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Media Create Sales: Nov 30-Dec 6, 2009
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
I know this is the Media Create thread but I have to be honest, I think the only really interesting sales discussion about ToG has in it is how well it does in America, assuming that it comes over there.
Will the ToS->TOS2 effect still work on another Wii game with no direct ties to the initial success? I don't know but I'm anxious to see what comes of it.
Will the ToS->TOS2 effect still work on another Wii game with no direct ties to the initial success? I don't know but I'm anxious to see what comes of it.
Not for most japanese developed titles. JRPGs haven't evolved one bit since PS2 days - I haven't followed ToG that closely, but I honestly can't see anything that differentiates it from ToV (that would actually affect costs noticeably).radcliff said:
I bet that the cheaper of the two is the one with less content, regardless of the platform.
Are we going to have this week's Famitsu leak sometime this year?
I'm a little surprised from the underperformance of Winning Eleven and Graces (at least from first day sales) and very surprised from Modern Warfare 2 numbers.
Since there is no Famitsu leak the only chart that can be updated is this:
Wii performance after price cut (Media Create)
WII YTD: 1.419.425
PS3 YTD: 1.341.811
DIF YTD: 77.614
And for the usual suspects
Famitsu 360:
As of 29/11/09 I have 276 games with the total software being 5.154.548. Using geocities (mainly) and Moor-Angol's sites there are 6 more games and at least half of the games of the list have more up to date LTDs. Is that guy from geocities having access to Enterbrain 360 weekly report or something?
I'm a little surprised from the underperformance of Winning Eleven and Graces (at least from first day sales) and very surprised from Modern Warfare 2 numbers.
Since there is no Famitsu leak the only chart that can be updated is this:
Wii performance after price cut (Media Create)
Code:
week 2007 2008 2009
40 20.704 25.330 35.392
41 20.575 22.877 30.741
42 24.932 26.024 29.965
43 27.502 24.292 25.917
44 37.617 23.123 28.888
45 34.546 24.726 31.810
46 36.230 26.787 26.764
47 54.362 35.298 32.844
48 74.764 49.848 46.673
49 115.057 56.702 106.555
50 170.558 91.641
51 232.907 131.054
52 152.209 134.958WII YTD: 1.419.425
PS3 YTD: 1.341.811
DIF YTD: 77.614
And for the usual suspects
Famitsu 360:
As of 29/11/09 I have 276 games with the total software being 5.154.548. Using geocities (mainly) and Moor-Angol's sites there are 6 more games and at least half of the games of the list have more up to date LTDs. Is that guy from geocities having access to Enterbrain 360 weekly report or something?
For me it was a matter of being cash strapped. I love RPGs but I can't afford both FFXIII and ToG in one month. And it's not just the money but also the amount of available game time. I can't beat ToG in time for FFXIII so I might as well get it later when I can devote more time to it. I am not sure how many people are in the same situation but I bet any hardcore tales fan has both the Wii and PS3 (or 360 I suppose). Then again these Otaku gamers seem to have money (and time) to burn so maybe it doesn't matter so much.
Kenka said:
There is no way it will reach 400K. No way. None.
I do agree that some of the talk is overblown. It had a disappointing first day relative to ToS:KoR and Vesperia PS3. Doesn't mean it will have the same multiplier as KoR..we'll have to see. If I had to bet, I would guess it will end up at around 170K first week and get close to 300K LTD, helped by the holiday season. Or maybe it will do worse than a mediocre spinoff and not break 200K, in which case I would imagine Namco would be done with the series on the Wii.
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
We didn't get the sell through. Namco shipped over 260,000 copies of Taiko 2 on day 1, and sold 14,000 that day. Its Namco after all...schuelma said:
If you pay attention, he says from where he's updating the numbers on the site (now it says it was from this week Famitsu magazine). I've seen him mention Famitsu 360 before (as well as the others　specific magazines).Chris1964 said:
Sometimes he gets random LTD updates from the magazines. I've seen them posted in 2ch, but I've never seen any scan to know from where they're really coming. (It's also worth mentioning I've only started watching the numbers recently.)
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
Heh, who knows, I still wonder where are the rest of the 301k copies Namco claims to have shipped of Tales of the Tempest in Japan while trackers give it a 200k total.schuelma said:
Btw, there isn't a single tales game announced right now, when was the last time this happened?
Maybe Namco is done with the series!
Kenka said:
That the news make you unhappy is irrelevant for this thread. The first day sales of the game are really poor and that's a fact, that's what we are discussing, same way everyone (sane) here agrees that NSMB sales are phenomenal.
Another vote for Vesperia 2 here, probably multi but simultaneous this time.
Dragona Akehi
Retired
I told you all that Tales'd do horribly. I had a feeling in my bones.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Expecting a modern Tales to triple or quadruple its first day sales is pretty out there. They're lucky to double.Kenka said:
EDIT: Fair to qualify that the DS ones have been a bit more leggy, but the one for Wii wasn't.
jeremy1456
Junior Member
Dragona Akehi said:
So you're admitting to being wrong?
It didn't do horribly.
JoshuaJSlone said:
400k ? It's possible. I stand to it. Mostly because the Wii has gaines more exposure during this week with this +128% bump from last week. I can very well see casual gamers pick it up this Christmas with new light shed on the Wii thanks to NSMB Wii.
And, seriously, I still don't get the "Graces bomb" thing. It makes me want to puke. I'd be very happy to see those people eat crow.
><
I think the Japanese situation is fairly simple, and in many ways, resembles the Western situation.
The Wii seems to sell to a diverse group of people. I'm sure there are some young males in there, but there are also children (both genders) and elderly (both genders). The last we saw, Nintendo proudly trumpeted the gender split on their systems, with the Wii being 40/60 female/male -- a far higher share of women than any system I've ever heard of.
However, most Japanese developers make games for 12-30 year old males (and, I believe, with a specifically nerdy bent, although that may be controversial). JRPGs, action games like DMC or Bayonetta, Metal Gear, sports games like WE, and so forth, are all heavily focused on male interests, and these are (by and large) the headlining games of most third parties.
In contrast to the Wii, the PS3 seems to be comprised primarily of this young male demographic. Again, while Nintendo intended their graphs showing the diverse userbase to be a good thing, if you're making a game like Metal Gear, I doubt that's something you want to hear. That franchise clearly focuses on male interests, so from the perspective of Metal Gear developers, all this means is that half the user base is going to ignore your game, because most girls have little interest in pretending to be a super spy fighting mecha robots.
The Wii seems to sell to a diverse group of people. I'm sure there are some young males in there, but there are also children (both genders) and elderly (both genders). The last we saw, Nintendo proudly trumpeted the gender split on their systems, with the Wii being 40/60 female/male -- a far higher share of women than any system I've ever heard of.
However, most Japanese developers make games for 12-30 year old males (and, I believe, with a specifically nerdy bent, although that may be controversial). JRPGs, action games like DMC or Bayonetta, Metal Gear, sports games like WE, and so forth, are all heavily focused on male interests, and these are (by and large) the headlining games of most third parties.
In contrast to the Wii, the PS3 seems to be comprised primarily of this young male demographic. Again, while Nintendo intended their graphs showing the diverse userbase to be a good thing, if you're making a game like Metal Gear, I doubt that's something you want to hear. That franchise clearly focuses on male interests, so from the perspective of Metal Gear developers, all this means is that half the user base is going to ignore your game, because most girls have little interest in pretending to be a super spy fighting mecha robots.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
jeremy1456 said:
But recent "Tales of" games have been a serious decline from series highs and this looks like it's going to fall short of a year old port and roughly tie a low budget spinoff. Where would you set the threshold for "horrible"?
Chris1964 said:
I really don't want to get in to list wars.
I'll just reiterate that Nintendo itself provided that 40/60 split information, as well as information showing that they appeal to a wide variety of ages. It seems absolutely logical that games which appeal strongly to a single demographic but have virtually no appeal outside that demographic -- such as Metal Gear -- would underperform compared to user base size. Generally speaking, for such a game, the "diverse users" who fall outside the target demographic might as well not own the system.
I'm also not saying that "diverse users" is an inherently a bad thing. In fact, one could easily argue it's very good, as a general concept. But regardless of theory and concept, in the real world, most third parties do not make games for a diverse userbase. It's not a slight on Nintendo or third parties, it's just a recognition that most third parties take an approach (hit a single demographic as hard as they can) that is different than Nintendo's (attract a diverse base of users and players), and it reflects in the struggles third parties seem to have on the Wii.
jeremy1456 said:
It looks like it's going to do worse than a port of a game that came out a year ago. And this is before we consider the holiday impact. What exactly is the threshold for "horrible" sales? Would we define it instead as "thoroughly mediocre" or "disappointing?"
I'm really not interested in splitting those semantic hairs. If we can all agree that it did worse than we might expect it to in context, then let's leave it at that.
Opiate said:
It's performing worse based on what? First day sales? Didn't Dawn of the New World outsell Tales of Vesperia in the long-run despite front-loaded sales of Vesperia on the Xbox 360? I don't see how those first day sales can be a black mark on the game's overall sales potential during a strong December month for Nintendo hardware wise. New Super Mario Bros. as well as Basara and Tales of bundles are a bit of a wildcard here. I think it'll improve the overall performance of strong Wii software for the month at least.
Hero of Legend
Member
How about something optimistic?
It passed Vesperia 360's 1st Week on the 1st day, so it's not all doom and gloom.
Also, wouldn't it be fair to credit Vesperia's high PS3 sales to the fact that it sorta had free advertising when it was on the 360? The game itself got out there, just not for the platform it was also later released on. See what I'm saying?
It passed Vesperia 360's 1st Week on the 1st day, so it's not all doom and gloom.
Also, wouldn't it be fair to credit Vesperia's high PS3 sales to the fact that it sorta had free advertising when it was on the 360? The game itself got out there, just not for the platform it was also later released on. See what I'm saying?
Opiate you say that Metal Gear would underperform on Wii because it appeals only to a single demographic that isn't strong on the system, and probably Monster Hunter 3 didn't underperform (or did it?) because it appeals to both males/females. I'm not from Japan but I don't think that's the case with Monster Hunter. Maybe someone from Japan can enlight us on this.
Kenka said:
No one is saying that Graces bombed (Bombed like Sin and Punishment 2 or Crystal Bearers, for instance). What most (myself included) have been saying is that the first day sales are disappointing. If it manages to double its lead or if it manages to have awesome legs, no skin off my back; that will encourage Namco to make more high quality RPGs for the system. But given the trends of virtually hundreds of other games, Tales games especially, we can hypothesize that the fortuante situations will not likely happen and we can also see that it did worse than Tales RPGs that had a lot less effort put into them.
In addition, this also throws some wrenches into the Wii third party software situation in Japan altogether. If Graces underperforms, then we have to wonder why a game with a lot of quality put into it still underperformed like the tests and spinoffs.
velvet_nitemare
Member
Hero of Legend said:
Come on now. Just accept it and let it go.
thestopsign
Member
duckroll said:
Sorry I'm late on the response, but I was mixing trackers there without realizing. In Media-Create TOS2 did 139k. Didn't realize that the situation was that dire for ToG.
Hero of Legend
Member
Spiegel said:
That's what I thought anyway. So I'm wrong.
I don't see why we don't table this discussion until we actually get 1st week, and even 2nd week numbers. There is enough variation in the weekend ratio's recently that there is a wide spectrum of what Graces could end up doing. At first glance, ToS:KoR would seem too provide the most insight, but I suspect it will do better (possible theories- since it was a quasi sequel it had more up front business, probably didn't have great word of mouth, Graces is releasing in the most favorable Wii environment in a while).
Anyways, I think Opiate's theory certainly holds some validity but I would argue it holds less in Japan than in N.A. Monster Hunter 3 selling to mostly the existing Wii audience would seem to blow a rather significant hole in that theory. I do think its very likely that the general RPG audience is much more prevelant on the PS3 because I think people have been buying the system for the FF13 projects since day one. That's my own personal theory on Vesperia's PS3 success.
Anyways, I think Opiate's theory certainly holds some validity but I would argue it holds less in Japan than in N.A. Monster Hunter 3 selling to mostly the existing Wii audience would seem to blow a rather significant hole in that theory. I do think its very likely that the general RPG audience is much more prevelant on the PS3 because I think people have been buying the system for the FF13 projects since day one. That's my own personal theory on Vesperia's PS3 success.
Chris1964 said:
I would say that 1) A single counter example isn't strong evidence, particularly when that game has such exceptional pull, and 2) while I would hardly call MH3 a failure, I also wouldn't call it a runaway success, compared to expectations.
I could produce the long list of games that have underperformed slightly or significantly on the Wii -- including games made by Nintendo itself, which focus on young males -- but I won't, because this is not the evidence my argument is based on, and we've had enough of these list wars for a lifetime. I'm asking you again, Chris, please stop.
Instead, my argument is based on evidence provided by Nintendo, coupled with obvious common sense. Taking the example even further, to make the point clearly, imagine if you have a user base that is 90% young girls. Would making a game that appeals very strongly to older males (with violence, sexuality, or reliance on typical male archetypes such as swords or guns or cars) be a good idea? No. Even with a user base of 20 million., the vast majority of the user base simply wouldn't be accessible to your product. Is this seriously something you're arguinig against? It should be obvious, common sense stuff.
Hero of Legend
Member
kswiston said:
You have a point there.
What I find amusing is how Vesparia PS3 which had new content, rode on the back of essentially a system reboot and already had good word of mouth is now "just a port" less than a month later
This has nothing to do with ToG, it just seems funny to me given the excitement and obvious appeal of Vesparia on the PS3 is now reduced to being talked about as it was some cheap cash in.
This has nothing to do with ToG, it just seems funny to me given the excitement and obvious appeal of Vesparia on the PS3 is now reduced to being talked about as it was some cheap cash in.
Opiate said:
Again on Monster Hunter, compared to initial expectations it was absolutely an unqualified success. Based on last minute predictions do to the huge shipment, maybe not. But you can't just dismiss it as a single example when it absolutely dwarfs any other 3rd party attempt at gaining that type of audience.
As far as Nintendo's own games in Japan, I don't know if I buy that. For every Takt of Magic you have something like Fatal Frame, Paper Mario, or Fire Emblem that has performed very similar (or better) to past iterations.
velvet_nitemare
Member
markatisu said:
Um, it IS a year old port. All those things don't change that one big thing it had going against it.
markatisu said:
Being a one year old port still puts it at a disadvantage for LTD sales. Tales of Vesperia wouldn't have sold the same 500k+ as a PS3 only title, but it might have hit 375-400k. I'm sure there was some heavy double dipping by 360 owners, but it's not like all 200k Tales of Vesperia (360) owners went out and re-purchased the game.
Die Squirrel Die
Member
gkrykewy said:
I hope you are tarring everybody with the same brush and not just those you disagree with, because there's more than enough cherry picking on both sides to go around.
velvet_nitemare
Member
Die Squirrel Die said:
So true. I've seen a poster derided for spinning for putting forward similar arguments.
markatisu said:
Okay, so why is Graces performing like it is? If the devoted fanbase will go wherever Tales games go, why isn't it doing ToV PS3 numbers? It's a completely new game with all-new content. Is there something fundamentally wrong with the Wii?
Is it a question of not building up the userbase of the PS3? The Wii had a couple of Tales games on the system already, unlike the PS3. The biggest RPG on the PS3 to that point was what, WKC? Was it the flood of GUST and Nippon Ichi RPGs that made the difference?
charlequin
Banned
Spiegel said:
No. :lol
schuelma said:
Errr... why?
Opiate said:
I don't think there's any inherent reason that girls wouldn't be interested in playing a game where they're a super spy who fights robots, but I would agree that Metal Gear is not generally going to appeal to women. :lol
obonicus said:
That's almost too easy.
It does not seem entirely unreasonable to believe that PS3's position as the home of low-grade slightly-pervy moe bullshit would help it out on selling Tales games, now that you mention it.