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Media Create Sales: Oct 5-11, 2009

AniHawk

Member
Sohter.Nura said:
Yep.

I see both PS3 and Wii sales hitting the 10k very quickly again =X

Well, probably not too quickly. November+December and all the games they bring with it are just around the corner. Probably February/March for sure.
 

duckroll

Member
What's interesting to me is that Phantasy Star Portable is doing VERY poorly on budget re-release. It is a little more worrying if you factor in the fact that the Best release includes extra goodies, and a preview of PSP2. Could this be indicative that after the initial strong interest of the first game died down, that fans are not exactly clamoring for another entry in the series? It might also help to explain the poorer sales that PS Zero did on the DS. Could PSP2 turn out to be a flop this holiday season? I think it's possible.
 

onken

Member
AniHawk said:
Well, probably not too quickly. November+December and all the games they bring with it are just around the corner. Probably February/March for sure.

You know GT5 is coming out in March, right?
 

duckroll

Member
RgG4 could probably hit the PS3 in Feb. But considering it's the 3rd release of the franchise on the PS3, even if it sells well there probably won't be much of a hardware boost.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
onken said:
You know GT5 is coming out in March, right?
I'm not so sure for this. Sony gave as release date the last month of the fiscal year. Of course it can make it until March but with the game being completed just 60% I won't be surprised if it won't.

Famitsu
[PSP] Phantasy Star Portable (Sega) 31/07/08 - 329.455 / 633.954
[NDS] Phantasy Star 0 (Sega) 25/12/08 - 85.573 / 202.307

Famitsu estimate
[PSP] Phantasy Star Portable 2 (Sega) 03/12/09 - 190K-240K / 210K-400K
 

cvxfreak

Member
duckroll said:
What's interesting to me is that Phantasy Star Portable is doing VERY poorly on budget re-release. It is a little more worrying if you factor in the fact that the Best release includes extra goodies, and a preview of PSP2. Could this be indicative that after the initial strong interest of the first game died down, that fans are not exactly clamoring for another entry in the series? It might also help to explain the poorer sales that PS Zero did on the DS. Could PSP2 turn out to be a flop this holiday season? I think it's possible.

For a long time, the original SKU had been in the Bomba Bins as well, just like Zero. Phantasy Star Portable could very well be another Tamagotchi DS or something.

Speaking of budget re-releases... many quality PS3 games can be had at very low prices now thanks to the PS3 The Best lineup. Uncharted 1 for ¥2600 is a bargain. A price-conscious PS3 gamers can very well end up saving more money in the long run than someone who only buys a Wii, which has no standardized budget lineup yet.
 

Cygnus X-1

Member
3 december is still quite far away. I don't know if the wii will keep hanging around these numbers in the meantime.
And price-cut had no effect at all. As I thought, Wii's price is not relevant at all for the consumer.
 
duckroll said:
What's interesting to me is that Phantasy Star Portable is doing VERY poorly on budget re-release. It is a little more worrying if you factor in the fact that the Best release includes extra goodies, and a preview of PSP2. Could this be indicative that after the initial strong interest of the first game died down, that fans are not exactly clamoring for another entry in the series? It might also help to explain the poorer sales that PS Zero did on the DS. Could PSP2 turn out to be a flop this holiday season? I think it's possible.

It might simply be a case of no-one wanting to play the first one until the sequel hits. PSP2 probably won't bring in many more new areas and enemies, so people will probably just wait for it rather than playing the same basic game twice. I know I stopped playing PSP1 pretty early on, and now the sequel announcement means I certainly cannot be assed playing it again until then.
 

onken

Member
AniHawk said:
February for sure.

You know SO4I is out on Feb 4th, right?

Chris1964 said:
I'm not so sure for this. Sony gave as release date the last month of the fiscal year. Of course it can make it until March but with the game being completed just 60% I won't be surprised if it won't.

I believe the March date far more than I do some arbitrary number like "game completion". Hell, they've been working on it 6 years so it won't come out till 2013 by that logic!
 

Road

Member
For Joshua when he sees it: Is there any particular reason for Ar Tonelico 2 having a weird name on your database? Thanks in advance.

I was looking at the series sales to see how helpful they could be for the PS3 in January, but they're just another niche series selling almost 100k (original releases).

I don't see how it would be in Sony's best interest having RGG4 coming in Feb or Mar. Space out the big releases. If there's anything we've learned this generation is that PS3 (well, any one) can go downhill fast without any big game in the horizon.

Also, COD4 PS3 keeps trucking along. Bodes well for MW2. Could it beat Halo 3 opening week (61k) this December?
 
duckroll said:
What's interesting to me is that Phantasy Star Portable is doing VERY poorly on budget re-release. It is a little more worrying if you factor in the fact that the Best release includes extra goodies, and a preview of PSP2. Could this be indicative that after the initial strong interest of the first game died down, that fans are not exactly clamoring for another entry in the series? It might also help to explain the poorer sales that PS Zero did on the DS. Could PSP2 turn out to be a flop this holiday season? I think it's possible.
A budget re-release doing 3k in its first week is a...pretty good number. I don't get why you would expect it to do better...if PSP2 interest is low this isn't indicating that.
 

duckroll

Member
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
A budget re-release doing 3k in its first week is a...pretty good number. I don't get why you would expect it to do better...if PSP2 interest is low this isn't indicating that.

Really? What about Monster Hunter Portable re-releases? Or Ryu ga Gotoku re-releases?
 
duckroll said:
Really? What about Monster Hunter Portable re-releases? Or Ryu ga Gotoku re-releases?
MHP did 12,314
MHP reprint didn't even debut in the top30, and still made >150k LTD
MHP2 didn't have a re-release
MHP2G did 19,289 and its now over a million
Yakuza 1 did 33,012 and it did 484k
Yakuza 2 did 17,659 and it did >200k
Kenzan or Yakuza 1 reprint didn't even chart and both did ~50k

Hell, DQ5 and DQ8 PS2 re-releases didn't chart. FFX did 8,681, and a reprint did 4,702, both did nearly 200k LTD.

Mingol 3 did 4,364 (over 300k LTD), Mingol 4 did 4,638 (over 200k) and a reprint at 4,616 (near 400k ltd), Mingol Portable did 7,855 (270k ltd), Mingol 5 didn't chart and it has done near 100k last time we saw it.
 

duckroll

Member
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
MHP did 12,314
MHP reprint didn't even debut in the top30, and still made >150k LTD
MHP2 didn't have a re-release
MHP2G did 19,289 and its now over a million
Yakuza 1 did 33,012 and it did 484k
Yakuza 2 did 17,659 and it did >200k
Kenzan or Yakuza 1 reprint didn't even chart and both did ~50k

Hell, DQ5 and DQ8 PS2 re-releases didn't chart. FFX did 8,681, and a reprint did 4,702, both did nearly 200k LTD.

Mingol 3 did 4,364 (over 300k LTD), Mingol 4 did 4,638 (over 200k) and a reprint at 4,616 (near 400k ltd), Mingol Portable did 7,855 (270k ltd), Mingol 5 didn't chart and it has done near 100k last time we saw it.

That's interesting. So even with a starting week of 4k, PSP could still end up pulling 100-200k if people keep buying the cheapo version for months. I guess there's nothing conclusive to draw from that at all then, until we get the top500 for 2009 at least. Thanks.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
So next week might be MH Tri's last week in the top 30. Should leave it at 924K or so. Don't think it will make it to a million by the end of the year, but probably sometime next Spring.
 

cvxfreak

Member
schuelma said:
So next week might be MH Tri's last week in the top 30. Should leave it at 924K or so. Don't think it will make it to a million by the end of the year, but probably sometime next Spring.

The other console Monster Hunters except for MHG Wii, plus Dynasty Warriors 5, sold around 30K between their last Top 30 appearance and the year-end period, as reflected in the relevant Top 100s. The time periods are different, but MH3 is obviously bigger than the other games.

That would leave MH3 at between 950K and 960K. Of course, given that the series has legs, I really don't think next week will be its last in the top 30. I think it has another three weeks left myself, at least on MC's chart.
 
cvxfreak said:
The other console Monster Hunters except for MHG Wii, plus Dynasty Warriors 5, sold around 30K between their last Top 30 appearance and the year-end period, as reflected in the relevant Top 100s. The time periods are different, but MH3 is obviously bigger than the other games.

That would leave MH3 at between 950K and 960K. Of course, given that the series has legs, I really don't think next week will be its last in the top 30. I think it has another three weeks left myself, at least on MC's chart.

I reckon it's just going to manage it, although it's going to be a grind for that last 30k or so. I think 1 million by the New Year is a lock, and I'm interested to see whether Capcom will release a MH Tri The Best edition and how far that can take the game.
 
AFreak said:
They aren't forgetting? Then without adequate information you can't really say its an out and out disappointment. if it has 150k DLs then that makes it a lote more respectable in the sales count(except that console Gts sell truckloads more than that).

Japanese people do not have computers and the internet at home. If Sony had sold 150 000 units of GT via PSN, you can be sure they'd be shouting about it from the rooftops. In the end, Digital Distribution in Japan is a going to be a minority thing without clear numbers.

If people are going to go on about the "DD sales" they're going to get banned, because we don't have any numbers, and their likelihood of being strong without some sort of PR boost is extremely small.
 

Dra-Q

Banned
Dragona Akehi said:
Japanese people do not have computers and the internet at home. If Sony had sold 150 000 units of GT via PSN, you can be sure they'd be shouting about it from the rooftops. In the end, Digital Distribution in Japan is a going to be a minority thing without clear numbers.

If people are going to go on about the "DD sales" they're going to get banned, because we don't have any numbers, and their likelihood of being strong without some sort of PR boost is extremely small.

Are there no DD-stations at the game stores? Would make sense that you can take your PSP/Go to a shop and load it on the machine.
 

Laguna

Banned
The question is can you download GTp from PSN in Japan or was it postponed due to the PSPgo release on 1st Nov?
 

duckroll

Member
I'll also add to say that with the PSP Go not launched in Japan yet, anyone with a current PSP who does not already own a PS3 is very unlikely to have a PSN account. Unless they have purchased a game previously which used PSN for DLC (for example Prinny, or Hatsune Miku), it is not likely that they would have bothered.

There are a lot of factors to look at, and it's not like we're trying to put down DD sales or anything, but being realistic about it given the nature of the market and the factors presented, there is really no reason to believe at all that a significant number of sales are being made over DD. Especially if you look at it from a % sold point of view, if 50% of the sales are generated from PSN alone, is anyone suggesting that Sony would not want to report that just to boost confidence from investors?

Laguna said:
The question is can you download GTp from PSN in Japan or was it postponed due to the PSPgo release on 1st Nov?

Yes you can. It was released day and date.

Dra-Q said:
Are there no DD-stations at the game stores? Would make sense that you can take your PSP/Go to a shop and load it on the machine.

Nope.
 

onken

Member
gkrykewy said:
You seem to take this stuff very seriously lately. Talking down NSMB potential, defending PS3 HW projections...

Ah the taking things too seriously line, I really thought sales-age GAF was above this sort of thing :lol

Dragona Akehi said:
Japanese people do not have computers and the internet at home. If Sony had sold 150 000 units of GT via PSN, you can be sure they'd be shouting about it from the rooftops. In the end, Digital Distribution in Japan is a going to be a minority thing without clear numbers.

Agree 100%
 

Gravijah

Member
Dra-Q said:
Are there no DD-stations at the game stores? Would make sense that you can take your PSP/Go to a shop and load it on the machine.

What are the chances someone without a PSPGo buys the DD version of a game at a store instead of the disc version? Average hypothetical person, mind you, not Japan's NeoGAF-browsing-equivalent.

Edit: I'm aware they don't exist, but if they did.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
cvxfreak said:
The other console Monster Hunters except for MHG Wii, plus Dynasty Warriors 5, sold around 30K between their last Top 30 appearance and the year-end period, as reflected in the relevant Top 100s. The time periods are different, but MH3 is obviously bigger than the other games.

That would leave MH3 at between 950K and 960K. Of course, given that the series has legs, I really don't think next week will be its last in the top 30. I think it has another three weeks left myself, at least on MC's chart.

Yeah I think it will probably be higher than 950-960K at the end of the year..its showing better legs than I thought and I imagine it will sell ok in the holiday months, even if it isn't charting.
 

onken

Member
gkrykewy said:
I'm not aware that this is a line, but okay.

Believe me, it's very common among people that have no real argument but want to take a general swipe at somebody.

If you want to actually have a real discussion about my NSMB or PS3 hardware sales in Feb predictions then I'm very happy to do that.
 

duckroll

Member
Gravijah said:
What are the chances someone without a PSPGo buys the DD version of a game at a store instead of the disc version? Average hypothetical person, mind you, not Japan's NeoGAF-browsing-equivalent.

Edit: I'm aware they don't exist, but if they did.

I guess that depends on a lot of factors? Would this just be the store charging you to buy over PSN using their "account"? Or would it be the store itself selling it into your PSP directly? Because the second example is impossible, and will never happen. It is also the only example which would allow a store to set prices on games like they do for retail software, and give an incentive for someone to buy it rather than over PSN.
 

cvxfreak

Member
It's true though. Japan's household internet numbers aren't as high as some might expect.

I mean, you can get a PS3 Slim for ¥10,000 by signing up for an internet plan with one of the various providers. A Wii might even be free with them now.
 

Gravijah

Member
duckroll said:
I guess that depends on a lot of factors? Would this just be the store charging you to buy over PSN using their "account"? Or would it be the store itself selling it into your PSP directly? Because the second example is impossible, and will never happen. It is also the only example which would allow a store to set prices on games like they do for retail software, and give an incentive for someone to buy it rather than over PSN.

I was thinking more of a Sony kiosk where you plug your PSP in and can browse through games to buy, but honestly, the more I think about it the more I realize the entire idea is stupid and not feasible at ALL. If you have a Go, you (should) already have some way of buying games. If you have a regular ol' PSP, most consumers are going to go for the disc version.
 

onken

Member
cvxfreak said:
It's true though. Japan's household internet numbers aren't as high as some might expect.

Criminal when you consider that you can get a 50mb fibre connection without breaking a sweat.
 

ccbfan

Member
Tenbatsu said:
Lets say from the 920000:

20% don't go online = 184000
10% finish the game within the 1 month free trial = 92000
For the rest of the 70% , a month subscription will be $6 million already. Ok minus 1 million for maintenance cost = $5million still....$_$


Dragona Akehi said:
Japanese people do not have computers and the internet at home. If Sony had sold 150 000 units of GT via PSN, you can be sure they'd be shouting about it from the rooftops. In the end, Digital Distribution in Japan is a going to be a minority thing without clear numbers.

If people are going to go on about the "DD sales" they're going to get banned, because we don't have any numbers, and their likelihood of being strong without some sort of PR boost is extremely small.


LOL I love the double standard in this topic.

When MH3 online subs are mentioned 70% of MH3 users are paying a monthly subscription to play online, so it means massive profits for Capcom.

When PSP download sales are mentioned its. Few in Japan now has an internet connection so it mean minute dd sales for the PSP.

Its either one or the other people. Dragona is probably right here. Probably less than 20 percent of people with MH3 is paying for subscription and PSP DD sales are minute.
 

Gravijah

Member
ccbfan said:
LOL I love the double standard in this topic.

When MH3 online subs are mentioned 70% of MH3 users are paying a monthly subscription to play online, so it means massive profits for Capcom.

When PSP download sales are mentioned its. Few in Japan now has an internet connection so it mean minute dd sales for the PSP.

Its either one or the other people. Dragona is probably right here. Probably less than 20 percent of people with MH3 is paying for subscription and PSP DD sales are minute.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=18043532&postcount=30
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=18043547&postcount=31

People pointed out those numbers were way exaggerated, no double standard.
 
ccbfan said:
LOL I love the double standard in this topic.

When MH3 online subs are mentioned 70% of MH3 users are paying a monthly subscription to play online, so it means massive profits for Capcom.

When PSP download sales are mentioned its. Few in Japan now has an internet connection so it mean minute dd sales for the PSP.

Its either one or the other people. Dragona is probably right here. Probably less than 20 percent of people with MH3 is paying for subscription and PSP DD sales are minute.

What double standard?

That's perhaps the first time anyone has suggested MH Tri sub rates are that high, and the poster was challenged by other posters for estimating the rate at that level. The PSP DD thing has been going for a few weeks now and it certainly should be stomped on because suggesting that unknowable figures must lift a game from "bomba" or "decent" performance adds nothing to the discussion.

If there was a constant trickle of comments about sub rates, you can be sure that it wouldn't be tolerated either.
 
I saw a lot of GTP in the used shops last weekend. To me, that points to a title whose sales are declining because of consumer disappointment as opposed to people clamouring to buy it online.

The used business in Japan is another compelling reason to think DD sales won't be very strong, as well. Because there aren't any rentals allowed in Japan, games turn over really, really fucking fast here, and you will sometimes get almost what you paid for the game even a week after it comes out.

So if I'm a game buyer in Japan (oh hey, I am!), do I want to roll the dice and pay near full price for a DD version I can do nothing with if I don't like it/am finished with it, or do I want to buy a physical copy I can turn around next week for full price less 1000 yen? This is one of those really easy decisions that pretty much all but the most stupid make the right choice on.
 

gkryhewy

Member
onken said:
Believe me, it's very common among people that have no real argument but want to take a general swipe at somebody.

If you want to actually have a real discussion about my NSMB or PS3 hardware sales in Feb predictions then I'm very happy to do that.

Fair point, and I didn't mean it that way. It just seemed as if you'd suddenly gotten strident out of the blue on this stuff (even being baited by Anihawk silliness), but perhaps I'm misreading you.
 
obonicus said:
Didn't cellphone games do decently, though?
Cell phone games do alright but they don't require an internet connection, are not available in physical format, and are often broken up into bite-sized low-priced chunks and/or subscription services.
 

cvxfreak

Member
Segata Sanshiro said:
I saw a lot of GTP in the used shops last weekend. To me, that points to a title whose sales are declining because of consumer disappointment as opposed to people clamouring to buy it online.

The used business in Japan is another compelling reason to think DD sales won't be very strong, as well. Because there aren't any rentals allowed in Japan, games turn over really, really fucking fast here, and you will sometimes get almost what you paid for the game even a week after it comes out.

So if I'm a game buyer in Japan (oh hey, I am!), do I want to roll the dice and pay near full price for a DD version I can do nothing with if I don't like it/am finished with it, or do I want to buy a physical copy I can turn around next week for full price less 1000 yen? This is one of those really easy decisions that pretty much all but the most stupid make the right choice on.

This is being requoted because it's so fucking true.

I intend to buy three PSP games for my PSP Go. Two of them are games I sold as UMD in preparation for the Go, and the other is Biohazard Portable, for obvious reasons.

If I ever wanna buy another PSP game, I sure as hell will get the UMD and make sure I love it before selling it off in favor of DD.
 
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