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Media Create Sales: Oct 12-18, 2009
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Graphics Horse
Member
onken said:
23,000 copies day one doesn't sound too bad does it?
Maybe they shouldn't have bothered for the non HD systems though.
I still don't think that NSMBWii will be a huge system mover. NSMB launched on a year and a half year old DS that had just seen an immensely popular re-design three months prior, and had witnessed the release of 3 of it's eventual top 5 selling games 6 months prior. I think the relative newness of the system, the release of the DS lite and the release of 4 of the best selling titles of all time within a 6-7 month period had a synergistic effect on sales.
The Wii is three years old. The system's mega sellers all launched 18 months to 3 years ago, and the sales synergy from those titles has long worn off. The sequels to two of those mega sellers are huge sellers in their own right, but have done little to re-energize hardware sales. I'm not sure why NSMB Wii is supposed to drastically change things. It may be the first 2D Mario game available for the system (if you discount Super Paper Mario, and ignore the fact that the first 4 games are on Virtual Console), but Nintendo/Mario fans have seen the release of pretty much every major first party franchise on the console during the past 3 years. Surely a large portion of the people who would be interested in NSMB Wii already own the system.
Also, for as much as Animal Crossing City Folk is discounted as a major seller now, a lot of the people expecting big things from NSMB Wii also expected big things from that title last year. It's easy, in hindsight, to call AC:CF a lazy effort that was nothing like the greatness that is NSMB Wii, but it was still the followup to a 5 million selling DS title.
People have looked to Animal Crossing, Wii Sports Resort, Monster Hunter 3, and Wii Sports Resort to prop up sagging Wii sales within the past year. While most of those titles did provide a modest sales bump, I don't think that the boost was as pronounced or as long lasting as most were hoping. I see the same thing happening with NSMB Wii. Somewhere between 1-2Million in sales within the calendar year, but little help to Wii hardware numbers beyond the usual December increase.
If Wii saw a 450k December last year, than I doubt sales hit 400k this December (personally, I think 350-375k is more likely). December sales won't sag by 50% like they have for the year as a whole, but I don't see the Wii breaking its downward sales trend in December, even with NSMB Wii.
That said, I still think that the Wii will win the YTD race with the PS3. Sales between the two consoles will be within 150k for the year, with Wii winning November and December being a toss-up.
If Final Fantasy XIII hits with two weeks to go in the year, here is my prediction for PS3 December sales:
week 1: 50k
week 2: 55k
week 3 (FFXIII): 175k
week 4: 75k
The Wii is three years old. The system's mega sellers all launched 18 months to 3 years ago, and the sales synergy from those titles has long worn off. The sequels to two of those mega sellers are huge sellers in their own right, but have done little to re-energize hardware sales. I'm not sure why NSMB Wii is supposed to drastically change things. It may be the first 2D Mario game available for the system (if you discount Super Paper Mario, and ignore the fact that the first 4 games are on Virtual Console), but Nintendo/Mario fans have seen the release of pretty much every major first party franchise on the console during the past 3 years. Surely a large portion of the people who would be interested in NSMB Wii already own the system.
Also, for as much as Animal Crossing City Folk is discounted as a major seller now, a lot of the people expecting big things from NSMB Wii also expected big things from that title last year. It's easy, in hindsight, to call AC:CF a lazy effort that was nothing like the greatness that is NSMB Wii, but it was still the followup to a 5 million selling DS title.
People have looked to Animal Crossing, Wii Sports Resort, Monster Hunter 3, and Wii Sports Resort to prop up sagging Wii sales within the past year. While most of those titles did provide a modest sales bump, I don't think that the boost was as pronounced or as long lasting as most were hoping. I see the same thing happening with NSMB Wii. Somewhere between 1-2Million in sales within the calendar year, but little help to Wii hardware numbers beyond the usual December increase.
If Wii saw a 450k December last year, than I doubt sales hit 400k this December (personally, I think 350-375k is more likely). December sales won't sag by 50% like they have for the year as a whole, but I don't see the Wii breaking its downward sales trend in December, even with NSMB Wii.
That said, I still think that the Wii will win the YTD race with the PS3. Sales between the two consoles will be within 150k for the year, with Wii winning November and December being a toss-up.
If Final Fantasy XIII hits with two weeks to go in the year, here is my prediction for PS3 December sales:
week 1: 50k
week 2: 55k
week 3 (FFXIII): 175k
week 4: 75k
kswiston said:
I guessed you missed the graphs I posted that showed Wii Fit having a strong ratio of the Wii sales for months until Wii Fit Plus was announced/WSR was released.
kswiston said:
Wii Sports Resort, pretty much yeah. Wii Fit Plus is likely the reason for Wii's lack of drop following the price drop, though. The price drop was too small to do a lot, but I think Wii Fit Plus is what is keeping up the Wii sales post-price drop.
kswiston said:
It's a game that Japanese gamers who might not have been interested in Wii before could theoretically take notice of big time. Super Mario Galaxy only started its turnaround when it started being directly compared to NSMB DS in commercials. That means that NSMB DS gamers didn't see Galaxy as a game in the same vein.
kswiston said:
Which isn't a 2-D platformer, much to my disappointment.
kswiston said:
Because we all know how powerful DD is in Japan.
kswiston said:
If you pigeon-hole NSMB DS fans as Nintendo fans who buy everything Nintendo, sure. However, there aren't 5 million Nintendo fans in Japan who buy everything Nintendo.
kswiston said:
"How large?" is the question.
kswiston said:
They would've been having to count on the fans being totally oblivious to the fact that it's a lazier port of a lazy port.
kswiston said:
I was and am still calling AC:WW a lazy port, so it's obvious there were people who could call a spade a spade prior to its sales results.
kswiston said:
Very possible.
kswiston said:
Wow, I really can't see Wii sales going down from last year when you look at the lineup and lower price. I'm repeating myself here, but last year in December Wii had one game that sold above 200K for the month- Taiko Wii. That's it. So Wii sold above 400K in December on the strength of a month old Animal Crossing, a two months old Wii Music, and Taiko Wii.
This year NSMB Wii comes out Dec. 3rd. So does Samurai Warriors 3. Tales of Graces is out the next week. The new Pikachu game is out the 5th. And you also have the Taiko sequel that I'm sure will be selling into December. Add to that a lower price point and I frankly find it inconceivable that it will do less this year.
Re: NSMB Wii..I honestly don't remember anywhere near this excitement/expectation for Animal Crossing. You certainly may be right that it won't be a "system seller" long term, but I think at the least it will be a nice driver during the holiday season when Nintendo is most successful anyways. (I would also argue against your "everyone who already wants the game owns the system" argument. I think it potentially taps into a different audience from the Wii titled games and other blockbusters with its 2D Mario nostalgia).
Dengeki Oct. 12 - 19
01./01. [WII] Wii Fit Plus (Nintendo) - 120,450 / 614,345
02./02. [NDS] Pokemon Soul Silver (Pokemon) - 94,595 / 1,336,772
03./04. [NDS] Pokemon Heart Gold (Pokemon) - 77,383 / 1,302,489
04./05. [NDS] Tomodachi Collection (Nintendo) - 60,767 / 1,412,501
05./00. [PS3] Uncharted 2: Among Thieves (SCE) - 47,993 / NEW
06./08. [NDS] Inazuma Eleven 2: Kyoui no Shinryakusha - Fire (Level 5) - 36,522 / 219,010
07./07. [NDS] Inazuma Eleven 2: Kyoui no Shinryakusha - Blizzard (Level 5) - 34,806 / 236,785
08./03. [NDS] Shin Megami Tensei: Strange Journey (Atlus) - 25,050 / 108,268
09./06. [PSP] Gran Turismo (SCE) - 23,124 / 205,802
10./09. [WII] Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo) - 22,969 / 1,288,378
11./00. [WII] Okami (Capcom) - 19,550 / NEW
12./00. [PSP] Undead Knights (Tecmo) - 18,225 / NEW
13./12. [NDS] Love Plus (Konami) - 17,107 / ?
14./00. [PSP] Hagane no Renkinjutsushi: Senaka wo Takuseshi Mono (Bandai Namco Games) - 14,905 / NEW
15./00. [PS2] BeatMania IIDX 16: Empress + Premium Best (Konami) - 13,542 / NEW
16./11. [NDS] Dragon Quest IX: Hoshizora no Mamoribito (Square-Enix) - 13,400 / 4,001,422
17./10. [PSP] Macross Ultimate Frontier (Bandai Namco Games) - 12,539 / 104,884
18./13. [PSP] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Yakkyuu Portable 4 (Konami) - 11,761 / 207,763
19./18. [PSP] Monster Hunter Portable 2nd G (BEST) (Capcom) - 9,241 / 1,007,382
20./00. [NDS] Kimi ni Todoke: Sodateru Omoi (Bandai Namco Games) - 9,145 / NEW
Other software:
[PS3] Uncharted: Eldorado no Hihou (FW: 14,000 / LTD: 56,000)
01./01. [WII] Wii Fit Plus (Nintendo) - 120,450 / 614,345
02./02. [NDS] Pokemon Soul Silver (Pokemon) - 94,595 / 1,336,772
03./04. [NDS] Pokemon Heart Gold (Pokemon) - 77,383 / 1,302,489
04./05. [NDS] Tomodachi Collection (Nintendo) - 60,767 / 1,412,501
05./00. [PS3] Uncharted 2: Among Thieves (SCE) - 47,993 / NEW
06./08. [NDS] Inazuma Eleven 2: Kyoui no Shinryakusha - Fire (Level 5) - 36,522 / 219,010
07./07. [NDS] Inazuma Eleven 2: Kyoui no Shinryakusha - Blizzard (Level 5) - 34,806 / 236,785
08./03. [NDS] Shin Megami Tensei: Strange Journey (Atlus) - 25,050 / 108,268
09./06. [PSP] Gran Turismo (SCE) - 23,124 / 205,802
10./09. [WII] Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo) - 22,969 / 1,288,378
11./00. [WII] Okami (Capcom) - 19,550 / NEW
12./00. [PSP] Undead Knights (Tecmo) - 18,225 / NEW
13./12. [NDS] Love Plus (Konami) - 17,107 / ?
14./00. [PSP] Hagane no Renkinjutsushi: Senaka wo Takuseshi Mono (Bandai Namco Games) - 14,905 / NEW
15./00. [PS2] BeatMania IIDX 16: Empress + Premium Best (Konami) - 13,542 / NEW
16./11. [NDS] Dragon Quest IX: Hoshizora no Mamoribito (Square-Enix) - 13,400 / 4,001,422
17./10. [PSP] Macross Ultimate Frontier (Bandai Namco Games) - 12,539 / 104,884
18./13. [PSP] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Yakkyuu Portable 4 (Konami) - 11,761 / 207,763
19./18. [PSP] Monster Hunter Portable 2nd G (BEST) (Capcom) - 9,241 / 1,007,382
20./00. [NDS] Kimi ni Todoke: Sodateru Omoi (Bandai Namco Games) - 9,145 / NEW
Other software:
[PS3] Uncharted: Eldorado no Hihou (FW: 14,000 / LTD: 56,000)
Code:
Hardware | This Week | Last Week | YTD | LTD
------------------------------------------------------------
NDS | 49,999 | 53,930 | 2,913,503 | 27,891,594
PSP | 34,374 | 40,240 | 1,647,009 | 12,796,327
Wii | 28,361 | 28,603 | 1,131,725 | 8,714,768
PS3 | 29,966 | 29,122 | 1,049,395 | 3,751,538
X360 | 3,195 | 3,906 | 300,831 | 1,152,014
PS2 | 2,274 | 2,045 | |
------------------------------------------------------------
Total | 148,169 | 157,846 |so you believe there is huge market out there of poeple dying for à 2D Jump and Run with Mario and they all waited to this Date and Day to buy the System until their lovely 2D Mario is out, right? Mario is Mario, the Game doesnt Even matter and i say almost everybody who Likes Mario should have à Wii by now and the 50$ Price Drop is Not ssssoooo much to attract to à whole New market, the Next Big market will Be resched with 99$ Price tag.schuelma said:
Cosmonaut X
Member
obaidr said:
My head hurts trying to parse what you just wrote...
obaidr said:
People aren't "waiting" for anything, it just happens, word spreads and people buy it. This is how system sellers work. If they knew they were going to buy it they'd have the system as soon as they are able because it doesn't matter if you have it 2 months in advance or the day of.
slaughterking
Member
Well, I think most people use AC to illustrate how much better the Wii is positioned this year (with NSMB).
danielijohnson
Banned
This is what I've been saying all along. People forget how well Mario Kart Wii did. It is MUCH more comparable to that.cvxfreak said:
danielijohnson
Banned
But how does that correlate to sales of software or hardware? Wouldn't it be better to compare it to a similar title?slaughterking said:
Compared to last year, this year end Wii has a better game, a lower price, and a lower baseline. PS3 has a better game, a lower price, and a higher baseline. The YOY comparisons will be interesting. I don't think there's any doubt PS3 will be much higher YOY. To me, the open questions are exactly how much PS3 will increase, and whether the Wii will be up or down YOY. I don't think it's a slam dunk either way.
slaughterking
Member
Animal Crossing was the big Nintendo game for the holiday season 08 and NSMB is going to be the same for 09 -- and in that sense they are simliar. Only that NSMB is going to be much, much bigger and that is the point people like schuelma are trying to make when they are bringing up AC.danielijohnson said:
There are also some people claiming that NSMB Wii is to NSMB DS what ACCT was to ACWW, but that is just silly.
danielijohnson
Banned
Right, that's my point.slaughterking said:
I'm confused how anyone could discount a 2d Mario game on a home console when they have historically been some of the greatest selling games of all time.
It looks like we'll get November NPDs right around the time we'll get the first Media Create data for NSMB Wii and I think it's going to be pretty staggering on both sides of the ocean.
test_account
XP-39C²
Wont Pokemon Heart Gold/Soul Silver, Wii Fit Plus and/or maybe Tomodachi Collection haveoutsell Rune Factor 3 this week?Zihark said:Looks like RF3 is the top game of the weekTho, I think numbers are down from previous entries, anyone got rf1 and 2 first week numbers, I know rff did 20k in first week
EDIT: Or maybe you ment the top game that was released this week. Pokemon Heart Gold/Soul Silver, Wii Fit Plus and maybe Tomodachi Collection are older games. If you ment the top game that was released this week, then Rune Factor will most likely be the top game of the week indeed
The thing I don't get about all you guys comparing December 2008 to 2009... Yes, the line up is infinitely better, there's no question about that. But December 2008 really speaks for the anomaly that was 2008 as a whole. The Wii sold like gangbusters in 2008 without software period. I mean, that's not to discount SSBB or Mario Kart, but those games were far and few in between.
And rather, in 2009, the opposite has been true. Wii has had some good software releases - MH3, WSR, Wii Fit+ - but that has done very little outside of spiking hardware for a week and then dwindling. The end of 2009 is going to be really interesting, I could really see either console winning out.
Also, interesting to see COD4 still tracking moderately well. Does anyone think the MW2 release could potentially see a small bump for the PS3?
And rather, in 2009, the opposite has been true. Wii has had some good software releases - MH3, WSR, Wii Fit+ - but that has done very little outside of spiking hardware for a week and then dwindling. The end of 2009 is going to be really interesting, I could really see either console winning out.
Also, interesting to see COD4 still tracking moderately well. Does anyone think the MW2 release could potentially see a small bump for the PS3?
Here's the 2008/2009 comparison.
If the Wii's holiday lineup were comparable to last year's, I would anticipate Wii holiday sales being lower than last year's. It's better, though, so we'll have to see if 2D Mario is really capable of pushing hardware.
I think Wii Sports and Wii Fit will go down as two of the greatest system sellers ever, so it's not out of the realm of possibility. Nintendo has shown a knack for building games that move hardware.
If the Wii's holiday lineup were comparable to last year's, I would anticipate Wii holiday sales being lower than last year's. It's better, though, so we'll have to see if 2D Mario is really capable of pushing hardware.
I think Wii Sports and Wii Fit will go down as two of the greatest system sellers ever, so it's not out of the realm of possibility. Nintendo has shown a knack for building games that move hardware.
No, it didn't. The biggest reason for the big drop of its sales in Japan was the lack of high profile software from Nintendo (mainly) and third parties.EXGN said:
Is there anyone who really believes that Wii will have a worse holiday season than last year? End of 2008 had the worst release schedule for Wii ever and end of 2009 has the best. Alongside the pricecut a drop in sales simply doesn't compute.
These are the comparisons of the upcoming titles between this and last year (titles that charted at the famitsu leak) for the remaining weeks.
Week 44
2009 (29/10/09)
[WII] Sin and Punishment 2 (Nintendo)
[WII] Super Robot Wars Neo (Namco Bandai)
[WII] Wacky World of Sports (Sega)
2008 (30/10/08)
[WII] Harvest Moon: Exciting Animal March (Marvelous Entertainment)
[WII] Shape Boxing Wii: Enjoy the Diet! (Rocket Company)
[WII] MySims Kingdom (Electronic Arts Victor)
[WII] Hula Wii: Beauty and Health through Hula (Milestone)
Week 45
2009 (05/11/09)
[WII] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games (Nintendo)
[WII] Dragon Ball Z: Budokai Tenkaichi 3 (Welcome Price 3800) (Namco Bandai)
[WII] One Piece: Unlimited Adventure (Welcome Price 3800) (Namco Bandai)
[WII] Aim!! Fishing Master (Hudson the Best) (Hudson)
2008 (06/11/08)
[WII] -
Week 46
2009 (12/11/09)
[WII] Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: The Crystal Bearers (Square Enix)
2008 (13/11/08)
[WII] Family Ski & Snowboard (Namco Bandai)
[WII] New Jinsei Game Wii (Takara Tomy)
[WII] de Blob (THQ)
[WII] FIFA 09: All-Play (Electronic Arts Victor)
Week 47
2009 (19/11/09)
[WII] Taiko Drum Master Wii: Dodon to 2 Yome! (Namco Bandai)
[WII] Family Challenge Wii (Konami)
[WII] Metal Fight Beyblade: Gachinko Stadium (Hudson)
[WII] Calling (Hudson)
[WII] Lost in Blue Wii (Konami the Best) (Konami)
2008 (20/11/08)
[WII] Animal Crossing: City Folk (Nintendo)
[WII] Katekyoo Hitman Reborn! Forbidden Black Delta (Marvelous Entertainment)
Week 48
2009 (26/11/09)
[WII] Karaoke Joysound Wii DX (Hudson)
[WII] Monotaro Railway 2010: Sengoku Ishin no Hero Daishuugou! no Maki (Hudson)
[WII] Naruto: Shippuden Ryujinki (Takara Tomy)
[WII] Puyo Puyo 7 (Sega)
[WII] Rabbids Go Home (Ubisoft)
[WII] SimAnimals Africa (Electronic Arts Victor)
2008 (27/11/08)
[WII] Rune Factory Frontier (Marvelous Entertainment)
[WII] Naruto: Shippuuden Gekitou Ninja Taisen! EX 3 (Takara Tomy)
[WII] Help Wanted (Hudson)
[WII] World Puzzle Mojipittan Wii Deluxe (Namco Bandai)
Week 49
2009 (03/12/09 - 05/12/09)
[WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo)
[WII] Samurai Warriors 3 (Koei)
[WII] Kamen Rider: Climax Heroes W (Namco Bandai)
[WII] Isometric & Karate Exercise: Wii de Kotsuban Fitness (IE Institute)
[WII] Takumi Restaurant wa Daihanjou! (Dorart)
[WII] Tokyo Friend Pack II Ketteiban: Minna de Chousen! Taikan Attraction (Spike)
[WII] Up (THQ)
[WII] Dragon Quest Swords: The Masked Queen and the Tower of Mirrors (Ultimate Hits) (Square Enix)
[WII] Resident Evil (Best Price!) (Capcom)
[WII] Resident Evil 0 (Best Price!) (Capcom)
[WII] Pokemon Park Wii: Picachu's Great Adventure (Pokemon Co.)
2008 (04/12/08)
[WII] 428: The World Doesn't Change Even So (Sega)
[WII] Klonoa (Namco Bandai)
[WII] Cooking Mama 2: World Kitchen (Taito Corporation)
Week 50
2009 (10/12/09)
[WII] Tales of Graces (Namco Bandai)
[WII] Family Trainer 2 (Namco Bandai)
[WII] Family Trainer 1 & 2 (Namco Bandai)
[WII] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2010 (Konami)
[WII] Fullmetal Alchemist: Daughter of the Dusk (Square Enix)
[WII] Battle Arena Toshinden (Takara Tomy)
2008 (11/12/08)
[WII] Taiko Drum Master Wii (Namco Bandai)
[WII] Tatsunoko Vs. Capcom: Cross Generation of Heroes (Capcom)
[WII] New Play Control! Donkey Kong: Jungle Beat (Nintendo)
[WII] Yattaman Wii: Bikkuridokkiri Machine de Mou Race da Koron (Takara Tomy)
[WII] Major Wii Perfect Closer (Takara Tomy)
[WII] Samba de Amigo (Sega)
Week 51
2009 (17/12/09)
[WII] Minna ga Shuyaku no NHK Kouhaku Quiz Kassen (Nintendo)
[WII] Need for Speed: Nitro (Electronic Arts Victor)
[WII] F1 2009 (Codemasters)
[WII] Mobile Suit Gundam: MS Front 0079 (Gundam 30th Anniversary Collection) (Namco Bandai)
2008 (18/12/08)
[WII] Karaoke Joysound Wii (Hudson)
[WII] Bleach: Versus Crusade (Sega)
[WII] Sonic Unleashed (Sega)
[WII] Let's Tap (Sega)
[WII] Dance Dance Revolution: Hottest Party 2 (Konami)
[WII] Disney Think Fast (Disney Interactive)
[WII] Need for Speed: Undercover (Electronic Arts Victor)
Week 52
2009 (24/12/09)
[WII] -
2008 (25/12/08)
[WII] New Play Control! Pikmin (Nintendo)
[WII] Resident Evil (Capcom)
Last year was a joke for Wii.
test_account
XP-39C²
Do you mean percentage drop from the first week to the 2nd week or the percentage increase from the first day to the first week? Here is the first day numbers to first week numbers at least with the percentage increaseJokeropia said:
Halo 3: 45,000 to 61,143 = 35.9%
Grand Theft Auto 4 (PS3 version): 77,000 to 122,058 = 58.5%
Little Big Planet: 30,000 to 47,086 = 56.9%
Killzone 2: 20,000 to 43,028 = 115.1%
Gears of War 2: 37,000 to 47,934 = 29.5%
(Fun fact: GTA 4 and LBP were released on the same day and they both had almost the same percentage increase
).Hopefully i have calculated correctly, but please correct me if i have done some mistake(s).
The reason why i was mostly interested in knowing how 8k compared to other western games instead of knowing the percentage increase is because percentage increase alone can sometimes not always be that "accurate" (or what i shall say). For example, NBA2K 10 (the PS3 version) sold 1,700 the first day and 3,300 the first week. That is an increase of about 94.1%. Ucharted 2's increase was about 17%. Looking at the percentage only and not the sales numbers it might give an impression that NBA2K 10 sold better than Uncharted 2. NBA2K 10 did have a better percentage increase, but Uncharted 2 sold 6,400 copies more than NBA2K 10. This isnt a huge difference though, but it is still more
Therefor i thought that looking at how many copies that were sold instead of looking at the percentage increase might have given me a better picture on how 8k copies sold from the first day sales to the first week sales compared to how other western games sold in Japan
EDIT: I had calculated the percentages wrong, but i have fixed it now.
charlequin
Banned
kswiston said:
I'm not sure anyone credible is certain that it alone will have a large and long-lasting impact on hardware sales, but I really have to ask what, exactly, constitutes a potential system seller if not NSMB. It's in one of the most consistently huge series/subseries (original 2D Mario games) of all time, it appeals to a market that is clearly not really tapped on the Wii yet, it's got a huge marketing push, a vast nostalgia hook, it's the sequel to the ludicrously successful DS title that people are still buying, etc. Discounting this game's ability to bolster interest in the hardware is pretty close to saying that everyone who will ever want a Wii has already bought one and Nintendo might as well pack it in.
It wasn't really that hard in foresight, either. It was really, really clear how little actual content was added to it compared to the DS version.
schuelma said:
Yep, I pretty much agree with this. Expecting Wii to drop to 350k for the month is pretty wild. This December is basically the Wii's best software period since like 2007.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
king zell said:
It all depends what the actual final combined FF7 number was and if you count combined SKUs for stuff like Ultimate Hits and if you count manufacturer's shipments for older generations. I always saw FF7 reported as "4,000,000" but obviously it's not that exact number on the dot.
It certainly /will/ be the best selling third party game ever when all is said and done.
Can any JGaffer's who've played the Japanese version of FIFA provide some insight as to why the game does terrible in comparison to Winning Eleven? Is the localization rushed and horrible for example?
We're all familiar with western games coming to Japan, getting fantastic scores in Famitsu, but being completely ignored. With this a lot of the time we can weakly point to the fact that many Japanese gamers don't like shooters or western styled games. With soccer though, there shouldn't be such an excuse.
The only thing I'm left with is:
a) Japanese game consumers are picking name brand over everything, no matter what magazines say.
b) The localization is terrible? (but Famitsu gave it 9/9/9/9 so how could the localization be terrible?!?!)
From this if I were a publisher I would almost not bother with Japan at all for any sort of game. It seems like consumers have a bias no matter how high quality your game is.
Are sneaky Sofmap employees hiding these games? I mean really.
We're all familiar with western games coming to Japan, getting fantastic scores in Famitsu, but being completely ignored. With this a lot of the time we can weakly point to the fact that many Japanese gamers don't like shooters or western styled games. With soccer though, there shouldn't be such an excuse.
The only thing I'm left with is:
a) Japanese game consumers are picking name brand over everything, no matter what magazines say.
b) The localization is terrible? (but Famitsu gave it 9/9/9/9 so how could the localization be terrible?!?!)
From this if I were a publisher I would almost not bother with Japan at all for any sort of game. It seems like consumers have a bias no matter how high quality your game is.
Are sneaky Sofmap employees hiding these games? I mean really.
That's what I meant.test_account said:Do you mean percentage drop from the first week to the 2nd week or the percentage increase from the first day to the first week? Here is the first day numbers to first week numbers at least with the percentage increase
Just like the impression I got, Uncharted 2's drop was on the high side.
Thanks for tracking down the data. The only error you've done as I can see (I won't go through all the numbers) is that you've calculated the percentages backwards. That is, instead of the percentages for how the first week sales are higher than the first day sales you have the percentages for how the first day sales were lower than the first week sales.test_account said:Halo 3: 45,000 to 61,143 = 26.4%
Grand Theft Auto 4 (PS3 version): 77,000 to 122,058 = 36.9%
Little Big Planet: 30,000 to 47,086 = 36.3%
Killzone 2: 20,000 to 43,028 = 53.5%
Gears of War 2: 37,000 to 47,934 = 22.8%
(Fun fact: GTA 4 and LBP were released on the same day and they both had almost the exact same percentage increase
Hopefully i have calculated correctly, but please correct me if i have done some mistake(s).
For example, Halo 3's increase from 45k to 61k was an increase of 35.6% rather than 26.4%. (45 * 1.356 = 61.)
No, but it does suggest that NBA2K 10 is less frontloaded than Uncharted 2. That's what the discussion originated from. It's like I said in my first post, the game still had a great first week compared to the original, but it just wasn't quite as great as the first day numbers hinted at.test_account said:
Tiktaalik said:
I never play football games but afaik FIFA series don't include both of Japanese national team and our domestic clubs. (I think you can confirm this?)
I know FIFA is now kicking WE, but how you can tell casuals buy this game w/o their local stars.
But... since Konami has exclusive contact with Japanese national team and clubs, it's not 100% EA's fault.
If EA could have these licenses and spread huge advertisements (I mean HUGE) on TV, things gonna change, but I doubt they will do.
WE have loooong history and well known, there are tons of casual people who buy WE as their "only one game in a year" for their PS2/3 and never notice other games. I feel same situation for GT and Forza.
I'll admit that I may be wrong about December Wii sales, but for now I'll stick to <400k for December. If sales end up being higher, that's great. To be clear, I don't think NSMB WII will fail to be a software seller. Right now, I am going to peg it at somewhere between SSBB and Mario Kart Wii in sales. I don't see 3 million units happening, but the title should have a good chance at clearing 2 million units.
I'll also stick to ~360k for PS3 in December. I think that FFXIII will lead the system to its biggest week ever, but the other three weeks in the month will be behind the Wii in sales.
The big question is whether Pokemon HG/SS overtakes DQIX for the year's top spot. Diamond/Pearl sold close to 700k in December 2006. If HG/SS sees similar December sales, and holds strong in the 6 weeks leading to December, it is going to be pretty close.
I'll also stick to ~360k for PS3 in December. I think that FFXIII will lead the system to its biggest week ever, but the other three weeks in the month will be behind the Wii in sales.
The big question is whether Pokemon HG/SS overtakes DQIX for the year's top spot. Diamond/Pearl sold close to 700k in December 2006. If HG/SS sees similar December sales, and holds strong in the 6 weeks leading to December, it is going to be pretty close.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Based on the latest Famitsu hardware numbers...
PSP comparisons: After 253 weeks, PSP is where PS2 was at 197.8 weeks (December 13, 2003), where DS was at 105.2 weeks (December 4, 2006), and where GBA was at 173.7 weeks (Juuly 16, 2004).
X360 comparisons: After 201 weeks, X360 is where GCN was at 20.2 weeks (January 28, 2002), where PS3 was at 42.0 weeks (August 26, 2007), and where Wii was at 6.1 weeks (January 8, 2007).
PS3 comparisons: After 153 weeks, PS3 is where PS2 was at 56.3 weeks (March 27, 2001), where PSP was at 84.0 weeks (July 16, 2006), where GCN was at 173.6 weeks (January 6, 2005), and where Wii was at 47.2 weeks (October 22, 2007).
Wii comparisons: After 150 weeks, Wii is where GBA was at 103.9 weeks (March 15, 2003), where DS was at 79.7 weeks (June 9, 2006), where PS2 was at 124.8 weeks (July 19, 2002), and where PSP was at 173.3 weeks (April 1, 2008).
DSi comparisons: After 50 weeks, DSi is where GBASP was at 71.0 weeks (June 20, 2004) and where DSL was at 24.1 weeks (August 14, 2006).
Based on last week's Media Create hardware numbers...
DS vs PSP: Weekly shares of 60.7 / 39.3 bring total shares to 68.4 / 31.6. If DS stopped selling and PSP continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 450.4 weeks (June 6, 2018).
X360 vs PS3: Weekly shares of 10.8 / 89.2 bring total shares to 23.8 / 76.2. If PS3 stopped selling and X360 continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 690.2 weeks (January 10, 2023).
PS3 vs Wii: Weekly shares of 50.2 / 49.8 bring total shares to 29.9 / 70.1. At this week's rates, PS3 would catch up to Wii in 18,523.3 weeks (October 20, 2364--ST:TNG Season 1). If Wii stopped selling and PS3 continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 163.0 weeks (December 2, 2012).
Week over week, the portables dip a bit, but the consoles each stay within a thousand of where they were last week.
Through the first forty-two weeks of the year, overall sales are down. However, the systems can be split into camps of 3 up and 3 down. Here's how the year-to-date year-over-year percents stand as of now.
Wii: -50.5%
DSL+DSi: +17.8%
PS2: -54.8%
PS3: +49.9%
PSP: -45.2%
X360: +48.0%
Home hardware: -25.6%
Portable hardware: -16.8%
Sum of all hardware: -20.2%
Note that with PS3's recent highs this year and X360's recent lows-compared-to-a-year-ago, PS3 is now the system with the most growth from last year.
Last year:
This year:
After 255 weeks, DS hits 28 million.
Famitsu Software Stuff
Last week, Pokémon Heart Gold and Soul Silver (3698) were about where FireRed and LeafGreen (1558) were after 10 months. Now they're about where FR/LG were after 2 years.
Wii Fit Plus (3719) appears to remain ahead of Wii Fit (2674), but it's a close thing.
Trying to make HG/SS's attempt to overtake FR/LG look slow, Inazuma Eleven 2 (3720) has overtaken the original (3159) in its second week.
It's not quite a Tomodachi, but Konami's Love Plus deserves a mention for legginess. It trended down through its fourth week but has bounced back. The last two weeks have been the biggest since launch week.
Ninja Gaiden Sigma 2 (3723) continues to follow Ninja Gaiden Sigma (22) pretty closely. Just a little behind.
Exciting news... Monster Hunter 3 has beaten Dynasty Warriors 5's last known number.
Relatedly, though in the past I've set up software groups games have to earn their way into (1+ million, 2+ million, etc.), I've now created a group games have the chance to earn themselves out of, >500K start, <1M finish.
Gran Turismo Portable (3721) does not seem to be one of those home<-->portable popularity transfer success stories. Its early performance is nowhere near the major home games, but around the lower Concepts and Prologues. This has been a series with fair legs, though.
PSP comparisons: After 253 weeks, PSP is where PS2 was at 197.8 weeks (December 13, 2003), where DS was at 105.2 weeks (December 4, 2006), and where GBA was at 173.7 weeks (Juuly 16, 2004).
X360 comparisons: After 201 weeks, X360 is where GCN was at 20.2 weeks (January 28, 2002), where PS3 was at 42.0 weeks (August 26, 2007), and where Wii was at 6.1 weeks (January 8, 2007).
PS3 comparisons: After 153 weeks, PS3 is where PS2 was at 56.3 weeks (March 27, 2001), where PSP was at 84.0 weeks (July 16, 2006), where GCN was at 173.6 weeks (January 6, 2005), and where Wii was at 47.2 weeks (October 22, 2007).
Wii comparisons: After 150 weeks, Wii is where GBA was at 103.9 weeks (March 15, 2003), where DS was at 79.7 weeks (June 9, 2006), where PS2 was at 124.8 weeks (July 19, 2002), and where PSP was at 173.3 weeks (April 1, 2008).
DSi comparisons: After 50 weeks, DSi is where GBASP was at 71.0 weeks (June 20, 2004) and where DSL was at 24.1 weeks (August 14, 2006).
Based on last week's Media Create hardware numbers...
DS vs PSP: Weekly shares of 60.7 / 39.3 bring total shares to 68.4 / 31.6. If DS stopped selling and PSP continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 450.4 weeks (June 6, 2018).
X360 vs PS3: Weekly shares of 10.8 / 89.2 bring total shares to 23.8 / 76.2. If PS3 stopped selling and X360 continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 690.2 weeks (January 10, 2023).
PS3 vs Wii: Weekly shares of 50.2 / 49.8 bring total shares to 29.9 / 70.1. At this week's rates, PS3 would catch up to Wii in 18,523.3 weeks (October 20, 2364--ST:TNG Season 1). If Wii stopped selling and PS3 continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 163.0 weeks (December 2, 2012).
Week over week, the portables dip a bit, but the consoles each stay within a thousand of where they were last week.
Through the first forty-two weeks of the year, overall sales are down. However, the systems can be split into camps of 3 up and 3 down. Here's how the year-to-date year-over-year percents stand as of now.
Wii: -50.5%
DSL+DSi: +17.8%
PS2: -54.8%
PS3: +49.9%
PSP: -45.2%
X360: +48.0%
Home hardware: -25.6%
Portable hardware: -16.8%
Sum of all hardware: -20.2%
Note that with PS3's recent highs this year and X360's recent lows-compared-to-a-year-ago, PS3 is now the system with the most growth from last year.
Last year:
This year:
After 255 weeks, DS hits 28 million.
Famitsu Software Stuff
Last week, Pokémon Heart Gold and Soul Silver (3698) were about where FireRed and LeafGreen (1558) were after 10 months. Now they're about where FR/LG were after 2 years.
Wii Fit Plus (3719) appears to remain ahead of Wii Fit (2674), but it's a close thing.
Trying to make HG/SS's attempt to overtake FR/LG look slow, Inazuma Eleven 2 (3720) has overtaken the original (3159) in its second week.
It's not quite a Tomodachi, but Konami's Love Plus deserves a mention for legginess. It trended down through its fourth week but has bounced back. The last two weeks have been the biggest since launch week.
Ninja Gaiden Sigma 2 (3723) continues to follow Ninja Gaiden Sigma (22) pretty closely. Just a little behind.
Exciting news... Monster Hunter 3 has beaten Dynasty Warriors 5's last known number.
Relatedly, though in the past I've set up software groups games have to earn their way into (1+ million, 2+ million, etc.), I've now created a group games have the chance to earn themselves out of, >500K start, <1M finish.
Gran Turismo Portable (3721) does not seem to be one of those home<-->portable popularity transfer success stories. Its early performance is nowhere near the major home games, but around the lower Concepts and Prologues. This has been a series with fair legs, though.
charlequin
Banned
onken said:
No, the DS and PSP were actually on sale last year too.
charlequin
Banned
onken said:
My point is actually serious, though: I don't think there's really any meaningful sense in which the Wii faces "competition" of a type that will directly peel off its sales this holiday season but did not in previous years.
You seperate gaming machines to home consoles and handhelds that don't compete to each other.onken said:
Everyone competes to everyone. DS remains the king. There is a stronger PS3 but also a weaker PSP (software and hardware wise) and a much weaker PS2 comparing to last year. I consider PSP a stronger competitor than PS3 (which is what the sales show) so I don't see how Wii has some competition this year and the previous years didn't have.