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Media Create Sales: Week 12, 2012 (Mar 19 - Mar 25)

Sammy Samusu

Member
Aug 3, 2009
19,285
1
0
Moga Village
Yeah, Nintendo is taking too damn long to release some casual games. Maybe waiting for 3DS redesign?

Where's Girl Mode, Animal Crossing, Tomodachi? These shouldn't be released close to each other, but Nintendo won't hold a finished game for too long.

Very strange.
Animal Crossing Wii U x 3DS? Lordt.
 

matmanx1

Member
Apr 30, 2008
7,133
0
0
Ga
My completely baseless other than gut feeling prediction for DDD first week is 350-400k. I think it's sales are going to be canabalized a little bit by the other great titles that have launched recently. Just a feeling so of course I could be way off.
 

frankie_baby

Member
May 3, 2007
18,401
0
0
Yeah, Nintendo is taking too damn long to release some casual games. Maybe waiting for 3DS redesign?

Where's Girl Mode, Animal Crossing, Tomodachi? These shouldn't be released close to each other, but Nintendo won't hold a finished game for too long.

Very strange.
Animal Crossing Wii U x 3DS? Lordt.
Casual hits need at least some level of userbase to exist first though, we've got animal crossing and oni training coming this year at least
 
Mar 4, 2009
3,617
0
0
Pescara, Italy
It wouldn't be unprecedented. The original on Wii did around 5k in its first week.
Actually I reckon it may easily sell more than Wii's original game, if only as there aren't that many new releases on Vita in this period and early adopters may want perhaps to give it a try, in a similar way to 3DS's early stage, when some games - e.g. SF4 - performed quite better than they would have done now.
 
Mar 10, 2005
50,827
0
0
www.theimrankhan.com
Yeah, Nintendo is taking too damn long to release some casual games. Maybe waiting for 3DS redesign?

Where's Girl Mode, Animal Crossing, Tomodachi? These shouldn't be released close to each other, but Nintendo won't hold a finished game for too long.

Very strange.
Animal Crossing Wii U x 3DS? Lordt.
AC was announced for summer, I believe? So should be soon.
 

slaughterking

Member
Jun 4, 2006
10,628
0
0
twitter.com
The Vita version is published by Konami this time and has some aesthetic changes to appeal to a wider (or just different) audience. I think it should do better than the Wii version. I mean its virtually impossible to do worse than the Wii game anyway.
 

Nekki

Member
Aug 31, 2011
1,500
0
570
Ahh second again in predictions.. lol it's fun. One question i was wondering about... What is the viability of [Best] or [The Best] -and similar reprints- when it comes to cartridges?? It seems quite a good strategy with discs since they're cheap to begin with, but cartridges are not and the production is more difficult.

On a side note i'm expecting KH to open with around 325k, though hopefully it's more.
 

saichi

Member
Apr 8, 2010
2,736
0
0
My thought on all these KH discussion -

It's not gonna back to be million selling title again any time soon. As long as it sells between 500K-800K, it's performing inline with expectation.


Meanwhile as bad as sales are PSV is going to be 1 milion units at end of year as bare minimum and more likely 1,5-2 milions.
even with 1.5-2 million by the end of this year, it would be terrible for a handheld in Japan.

PSO2 is free to play, also free to download, and that most likely include the Vita version too. There might be a retail version as well, but the sales numbers wont mean much when you can download it for free.
and there goes any chance PSO2 to be a system seller for VITA. It's hard to think a lot of people would buy VITA just to get PSO2 and play it instead of getting the free version on platform.

New LKS is out this week? Wow. I fear it will sell nothing.
I wasn't aware it's coming out this week either. Good thing I already expected it to sell nothing.
 

Cipherr

Member
Dec 15, 2007
28,083
0
1,025
Kansas City Missouri
and there goes any chance PSO2 to be a system seller for VITA. It's hard to think a lot of people would buy VITA just to get PSO2 and play it instead of getting the free version on platform.

Its sad but that was my second thought when I saw the announcement of f2P and the platform listings also. First thought was "Please let the PC version be Steamworks, and please let the PC be the leading platform and not a lazy port" and second was "There's goes any shot of this giving Vita a large sustained shot in the arm".


E3 had better be gargantuan.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Mar 22, 2007
23,613
2
1,130
and there goes any chance PSO2 to be a system seller for VITA. It's hard to think a lot of people would buy VITA just to get PSO2 and play it instead of getting the free version on platform.
Free version on Vita too i assume. And it is the only portable version that looks like it does, the Android and iOS version look very different as far as i know.


E3 had better be gargantuan.
I think that it is doubtful that there will be many japanese games announced at E3.
 
Hadn't looked at a Mario Kart series comparison in a while.

Looks like Mario Kart 7 (black line) has fallen slightly behind Mario Kart Wii (blue line). At a similar age MKWii was selling a few thousand more per week.

Not unakin to the 3DS right now, but I assume the scale of KABOOM!! - proportional to other system sales - is smaller?
DS's first 52 weeks ("Okay"):


DS's second 52 weeks, same scale ("KABOOM!!")

This period ends immediately before Wii starts being listed.

EDIT: Same scale again, 3DS's first 52 weeks.
 

saichi

Member
Apr 8, 2010
2,736
0
0
Free version on Vita too i assume.
That's my point though. People would not rush out to buy VITA because they can get PSO2 for free while it's also free on other platforms.

The way I see freemium games work is they thrive in existing user base. I don't think any one buys a new Android device because they can get Angry Bird for free. It's after they already made the purchases of the hardware and it's nice to have the free games.

Use an extreme example - back in the days, I don't think a lot of people to create a new Facebook account just to play Farmville or Mafia Wars and there is no cost to create an account.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Mar 22, 2007
23,613
2
1,130
That's my point though. People would not rush out to buy VITA because they can get PSO2 for free while it's also free on other platforms.

The way I see freemium games work is they thrive in existing user base. I don't think any one buys a new Android device because they can get Angry Bird for free. It's after they already made the purchases of the hardware and it's nice to have the free games.

Use an extreme example - back in the days, I don't think a lot of people to create a new Facebook account just to play Farmville or Mafia Wars and there is no cost to create an account.
I edited my post a bit. The Vita version is the only portable platform that has the game in that current state. Otherwise you're stuck with the PC version. And that would be the same regardless if it was free-to-play or not, since then people also had a choice to buy either the PC version or the Vita version (and a lot more people already own a PC). So it comes down to which platform people prefer to play it on :)

PSO games have never been mega sellers anyway, but i dont think that the free-to-play model hurts the success potential much, if anything at all.
 

nickcv

Member
Oct 14, 2007
4,051
0
0
Hadn't looked at a Mario Kart series comparison in a while.

Looks like Mario Kart 7 (black line) has fallen slightly behind Mario Kart Wii (blue line). At a similar age MKWii was selling a few thousand more per week.



DS's first 52 weeks ("Okay"):


DS's second 52 weeks, same scale ("KABOOM!!")

This period ends immediately before Wii starts being listed.

EDIT: Same scale again, 3DS's first 52 weeks.
really impressive the 3DS, and the psp is still holding well...

horrible performance for psv compared to the psp... :(
 

muu

Member
Mar 20, 2011
3,343
0
495
The one thing that a console release does is reduce the barrier to entry. That's possibly good for the game, but I don't believe there's been an example of that helping out the console itself. Granted there's only a few examples of this we could reference, but we have Monster Hunter Frontier which has had Capcom speak out as being extremely profitable on the 360. We saw an initial sales spike, but nothing that lasted, and this is for one of the biggest MOs in Japan.

It'll be interesting to see if portability would give it any sort of boost, but I wouldn't count on it. I believe 3G support is already out of the question which makes it WiFi limited; being limited to hotspots I can't see the convenience factor within Japan as much better than finding an internet cafe.
 

Hero

Member
Jun 6, 2004
14,960
2
1,360
I would expect KH to at least match BbS first week sales.

Considering Vita has no decent releases and almost no games in the top 30 outside some sporadic title.....it's impressive it keeps selling above 10k.
So it's impressive that the Vita is selling about 10K? What kind of numbers would they have to get to for you to think it's disappointing?
 

Dalthien

Member
Jun 1, 2005
2,159
0
0
It doesn't even matter what DDD sells in Japan because unlike BBS, it will actually be on a platform that can sell copies in the west so the worldwide numbers will destroy BBS.
Obviously, the Japan numbers matter, but they are just a piece of the picture. People seem to forget that 358/2 outsold BbS worldwide, despite being an inferior effort, and despite selling considerably less in Japan.

Kingdom Hearts is a global series, but BbS ended up selling more than half of its worldwide total in Japan. 358/2 sold about 1/3 of its worldwide total in Japan. I have no doubt that's why the decision was made early on to place the next handheld entry on a Nintendo system. Sony's handheld just didn't carry to a worldwide audience.
 
So I was wondering what the last DS game to start bigger than Pokémon + Nobunaga was. Looks like it was the last Inazuma Eleven 3 back in December 2010. Among 2011 releases, DQ Monsters Joker 2 Professional comes the closest.


MGS3 3D is putting up numbers slightly lower than Twin Snakes.
 

Cookie18

Member
Dec 24, 2011
1,666
0
0
South Korea
I'm glad Kid Icarus has done well, I wasn't expecting it to.

The Vita is really trying to hold above that 10k mark lol, I suppose being consistent is something? Consistently doing 50k would be nice though :/
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
Impressions from retailers talk for high demand for KH3D bundle, good opening but obviously lower than BBS.

PS3 version of Pro Baseball Spirits 2012 beats comfortable the PSP and PSV ones, PS3 up and PSP down comparing to last year.
 

saichi

Member
Apr 8, 2010
2,736
0
0
So it's impressive that the Vita is selling about 10K? What kind of numbers would they have to get to for you to think it's disappointing?
Looking back, 3DS was super impressive when it was selling twice as many units as VITA now 3 months after launch with no games and overpriced for a gimmick revision of DS.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Mar 22, 2007
23,613
2
1,130
Impressions from retailers talk for high demand for KH3D bundle, good opening but obviously lower than BBS.

PS3 version of Pro Baseball Spirits 2012 beats comfortable the PSP and PSV ones, PS3 up and PSP down comparing to last year.
Makes sense that the PSP version is down now that the Vita version also excist. I wonder what the split will be between the platforms.
 

Cygnus X-1

Member
Mar 7, 2007
4,613
5
895
So it's impressive that the Vita is selling about 10K? What kind of numbers would they have to get to for you to think it's disappointing?
More importantly, you missed my implication. That is, Vita following the same steps of PSP.

Dunno if you remember, but when DS started to explode in Japan, back in 2005, PSP kept selling in the shadows till a certain title names Monster Hunter came out.
Sure, PSP back had more games and its hardware sales were better, but the principle still holds. At that time, so many people were surprised PSP was selling so well "with no games". It became a meme at that time and most people gave as reasons its additional video and music capabilities.

Shortly, my reasoning is very simple. If Vita keeps selling 10k with such an extremely poor line-up, well, I wonder what will happen when some significant release will come out. Chances of the system to become an important player in the future is high. Even with so little gaming outlook. It's based on the past and current trends and thus it is a likely scenario.

That's why I'm surprised it keeps selling above 10k. It's a good surprise. They system is able to survive like that in the emptiness; it will absorb PSP's market once the games will be there.
 

Green Slime

Banned
Nov 13, 2011
6,585
2
0
That's why I'm surprised it keeps selling above 10k. It's a good surprise. They system is able to survive like that in the emptiness; it will absorb PSP's market once the games will be there.
A lot wrong here:

1.) It's not selling as well as PSP did early on. Heck, the 3DS, with NOTHING coming out, did much better just last year.

2.) More and more games are being announced for 3DS and even PSP, but not Vita.

3.) The system isn't "surviving". It's tanking really hard, with no software announced to correct the ship's course.
 

liger05

Member
Sep 5, 2009
4,288
0
0
More importantly, you missed my implication. That is, Vita following the same steps of PSP.

Dunno if you remember, but when DS started to explode in Japan, back in 2005, PSP kept selling in the shadows till a certain title names Monster Hunter came out.
Sure, PSP back had more games and its hardware sales were better, but the principle still holds. At that time, so many people were surprised PSP was selling so well "with no games". It became a meme at that time and most people gave as reasons its additional video and music capabilities.

Shortly, my reasoning is very simple. If Vita keeps selling 10k with such an extremely poor line-up, well, I wonder what will happen when some significant release will come out. Chances of the system to become an important player in the future is high. Even with so little gaming outlook. It's based on the past and current trends and thus it is a likely scenario.

That's why I'm surprised it keeps selling above 10k. It's a good surprise. They system is able to survive like that in the emptiness; it will absorb PSP's market once the games will be there.
Way too optimistic. 10k blows simple as that and no amount of spin changes that. The 3DS went through a spell with no games and it was never this bad. The vita wasnt even that hot out of the gate and I really dont think there is much similarity with the PSP sales.
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
Sep 9, 2006
27,410
2
0
Even Wii sells 10k a week - it doesn't mean much since the plattform is pretty much dead. For a handheld you would expect better sales though ....
 

Green Slime

Banned
Nov 13, 2011
6,585
2
0
Even Wii sells 10k a week - it doesn't mean much since the plattform is pretty much dead. For a handheld you would expect better sales though ....
Not just a handheld, but a brand new handheld on the market that is also the successor to a fairly successful system.
 

Erethian

Member
Jan 20, 2010
3,253
0
0
Not just a handheld, but a brand new handheld on the market that is also the successor to a fairly successful system.
The precipitous nature of the drop in hardware sales has probably been the most concerning thing about Vita.

Not just that it dropped to 10k a week, but how quickly it got there. And it's unlikely the system has found its floor just yet, much like how it would have been wrong to say in March of '07 that the PS3's floor was 20k a week.
 

matmanx1

Member
Apr 30, 2008
7,133
0
0
Ga
No UMD BC really kills the Vita for alot of people in Japan, I imagine. With the 3DS launch folks could jump in and even if there wasn't a 3DS game that they really wanted they could still play their DS carts on it (which is exactly what I did for most of 2011). You can't do that with a Vita unless you've been downloading PSP games all along and that doesn't seem to be a very popular option in Japan.
 

nickcv

Member
Oct 14, 2007
4,051
0
0
More importantly, you missed my implication. That is, Vita following the same steps of PSP.

Dunno if you remember, but when DS started to explode in Japan, back in 2005, PSP kept selling in the shadows till a certain title names Monster Hunter came out.
Sure, PSP back had more games and its hardware sales were better, but the principle still holds. At that time, so many people were surprised PSP was selling so well "with no games". It became a meme at that time and most people gave as reasons its additional video and music capabilities.

Shortly, my reasoning is very simple. If Vita keeps selling 10k with such an extremely poor line-up, well, I wonder what will happen when some significant release will come out. Chances of the system to become an important player in the future is high. Even with so little gaming outlook. It's based on the past and current trends and thus it is a likely scenario.

That's why I'm surprised it keeps selling above 10k. It's a good surprise. They system is able to survive like that in the emptiness; it will absorb PSP's market once the games will be there.
translation:

i was really poor and i could barely manage to bring home enough money to let my children survive, then i won the lottery.

now my kid left the house and got married, unfortunately his job sucks and he's even earning less money then i did.
But i won the lottery when i was poor, my kid is gonna win the lottery as well, why should i worry?


ps:
i don't think vita is doomed, but what you wrote is just wishful thinking...
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
Why do I have this weird impression we have the same discussion for Vita every week with the same arguments.
 

jman2050

Member
May 18, 2005
31,847
0
0
More importantly, you missed my implication. That is, Vita following the same steps of PSP.

Dunno if you remember, but when DS started to explode in Japan, back in 2005, PSP kept selling in the shadows till a certain title names Monster Hunter came out.
Sure, PSP back had more games and its hardware sales were better, but the principle still holds. At that time, so many people were surprised PSP was selling so well "with no games". It became a meme at that time and most people gave as reasons its additional video and music capabilities.

Shortly, my reasoning is very simple. If Vita keeps selling 10k with such an extremely poor line-up, well, I wonder what will happen when some significant release will come out. Chances of the system to become an important player in the future is high. Even with so little gaming outlook. It's based on the past and current trends and thus it is a likely scenario.

That's why I'm surprised it keeps selling above 10k. It's a good surprise. They system is able to survive like that in the emptiness; it will absorb PSP's market once the games will be there.
10K is a very very bad number. It's not so much surviving as it is sellin to its near-minimal demand.
 

Erethian

Member
Jan 20, 2010
3,253
0
0
PSP was doing 20-25k during the same period which shows that Vita is doing terrible terrible numbers
Actually it's worse, because PSP was doing above 40k a week during the March of '05, then it dropped to 30-35k in April, and it wasn't until the middle of May that it was doing 20k a week.

Which is why after 15 weeks the PSP already had a LTD of 1,062,372, whereas the Vita hasn't even broken 700k yet. And at this rate it'll take nearly two months just to achieve that.
 

Vic

Please help me with my bad english
Mar 2, 2006
19,525
0
0
Why do I have this weird impression we have the same discussion for Vita every week with the same arguments.
We sure do. Personally, I'm done trying to discuss & elaborate the current predicament of the Vita. I'm waiting for the upcoming games shows like the E3 or TGS. What will be announced then will speak volume about the status of the platform.