 went from abysmal failure to modest sales.

In the context I was replying to, about Nintendo packing their bags, they're the one with least to worry about from a business perspective. They're the only ones in the black. The others have an unsustainable business plan (unless you consider MS's willing to continue making large losses each generation until Sony decide they can't afford another PS3), a business plan that is an abysmal failure.
You don't come in to MC threads very often huh.
 

donny2112

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schuelma said:
Wouldn't it be simpler to start working harder to get 3rd party support than go through an entire new system launch?
You'd think! Hasn't seemed to work out, so far, though.

Personally, I don't really care a great deal about the level of third-party support. I think it really is affecting the Wii's sales in Japan, though, and there are signs it could be starting to affect Wii outside Japan, too. From the perspective of "Don't let this train run out of steam! Give her a fresh load of coal!", preemptively launching a new system that could theoretically make it more possible to have that third-party support (as a side effect) might not be a bad idea. As I've said before, something like 360+ power, integrated Motion+, standard CCPro, + some other thing that Nintendo can use as the "real" reason for the new console.
 

schuelma

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donny2112 said:
As I've said before, something like 360+ power, integrated Motion+, standard CCPro, + some other thing that Nintendo can use as the "real" reason for the new console.

I think a standardized bundle with a CC Pro, Motion+, HD capability and a hard drive would be a nice stop gap until a completely new system comes. Just can't see a completely new system with new specs so soon.
 

donny2112

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schuelma said:
I think a standardized bundle with a CC Pro, Motion+, HD capability and a hard drive would be a nice stop gap until a completely new system comes. Just can't see a completely new system with new specs so soon.
To really do the HD correctly (i.e. not "just" output in HD resolutions, but actually have the ability to run HD system games), it'd need the new specs. That's my take on it, anyways. *shrugs*

Fredescu said:
I don't know how much say Miyamoto has in hardware design, but this article made me wonder whether Nintendo will bother making a machine on par with their competitors next time around: http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/25700/Miyamoto_Talks_Hardware_Futures_More_Compact_More_Cost_Efficient_For_Nintendo.php

"I think it would be likely that we would try to make that same functionality perhaps more compact and perhaps even more cost-efficient."
He's just talking about the interface and not the entire console. Making the interface more compact and cost efficient = integrated Motion+

Quote from original interview:
With both the Wii remote itself and Wii Motion Plus, what we've been able to do is introduce an interface that is both I think appealing and at the right price for a broad audience. And while we don't have any concrete plans for what we'll be doing with hardware in the future, what I can say is that, my guess is that because we found this interface to be so interesting, I think it would be likely that we would try to make that same functionality perhaps more compact and perhaps even more cost-efficient.
I think it's pretty clear that he's talking about the controller there.
 
I think Nintendo should probably wait to see how they're selling in January-March 2010 before they seriously consider gearing up heavily for their next console.

If they basically crash as far as post holiday sales go, then it might be a sign they've finally saturated the market for the most part and can start shifting over to the next generation more seriously, but making that call right now might be a bit hasty.

If Wii Relax fails to do anything next year then it might really be a sign to start panicing, but the Wii doesn't seem like it's really doing that badly yet even in Japan to take that drastic of a measure.
 

pseudocaesar

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viciouskillersquirrel said:
He's been here much longer than you have.
Eh.. it was a little light hearted dig at the whole Wii is fucked in Japan graph... and he took me seriously, so then I did a sarcastic You dont come here often line, and your all getting antsy pantsy.
 

donny2112

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Nirolak said:
If Wii Relax fails to do anything next year
I can see the benefit in IR controls, Motion+ motion controls, and the Balance Board, since they're all just different ways to control the on-screen action that can be easier/more intuitive for people. I continue to see no real benefit to the Vitality Sensor.

  1. It's not another means of direct control of the game.
  2. It prevents the easy use of two hands to play a game.

Nintendo better have some awesome, real software for the Vitality Sensor, because, at this point, it's the Nintendo 64 Tetris ear clip to me.
 
donny2112 said:
I can see the benefit in IR controls, Motion+ motion controls, and the Balance Board, since they're all just different ways to control the on-screen action that can be easier/more intuitive for people. I continue to see no real benefit to the Vitality Sensor.

  1. It's not another means of direct control of the game.
  2. It prevents the easy use of two hands to play a game.

Nintendo better have some awesome, real software for the Vitality Sensor, because, at this point, it's the Nintendo 64 Tetris ear clip to me.
Yeah, even Iwata seemed a bit unsure whether the Vitality Sensor would take off. It's essentially the same market biometric readers are targeting today, but at a cheaper price. It's not clear how big that market really is though.

But yeah, I agree with you in that if the Wii crashes after the holiday season and the Vitality Sensor fails to do anything to help hardware sales, there might honestly not be anything else Nintendo can really do to sell the Wii anymore at a rate that would grow the business. It is quite possible that a sizable part of the Wii's new audience is like Guitar Hero's in that once a product gets old enough they're not very enthusiastic to buy more of it no matter what you really do with the content, and the real solution might be to just release a new device to keep growing.

That's not necessarily a bad thing though. When the iPod's sales finally capped out, Apple found great success by introducing the iPhone and iPod Touch, and honestly Nintendo's new audience doesn't seem to be that different from Apple's overal. So ultimately, releasing more products on a shorter timeframe (like seems to be happening with the DS now) might be a real solution for them to keep growing.

I still do think we might be prematurely calling this though, especially on a worldwide scale since that's a lot more important for determining a whole new console release than just Japan.
 

schuelma

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Nirolak said:
I think Nintendo should probably wait to see how they're selling in January-March 2010 before they seriously consider gearing up heavily for their next console.
.
Yeah. Clearly Nintendo is betting very heavily on NSMB Wii in Japan and elsewhere. If next January/February we see sales back down to 2009 levels then something permanent is wrong with the console.
 

devilhawk

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I think a Wii bundle with CC Pro, Wii Sports, and M+ would do very well after the holidays if things continue in Japan. Too early to bundle Resort, but I do see that as an option. A hard drive might be a better choice than a M+ that doesn't have functionality out of the box (if only Wii Sports is bundled). Possibly even make a Wii Play M+ type game to bundle?
 

Dragona Akehi

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cvxfreak said:
NSMB Wii will be absolutely huge, sell tons of systems, and become one of the best selling console games of the generation.
While I consider you to be the best person to turn to when it comes to knowing what's being thought "on the street", I really don't see hardware getting a huge sustainable bump. I'm thinking something closer to the MH3 bump, though still larger than that. The software? Oh hell, thats going to sell forever.
 

schuelma

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Dragona Akehi said:
While I consider you to be the best person to turn to when it comes to knowing what's being thought "on the street", I really don't see hardware getting a huge sustainable bump. .

Yeah I don't feel confident projecting that. I think Wii hardware is going to do extremely well this December, but Nintendo systems usually do well. The test is in January and February.


cvxfreak said:
NSMB Wii will be absolutely huge, sell tons of systems, and become one of the best selling console games of the generation.
You are usually spot on with this stuff, curious how you make these observations- just observing the advertising and retailers?
 

Dragona Akehi

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schuelma said:
Yeah I don't feel confident projecting that. I think Wii hardware is going to do extremely well this December, but Nintendo systems usually do well. The test is in January and February.
Well yeah, I did say "sustainable".

You are usually spot on with this stuff, curious how you make these observations- just observing the advertising and retailers?
He's cvxfreak <3
 

swerve

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Dragona Akehi said:
While I consider you to be the best person to turn to when it comes to knowing what's being thought "on the street", I really don't see hardware getting a huge sustainable bump. I'm thinking something closer to the MH3 bump, though still larger than that. The software? Oh hell, thats going to sell forever.
These two opinions can't easily co-exist.

The continued sales of Mario Kart DS, NSMB DS, Animal Crossing, Brain Age, etc - ie, all the finest examples of Long Tail games - ONLY have that tail when the hardware is still selling huge numbers of units.

For example, see how Mario Kart Wii's success is (quite obviously) tied to the sales of new Wii hardware. In the US and Europe, still selling well, like the hardware. In Japan, dropped significantly, along with the hardware. Now, I'm being Captain Obvious here a bit, but the long-tail sellers as we have come to know them on the DS and earlier on in the Wii's life, will not be replicated by any game if the hardware continues to decline.

What I'm saying is, Wii owners are going to snap up Mario by the end of this calendar year. And it will take significant volumes of new Wii owners (in Japan) to get it into the same league as Nintendo's long sellers from 2006-8.
 

Dragona Akehi

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swerve said:
These two opinions can't easily co-exist.

The continued sales of Mario Kart DS, NSMB DS, Animal Crossing, Brain Age, etc - ie, all the finest examples of Long Tail games - ONLY have that tail when the hardware is still selling huge numbers of units.

For example, see how Mario Kart Wii's success is (quite obviously) tied to the sales of new Wii hardware. In the US and Europe, still selling well, like the hardware. In Japan, dropped significantly, along with the hardware. Now, I'm being Captain Obvious here a bit, but the long-tail sellers as we have come to know them on the DS and earlier on in the Wii's life, will not be replicated by any game if the hardware continues to decline.

What I'm saying is, Wii owners are going to snap up Mario by the end of this calendar year. And it will take significant volumes of new Wii owners (in Japan) to get it into the same league as Nintendo's long sellers from 2006-8.
See thing is, Mario Kart Wii and such are still on the charts, despite the Wii shitting the bed sales-wise. Besides, if there is one game that could possibly get close to a 1:1 selling ratio it'd be NSMBWii.
 

cvxfreak

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The hardware bump for the Wii will hinge on NSMB Wii's legs, which should be long. For all the criticism weekly sales of the Wii get, it does seem to be fixed to a certain extent, showing sensitivity to software releases and such. So I see strong ties with NSMB Wii and Wii sales for at least three months. Wii Fit Plus and Wii Sports Resort were products that followed up on successful but similar games. NSMB Wii is following up on Galaxy and Mario Kart Wii, but the DS showed us that 2D Mario has its own following and ability to sell.

As for NSMB Wii's sales itself: Nintendo's using the same tactics that made Pokemon Platinum, Famicom Mini and Touch Generations big sellers: tapping into nostalgia while trying to be highly socially inclusive. Advertisements across Japan show a screenshot of a 2D Mario game with the NSMB Wii logo. This formula is proven to work and I cannot imagine NSMB Wii breaking that trend.
 

Dragona Akehi

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cvxfreak said:
The hardware bump for the Wii will hinge on NSMB Wii's legs, which should be long. For all the criticism weekly sales of the Wii get, it does seem to be fixed to a certain extent, showing sensitivity to software releases and such. So I see strong ties with NSMB Wii and Wii sales for at least three months. Wii Fit Plus and Wii Sports Resort were products that followed up on successful but similar games. NSMB Wii is following up on Galaxy and Mario Kart Wii, but the DS showed us that 2D Mario has its own following and ability to sell.

As for NSMB Wii's sales itself: Nintendo's using the same tactics that made Pokemon Platinum, Famicom Mini and Touch Generations big sellers: tapping into nostalgia while trying to be highly socially inclusive. Advertisements across Japan show a screenshot of a 2D Mario game with the NSMB Wii logo. This formula is proven to work and I cannot imagine NSMB Wii breaking that trend.
Well it wouldn't be the first time I was wrong about Sales-Age. I just am not that optimistic.