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Media Create Sales: Oct 19-25, 2009

duckroll

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JoshuaJSlone said:
It seems strange to me that this is the case in a land where the by-far biggest successes of the genre continue to be very much the series they were when they began 10+ (Pokémon) and 20+ (Dragon Quest) years ago. But clearly things don't seem to be panning out for 4WOL. Perhaps it is that they've got enough legitimately steeped-in-history series that there's not room for a faux-retro game that's not actually a continuation?
I believe the success of certain series have much more to do with the branding itself rather than the gameplay in particular. Pokemon and DQ are very identifiable in terms of their branding by the actual designs, across all forms of media. Akira Toriyama's trademark character and monster designs make DQ what it is, and people can identify with that. Just like how Pikachu makes Pokemon.

The problem with FF is that with their various spinoffs and new installments they have lost for the most part that sense of branding. There is no connection to have with 4WoL in terms of being a FF fan, so it can only be approached from the direction of being a JRPG fan. This also limits it's sales potential significantly. The game has no chocobos, no moogles, no summons, no character design similarities to any other FF, etc.

As far as marketing and branding goes, 4WoL is about as "FF" to the general public as The Spirits Within was. It's FF in name only. On the other hand, a title like FFV DS or FFTA3, would be not only easily seen as an actual FF branding title, but also be part of an established franchise which already has a larger fanbase waiting to eat it up.
 

schuelma

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AranhaHunter said:
There's no such evidence, I don't think you can find evidence for something that never happened, at best we can guesstimate and make some educated guesses. I don't think anyone is denying that MH3 is a success, whether or not that same amount of success and sales could've been reached on PS3 is debatable.

.

Ok, but when you have A- a game selling over 300K more than its previous console iteration B- on a system with a much bigger userbase than the PS3 and C- the PS3 is a system that has seen most PS2 franchises decline, I don't see how one can use the evidence we have and make any sort of reasonable argument that it would sell more on the PS3.


Edit- and where are you getting your Tales/Namco stuff? Has Namco stated they expect less sales?

And yeah, SW3 is going to do pretty poorly, and I definitely think that is a case where it would do better on the PS3 (if for no other reason than Koei has given the PS3 a lot more support for that genre of game).
 

onken

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schuelma said:
Oh bullshit.

First of all, please tell me you see the difference between PSP's local multiplayer and the Wii's.

Please.Second, people only "cooed" about Tri reaching 1 million easily after it became clear Capcom had shipped that much and it was clear that expectations were higher.

Two years ago when MH Tri was unveiled for the Wii, there was basically no one saying it would reach a million copies sold. I think the general best case scenario was that it might outdo the PS2 version, but that was it.

Do not confuse the high expectations that came up this July with the previous realistic expectations the title had for most of its development.
The fact that Capcom of all people (you know, the company that has a whole team of people dedicated to market analysis) overestimated speaks volumes (and this was after MHG). How do you think they reached that number? Their research and subsequent conclusion speaks louder than any forum posts.

MH Tri selling 930K and counting, shipping 1.1 million, and in Capcom's own words doing better with online subs than they thought is a success, period, and you have not presented one bit of evidence that it would sell better on the PS3.
There isn't any, of course. As I said earlier, we are ALL guessing. To hit similar numbers on PS3 would require an attach rate of just over a quarter. MGS4 shows that huge attach rates aren't impossible, but then again it could be all the MGS die hards bought PS3s just for MGS, that certainly could be the case. Most people predict FF13 to sell around 1.5m, that would be an attach rate of about 40%.

DMC4 and RE5 have comparatively poor attach rates. Is it a coincidence that both of those games are universally regarded as worse than their immediate predecessors? Maybe, maybe not. But let's face it, it's not completely beyond the realms of possibility. And this is my overall point. I'm not saying MH3 on PS3 would have definitely bettered or equalled sales on Wii. I'm not saying DQX on PS3 would definitely better or equal sales on Wii. All I'm saying is that it's not totally impossible.

Now leave me alone :(

edit-
AranhaHunter said:
I don't think anyone is denying that MH3 is a success, whether or not that same amount of success and sales could've been reached on PS3 is debatable.
Yes! Exactly! Debatable! Not impossible!
 

AranhaHunter

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schuelma said:
Ok, but when you have A- a game selling over 300K more than its previous console iteration B- on a system with a much bigger userbase than the PS3 and C- the PS3 is a system that has seen most PS2 franchises decline, I don't see how one can use the evidence we have and make any sort of reasonable argument that it would sell more on the PS3.


Edit- and where are you getting your Tales/Namco stuff? Has Namco stated they expect less sales?

And yeah, SW3 is going to do pretty poorly, and I definitely think that is a case where it would do better on the PS3 (if for no other reason than Koei has given the PS3 a lot more support for that genre of game).
To be fair Monster Hunter is a much bigger franchise nowadays than it was during the PS2 days, I don't think anyone can say otherwise. Like I said, I think MH3 would've sold similarly on PS3 if it had the same hype, advertising, bundles, etc but the budget would've been much higher also. Again it's debatable and I guess we'll never know :)

I'm pretty sure the Tales stuff was from Famitsu, IIRC they expected <300k sales, something like 200k-300k, I personally think Graces will do better than that though.
 

donny2112

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AranhaHunter said:
expecting Samurai Warriors 3 to sell significantly worse than its previous iterations.
  • The series was already on the decline.
  • Koei has done nothing intelligent to build a Musou fanbase on Wii (including the stupidly easy to do PS2 ports of Musou games).
 

schuelma

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onken said:
The fact that Capcom of all people (you know, the company that has a whole team of people dedicated to market analysis) overestimated speaks volumes (and this was after MHG). How do you think they reached that number? Their research and subsequent conclusion speaks louder than any forum posts.


First, its not just Capcom- its retailers ordering shipments. So while we can say Capcom slightly overestimated demand, so did retailers.

Second, you're acting like they overshipped by 500K or something. They probably overshipped by 150K or so (and I might add probably shipped too many standalones), but its not like we have 50% of stock remaining.

Lastly, Capcom's expectations are 2 million units shipped. They have 1.1M of that already. They will probably come close when they release it in the West. If it doesn't meet expectations, its going to come damn close.
 

schuelma

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AranhaHunter said:
I'm pretty sure the Tales stuff was from Famitsu, IIRC they expected <300k sales, something like 200k-300k, I personally think Graces will do better than that though.

Ahh gotcha. I don't put very much stock in that, and going off of preliminary data points (pre orders on the big online retailers) it should do very well.
 
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onken said:
Yes! Exactly! Debatable! Not impossible!
I think if it had been on the PS3 with decent online it could have sold nearly as well.

It would of cost them a shitload more money and it would of made porting the game to the PSP impossible.
 

onken

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schuelma said:
First, its not just Capcom- its retailers ordering shipments. So while we can say Capcom slightly overestimated demand, so did retailers.
My whole point was that it wasn't just Capcom overestimating, so I'm glad you agree.

Second, you're acting like they overshipped by 500K or something. They probably overshipped by 150K or so (and I might add probably shipped too many standalones), but its not like we have 50% of stock remaining.
Come on you know full well you don't send 3 months worth of shipment out at launch for a game with this pedigree. A 1.1m first shipment says to me "we expect this game to sell 1.5m+"

Lastly, Capcom's expectations are 2 million units shipped. They have 1.1M of that already. They will probably come close when they release it in the West. If it doesn't meet expectations, its going to come damn close.
Weren't those WW expectations made AFTER MH3's performance in Japan?
 
onken said:
My whole point was that it wasn't just Capcom overestimating, so I'm glad you agree.



Come on you know full well you don't send 3 months worth of shipment out at launch for a game with this pedigree. A 1.1m first shipment says to me "we expect this game to sell 1.5m+"



Weren't those WW expectations made AFTER MH3's performance in Japan?
Nope before, it's why people started expecting 1.5 for JP because the series is pretty dead in the US and EU
 

schuelma

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onken said:
Come on you know full well you don't send 3 months worth of shipment out at launch for a game with this pedigree. A 1.1m first shipment says to me "we expect this game to sell 1.5m+"

I'll concede that they probably expected another shipment..but do I think they were expecting 1.5M plus? No- or else their fiscal projection would have been higher.


onken said:
Weren't those WW expectations made AFTER MH3's performance in Japan?
I think those have been the expectations since well before it launched.
 

onken

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Firstly, my bad on the timings of those forecasts.

schuelma said:
I'll concede that they probably expected another shipment..but do I think they were expecting 1.5M plus? No- or else their fiscal projection would have been higher.
And still get to a 2m ww forecast? That's some serious western sales.
 

schuelma

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onken said:
And still get to a 2m ww forecast? That's some serious western sales.
Given what Capcom and Nintendo have said about the title, I think they will have enough clout with retailers to get a decent shipment (Capcom seems to excel at even their bombas getting decent shipments- see Bionic Commando).